Climate Change Adaptation and Governance

Climate Change Adaptationand Governance

Isagani R. SerranoPRRM President

Presentation at the Miriam-ESI Seminar 30 May 2011

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Adapting to climate change • Changing from business as usual to adjust to climate change and

variability • Assessing vulnerabilities and capacities• What’s our adaptive capacity level---HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW? • HIGH adaptive capacity means (UNDP): >a stable and prosperous economy; >a high degree of access to technology at all levels; >well-delineated roles and responsibilities for implementation of

adaptation strategies; >systems in place for the national, regional and local dissemination

of climate change and adaptation information; and >an equitable distribution of access to resources.

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Governance

• Transparency – open book, freedom of information

• Accountability – deliver on your promises, face the consequences of your decisions

• Predictability - governed by rules, not arbitrary

• Participation – governance much too big to be left to government alone


Climate crisis as bad governance Beneath every crisis, bad governance.• Outright violation of rules and principles• Reneging on commitments• Unregulated market forces• Lowering environmental safeguards and standards.• Word not matched by action.• Poor implementation, poor outcomes.• Ignoring people, local communities.• Inefficiency, corruption, lack of accountability.


What we’re adapting to…


Too big to govern?


Over 40 billion of this up there.


How on earth can this be done?

• 47 billion tons of CO2 up for reduction• Must peak by 2015• Must come down to 44 billion by 2020• Down to under 35 billion by 2030• Further down to below 20 billion by 2050• For a 50:50 chance to keep GW at <2°C

• Numbers are from Sir Nicholas Stern, British MP and economist.


Skeptics don’t buy it


Who really knows for sure?

• Both CC believers and skeptics agree there’s global warming, thus the need to adapt.

• Even with the best knowledge, we know only so much about how nature will behave.

• But we do know humanity had done itself and nature a great injustice, and we know what needs to change.

• And justice is at the heart of the climate issue.


Decision scenarios

• Do nothing, more-of-the-same, or business-as-usual (BAU)• More economic (A) or more environmental (B); and global (1)

or regional (2). Differing assumptions on population growth.• Four storylines and several combinations: e.g., A1 is

economic/global; B1 environmental/global; A2 economic/regional; B2 environmental/regional.

• There are 40 such scenarios and timelines of 100 years which mean nothing if you’re worried about what to grow or harvest tomorrow.

• Need to be downscaled to be useful to local communities.


Principles to go by

• Common but differentiated responsibilities – we’re

all responsible but some must answer for more.• Polluters pay – if you pollute you pay, if you pollute

more you pay more.• Precautionary – if you’re not sure about the impact

and consequences of what you do, don’t.• Sustainable development—that which meets needs

of both present & future generations.


To what end? happiness?


Governance can’t miss this


How we know we’re getting there?• Indicators are ‘signs’ that tell us where/how things are

moving: baselines, endpoints, and milestones in between

• Design your own, based on what you value most.• References: Human Development Index (HDI),

Millennium Development Goals (MDG), human rights indicators, minimum basic needs (MBN), community-based monitoring system (CBMS), quality of life index (QLI), sustainable development indicators (SDI)

• How to make CCA and governance indicators compatible?


Addressing our vulnerabilities

• POVERTY: more poor people now than when we set off on the MDG track in 2001

• INEQUALITY: rich getting richer, wealth generated by growth enjoyed mostly by the rich

• CONTINUING ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION: >despite good laws, eg, on ecological waste mgt, clean

air, clean water, RE, climate & DRR, organic agriculture, etc.

>despite expansion of forest cover (‘net green’)

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How do we manage this?

• Two typhoons w/in one month in 2009 left the Philippines with: about 1000 dead, thousands homeless, a damage totaling US$4.38 billion or 206 B pesos. Annual average of direct damage (1970-2006)---about US$305 million or 15 B pesos. A baseline of reconstruction, not development.

• How much change can we endure---1°, 2°, 3° C---and for how long? How many super typhoons and floods can we survive, and at what cost? What would it take to adjust to CC impacts?


Governance…as if climate matters

• Governance for sustainable development• Governance of commons (climate, oceans) &

common goods (education, health, peace & security)

• Resource governance/management: Regeneration of depleted resources & reduction of CO2 emissions/pollution

• Integrating Agenda 21 & MDGs into plans & budgets at the national & local levels


Lessons from PA21

• Philippine Agenda 21 – translation of global Agenda 21 (Rio Earth Summit 1992) into a national sustainability plan in the long, medium, and short (annual) terms

• Philippine Council for Sustainable Development (PCSD) to oversee PA21 implementation


Lessons from PA21

• MTPDP, annual GAA, investment & national expenditure plans, AS USUAL

• Policy incoherence: >PA21 and MTPDP and SONA ‘marching orders’ not

in sync; >policy-action gap; >‘money not where the mouth is’• No connection between PA21 and local development

plans


Lesson from PA21

• Institutional issues: >PCSD ---overseeing what? PCSD=NEDA? >PCSD---a super Cabinet? >PCSD---a talking shop? >PCSD---just one more of the same platforms

for non-state actor participation?


Lessons from MDGs

• Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – Millennium Summit 2000, Millennium Declaration, a ‘synthesis’ of international commitments to protect HR and enlarge freedoms

• MDGs: a commitment to end global poverty • MDGs: 8 goals, 18 targets, 48 indicators (more

targets & indicators added later)


Lessons from MDG

• MTPDP ---MDG-insensitive, basically an economic growth plan

• MDG-insensitive SONAs • MDG-insensitive GAAs• After nearly a decade under one regime: MORE POOR FILIPINOS THAN WHEN WE STARTED

ON THE MDGs


Lessons from MDGs

• Official MDG Reports – consistently rosy & hardly self-critical

• Shadow Reports 1993, 1995, 1997 (Midterm 7.7.7.), 2010 (MDG+10)---Social Watch Philippines

• MDG10 Shadow Report ---critical baseline for consideration in planning and budgeting


And now…CCA

• Urgent task: ADAPTATION PLAN >Strategy Framework by April 2010 >National Climate Change Action Plan

(NCCAP) by October 2010 >Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP)

starting 2010• CCC (Climate Change Commission) = NEDA+?


CCA & MTPDP

• Philippine Strategy Framework and Action Plan on Climate Change:

>addressing vulnerabilities & risks, >building high adaptive capacity >toward achieving sustainable development• NAPCC as MTPDP or NAPCC as guide template

for MTPDP?


Integrating MDGs and CCA into national development

Addressing the dilemma of “Growth without development” Poverty-and-climate-sensitive plans and budgets:• Ensuring basic capabilities: universal education & health care• Ensuring food security through sustainable agriculture, forestry, fisheries • Green jobs and full employment• Shifting to renewable/sustainable energy systems.• Clean production and clean consumption (full cycle greening) • Ecological waste management• Population levels consistent with carrying capacity• Community participation in addressing environmental problems and finding local

solutions• People’s participation at all levels• Budgeting and financing enough for these priorities


Minding the budget


Or else…


Documents

Climate Change Adaptation and Governance