Climate Change Impacts on California 20, 2008 California Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board Climate Change Impacts on California Scenario Assessment

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  • November 20, 2008

    California Environmental Protection Agency

    California Air Resources Board

    Climate Change Impacts on California

    Scenario Assessment Findings of the Climate

    Action Team

  • Achieving 2050 Target is Essential

    CO2 TARGET400-450 ppm

    2050 TARGET20% of 1990 EMISSIONS

    CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE AT ~2 C

    OBSERVED WARMING0.7 C ATMOSPHERE + 0.6 C OCEANS = 1.3 C

  • 0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

    CO

    2 E

    mis

    sion

    (G

    igat

    ons

    CO

    2 E

    /yea

    r)

    BAU FossilFuel

    Actual emissions

    Global CO 2 Emissions Growth Accelerating

    IPCC LowestEmission Scenario

    80% reductionfor climate

    stabilization

  • 2-3% / year

    15

    18

    21

    24

    1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

    1% / year

    Global Fossil Fuel Emission (Gigatons CO2E/year)

    Global CO 2 Emissions Growth Accelerating

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    75

    90

    1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

    CO

    2 E

    mis

    sion

    (G

    igat

    ons

    CO

    2E/y

    ear) BAU Fossil

    Fuel

    Actual emissions

    IPCC LowestEmission Scenario

    80% reduction & climate

    stabilization

  • Cal/EPA-OEHHA, Environmental Protection Indicators for California (2002), www.oehha.ca.gov/multimedia/epic/Epicreport.htmlWesterling et al., Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity, Science (2006)

    California Climate Impactsover the past 100 years

    0

    2

    8

    7

    1

    9

    10

    3

    4

    1.3F (0.7C) higher temperatures

    7 inch sea level rise

    12% decrease in fraction of runoff between April

    and July

    snowmelt and spring blooms advanced

    2 days/decade since 1955

    4-fold increase in wildfire frequency (over 34 years)

    678910

    0

    4

    3

    2

    5

    1

    F

    11F

  • By Governor Executive Order(2005)

    Commissioned this peer-reviewed study (released in March 2006) of potential climate change impacts, and

    Provided key scientific input to Californias landmark greenhouse gas reduction legislation, AB 32

    www.climatechange.ca.gov

    California Climate Change Scenarios

    Assessment

  • Builds on 2006 study to:

    1. Improve assessment of climate change impacts

    2. Translate impacts into costs

    3. Develop adaptation strategies

    2008 Climate Action Team Scenarios Assessment

    (work in progress)

  • Medium Warming Range

    (5.5 8 F)

    6

    7

    0

    2

    1

    Projected Climate Impacts on California, 2070-2099 (as compared with 1961-1990 )

    Higher Warming Range

    (8 10.5 F)

    8

    9

    10

    Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

    4

    3

    5

    Lower Warming Range

    (3 5.5 F)

    F

    SierraSnowpack

    Sea Level

    Energy Demand

    30-60% loss

    70-80% loss

    90% loss

    6-14

    14-22

    22-30

    3-6%

    10%

    20%

  • Decrease in Sierra Nevada Snowpack2070-2099

    Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

    April 1 snow water equivalent (inches)~0 453015

    Medium Warming RangeLower Warming RangeHistorical Average (1961-1990)

  • 2100 projected increase of 140 cm (55 inches)

    in mean sea level

    Coastline Changes

  • 2050

    2050 Mission Beach Coastal Inundation in San Diego

    Messner et al. (2008). Climate Change Related Impacts in the San Diego by 2050. Scripps Institute of Oceanography, PIERClimate Change Research Center, Draft white paper, CEC-500-2008.

    Present

  • Optimal

    Marginal

    Impaired

    Wine Country

    Cool Coast

    Central Coast

    Central Valley

    1961-1990 Levels

    Lower Warming 3-5.5 F

    Medium Warming 5.5-8F

    Higher Warming 8-10.5F

    Decreasing Wine Grape Quality,

    2070-2099

    Increasing EmissionsHayhoe et al. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, PNAS (2004)

  • Public Health Concerns

    Air QualityHeat Extremes

    Wild Fire SmokeVulnerable Populations

  • Hotter Days Lead to Higher Emissions and More Smog

    Fresno, 2003-2006Riverside, 2003-2006

    o F)

    California Ozone Standard

    0

    20

    40

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    140

    160

    40 60 80 100 120

    Daily Maximum Temperature (

    Max

    imum

    8-h

    r A

    vera

    ge O

    zone

    (pp

    b)

    Daily Maximum Temperature ( F)o

    California OzoneStandard

    0

    20

    40

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    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    40 60 80 100 120

    Max

    imum

    8-h

    r A

    vera

    ge O

    zone

    (ppb

    )

    N. Motallebi (2008) Cal/EPA

  • Projected Ozone Response to Climate - 2050

    Steiner et al., Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California, JGR (2006)Millstein D.E. and R. A. Harley (2008) Impact of Climate Change on Photochemical Air Pollution in Southern California. To be submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research.

    Climate Penalty

    CombinedEffects

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    % C

    hang

    e in

    Ozo

    neFresno Sacramento Bay Area South Coast

    OzonePrecursorEmissionReduction

  • Climate Change Hotspots in U.S.

    Diffenbaugh, N. S., et al. (2008). Climate change hotspots in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett.

  • Increase in Wildfires

    Westerling and Bryant, Climate change and wildfire in and around California:Fire modeling and loss modeling (2006), www.climatechange.ca.gov

    LOWER WARMING RANGE

    MEDIUM WARMING RANGE

    2035-2064 2070-2099

    0

    30

    60

    % C

    HA

    NG

    E IN

    EX

    PE

    CT

    ED

    MIN

    IMU

    MN

    UM

    BE

    R O

    F L

    AR

    GE

    FIR

    ES

    PE

    R Y

    EA

    R

  • Cost of unmitigated climate change 2.5 to 5% of global economic

    product in 2100 For California: $270 to $540 billion

    in 2100 Effective adaptation can limit the cost

    of climate change impacts

    Economic Impacts of Climate Change

  • 0.0

    1.5

    3.0

    4.5

    6.0

    7.5

    2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

    Year

    US

    CO

    2em

    issi

    ons

    (Gig

    aton

    s C

    O2

    E/y

    ear)

    3.2% year

    450 ppm CO 2 prompt

    8.2% year

    450 ppm CO 2 delay

    Delay Requires Steep Emission Reductions

    Doniger et al., An Ambitious, Centrist Approach to Global Warming Legislation, Science (2006)

  • SummaryOverwhelming evidence human activities changing Earths climate

    California already affected by climate change

    Climate change increases air pollution control requirements

    Early action makes targets easier to attain

  • Acknowledgments

    Scientists from: Scripps Institution of

    Oceanography UC Berkeley UC Davis UC Santa Barbara Santa Clara University LBNL, LLNL US Forest Service Oregon State University Union of Concerned

    Scientists

    State Agencies: CEC PIER Program Cal/EPA Cal/Trans CARB CDF CDFA DPH DWR OEHHA Resources