CMIP3 マルチモデルアンサンブルで 再現された NAO と ENSO/WP の関係性および、ユーラシア大陸の積雪偏差がモデルの再現性に与える影響

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2012 12 12 . CMIP3 NAO ENSO/WP . / JAMSTEC . 1 year. (2012) 12 NAO-(+)1 yearENSO(+)-/WP(+)-. NAO -(+). ENSO +(-). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • CMIP3NAOENSO/WP/

    JAMSTEC20121212

  • NAO -(+)ENSO +(-)CMIP3CGCMCMIP3 performance of ENSO: Ohba et al., 2010 and NAO: Nube 2010CI(2012)12NAO-(+)1 yearENSO(+)-/WP(+)-

  • CMIP3 models

    20C3M run 100yr (1901-2000) with 5yr high pass filterPartial use (9)cnrm_cm3csiro_mk3_0gfdl_cm2_1iap_fgoals1_0_gmiroc3_2_medresncar_ccsm3_0ncar_pcm1ukmo_hadgem1ingv_echam4Non use (5)cccma_cgcm3_1_t63gfdl_cm2_0giss_model_e_hgiss_model_e_rukmo_hadcm3Full use (7)bccr_bcm2_0csiro_mk3_5giss_aominmcm3_0ipsl_cm4mpi_echam5mri_cgcm2_3_2WWB-ENSO good modelsGood but 1-month lagIn-phaseby Seiki et al., 2011

  • Definition of models ENSOEOF1 SST160E-270E, 10S-10N, Jul-JanOhba et al., 2010Definition of models NAOEOF1 Ps60W-30E, 20N-90NNov, Dec, Jan, FebNube, 2010RPCASVD 1st modePsNov -1yr-- SSTJul-JanPsDec -1yr -- SSTJul-JanPsJan -1yr -- SSTJul-JanPsFeb -1yr -- SSTJul-Jan member (16) x NAO month (4) = 64 pairs

  • EOFSVDCI >= 0.521/64=33%OBS: 0.62+1yrPositive CI:NAO-(+) El nino (La nina)Negative CI:NAO-(+) La nina (El nino)CI

  • SVD1R: SVD1Ps homogeneous: m: M: W: (=CI): Barnett et al. (1989), Yasunari (1987)

  • = +0 mon+10 mon-10 monRegressed onSVD1 scoreEnsemble composite w/ weightingShadings: < -2, < -1 , < 0, > 0, > +1 , > +2 Z500T850+12 mon

  • Snow amount/meltingin the western RussiaColdadvectionNAO +0monNAO +1monNAO +2mon

  • NAO-ENSO vs. CI vs. CINAO1Corr.NAO1Corr.CICI

  • Responses to the cooling anomalyZ500Z850V lon120U EQ.Idealized GCM NLBM) run

  • NAO +1mon(CMIP3 multi models)T1000Z500Ps Us:VsCMIP3NAO +3mon(NCEP/NCAR)

  • SummaryCMIP3NAOENSOCIGCM- NAO//- ENSOEl nino/La ninaNakamura et al., 2006Yu et al., 2003- 1ENSO El nino/La nina Seiki et al., 2011WWB0-10monElNinoCMIP3 good modelsgenerally less months than OBS- WP/-like/NCEP/NCARERA interim

  • NAO(-)ENSO(+)snow(+)Cyclonic anom.Anticyclonic anom.High PsTransport of - cold and dry air - high vor. anom.Intensified WWBA schematic diagram of a possible propagation process of the physical informationCold advection

  • NAO monthsCI >= 0.522/64=33%

  • CI for obs. (NRA1_PS vs HadISST)

    NAO monthCITs (EOF1*SVD1)Ps (EOF1*SVD1)November-0.508 0.757-0.671December 0.622 0.810 0.769January 0.278 0.795 0.350February-0.495 0.819-0.605

  • BjerknesfeedbackOverview of the regression fields

  • Snow amount (CMIP3 multi models)Snow cover (NOAA)Snow depth (JRA25)NAO +0monNAO +1monNAO +2monNAO +3mon

    CMIP316201005monthly meanPsEOFNAOENSOSSTEOFNAOENSOPsSSTSVDNAO*Coherency indexEOFSVD1NAONAOCINAOENSO*NAOENSOSVD1PshomogeneousCiCINAOENSOYasunari et al.*NAONAO*NAOCIscatter diagramNAONAOENSONAONAOENSO*GCMZ500Z850warm pool*