Climate change and birds:BTO research

Blaise Martay

• BTO monitoring

• Scottish climate change

• Present and future

• Effect of climate change on birds

• present and future

• Adaptations: actions and policy

Climate change and Birds

BTO Monitoring

Populations & Distribution:Bird AtlasBreeding Bird SurveyWetland Bird SurveySeabird Census (JNCC)

Demography:Ringing SchemeNest Record Scheme

Casual:Garden BirdwatchBirdTrack

Single species:Fulmar StudyHeronries SurveyNorfolk Bat SurveyProject Owl

BTO Monitoring

Populations & Distribution:Bird AtlasBreeding Bird SurveyWetland Bird SurveySeabird Census (JNCC)

Demography:Ringing SchemeNest Record Scheme

Casual:Garden BirdwatchBirdTrack

Single species:Fulmar StudyHeronries SurveyNorfolk Bat SurveyProject Owl

• Every year from 1994• Systematic surveys of > 3000

random 1km squares• Annual population indices• Trends from 1966 (with

predecessor CBC)• ~3000/year England• ~500/year Scotland

• Every 20 years from 1970• Systematic surveys that cover all

of UK• Used to create maps of

distribution and change

Climate change in Scotland

Temperature:+ 1°C over past 50 years+ 1.5°C in Spring

+ 0.9 – 4.5°C by the 2050s

Rainfall:+ 350 mm over past 50 years = +25%Most change in Winter

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Year

Sco

tla

nd

An

nu

al M

ea

n T

em

pe

ratu

re (

C)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

12

00

14

00

16

00

18

00

Year

Sco

tla

nd

An

nu

al M

ea

n R

ain

fall (

C)

What does 2°C mean to a bird?

Climate change in Scotland

2 weeks earlier breeding

80 km northwards

• Phenology shifts

• Range shifts

• Population trends

• Community changes

Climate change in Scotland

Phenology

Advances in timing of breeding

Crick et al. 1997. Nature 388:526

Species that have not changed their phenology are declining.

Phenology

Franks et al. 2018 Global Change Biology

Range shifts

Range shifts

Hickling et al. 2006 GCB 12: 450-455

Population trends

Population trends

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

inde

x

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

Year

Mam

mal

s

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Year

Bird

s

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Year

Aph

ids

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

Year

But

terf

lies

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Year

Mot

hs

• Bird decline not largely driven by climate change

• 13/68 species: positive CC impact• 3/68 species: negative CC impact

• Cuckoo, Little Owl, Reed Warbler(Pearce-Higgins & Crick 2019 Bird Study)

Eglington & Pearce-Higgins 2012 PLoS ONE

Martay et al 2017 Ecography

Population trends

Cuckoo Willow warbler Scotland vs England

England ↓, Scotland ↑:CuckooTree PipitWillow WarblerMistle ThrushHouse MartinYellowhammerHouse Sparrow

England ↑, Scotland ↓:OystercatcherCoal Tit

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

(a)

% Woodland

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

0 5 10 15 20 25

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

(b)

% ScrubW

illow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

10 11 12 13 14

-0.4

0.0

0.4

(c)

BS temp (C)

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.1

0.1

0.3

(d)

Temp anomaly (mean 10C)

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

(e)

Temp anomaly (at mean 14C)

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

60 80 100 120

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(f)

BS rain (C)

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

-20 0 20 40

0.5

50.6

00.6

5

(g)

Rain anomaly

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

(h)

Year

Willow

Warb

lers

(ln s

ite c

ount)

More research needed!

More impacted species:

• Secondary consumers

• Species of conservation concern

• Habitat specialists

• Cold-associated species: northern & upland

Community change

Predicting the future

Massimino et al. 2017 Clim. Res. 145: 117-130

Predicting the future

Massimino et al. 2017 Clim. Res. 145: 117-130

Predicting the future

Massimino et al. 2017 Clim. Res. 145: 117-130

• Declines in northern / upland species

• Declines in species of conservation concern

• Increases in southerly and invasive/colonist species

• Specific species assessments:

• E.g. Natural England Commissioned Report NERC175 – England

• Pearce-Higgins & Crick 2019

Predicting the future

Edmund Fellowes

• What is the problem (vulnerability assessment)?

• What are the solutions?

• Protected areas

• Wider countryside management

• Species management

Adaptation

Adaptation: Protected areas

Breeding seabirds

Johnston et al. (2013) Nature Climate Change 3:1055-1061

Wintering waterbirds

• Protected areas act as stepping-stones

• Can slow climate-related declines

• Balance between retaining currents species and encouraging colonisation

(Thomas & Gillingham 2015)

Adaptation: Protected areas

Adaptation: Wider countryside management

Northern species decline reduced with low-intensity land-use

Adaptation: Wider countryside management

Woodland birds:

Patch connectivity and area of woodland habitat may buffer weather-mediated declines.

Habitat provision:

Can Scottish reforestation targets offset predicted Willow warbler declines?

Adaptation: Species management

Carroll et al. (2011) Global Change Biology 17: 2291-3001

• Clear impacts of a temperature increase apparent:

• Range shifts, phenology, population trends

• On average climate change largely positive for UK birds

• Climate change losers: upland, northern and threatened

• Future changes

• Upland, northern and threatened species

• Spatial considerations needed for species assessments

Conclusions

• Upland and northern species particularly vulnerable

• Increasing colonists likely

• Often English or UK focussed research

• Spatially divergent population trends

• Less data for assessing trends and risks

• Big effort to increase BBS coverage of upland areas.

Scottish considerations