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Climate change and birds:BTO research
Blaise Martay
• BTO monitoring
• Scottish climate change
• Present and future
• Effect of climate change on birds
• present and future
• Adaptations: actions and policy
Climate change and Birds
BTO Monitoring
Populations & Distribution:Bird AtlasBreeding Bird SurveyWetland Bird SurveySeabird Census (JNCC)
Demography:Ringing SchemeNest Record Scheme
Casual:Garden BirdwatchBirdTrack
Single species:Fulmar StudyHeronries SurveyNorfolk Bat SurveyProject Owl
BTO Monitoring
Populations & Distribution:Bird AtlasBreeding Bird SurveyWetland Bird SurveySeabird Census (JNCC)
Demography:Ringing SchemeNest Record Scheme
Casual:Garden BirdwatchBirdTrack
Single species:Fulmar StudyHeronries SurveyNorfolk Bat SurveyProject Owl
• Every year from 1994• Systematic surveys of > 3000
random 1km squares• Annual population indices• Trends from 1966 (with
predecessor CBC)• ~3000/year England• ~500/year Scotland
• Every 20 years from 1970• Systematic surveys that cover all
of UK• Used to create maps of
distribution and change
Climate change in Scotland
Temperature:+ 1°C over past 50 years+ 1.5°C in Spring
+ 0.9 – 4.5°C by the 2050s
Rainfall:+ 350 mm over past 50 years = +25%Most change in Winter
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Year
Sco
tla
nd
An
nu
al M
ea
n T
em
pe
ratu
re (
C)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
12
00
14
00
16
00
18
00
Year
Sco
tla
nd
An
nu
al M
ea
n R
ain
fall (
C)
What does 2°C mean to a bird?
Climate change in Scotland
2 weeks earlier breeding
80 km northwards
• Phenology shifts
• Range shifts
• Population trends
• Community changes
Climate change in Scotland
Phenology
Advances in timing of breeding
Crick et al. 1997. Nature 388:526
Species that have not changed their phenology are declining.
Phenology
Franks et al. 2018 Global Change Biology
Range shifts
Range shifts
Hickling et al. 2006 GCB 12: 450-455
Population trends
Population trends
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
inde
x
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
Year
Mam
mal
s
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Year
Bird
s
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Year
Aph
ids
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Year
But
terf
lies
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Year
Mot
hs
• Bird decline not largely driven by climate change
• 13/68 species: positive CC impact• 3/68 species: negative CC impact
• Cuckoo, Little Owl, Reed Warbler(Pearce-Higgins & Crick 2019 Bird Study)
Eglington & Pearce-Higgins 2012 PLoS ONE
Martay et al 2017 Ecography
Population trends
Cuckoo Willow warbler Scotland vs England
England ↓, Scotland ↑:CuckooTree PipitWillow WarblerMistle ThrushHouse MartinYellowhammerHouse Sparrow
England ↑, Scotland ↓:OystercatcherCoal Tit
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.2
0.6
1.0
1.4
(a)
% Woodland
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
0 5 10 15 20 25
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
(b)
% ScrubW
illow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
10 11 12 13 14
-0.4
0.0
0.4
(c)
BS temp (C)
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-0.1
0.1
0.3
(d)
Temp anomaly (mean 10C)
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
(e)
Temp anomaly (at mean 14C)
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
60 80 100 120
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
(f)
BS rain (C)
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
-20 0 20 40
0.5
50.6
00.6
5
(g)
Rain anomaly
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
(h)
Year
Willow
Warb
lers
(ln s
ite c
ount)
More research needed!
More impacted species:
• Secondary consumers
• Species of conservation concern
• Habitat specialists
• Cold-associated species: northern & upland
Community change
Predicting the future
Massimino et al. 2017 Clim. Res. 145: 117-130
Predicting the future
Massimino et al. 2017 Clim. Res. 145: 117-130
Predicting the future
Massimino et al. 2017 Clim. Res. 145: 117-130
• Declines in northern / upland species
• Declines in species of conservation concern
• Increases in southerly and invasive/colonist species
• Specific species assessments:
• E.g. Natural England Commissioned Report NERC175 – England
• Pearce-Higgins & Crick 2019
Predicting the future
Edmund Fellowes
• What is the problem (vulnerability assessment)?
• What are the solutions?
• Protected areas
• Wider countryside management
• Species management
Adaptation
Adaptation: Protected areas
Breeding seabirds
Johnston et al. (2013) Nature Climate Change 3:1055-1061
Wintering waterbirds
• Protected areas act as stepping-stones
• Can slow climate-related declines
• Balance between retaining currents species and encouraging colonisation
(Thomas & Gillingham 2015)
Adaptation: Protected areas
Adaptation: Wider countryside management
Northern species decline reduced with low-intensity land-use
Adaptation: Wider countryside management
Woodland birds:
Patch connectivity and area of woodland habitat may buffer weather-mediated declines.
Habitat provision:
Can Scottish reforestation targets offset predicted Willow warbler declines?
Adaptation: Species management
Carroll et al. (2011) Global Change Biology 17: 2291-3001
• Clear impacts of a temperature increase apparent:
• Range shifts, phenology, population trends
• On average climate change largely positive for UK birds
• Climate change losers: upland, northern and threatened
• Future changes
• Upland, northern and threatened species
• Spatial considerations needed for species assessments
Conclusions
• Upland and northern species particularly vulnerable
• Increasing colonists likely
• Often English or UK focussed research
• Spatially divergent population trends
• Less data for assessing trends and risks
• Big effort to increase BBS coverage of upland areas.
Scottish considerations