CI Tracking Fall2011

8/3/2019 CI Tracking Fall2011

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October 2011

120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine

www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011

1

October 2010May 2010

Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey

~ Fall 2011~

Focus Groups Surveys Public Opinion Polling

120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101

Telephone: 207-772-4011 Fax: 207-772-7027

www.criticalinsights.com

Residents Views on Politics, the Economy,

& Issues Facing the State of MaineOctober 2011


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Introduction


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Background & Methodology

Each Spring and Fall, Critical Insights conducts the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registeredvoters which covers a variety of topics of interest to business, government, and thegeneral public.

In addition to general interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a publicservice) the survey also includes a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors.

For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 600 telephoneinterviews with randomly selected likely voters across the state between October 18-23, 2011.

With a sample of 600 interviews, results presented here have an associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered and likely voters; final data wasstatistically weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.

On average, the entire survey instrument including both general interest items and allsubscriber questions was 17 minutes in administrative length.

This document presents results of general interest questions which Critical Insightsmakes public to the media.

Where appropriate, comparisons of current results are made with findings from past iterationsof the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey.


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Issues Facing Maine &

Perceptions of the Economy


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Perspectives on Issues Facing the State of Maine

While concerns about the economy remain consistent with results observed in thepast several iterations of the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey,unemployment surpasses economic concerns and emerges as the most importantissue facing Maine at this time, cited by more than 4-in-10 residents.

Specific concerns about unemployment were noted by only 11% of Maine residentstwo years ago, but has since risen steadily to hit an 11-year high of 44% for the Critical

Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey. As was observed in previous iterations of the survey, despite continuing concerns,

unprompted mentions regarding the economy continue to hover at about half thefrequency noted in the Fall of 2008, when economic concerns reached a high of 59%.

Interestingly, while these concerns tend to be equally prevalent among all resident subgroups,broad concerns about the economy are significantly higher among more affluent Mainers($75,000 or more annually).

Taxation, education, and healthcare round out the top concerns mentioned byMainers, with results for taxation and healthcare concerns dropping when compared tothe previous wave of Critical Insights on Maine TM.

Taxation is an issue particularly with male residents, while those in the Northern region of thestate express more concern than others over education .


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Issues Facing the State of Maine

0

20

40

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80

100

P e r c e n t

Unemployment 7 11 13 15 19 19 24 26 27 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 30 30 44Economy 8 9 14 22 13 17 21 15 12 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35

Taxes 12 9 10 7 15 16 15 14 26 25 21 21 20 34 24 18 10 8 7 10 9 8 5 4

Health care 9 9 12 4 11 16 12 13 10 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3

Education 27 16 15 5 8 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4

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Fall'00

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In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? *

* Top responses shown.


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Perspectives on Near-Term Economic Concerns

When voters were asked to cite the specific economic concern that will becausing them the most worry over the next six months, the issue of job loss(mentioned by fully one-quarter of residents) rose to the top spot again as it had in

the Fall 2010 wave of Critical Insights on MaineTM

not surprisingly givencurrent concerns about unemployment as an overall issue facing Maine. Other chief financial concerns in the near term include the overall cost of living (18%)

remaining relatively stable with results observed in other recent waves of the survey and concerns about gas and utility prices (16%).

These results are a departure from what was observed in the Spring 11 survey, when ina bit of a reversal, concern over gas prices was 32% and concern over job loss was 17%. While results tend to be evenly distributed among resident subgroups, the issue of gas

and utility costs is of particular concern to less affluent residents and those who reside inNorthern Maine.

Similarly, when residents were asked specifically to note their level of concernover the next 12 months that they or someone else in the household might be outof work, nearly 3-in-10 claimed to be concerned.

Concern was most acute among Mainers with a lower socio-economic status.


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As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST?

15

7

5

11

12

12

20

32

4

5

5

10

7

32

19

17

5

6

8

9

13

16

18

25

0 20 40 60 80 100

Taxes

Education

Gov't spending/Debt

Health care

Economy

Price of gas/utilities

Cost of living

Job loss

Percent

Fall '11Spring '11Fall '10

Near-Term Economic Concerns

* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.


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How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job?

Concern Over Job Loss

53

59

52

16

15

19

31

26

29

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fall '10

Spr '11

Fall '11

Less concerned Neutral/Unsure Concerned


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Maine Residents Views on the Economy

In a noticeably negative shift from recent waves of Critical Insights on Maine TM ,only one-tenth of residents feel that the economy is doing better than it was 12months ago (down from 27% in the Spring 2011 survey), while 47% feel it isdoing worse (up from 35% in Spring 11).

The proportion of poll respondents saying the economy is about the same as it was ayear ago is comparable to results from recent waves of the survey.

Looking ahead to the coming year, nearly one-third of Mainers (30%) anticipatethings will improve comparable to results from the most recent surveys.

The proportion of residents expecting things to be worse in 12 months is almostidentical to Spring 11 results, showing a minor uptick since the Fall 2010 survey.

Pessimism about both the current and future state of the economy is highest amongresidents 45 years of age or older.

Residents overall sense of economic pessimism is also reflected in theirestimates of the timing for economic recovery, with fully two-thirds (67%) notingthat they believe the recession will last at least another two years.


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Current State of the Economy

0

20

40

60

80

100

P e r c e n t

Better 39 39 11 7 17 10 6 16 20 20 10 7 13 17 9 6 1 1 10 27 31 21 27 10

About the same 45 48 39 26 38 32 28 35 31 36 39 23 34 40 42 33 8 7 18 31 36 40 38 41

Worse 15 13 49 67 44 56 66 47 49 43 50 70 52 41 47 61 91 92 71 41 32 38 35 47

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Compared with 12 months ago , how would you describe the overall status of theeconomy? Would you say it is


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Future State of the Economy

0

20

40

60

80

100

P e r c e n t

Better 24 20 23 33 47 34 36 33 29 30 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 30

About the same 50 55 38 24 36 38 36 38 37 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41

Worse 23 17 37 41 14 26 25 27 31 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 20 19 20 24 25

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Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think theeconomy will be . . .


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How much longer do you think the current recession will last: Six months, 1 year, 2 years or More than 2 years?

Length of the Recession

5

3

40

26

23

3

7

2

42

23

21

5

7

3

44

23

18

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

DK/Refused

It's over

More than 2 years

2 years

1 year

Six months

Percent

Fall '11Spring '11Fall '10


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Maine ResidentsPersonal Household Financial Situation

Despite the economic downturn and employment concerns, Maine residents abilityto save a key indicator of personal and household financial health has remainedrelatively stable over the past two years and is nearly identical to Spring 11 results.

Only a small bloc of residents (12%) are saving more than they did last year, and theproportion of residents saving less hovers at 45%. Among different income brackets, lower-income households are finding it harder to save

than middle- and upper-income households; indeed, more than half (51%) of householdsmaking under $50k say they are saving less than they did last year.

Like personal savings, results for anticipated levels of holiday spending have alsoremained stable over time. Nearly half of residents polled (49%) suggest that their holiday spending this year will be

less than in 10; this is particularly true among lower- and middle-income residents. A comparable proportion of Mainers (45%) say they will be spending about the same

amount as last year, especially higher-income residents. Notably, very few residents claim that they will be spending more than last year during theupcoming holiday season (4%).


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Household Financial Situation: Personal Savings

0

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P e r c e n t

More 21 20 26 19 21 17 23 14 17 15 15 15 12 9 11 12 9 7 8 12 13 16 15 12 12

About the same 44 45 42 46 40 45 42 41 43 41 37 36 38 35 35 35 38 32 35 41 42 39 42 41 42

Less 35 35 31 35 39 38 35 45 40 44 48 48 49 56 54 52 51 60 56 45 44 42 42 45 45

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Compared to last year, would you say your household is putting more into personal savings, about the same amount, or saving less?


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Intended Holiday Spending

Thinking about the upcoming holiday season, are you planning to spend MORE than you did last year on holiday gifts, will you spend about the SAME as you did last year, or will you spend LESS than you did last year?

3

4

49

45

48

49

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Fall '10

Fall '11

More Same Less


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1 8


Observations on

National and State Politics


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Maine Residents Perspectiveson the Direction of the Nation Pessimism concerning the nations overall direction has intensified over the past six

months, both among Maine residents and the country as a whole. Indeed, only 19% of Maine residents and 17% of U.S. residents say the country is headed

in the right direction; by comparison, 66% of Mainers and 74% of U.S. residents say the

country is on the wrong track. Democrats and the youngest residents have the most positive outlook, while Republicans,Independents, and Mainers age 35 or older tend to be more pessimistic regarding thenations direction.

Maine residents are more optimistic about the direction of the state than they are thenation as whole, with fully 4-in-10 stating that the state is headed in the rightdirection (up 17 percentage points since last spring).

An equal proportion of residents (40%) feel that the state is heading in the wrong direction. Almost half of Mainers who state that Maine is going in the right direction attribute their

views to the job the Governor is doing. Among those who feel that that stat is headed in the wrong direction, 37% attribute their

views to the Governor and 31% to the bad economy and lack of jobs. It is interesting to note that while Democrats are more likely to feel that the nation is

heading in the right direction, Republicans are more likely to suggest that the state isheading in the right direction.


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Direction of the Nation: Maine vs. U.S.

45

59

44 47

33 37 3225

45

3017 19

40

3554

4259 47 59

60

52

45 74 66

156 2 11 8 16

915

3

25

915

0

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40

60

80

100

US Spring

'09*****

Maine

ResidentsSpring '09

US Fall

'09****

Maine

ResidentsFall '09

US Spring

'10***

Maine

ResidentsSpring '10

US Fall

'10**

Maine

ResidentsFall '10

US Spring

'11*

Maine

ResidentsSpring '11

US Fall '11

^

Maine

ResidentsFall '11

Right Direction Wrong track Unsure

All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Oct. 6-10, 2011*Source: AP-GfK Poll. May 5-9, 2011**Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll. Oct. 14-18, 2010***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14, 2010****Source: Washington Post/ABC News poll, Oct. 15-18, 2009

*****Source: CBS News poll, May 6-12. 2009


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Why do you say that?

6

9

13

19

24

30

0 20 40 60 80 100

Rich getting richer / Middle class

shrinking

Too much devoted tothings outside country

/ Wars

Quality of life notimproving

President / Politiciansnot doing the right

things

Congressdysfunctional /

Disunity / No focus

Bad economy / Lack of jobs

Percent

Reasons for Nation Heading inRight/Wrong Direction


Wrong Track(n=398)

10

20

24

34

0 20 40 60 80 100

Foreign Affairs goingwell

Economy improving

Feels optimistic

President / Politicians

trying to changethings

Percent

Right Direction(n=111)


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Direction of the State of Maine

All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

3430 30 23 23

40

59

52 49 62

45

40

717 21

15

3119

0

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40

60

80

100

Spring '09 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '11

Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know


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2 3

Why do you say that?

5

7

8

9

31

37

0 20 40 60 80 100

Disunity / No focus

Quality of educationdiminishing

Quality of life notimproving

Regulation / Taxes

Bad economy / Lack of jobs

Disagree withGovernor

Percent

Reasons for State Heading inRight/Wrong Direction


Wrong Track(n=237)

11

15

19

48

0 20 40 60 80 100

Feels optimistic

Economy improving

More jobs becomingavailable

Government /

Governor gettingthings to work

Percent

Right Direction(n=243)


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Maine Residents Views on President Obama

President Obamas favorability ratings among Maine residents is the lowest it hasbeen during his Presidency (43%).

Maine residents favorability toward the President is markedly lower than the nationalresults (54%).

About 7-in-10 Democrats (71%) have a favorable view of the president, compared to three-quarters of Republicans (76%) who have an unfavorable view.

Only 36% of Maine residents have a positive view of how the President is handlingthe economy and more than half (54%) disapprove, similar to national results.

Also on par with the country as a whole, half of Mainers polled do not approve of how the President is handling taxes.

Again, approval of the Presidents performance is closely tied to political party affiliation.


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Presidential Favorability Ratings: Maine vs. U.S.

66 61 56 56 55 47 53 52 54 43

2925 37 29

4139

4233

4445

514 7 15

412

515

211

0

20

40

60

80

100

USSpring

'09****

MaineResidentsSpring '09

US Fall'09***

MaineResidents

Fall '09

USSpring'10**


USSpring'11*


US Fall'11 ^

MaineResidents

Fall '11

Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/refused

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama?

^ Source: ABC-GfK poll, Oct. 13-17, 2011

*Source: Daily Kos poll, April 28-May 1, 2011

** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 3-6, 2010

*** Source: Daily Kos poll, Oct. 19-22, 2009

**** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 18-21, 2009


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2 6

43

46

37

43

35

36

46

43

58

44

61

54

11

10

5

13

4

10

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

US Spring '10**

Maine Residents Spring '10

US Spring '11*

Maine Residents Spring '11

US Fall '11 ^

Maine Residents Fall '11

Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling theeconomy?

Assessment of Presidential Job Performance: Economy

^ Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 2, 2011

* Source: NBC News poll, May 5-7, 2011

** Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 5-12, 2010


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2 7

42

39

51

49

7

12

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

US Fall '11 *

Maine Residents Fall '11

Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Barack Obama is handling the taxes?

*Source: ABC News/Washington News poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 2, 2011

Assessment of Presidential Job Performance:Taxes


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Views Toward Israel/Palestinians

Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

* Source: CNN/ORC poll, Sept. 23-25, 2011

40

35

41

25

19

39

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

US Fall '11 *

Maine Residents Fall'11

Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused


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2 9

Approval Ratings for Governor Paul LePage

Nine months into his tenure as Governor, 47% of Mainers express approval for the job Governor LePage is doing as Governor up 16 percentage points from theSpring 2011 Critical Insights on Maine TM survey fully 4-in-10 disapprove of the

job the Governor is doing. While 71% of Republicans approve of Governor LePages job performance, 62% of

Democrats disapprove. Independents views of the Governor are mixed. Men, less highly educated Mainers, and the youngest residents polled are more likely

than other subgroups to approve of the job the Governor is doing.

Conversely, women, college graduates, and residents who are 35 years of age or older aremore likely to disapprove of the Governors job performance.


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Stated Voter Political Affiliation

In what political party are you registered to vote? Percent of Sample

Democrat 33%Republican 31

Independent 31

Dont know/Refused 4


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3 3

Party That Best Serves Interests

38

39

37

33

31

35

21

22

20

5

4

3

3

4

5

0 20 40 60 80 100

Spring '10

Spring '11

Fall '11

Democrats Republicans Neither Both Don't know/Refused

Which of the following two political parties Democrat or Republican do you feel best serves your interests?


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Stated Voter Plans for November 8 th

Vote in person86%

Earlyvoting/absentee11%

Don't

know/Refused3%

Do you think youll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in/absentee ballot?


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Presidential Race

Consistent with Presidential approval ratings noted previously in this report, morethan 4-in-10 Mainers say they would vote for Barack Obama over Republicancandidates Mitt Romney or Rick Perry if the 2012 election were held today.

Results for President Obama are nearly identical to national results, but Mainers tend tobe more indecisive than the country as a whole rather than claiming they would vote foreither Romney or Perry.

Older and more highly educated Mainers are significantly more likely than others to saythey would vote for President Obama.


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November 8 th Referendum Questions

Overall, just over half of Maine voters polled (51%) report that they intend to voteYes on Question 1, that would repeal the requirement that new voters register atleast two business days prior to an election.

Support for this ballot question is highest among college-educated residents andDemocrats.

Of the remaining voters, 43% state that they intend to vote No and 6% areundecided.

Results are mixed on Question 4 which would amend the Constitution of Maine tochange the years of redistricting the Maine Legislature, congressional districts, andcounty commissioner districts.

Indeed, 32% of voters say they intend to vote Yes, 33% would vote No, and 34% areundecided.

Support for this ballot question is highest among men and Mainers with a higher socio-economic status.


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Stated Voter Intentions on Question 1

Do you want to reject the section of Chapter 399 of the Public Laws of 2011 that requires newvoters to register to vote at least two business days prior to an election? If you were voting today,

please tell me how you vote: Yes or No.

Yes51%No

43%

Don't know6%


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4 0

Stated Voter Intentions on Question 4

Do you favor amending the Constitution of Maine to change the years of redistricting the Maine Legislature, congressional districts and county commissioner districts after 2013 from 2023 and every 10 th year thereafter to 2021 and every 10 th year thereafter? If you were voting today, please tell me how you vote: Yes or No.

Yes32%

No33%

Don'tknow/Refused

35%


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4 1

October 2010

4 1

May 2010

Sample Profile


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Respondent Gender and Age

Male47% Female

53%

Into which of the following categories does your age fall? Percent of Sample

18 to 34 13%

35 to 44 29

45 to 54 21

55 to 64 20

65 to 74 11

75 and older 6


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Tenure of Residency in Maine

How many years have you lived in the State of Maine? Percent of Sample

Less than 5 years 2%

5 to 10 years 8

More than 10 years 88


45/45


4 5

Socio-Economic Dimensions:Education and IncomeWhat is the highest level of education you have completed? Percent of SampleSome high school or less 4%Graduated high school 23Technical/Vocational/Community College 4

Some college 20Graduated college 34Graduate school 14

Which of the following categories best describes your total household income before taxes last year? Percent of Sample

Less than $15,000 5%

$15,000 to $24,999 6

$25,000 to $34,999 9

$35,000 to $49,999 13$50,000 to $74,999 22

$75,000 or more 29

Dont know/Refused 16

Documents

CI Tracking Fall2011