Climate Change/Global Warming: Science, Politics, Ethics and Policy Jagadish Shukla University Professor College of Science (COS), George Mason University

Climate Change/Global Warming: Climate Change/Global Warming:

Science, Politics, Ethics and Science, Politics, Ethics and

PolicyPolicy

Jagadish ShuklaJagadish ShuklaUniversity ProfessorUniversity Professor

College of Science (COS), George Mason University (GMU)College of Science (COS), George Mason University (GMU)

President, Institute of Global Environment and Society President, Institute of Global Environment and Society (IGES)(IGES)

GMU, April 19, 2012

Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies

Global WarmingGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s near surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. (Wikipedia)Global Land-Ocean Temperature (1880-2011)

Annual Mean5-year Mean

(GISS, New York)

Relative to the 1951-1980 mean

An Elegant Science Question: An Elegant Science Question: Are increases in greenhouse gases responsible for

increase in global mean temperature (global warming)?


0.76°C (1.4°F) since 1900

0.55°C (1.0°F) since 1979

395

365

335

305

275

14.6

14.4

14.0

13.8

13.4

14.2

13.6

Global Temperature & Carbon Dioxide 1860-2008

Science and PoliticsScience and Politics

Center of Ocean-Land-Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studiesAtmosphere studies

Percentage of Democrats/Republicans who said that news of global warming was exaggerated (Gallup)

1998 2004 2008

Democrats 23% 22% 18%

Republicans 34% 60% 59%

Thanks: Ed Maibach, Center for Climate Change Communication (GMU)

Let us look at Let us look at the Observations.the Observations.


Monthly Mean Carbon DioxideMonthly Mean Carbon DioxideNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse GasesNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations. Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303) 497-6678



Sea Level Rise over the Last Sea Level Rise over the Last CenturyCentury

thermal expansion added freshwater (melting)

Sea Ice Cover in mid-Sept. 1979 & 2007

Arctic Sea Ice is DisappearingArctic Sea Ice is Disappearing

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum

(at least 15% sea ice coverage)


•The blue error bars include only the contributions from uncertainties in the GRACE gravity fields. Velicogna and Wahr (2006)

Greenland Ice MassGreenland Ice Mass

• COCO22 concentration concentration in the atmosphere has in the atmosphere has increased by increased by 24% 24%

between 1959 and 2011 (316 between 1959 and 2011 (316 392 ppm) 392 ppm)

• World World COCO22 emissions grew by 267% emissions grew by 267% between 1959 and 2011 between 1959 and 2011

(9.0 (9.0 33 Gt CO 33 Gt CO22 or 2.4 or 2.4 9.0 Gt C) 9.0 Gt C) (Primary reasons: fossil fuel use and land-use change)

• The post-industrial rate of increase of COThe post-industrial rate of increase of CO22, CH, CH44, and N, and N22O was the O was the

largest in 10,000 yearslargest in 10,000 years..

• Global mean surface Global mean surface temperature increased 0.8temperature increased 0.8ooC C 1901-2010, of 1901-2010, of which 0.5which 0.5ooC of the increase occurred since 1979.C of the increase occurred since 1979.

• 14 of the past 16 years 14 of the past 16 years were the were the warmestwarmest on record. on record.• March 2012 (waning La Niña) was coolest since 1999, yet 16th warmest of

133 since 1880

• In the past 500 years, the In the past 500 years, the warmest 50-year period was 1951-2000warmest 50-year period was 1951-2000..

Climate Change Facts

11

• Sea level has risenSea level has risen 1.7 mm/yr since 1901; 3.1 mm/yr since 1993. 1.7 mm/yr since 1901; 3.1 mm/yr since 1993.

• Arctic sea ice extent has fallen Arctic sea ice extent has fallen by 2.7% per decade since 1978.by 2.7% per decade since 1978.(The summer minimum on record occurred in 2007)

• Extreme hot nights have increasedExtreme hot nights have increased; frost days have decreased.; frost days have decreased.

• Earlier timing of spring eventsEarlier timing of spring events (blooms) on land.(blooms) on land.

• Poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges.Poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges.

• Changes in algal, plankton, and fish abundances (~temperature).Changes in algal, plankton, and fish abundances (~temperature).

• Increase in the acidity of oceansIncrease in the acidity of oceans..

Climate Change Facts

12

What Do We Know Better since 2007?(post IPCC AR4)

• Better measurements of – Atmospheric composition– Radiative balance of Earth– Temperature, precipitation, etc.– Chemical content of oceans– Water and ice on the sea and land surface

• Improved understanding of natural vs. forced climate variability

• Improved models of the physical climate system that more realistically represent observed features

• Nascent Earth system models that include important feedbacks from carbon, nitrogen and other cycles

Surface Temperature Trends (NCDC)

Surface Temperature Trend 1930-2004CMIP5 “historical” Simulations

K/decade; global mean removed(courtesy of Sanjiv Kumar, COLA)

Examples of Recent Findings• Ice cores have been extended back to 800 ka, which

provides additional instances of the glacial-interglacial cycles of the Quaternary period

• Recent trends in the Arctic unprecedented in last 2 ka• Recent trends in glacier retreat unprecedented in last 6 ka • Regional variations of warming trend at the surface, in the

troposphere and in the stratosphere are better estimated– Urban heat island effect is at most 10% of trend

• Detection and attribution of climate change – e.g. separating anthropogenic signal from natural variability – has improved considerably, due mostly to improvement in models

WarmingWarming

1. Greenhouse gases (CO1. Greenhouse gases (CO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O)O)• CO2: Carbon Dioxide : Emission from fossil fuel• CH4: Methane : Agriculture• N2O: Nitrous Oxide

2. Land use change2. Land use change

CoolingCooling

• AerosolsAerosols• Man made/Natural• Volcanoes

※※Rate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 yearsRate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 years

(Net) Global Warming (Net) Global Warming


IPCC 2007

1.0º C1.0º C


Increase in Surface TemperatureIncrease in Surface Temperature

ObservationsPredictions with Anthropogenic/Natural forcingsPredictions with Natrual forcings


Projection of Global WarmingProjection of Global WarmingMean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature Mean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature

DifferenceDifference(Sresa1b YR 71-100) minus (20c3m 1969-98), Global Average = (Sresa1b YR 71-100) minus (20c3m 1969-98), Global Average = 2.612.61


Observed & Projected Global Mean WarmingObserved & Projected Global Mean Warming


GGlobal lobal MMean ean SSea ea LLevelevel

RRelative to the 19elative to the 198080 to to 19991999 mean mean

Global Warming is Global Warming is Real and Unequivocal Real and Unequivocal

• Rising Temperatures (land, ocean)

• More Hot Days; Less Frost Days

• Melting Glaciers and Arctic Sea Ice

• Decreasing Winter Snow Cover

• Rising sea level

• Poleward and Northward Shift of SpeciesCenter of Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere studies

Summary of Major ImpactsSummary of Major Impacts

• Heat waves; Droughts; Forest fires

• Coastal area’s habitability (sea level)

• Health (cholera; malaria; dengue; lyme)

• Biodiversity: extinction of species

• Agriculture (uneven); Tropics (serious)

• Water (drying; snow melt; glacier melt)Center of Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere studies

ImpactsImpacts


Elevated night time temperaturesElevated night time temperaturesmagnify bark beetle impactmagnify bark beetle impact

Source: D. Struck 3/1/2006, Washington Post, pA1

‘Rapid Warming’ SpreadsHavoc in Canada’s Forests

Wednesday, March 1, 2006Wednesday, March 1, 2006

QUESNEL, B.C. -- Millions of acres of Canada's lush green forests are turning red in spasms of death. A voracious beetle, whose population has exploded with the warming climate, is killing more trees than wildfires or logging.

Adaptation & MitigationAdaptation & Mitigation

• Adaptation: initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects.

• Mitigation: actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance sinks aimed at reducing the extent of climate change.



MitigationMitigation

GeoengineeringGeoengineering

• Inject sulfur particles into the upper atmosphere reflect solar radiation (Volcanoes)

• Spray sea water increase reflectivity of marine stratus clouds reflect solar radiation

(1500 ships ~ increase reflectivity by 10%)

• White roof tops


GeoengineeringGeoengineering: Reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere

1. Expose the atmosphere to chemicals• To convert CO2 as solid form

2. Reduce amount of sunlight reaching Earth• Inject sulfur particles into the upper atmosphere reflect solar

radiation (Volcanoes)

• Spray sea water increase reflectivity of marine stratus clouds reflect solar radiation (1500 ships ~ increase reflectivity by 10%)

• White roof tops

• Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year

• Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year

• This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy

• “We can grow and be green”

Sir Nicholas Stern

STERN REVIEW: STERN REVIEW: Main threat to a sustainable EarthMain threat to a sustainable Earth


What We Can DoWhat We Can Do


• Immediate action on conservation and energy efficiencyImmediate action on conservation and energy efficiency• Help elect enlightened leaders and policymakersHelp elect enlightened leaders and policymakers

• Educate the publicEducate the public• Social, economic, scientific, technological researchSocial, economic, scientific, technological research• Create new institutionsCreate new institutions

• International dialogues and negotiationsInternational dialogues and negotiations• Tax; Cap and TradeTax; Cap and Trade

(Individuals; (Individuals; InstitutionsInstitutions; ; GovernmentsGovernments))

Global Well-Being (sustainability, security

and the future of civilization)

The Global ChallengeThe Global Challenge

Inequality and Extreme Poverty

Human PopulationGrowth

EnvironmentalDegradation


Tobacco and HealthTobacco and Health(Denial by Industry)

• Understood the effects of tobacco on health (~1920 s)

• Surgeon general puts warning label (1965)

• Changes in policies and practices (~1990 s)

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

• Funding of “doubt” by oil, coal and auto industries.

Because climate change seriously threatens

the habitability of Earth and the sustainability

of our societies and the planet’s ecosystems,

and because a powerful industrial-political

coalition opposes actions to address climate

change, the younger generation must start a

movement to take back the Earth.

A MovementA Movement

Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

“The balance of economic growth, social

justice, and environmental health that

meets the needs of present generation

and enables future generations to meet

their needs.”Our Common Future (1987)

The Brundtland Report


YesYesCenter of Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere studies

Managing planet Earth……Managing planet Earth……

A new phase in human historyA new phase in human history

An enormous challenge……An enormous challenge……

Are we up to Are we up to it?it?

THANK YOU!

Sustainability at GMUSustainability at GMU GHG footprint: dorms; colleges; GMU Utilization of water and energy: (energy sources; coal,

natural gas, nuclear, etc.) Collection and dissemination of data; Innovative

solutions Conservation competition among dorms/colleges;

among Washington area universities Environmental advocacy; lectures at high schools, public

events Greening of the campus (bike sharing; commuting; food

services) Exposure to: science, engineering, economics, politics,

policy, health, law, art, architecture, etc.

THANK YOU!

ANY QUESTIONS?


Links Between Climate and HealthLinks Between Climate and Health

39

Direction and magnitude of selected Direction and magnitude of selected health impactshealth impacts

40

• Temperature dependence of malaria vector well known to researchers in the 1920s (e.g., A. Macdonald, Journal of the Royal Army Medical Corps)

• Maximum altitude and latitudinal range strongly determined by mean temperature

• Interactions between pathogen, vector, host, and climate are complex and not fully understood

• Weaker links between disease incidence and climate within endemic regions

• Vectors are subject to significant control measures in developed world – good for human health, but confounds link to climate.

Climate and MalariaClimate and Malaria

41

Malaria in Kutch, NW India (November Peak)lagged rank correlations (black line = 95% confidence)

JAS Rainfall JAS Temp.

June SST

42

Cholera in Bangladesh• Cholera

– Pathogen (vibrio cholerae) inhabits aquatic environments

– Fecal-oral transmission– Ingestion of contaminated water– Numerous pandemics throughout

history– Multiple strains: El Tor

• Bangladesh– Endemic center of cholera– Low-lying– Densely populated– Delta of two major rivers

courtesy ICDDR, B43

Photo: M. Pascual

44

Photo: M. Pascual

45

Influence of Climate?– Vibrio cholerae is an aquatic

organism– Water level, temperature, salinity,

nutrients, all can influence prevalence of V. cholerae and potentially disease incidence

– Interactions between disease, host and climate are complex and poorly understood

– Role of climate still uncertain

Understanding links in the current climate is critical to understanding cholera risk in a changing climate

46

Cholera Annual Cycle: Bangladesh

Prominent seasonal dependence - Link to monsoon?

Monsoon

47

Statistical Analysis …Rank Correlation of September Cholera Incidence with Antecedent January Sea Surface Temperature

Bangladesh

Strong resemblance ENSO warm phase48

Direct influence on cholera?– Observed precipitation

enhanced following El Niño– Model captures much of the

observed signal

Plausible link between cholera and ENSO

… Reproduced by Climate Model

49

Cholera in Dhaka Hospital Records

50

Disease Modeling

• Plausible physical link between cholera and ENSO– Increased rainfall increased flooding – Limited dry land greater concentration of population– Greater breakdown in sanitation– Risk of contact with contaminated water increased

• Impact?– Internal dynamics of disease must also be considered– Nonlinear disease dynamics can generate cycles of variability

independently of climate– ‘Longer-term weather cycles such as ENSO have been invoked recently

to ‘explain’ outbreaks of malaria and other diseases. … none of these analyses allows an alternative explanation involving intrinsic cycles.’ (Rogers et al., 2002)

Can internal dynamics alone explain observed record?

51

Time series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS)

S

R

Iinfected

recovered (immune)

susceptible

Loss of immunity

€

βseasβ lt

Koelle and Pascual (The American Naturalist 2004)

Koelle, Rodo, Pascual and Yunus (Nature 2005)

Transmission rate

t

t

N

S1+tI

tI

52

Model Residuals and ENSO

Clear linear relationship between ENSO and unexplained variance

53

Cholera ReconstructionWithout ENSO

ENSO included

Inclusion of ENSO improves reconstruction

Niño3.4

54

Documents

Climate Change/Global Warming: Science, Politics, Ethics and Policy Jagadish Shukla University Professor College of Science (COS), George Mason University