Climate Impacts on Agriculture For Climatology Class 11/6/2014 1

1

Climate Impacts on Agriculture

For Climatology Class 11/6/2014

2

Outline

• Agriculture is essential • How does climate affect agriculture (lab experiment)?• How do further climate changes affect agriculture?(1) Global warming scenario(2) Geoengineering scenario(3) A regional nuclear war scenario• How agriculture system feedback on climate system?

3[Elert, 2014]

On average, every day, each person on the planet consumes:

It is a challenge to feed the world in 2050

(1) Food demand increasing(2) Food distributed unevenly(3) Waste(4) Climate changes

I. Agriculture is essential

4http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts2014/#theme=food-security

(1) Food Demand is Increasing

(under assumption of consumption patterns do not change)


5[Elert, 2014]


6

In developing countries, calories per person is increasing with time[Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012] http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts2014/#theme=food-security


7http://www.fao.org/economic/ess(2 ) Food distributed unevenly


8

Kevin Carter, March 1993, SudanA starving toddler trying to reach a feeding center when a hooded vulture landed nearby

9http://ccafs.cgiar.org/bigfacts2014/#theme=food-security

(3) Waste

Let’s calculate our carbon food print:

http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/carboncalculator

http://www.foodemissions.com/foodemissions/Calculator.aspx


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoCVrkcaH6Q

Food Waste

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Md3ddmtja6s

11

Glo

bal T

empe

ratu

re R

elati

ve to

180

0-19

00

(4) Global climate impacts food production

(IPCC, 2007)


12

Photosynthesis6𝐶𝑂2+6𝐻 2𝑂 h𝑣

→𝐶6𝐻12𝑂6+6𝑂2

Respiration

𝐶6 𝐻12𝑂6 +6𝑂2→6𝐶𝑂2+6𝐻 2𝑂+h𝑣

Transpiration

• Movement of minerals and sugars• Cooling• Turgor pressure• Osmotic pressure• Capillary action


(4) Global climate impacts food production

13

24 Solar Terms:

(Liu A et al. 139 BCE)

Temperature

Precipitation

Solar radiation

CO2

O3

Vernal equinox

Autumnal equinox

Summer solstice

Winter solstice

Climate Factors

II. How does climate affect agriculture

14

Climate Factors - Temperature

(Porter and Gawith, 1999)

(Schlenker and Roberts, 2006)

Wheat

Rice

Maize

(Nishiyama et al., 1976)


15

Climate Factors - Precipitation

[Jalota et al., 2007]

Wheat Rice

Maize Cotton


16

PAR(μmol m-2 s-1)

[Mercado et al., 2009]

Climate Factors – Solar Radiation

Simulated direct lightObserved direct light

Observed diffuse lightSimulated diffuse light


17[Dayton, 2014]

II. How does climate affect agriculture Climate Factors – CO2

CO2 fertilization effect

[Leadley and Drake 1993]

18[Avenery et al., 2011a, b]

Climate Factors –O3

2000

2030, A2

Total crop production loss (CPL)


19

Predict future climate impact on agriculture

Climate Forcing

Soil PropertyAgriculture Data

Crop Model• Crop Model

Statistic Model Dynamic Model

• Climate Forcing Observation Climate Model Simulation

• Soil properties Physical properties Chemical properties

• Agriculture Data Crop distribution Planting date Cultivars Irrigation Fertilizer Pesticide

III. How do future climate change affect agriculture?

20

What is Dynamic Crop model? Example: DSSAT

Main Program

Weather Management Soil Plant

Soil-Plant-Atmosphere

Planting

Harvesting

Irrigation

Fertilizer

Residue

Tillage

Daily Tmax

Daily Tmin

Daily Precip.

Daily solar radiation

Water

N

P

Organic matter

Dynamics Maize

Wheat

Rice

Potato

Other crops

CO2


21[Lobell et al., 2008]


(1) Global Warming scenario – Case study – Statistic Crop Model

Climate changes for 2030 in different regions (based on 20 General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios)

22[Lobell et al., 2008]

(1) Negative Impact: SAF-maize SAF-wheat(2) Large uncertainties SAS-groundnut SAF-sorghum(3) No changes WAS-wheat

23[Rosenzweig, 2014]

Median yield changes (%) for RCP8.5 (2070–2099 in comparison to 1980–2010 baseline) with CO2 effects over all five GCMs x seven GGCMs (6 GGCMs for rice) for rainfed maize (35 ensemble members), wheat (35 ensemble members), rice (30 ensemble members), and soy (35 ensemble members).

(1) Global Warming scenario – Case study – Dynamics Crop Model


24

Relative change (%) in RCP8.5 decadal mean production for each GGCM (based on current agricultural lands and irrigation distribution) from ensemble median for all GCM combinations with (solid) and without (dashed)CO2 effects for maize, wheat, rice, and soy; bars show range of all GCM combinations with CO2 effects. GEPIC, GAEZ-IMAGE, and LPJ-GUESS only contributed one GCM without CO2 effects.


(1) Global Warming scenario – Case study – Dynamics Crop Model

[Rosenzweig, 2014]

25


(2) Geoengineering scenario

“In light of the failure of society to take any concerted actions to deal with global warming ….. two prominent atmospheric scientists published papers recently suggesting that society consider geoengineering solutions to global warming…” [Robock et al., 2008]

“There are been many types of suggested geoengineering, including … changing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere … damming the ocean … reducing the incoming solar radiation …“[Robock et al., 2008]

26

Tropopause

Space-based reflectors

Stratospheric aerosols

Cloud brightening

Surface albedo modification

Solar Radiation Management

Earth surface


27“Simulated geoengineering reduced precipitation over wide regions, condemning hundreds of millions of people to drought.” [Robock, 2008]

[Robock et al., 2008]


(2) Geoengineering scenario

28

- standard experiments with the new GCMs being run as part of CMIP5 using identical global warming and geoengineering scenarios, to see whether precious results are robust.

GeoMIP – The Geoengineering Modeling Intercomparison

Project

(Kravitz et al., 2011)

G2: In combination with 1% CO2 increase per year, gradually reduce the solar constant to balance the changing radiative forcing.

29

Global Temperature Changes – G2 Geoengineering

[Jones et al., 2014]dotted lines are +1%/yr CO2 solid lines are G2

30

Global Precipitation Changes – G2 Geoengineering

[Jones et al., 2014]dotted lines are +1%/yr CO2 solid lines are G2

31

(www.fao.org)

World population


(2) Geoengineering scenario – Case Study - China

32

Observations – Meteorology

Temperature

Precipitation

Solar Radiation

Summer Winter


33

Observations – Agricultural ProductionRice Production (Gt) (1978-2008 average) Maize Production (Gt) (1978-2008 average)

Spring Wheat Production (Gt) (1978-2008 average)Winter Wheat Production (Gt) (1978-2008 average)


34

Observations – Agricultural Yield and Practice


35

Crop model evaluation - Rice


[Xia et al., 2013]

36

Crop model evaluation - Maize


[Xia et al., 2014]

37

Rice Maize

The end of G2 geoengineering



[Xia et al., 2014]

38

Crop yield changes under simulated G2 geoengineering (Year 36-50) compared with the same period of 1pctCO2.


[Xia et al., 2014]

39

Rice

Maize

G2 Geoengineering End of G2 Geoengineering(2) Geoengineering scenario – Case Study - China

[Xia et al., 2014]

40

Rice Maize

CO2 fertilization effect:

• raises rice production by 8.6 Mt and compensates the negative impacts from other climate changes due to G2 on rice.

• contributes 42.4% of the maize production increase compared with 1pctCO2


[Xia et al., 2014]


41

• (G2) have no significant effect on Chinese rice production, while without CO2 fertilizer effect, Chinese rice production would drop 11.6 Mt (11.6%) as compared to 1pctCO2;

• (G2) raise rice production by 5.2 Mt after the termination of G2 ;

• (G2) would increase Chinese maize production by 18.1 Mt (13.9%) compared with 1pctCO2 and CO2 fertilization effect contributes to 42% of this increasing.

• (G2) decrease Chinese maize production to the level of 1pctCO2 after the termination of G2.

Using one crop model, Geoengineering would:

III. How do future climate change affect agriculture?(2) Geoengineering scenario – Case Study - China

42

This would be only 0.03% of the current world arsenal.

Scenario: Weapons dropped on the 50 targets in each country that would produce the maximum smoke.

5 Tg of smoke injected into the upper troposphere, accounting for fuel loading, emission factors and rainout.

What would be the consequences of a regional nuclear war using 100 15-kT (Hiroshima-size) weapons between India and Pakistan?

III. How do future climate change affect agriculture?(3) A regional nuclear war scenario

43

Daily smoke loading from one ensemble member.Absorption optical depth of 0.1 means that 90% of radiation reaches the surface.

(3) A regional nuclear war scenario

44[Mills et al., 2014]

Climate Changes – Regional Nuclear War

45

“Our results show that this period of no food production needs to be extended by many years, making the impacts of nuclear winter even worse than previously thought.”

III. How do future climate change affect agriculture?(3) A regional nuclear war scenario

[Robock et al., 2007]

46

With 1°C and 2°C higher temperature, rice production forced by GISS ModelE output in the first three years increased 6 Mt and 10 Mt, respectively, but was still 17% and 13% less then control run.


[Xia et al., 2013]

47

An additional 50 kg/ha fertilizer can compensate the negative impact on rice production. After moving rice planting region to the South, Chinese rice production increased 8-12 Mt under the nuclear war scenario.

[Xia et al., 2013]


48

IV. How would agriculture system feedback on climate system

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm/

Make changes in:

Energy Balance• Albedo• Latent Heat• Sensible Heat

• Chemical emission

Temperature

Precipitation, PressureTemperature

49


[Lyons et al., 1996]

Satellite observations for south-western Australia. The native vegetation is a woodland called mallee.The topography of the region is duplex mallee soils – sand overlying clay.

50


[Lyons et al., 1996]

Satellite observations for south-western Australia. The native vegetation is a woodland called mallee.The topography of the region is duplex mallee soils – sand overlying clay.

51


Annual mean surface albedo change caused by anthropogenic vegetation changes. (2001-2004 MODIS)

The increase in the surface albedo at mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere is a result of deforestation for agricultural activity. The increase of the annual mean surface albedo is more than 0.1 in certain areas. In some areas the conversion of grassland to cropland has reduced the surface albedo, but the effect is of smaller magnitude than in regions with deforestation.[Myhre et al., 2005]

52


[Levis et al., 2012]

Model simulation using CESM-CLM-crop with active atmospheric model. CTRL is model simulation with crop model turned off, CROP is with crop model turned on, LateP is with crop model turned on and using the latest date for planting.

With crop model turned on, simulated leaf area index reduces in winter and increases in the growing season, which reduce the latent heat flux but not around peak LAI. Simulated 850-hPa wind pattern is slightly changed with crop model turned on and therefore simulated precipitation reduced in Midwestern North America.

53

IV. How agriculture system feedback on climate system

Chemical emissions from agriculture

[IPCC, 2006]

54

NH3/NH4+

N2

Nitrogen Fixation

Fertilizer

NO2- NO3

-

Nitrification

N2O N2

Denitrification

Volatilization

Plant uptake

Leaching Leaching

N2O N2O N2NH3

StratosphereOzone depletion

Troposphere

More UV

Tropics

IV. How agriculture system feedback on climate system

Documents

Climate Impacts on Agriculture For Climatology Class 11/6/2014 1