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Choices for Choices for the the Future Future A Presentation on the A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Alternative Transportation Futures Project Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications Forum Applications Forum Gainesville, Florida Gainesville, Florida October 19, 2001 October 19, 2001

Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

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Page 1: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Choices for the Choices for the FutureFuture

A Presentation on the A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Willamette Valley

Alternative Transportation Alternative Transportation Futures Project Futures Project

Transportation and Land Use Planning Transportation and Land Use Planning

Applications ForumApplications Forum

Gainesville, FloridaGainesville, FloridaOctober 19, 2001October 19, 2001

Page 2: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• What Prompted This Project?

• What were our Objectives?

• How did we carryout the Project?

• What did we Learn?

Page 3: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Origins of Oregon’s Land Use Origins of Oregon’s Land Use ProgramProgram

• Concerns over: Concerns over: – loss of farm and forest landloss of farm and forest land

– sprawlsprawl

– environmental impacts of growthenvironmental impacts of growth

• Senate Bill 100Senate Bill 100

Page 4: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Key Provisions of SB 100Key Provisions of SB 100

• 19 Planning Goals dealing with a 19 Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues including:range of issues including:– housing, transportation, urbanization, housing, transportation, urbanization,

farm and forest landfarm and forest land

• Establishment of Urban Growth Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB’s)Boundaries (UGB’s)

Page 5: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Beyond SB 100Beyond SB 100

• Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”

• Willamette Valley EffortsWillamette Valley Efforts– Partnership for Valley Future Conference Partnership for Valley Future Conference

(Oregon Progress Board)(Oregon Progress Board) - 1994 - 1994– Willamette Valley Transportation StrategyWillamette Valley Transportation Strategy - 1995 - 1995– Willamette Valley Livability ForumWillamette Valley Livability Forum - 1996 - 1996

Page 6: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium of Over 80 Membersof Over 80 Members

• Forum Purpose - Forum Purpose - Help Valley residents and Help Valley residents and decision-makers find and promote decision-makers find and promote solutions to growth and solutions to growth and development issues in the Valleydevelopment issues in the Valley

• Forum Goals:Forum Goals:• Share informationShare information• Make connectionsMake connections• Build a visionBuild a vision• Advise state and local officialsAdvise state and local officials

Page 7: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

OpportunityOpportunity

• Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research ConsortiumConsortium– Willamette River Basin Case StudyWillamette River Basin Case Study

• 1000 Friends of Oregon1000 Friends of Oregon– Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research ProjectWillamette Valley Alternative Futures Research Project

• ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model ODOT’s Development of Statewide Model

Alternative Transportation Futures Project

Page 8: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

PurposePurpose

2) Identify policy choices 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth future impacts of growth on transportation.on transportation.

1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

Page 9: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Guided by a 14-member ProjectGuided by a 14-member ProjectSteering CommitteeSteering Committee

Jon ChandlerJon Chandler, , OBIA OBIA

Chris HagerbaumerChris Hagerbaumer,, OTRANOTRAN

Bob CortrightBob Cortright, , DLCDDLCD

Gary JohnsonGary Johnson, , ODOTODOT Ed GallagherEd Gallagher,, Governor's Comm. Governor's Comm.

Dev. OfficeDev. Office

Craig GreenleafCraig Greenleaf, , ODOTODOT

Robert LibertyRobert Liberty, , 1000 Friends of Oregon 1000 Friends of Oregon Bob RussellBob Russell,, OHUAOHUA

Richard Brandman, Metro

Susan Brody, WVLF

Marcia KelleyMarcia Kelley, , MWACTMWACT

Tom SchwetzTom Schwetz, , LCOGLCOGMike Propes, Mike Propes, Polk County Polk County Joan Baker, EPA

Page 10: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

ApproachApproach

• Used state-of-art computer modeling Used state-of-art computer modeling techniquestechniques

• Simulated effects of alternative land use Simulated effects of alternative land use and transportation policies over the next and transportation policies over the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a wholeas a whole

Page 11: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Integrated StatewideIntegrated StatewideComputer ModelComputer Model

Analytical tool to help Analytical tool to help understand complex understand complex interactions among interactions among Oregon’s economy, land Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and use patterns, and transportation systemtransportation system

Page 12: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Scope of Integrated ModelScope of Integrated Model• Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon

such as the effects of:such as the effects of:– Land use and transportation policies on population and employment

distributions;– Land use on travel behavior;– Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and land use;– Transit investments on highway use; and– Changes in the state’s population and economy on transportation

and land use.

Page 13: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

122-Analysis Zone Structure122-Analysis Zone Structure

Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips.

Page 14: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Economic Submodel Calculates Economic Submodel Calculates overall economic activityoverall economic activity

Page 15: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Location Submodel Allocates Location Submodel Allocates population and employment growthpopulation and employment growth

AB

C

Page 16: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Transportation Submodel Calculates travel Transportation Submodel Calculates travel resulting from movement of goods/svcsresulting from movement of goods/svcs

Page 17: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Policy Choices ConsideredPolicy Choices Considered

• Land available for development

• Investments in highways and transit

• Cost of driving

Page 18: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Evaluated Seven ScenariosEvaluated Seven Scenarios• Created scenarios with distinct Created scenarios with distinct

differences to facilitate evaluation of differences to facilitate evaluation of resultsresults

• Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5-year incrementsyear increments

• Used same statewide population and Used same statewide population and employment forecastsemployment forecasts

Page 19: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Framework for ScenariosFramework for ScenariosNo Action

Mile Tax

Compact Dev

Transit

& Hwy

Hybrids 1&2

Land Use Measures

Dem

and

Managem

ent

Sys

tem

Impr

ovem

ents

Page 20: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

What have we What have we learned ?learned ?

Page 21: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

There’s No Silver BulletThere’s No Silver Bullet

Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels.

Page 22: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

We can have an effect on just how crowded We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead.highways will become in years ahead.

Page 23: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.

Average Willamette Valley Traffic Congestion Between Cities

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Pe

rce

nt I

ncr

ea

se O

ver

20

00

Le

vels

No Action

Compact

Highway

Transit

Tax

Hybrid 1

Hybrid 2

Page 24: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

• Transit:– Transportation pricing increases transit ridership.– Increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit

encourages more use.

• Freight:– The hybrid approach also provides the greatest benefit for

truck freight mobility– Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a greater

extent than passenger travel.

Other Key FindingsOther Key Findings

Page 25: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Effects on Population and Effects on Population and Employment DistributionEmployment Distribution

Page 26: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities.

Page 27: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities.

Page 28: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Overall FindingsOverall Findings• No single approach (more efficient land use, No single approach (more efficient land use,

infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced combination of these approaches (Hybrids).combination of these approaches (Hybrids).

• The model results confirm the interconnection The model results confirm the interconnection between the economy, land use and transportation between the economy, land use and transportation and reinforce the importance of regional approaches and reinforce the importance of regional approaches for transportation planning.for transportation planning.

Page 29: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Wrap-upWrap-up

• Process LessonsProcess Lessons

• CriticismsCriticisms

• Things to improveThings to improve

Page 30: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Process LessonsProcess Lessons

• Changes the Nature of the Planning QuestionChanges the Nature of the Planning Question

• Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s Difficulty exporting the “Aha”s – Process is ExperientialProcess is Experiential

• Brings home the limits of public policyBrings home the limits of public policy

• Value is in exploring broader causes and effectsValue is in exploring broader causes and effects

• Decision Decision aidingaiding, not decision , not decision makingmaking

Page 31: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

CriticismsCriticisms

• Complex relationships defy modeling for current Complex relationships defy modeling for current conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole statestate

• Highly abstracted results are easily Highly abstracted results are easily misused/misunderstood by interest groupsmisused/misunderstood by interest groups

• Avoids more difficult and detailed planning Avoids more difficult and detailed planning needed in the short runneeded in the short run

Page 32: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

Alternative Transportation Futures: Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability ForumA Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

Effort currently under way to improve robustness of statewide model by:

Increasing geographic resolution (i.e., more analysis zones) and expanding detail of transportation network

Accounting for freight transported by rail and barge.

Adding capabilities to evaluate peak congestion periods

Representing economic interactions between Oregonand rest of the nation.

Next GenerationNext Generation

Page 33: Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications

For more information, For more information, visit the Willamette Valley visit the Willamette Valley

Livability Forum’s Livability Forum’s web site at:web site at:

www.wvlf.org/atf.htmlwww.wvlf.org/atf.html