SCENARIOS

The project is part of the International Climate Initiative (ICI), which is supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.

FACTSHEET SERIES PRODUCED BYSANBI, DEA and GIZ in consultations with relevant sector stakeholders

OTHER FACTSHEETS IN THIS SERIES:

• ClimateChangeAdaptation–SADC• ClimateChangeAdaptation–ClimateInformationandEarlyWarningSystems• ClimateChangeAdaptation–DisasterRiskReductionandManagement• ClimateChangeAdaptation–HumanSettlements• ClimateChangeAdaptation–FoodSecurity• ClimateChangeAdaptation–Economics

• Prioritisingresource-centricnationaldevelopmentplanning,centredaroundmovingdevelopmentfocustotheareasofnatural resource (water, soil, biodiversity) availability and the currentthinkingofmovingresourcestotheareasofeconomicdevelopment.

4. Policy and research recommendationsThereisstillahighdegreeofuncertaintyastowhetherSouthAfricafacesawetterordrierfutureoverall,andhowrainfallchangewillbedistributedacrossthecountry.Projectedchangesinseasonalrainfallpatternsalsoremainhighlyuncertain.Flexibilityisthereforenecessarytoadapttotheuncertainty of the rainfall projections, both in the direction and rate of change,especiallyincurrentinstitutionsandorganisations.No-andlowregretadaptationmeasurescanbeusefullyimplementedimmediately.Thesewillhavebenefitsregardlessofthedirectionofclimatechangeprojections.Closingthe‘developmentgap’andinvestinginecologicalinfrastructureareexamplesofsuchshort-term,lowregretoptions.

Strategicpolicyrecommendations:

• Integrateandconsider(inSouthAfrica’smitigationandadaptationnegotiations)thewayoutcomesofthenegotiationscouldimpactthenationalandglobaleconomy.

• Implement robust and integratedmonitoring systems to reduceuncertaintyregardingclimatechange.

• Introduceadvancedearlywarningsystemstomitigatetheprojectedincreaseofextremeeventsandsupporteffectivedisasterriskreduction.

• Improveunderstandingofthetrade-offsinwaterallocationtopromotesustainable, and more economically effective, water use.

• Expandinitiativessuchasmaintenanceofecologicalinfrastructureto help to maintain, support and sustain livelihoods and ecosystem

services. • Mainstreamclimateresilienceintourban,coastalandruralsettlement

design.• Understandtrade-offstoensurefoodsecurityinSouthAfrica.• Buildrobustinfrastructurewithanunderstandingofthelong-term

versusshort-termcostsandbenefits.• Improveunderstandingoflabourandcapitalflexibilityintheeconomy.• Increaseeducationandcapacitybuildingastheyarecornerstone

adaptation responses necessary at all levels and in all sectors.• Coordinatealllevelsofgovernmentverticallyandhorizontallyinthe

contextofclimatechange.• Exploreinnovativefinancingmodelstosupportdeliverofappropriate

adaptation responses. • Supportintegrationofclimatechangeconsiderationswithinnational

planninginitiativessuchastheNationalDevelopmentPlan.

Researchrecommendations:

• Developmorerobustandconsistenttoolsforassessingclimatechangeimpactsandintegratedeconomiccost/benefitofadaptationinkeysectors of the economy.

• Buildontheexistingsetofeconometrictoolsforassessingcross-sectorallyintegratedeconomicimpactsofclimatechangetoinvestigatealternativeadaptationanddevelopmentscenariosatnationalandsub-national levels.

• Investinadditionaldroughtandfloodmodelling.• Enhance approaches to modelling economically autonomous

adaptationresponsesthatarebasedonflexibilityoflabourandcapitalinvestment.

• Improve the systematic production of climate projections andcomparisonsbetweendifferentmethodologicalapproaches.

• Develop approaches for resource-centric national developmentplanning.

CLIMATECHANGEADAPTATIONSCENARIOSAdaptation Scenarios Factsheet Series, Factsheet 7 of 7

THE LONG-TERM ADAPTATION SCENARIOS FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMME (LTAS) FOR SOUTH AFRICA TheLTAS(April2012–June2014)aimstorespondtotheSouthAfricanNationalClimateChangeResponseWhitePaper(2011)byundertakingclimatechangeadaptationresearchandscenarioplanningforSouthAfricaandtheSouthernAfricansub-region.

The Adaptation Scenarios Factsheet Series has been developed tocommunicatekeymessagesemergingfromLTASPhase2(June2013–June2014)topolicy-anddecision-makers,researchers,practitioners and civil society. The Factsheet Series complements theLTASPhase2technicalreports.Forfurtherdetailsonthisfactsheet,seetheLTASPhase2fulltechnicalreportentitledLong Term Adaptation Scenarios for South Africa: Together Developing Adaptation Responses for Future Climates.

1. IntroductionTTherealityofSouthAfrica’svulnerabilitytoclimatevariabilityandchangeisincreasinglyapparent.AirtemperaturesinSouthAfricahaveincreasedatleast50%morethantheglobalannualaverageof0.65°Coverthe lastfivedecades,raisingtheveryrealpossibility that inaworldof>2°Coftemperaturechange,SouthAfricacouldexperienceschangesof>3°C.Sustainedwarmingandincreasingrainfallvariabilityovertheshort-term(nextdecade)willhaveincreasinglyadverseeffectsonmanysectorsofSouthAfrica’seconomyintheabsenceofeffectiveadaptationresponses.Earlyimpactswill largelybefeltbythepoor.Subsistencefarmersandthosedependentonrain-fedagriculturewillbesignificantlyimpactedbyincreasingtemperaturesanddryingtrends.Similarly,theincreasingfrequencyofextremeweathereventsislikelyto have a disproportionate impact on the poorest in society (rural and urban),amplifyingexistingsocialinequalities.

An effective response to the risks created by climate variability and changewouldbeusefullybasedonanunderstandingoftherangeofadaptation measures available for various adaptation scenarios, as well as the institutional vulnerability and capacity to address these risks.LTASPhase2foundthatSouthAfrica’sfutureclimatecanbeseparatedintothreescenarios:warmerandwetter;warmeranddrier;and hotter. Each scenario is characterised with its own climate impacts. Allshowgreatervariabilityinclimate,thepossibilityofextremeevents,

andfluctuationsinrainfallconditions.Thisdemonstratesthatclimatechangeisunpredictableandthatuncertaintyexists.

However,LTASPhase2alsoconcludedthatacrossallthethreescenariosexplored, increasingindividualandcommunityresiliencetoclimatechangecannotbeseparatedfrombasicdevelopmentalinterventions.Furthermore,itemphasisedthatfulfillingthedevelopmentalobjectivesofprovidingbasiclifeopportunitiesandimprovingthewelfareofthegeneralpopulationshouldbeamajorbuildingblockofanyresponsetoclimaticchange.OtherhighlevelmessagesemanatingfromLTASPhase2arelistedinBox1.

BOX 1: HIGH LEVEL MESSAGES FROM THE DEVELOP- MENT OF ADAPTATION SCENARIOS

• Therewillbeasignificantchangeinthenatureandscaleofadaptationrequiredifglobalmeantemperaturerisesmorethan2°C(roughlyequivalenttoanationaltemperatureincreaseof3°C).

• Balanceddevelopmentenableseffectiveadaptation i.e.ahealthy,educatedandfinanciallysecurepopulation,livingina sustainable environment will be better able to withstand and copewithextremeclimateevents.

• Adaptationmustfocusonvulnerablecommunities,astheyaremostatriskfromclimatechange.

• Adaptingtoanuncertainclimatefuturewithfiniteresourceswillresultintrade-offsintheinvestmentofresources.

• As the climate changes, systemic transformation and aparadigmshiftinthinkingwillbeneededinthemedium-andlong-term.

• ContingencyplanningforbothwetteranddrierclimatefuturesisrequiredinSouthAfrica.

• Climatechangehasbothpositiveandnegativeimplicationsfor national development pathways.

• Climatechangewilllikelyaccentuateinequality,underminingsocial justice and cohesion if South Africa does not adopt effective adaptation responses.

environmental affairs Environmental Affairs Department:

REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

Mr Shonisani Munzhedzi, Department of Environmental Affairs,ClimateChangeBranch,ChiefDirectorateAdaptation Tel:+27(0)123999170•Cell:+27(0)764000637•email:SMunzhedzi@environment.gov.za

Scenario 1

A warmer and but drier climate in South Africa (temperature increase of <3°C and reduced rainfall)

Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyanincreaseinthefrequencyofdroughtevents.Thelimitedavailabilityofwaterandtheimplicationsforwaterpricingbecomeakeydeterminantofeconomicanddemographicactivitydrivingtransition across South Africa. The affordability of water drives a transformation inapproachestoruraleconomicgrowth,waterefficienturbandesignandthedevelopmentofnewmodelsformanagingfoodsecurity.Demandforwaterin urban areas is driven by population increase, while demand for water in agricultureincreasesdramaticallywithirrigationneedsincreasingby15–30%indryareas.Withwaterincreasinglyexpensive,agriculturalproductionhasnochoicebuttoshifttohigh-valueexportgoodswhichcreatesfoodsecurityissuesforthemajorityofSouthAfrica.Ruraltownsexperiencede-populationasagriculturaljobsarelostintheshifttomoremechanisedandefficientexportcropproduction.Thisinturnacceleratesruraltourbanmigrationaswellasexacerbatesexistingsocialtensions.

• Thebenefitsofadaptingoutweighthecostsinthelongrun.

• Effectiveapproachestodisasterriskreduction,includingearlywarningsystems,yieldearlyreturnsoninvestmentacrossallsectors.

• Institutionsarecurrentlyunpreparedtoappropriatelymanageinfrastructureunderamoreextremeandvariableclimate.

• South Africa’s adaptation options are dependent on itsdevelopmentpathway,which is linkedtoglobalmitigationefforts.

2. ApproachAn adaptation scenario is a description of a suite of adaptation responses that maybeimplementedacrossarangeofsectors,inresponsetotheimpactsofclimatechange.Theyarecomplex,andareinformedbythemeetingoftworelatedscenarios–asetofclimatescenariosandasetofdevelopmenttrajectories.

To construct adaptation scenarios, a number of key inputs from both LTAS Phase1(includingtheclimatescenariosandadetailedpolicyalignmentreview)andPhrase2(includingstakeholderfeedbackandthefindingsofthetechnicalreports)weredrawnon.Phase1providedasetoffourrobustclimatescenariosbasedonclimatemodelling.Thiswascomplementedbyanumberofcross-sectoralstakeholderengagementsthatconsideredSouthAfrica’sfuturedevelopmenttrajectoriesanddefinedtwofundamentalscenarios–acollaborativedecarbonisingworldscenario,andacarbonisingscenario.This provided a sound basis on which to construct adaptation scenarios throughfurtherconsultationwithstakeholderstoobtainfeedbackandfinalisethefindings.ThisprocesswassupportedinitslaterstagesbyresultsfromdetailedeconometricmodellingthatwasundertakeninPhase2toexploretheimpactsofclimateshiftsonwater,infrastructureandagriculture.

BOX 2: SYSTEMATIC ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR A WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO

• Introducing effective early warning systems for drought tohelpcommunitiesandfarmersmanagetherisks,andsupportgovernmenttomobiliseemergencyresources.

• Reconceivingruraleconomicgrowththroughaparadigmshiftin the thinkingbehind rural agricultural areas, including thedevelopmentofagro-enterpriseclustersandvaluechains,andaddressingmarketconstraints.

• Aradicalre-thinkingofurbandesignbasedonwaterpreservationand efficiency, necessitating the use of new technologicalinnovationsandindigenousmethods.

• Shiftingbehaviouralchangeandpatternsofresourceproductionandconsumption,focusedonwaterconservationandfootprinting.

• Buildingfoodandenergybuffers.

• Restoring,protectingandmaintainingbiodiversityandecologicalinfrastructurethroughupscalingexistingandintroducingnovelapproaches.

Scenario 2

A warmer but wetter climate in South Africa (temperature increase of <3°C and increased rainfall)

Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyagreaterfrequencyofextremerainfallevents. Rural and urban infrastructure and property are threatened, and alreadyvulnerableinformalsettlementsinrural,peri-urbanandcoastalsettlementsareparticularlyaffectedasfloodingincreasesinfrequencyandseverity.Thesephenomenaadverselyaffecthumanhealth–standingwaterinawetterandwarmingenvironmentamplifiesthepotentialforthespreadofwater-bornediseasessuchascholeraordenguefever;andincreasederosionandsiltationfromextremerainfalleventshasanegativeeffectonthequalityandquantityofdrinkingwater.Theincreasingvariabilityofrainfallalsocreatesashiftingpatternofagriculturalproduction.Rurallivelihoodsdependentonastableclimatebecomeincreasinglyvulnerable.Floodresilienceandsociallysensitivesettlementsareprioritisedasinfrastructuredesignisre-thought.Simultaneously, approaches to conservation of natural resources evolve further,asdoinnovativeapproachestoincentivisingeffectiveecosystemmanagement.

Scenario 3

A hotter climate in South Africa (temperature increase of >3°C)

Thisscenarioischaracterisedbyadramaticriseintemperatures,increasingbyasmuchas5–8°CintheinteriorofSouthAfrica.Smallerbutstillsignificantrisesoccuratandaroundthecoast.Thereisasignificantshiftinthefrequencyofextremeweatherevents,variabilityinprecipitationandmoresignificantimpactsfromwildlandfiresandsea-levelrise.Tocopewiththisradicallynewandvariableclimate,thepredictivepowerofearlywarningsystemsisprioritisedastheweatherbecomeincreasinglyvolatile.Urbanspacesarere-configuredtopreservewaterandshieldSouthAfricansfromtheintenseheat.Approachestoorganisinglabourandconservationarefundamentallyre-thoughtastraditionalmodelsarenoteffectiveinasignificantlyhotterclimate.Inthefaceofsea-levelrise,managedretreatfromlesspopulatedcoastal areas is considered as a policy response. The intense heat and the increasingincidenceofextremeweathereventsmeanspeople,floraandfaunainSouthAfricaareincreasinglyunabletocope.

BOX 3: SYSTEMATIC ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR A WARMER/WETTER SCENARIO

• Introducingearlywarningsystemstopromoteproactiveadaptivemeasuresinthehousing,agriculture,healthandtransportsectors,fromgovernmenttocommunitytoindividualhouseholdlevels.

• Constructingrobustinfrastructure(roads,bridges,railwaysandbuilding)thatisabletowithstandextremeevents,andissupportedwherepossiblebyintactecologicalinfrastructure.

• Developingfloodresilientandsociallysensitivedesignofinformaland rural settlements, as well as urban areas, with a focus on defencesagainst thefailureofdrinkingwater,sanitationandtransport systems.

• Prioritisingconservationmanagementpracticesthatincentivisesustainable land management to support the building ormaintainingofecologicalinfrastructure.

• Developinganadaptiveand innovativeagriculturalsectorasregionssuitableforagriculturemayshift,providingconstraintsandopportunitiesforcropandlivestockfarming.

BOX 4: SYSTEMATIC ADAPTATION RESPONSES FOR A HOTTER SCENARIO

• Introducingappropriateearlywarningandresponsesystemsforwildlandfires,heatwavesandstormsurges.

• Radically shifting conservationmind-sets from a focus onmaintainingtheexistingmosaicoffloraandfaunaandmanagingtransitionandprioritisingresources.

• Heatproofingurbandesigninthefaceofacceleratedurbanizationand increased heat island affect.

• Changing environmental effects for South African labour,necessitatingnewlabourpracticessupportedbyappropriatelegislationand labourprotectionsas temperatures riseandworkingconditionschange.

• Introducingastrategicandcomprehensivecoastalmanagementstrategyassealevelsriseandstormsurgesbecomemorefrequentand severe.

• RegionallyintegratingthroughconstructivediplomaticnegotiationsacrossSADCtorealiseflexibleregionalpower,waterandfoodsystems.

3. Adaptation scenarios and responsesThe threeadaptationscenariosarenotdesigned tobeanexhaustivedescriptionofall thepossible impactsofclimatechangeonthesocio-economic landscape of South Africa. Instead, they provide a snapshot of the sectors that will be most directly impacted and the thematic issues that arise as a result. Each scenario also provides a description of the systemic adaptation responses that will be needed to respond to the theoretical climate futures.