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November 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario Assessment Findings of the Climate Action Team

Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

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Page 1: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

November 20, 2008

California Environmental Protection Agency

California Air Resources Board

Climate Change Impacts on California

Scenario Assessment Findings of the Climate

Action Team

Page 2: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Achieving 2050 Target is Essential

CO2 TARGET400-450 ppm

2050 TARGET20% of 1990 EMISSIONS

CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE AT ~2 ºC

OBSERVED WARMING0.7 ºC ATMOSPHERE + 0.6 ºC OCEANS = 1.3 ºC

Page 3: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 E

mis

sion

(G

igat

ons

CO

2 E

/yea

r)

BAU FossilFuel

Actual emissions

Global CO 2 Emissions Growth Accelerating

IPCC LowestEmission Scenario

80% reductionfor climate

stabilization

Page 4: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

2-3% / year

15

18

21

24

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1% / year

Global Fossil Fuel Emission (Gigatons CO2E/year)

Global CO 2 Emissions Growth Accelerating

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO

2 E

mis

sion

(G

igat

ons

CO

2E/y

ear) BAU Fossil

Fuel

Actual emissions

IPCC LowestEmission Scenario

80% reduction & climate

stabilization

Page 5: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Cal/EPA-OEHHA, “Environmental Protection Indicators for California” (2002), www.oehha.ca.gov/multimedia/epic/Epicreport.htmlWesterling et al., “Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity”, Science (2006)

California Climate Impactsover the past 100 years

0

2

8

7

1

9

10

3

4

1.3ºF (0.7°C) higher temperatures

7 inch sea level rise

12% decrease in fraction of runoff between April

and July

snowmelt and spring blooms advanced

2 days/decade since 1955

4-fold increase in wildfire frequency (over 34 years)

678910

0

4

3

2

5

1

ºF

11°F

Page 6: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

By Governor Executive Order(2005)

Commissioned this peer-reviewed study (released in March 2006) of potential climate change impacts, and

Provided key scientific input to California’s landmark greenhouse gas reduction legislation, AB 32

www.climatechange.ca.gov

California Climate Change Scenarios

Assessment

Page 7: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Builds on 2006 study to:

1. Improve assessment of climate change impacts

2. Translate impacts into costs

3. Develop adaptation strategies

2008 Climate Action Team Scenarios Assessment

(work in progress)

Page 8: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Medium Warming Range

(5.5 – 8 °F)

6

7

0

2

1

Projected Climate Impacts on California, 2070-2099 (as compared with 1961-1990 )

Higher Warming Range

(8 – 10.5 °F)

8

9

10

Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

4

3

5

Lower Warming Range

(3 –––– 5.5 °F)

ºF

SierraSnowpack

Sea Level

Energy Demand

30-60% loss

70-80% loss

90% loss

6-14”

14-22”

22-30”

3-6%

10%

20%

Page 9: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Decrease in Sierra Nevada Snowpack2070-2099

Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

April 1 snow water equivalent (inches)~0 453015

Medium Warming RangeLower Warming RangeHistorical Average (1961-1990)

Page 10: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

2100 projected increase of 140 cm (55 inches)

in mean sea level

Coastline Changes

Page 11: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

2050

2050 Mission Beach Coastal Inundation in San Diego

Messner et al. (2008). Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego by 2050. Scripps Institute of Oceanography, PIERClimate Change Research Center, Draft white paper, CEC-500-2008.

Present

Page 12: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Optimal

Marginal

Impaired

Wine Country

Cool Coast

Central Coast

Central Valley

1961-1990 Levels

Lower Warming 3-5.5°°°° F

Medium Warming 5.5-8°°°°F

Higher Warming 8-10.5°°°°F

Decreasing Wine Grape Quality,

2070-2099

Increasing EmissionsHayhoe et al. “Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California”, PNAS (2004)

Page 13: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Public Health Concerns

Air QualityHeat Extremes

Wild Fire SmokeVulnerable Populations

Page 14: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog

Fresno, 2003-2006Riverside, 2003-2006

o F)

California Ozone Standard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

40 60 80 100 120

Daily Maximum Temperature (

Max

imum

8-h

r A

vera

ge O

zone

(pp

b)

Daily Maximum Temperature ( F)o

California OzoneStandard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

40 60 80 100 120

Max

imum

8-h

r A

vera

ge O

zone

(ppb

)

N. Motallebi (2008) Cal/EPA

Page 15: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Projected Ozone Response to Climate - 2050

Steiner et al., “Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California”, JGR (2006)Millstein D.E. and R. A. Harley (2008) Impact of Climate Change on Photochemical Air Pollution in Southern California. To be submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research.

Climate Penalty

CombinedEffects

-20

-10

0

10

20

% C

hang

e in

Ozo

neFresno Sacramento Bay Area South Coast

OzonePrecursorEmissionReduction

Page 16: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Climate Change Hotspots in U.S.

Diffenbaugh, N. S., et al. (2008). Climate change hotspots in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett.

Page 17: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Increase in Wildfires

Westerling and Bryant, “Climate change and wildfire in and around California:Fire modeling and loss modeling” (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

LOWER WARMING RANGE

MEDIUM WARMING RANGE

2035-2064 2070-2099

0

30

60

% C

HA

NG

E IN

EX

PE

CT

ED

MIN

IMU

MN

UM

BE

R O

F L

AR

GE

FIR

ES

PE

R Y

EA

R

Page 18: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

• Cost of unmitigated climate change� 2.5 to 5% of global economic

product in 2100 � For California: $270 to $540 billion

in 2100• Effective adaptation can limit the cost

of climate change impacts

Economic Impacts of Climate Change

Page 19: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

US

CO

2em

issi

ons

(Gig

aton

s C

O2

E/y

ear)

3.2% year

450 ppm CO 2 prompt

8.2% year

450 ppm CO 2 delay

Delay Requires Steep Emission Reductions

Doniger et al., “An Ambitious, Centrist Approach to Global Warming Legislation”, Science (2006)

Page 20: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

SummaryOverwhelming evidence human activities changing Earth’s climate

California already affected by climate change

Climate change increases air pollution control requirements

Early action makes targets easier to attain

Page 21: Climate Change Impacts on California · PDF fileNovember 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario

Acknowledgments

Scientists from:• Scripps Institution of

Oceanography• UC Berkeley• UC Davis• UC Santa Barbara• Santa Clara University• LBNL, LLNL• US Forest Service• Oregon State University• Union of Concerned

Scientists

State Agencies: • CEC PIER Program• Cal/EPA• Cal/Trans• CARB• CDF• CDFA• DPH• DWR• OEHHA• Resources