WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

Transition of WCRP projects beyond 2013: SPARC legacy and issues

Christian von Savigny (IUP Bremen) on behalf of SPARC

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

• Chemistry-climate model validation (CCMVal)

- Coordination of ongoing contribution of stratosphere-resolving chemistry-

climate models to WMP/UNEP ozone assessment and IPCC ARs

- Quantification of model uncertainties

• Assessment of key uncertainties in stratospheric and upper tropospheric measurements

• Linking various scientific communities:

- measurement and modeling communities

- stratospheric research community and the climate modeling (as in IPCC) community

- synergy between organizations (WCRP, IGBP, …)

SPARC overarching activities to be maintained beyond 2013:

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

• Quantify the interaction between ozone recovery and climate change

• Investigate air quality aspects of the troposphere-stratosphere system- changes in tropospheric chemical composition caused by stratospheric

changes- increasing air traffic?

• Quantify the impact of solar variability (on all time scales) on climate- Dynamical and chemical response of middle atmosphere- Improve understanding of solar cycle and QBO

• Foster stratospheric science in climate mitigation and adaptation

• Elucidate the role of polar regions in global climate

• Quantify effects of future stratospheric change on the global carbon cycle - Stratospheric changes will affect southern annual mode, effect on CO2 uptake

• Critically asses Geoengineering- Thourough assessment of chemical effects of SO2 injected into stratosphere

Key science questions beyond 2013

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

Key aspects for model improvement

• Improve climate models via data assimilation - improve gravity wave drag parameterizations

• Improve climate models via use of mesoscale/cloud-resolving models

- Focus on TTL (tropical tropopause layer)

• Quantify the impact of vertical domain and resolution in the middle atmosphere in climate modelling

- Do limited vertical resolution and vertical range compromise climate predictability?

• Improve decadal stratospheric ozone predictability

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

Adapted from

Steinbrecht et al., IJR

S [2009]

Key observational issues

Continuity of stratospheric ozone profile satellite record in jeopardy

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010Courtesy of J.-C. Lambert (BIRA-IASB)Updated: September 2009

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

Key observational issues

Figure courtesy of D. Fussen [2010]

Number of space experiments

WOAP 4 meeting, Hamburg, 29 – 31 March 2010

• No scheduled European atmospheric profiler after Envisat (operational until 2013/2014 with 3 limb sensors)

• U.S. missions: OMPS-Limb on NPP (launch 2011), but no OMPS limb sounder on the following NPOESS satellites

• To our best knowledge there is no other scheduled and funded limb mission

• Possible solutions:- ALTIUS, a Belgian mission (PI Didier Fussen, BIRA) )- PREMIER, an Earth Explorer candidate mission (launch 2016- CASS, a mission currently discussed by CSA and NASA- SAGE III on ISS (no polar coverage)

• SPARC contributed to the CEOS ACC recommendation for a gap-filling mission

• Monitoring the evolution of O3 profiles (and related chemical species) during the ozone recovery phase is of key importance

Key observational issues