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Copper on its daily chart took reversal from its support i.e. 395, now if it sustains on a higher note then it may find next resistance around 412.
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21 APRIL – 25 APRIL 2014
W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM
MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures fell as signs of gains in the U.S. economy eroded demand for the metal.
Consumer confidence rose from a nine-week low as Americans grew more upbeat
about the economy, and jobless claims were close to the lowest in almost seven
years, data showed today. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia factory index, a
gauge of regional manufacturing, climbed to 16.6 in April, topping estimates by
analysts. Gold dropped 1.9% this week. These positive economic reports are pushing
gold lower. There’s not really a compelling story to buy gold now, other than the
situation in Crimea.
Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to close at $1,293.90 an ounce at 1:40
p.m. on the Comex in New York. Trading was 28 percent below the average in the past
100 days. The market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
This year, gold has climbed 7.6 percent this year on haven demand linked to the
turmoil in Ukraine. Diplomats from the Eastern European country, Russia, the U.S. and
the European Union met for talks on the crisis in Geneva today.
Brent crude traded near a six-week high amid concern that the escalating crisis in
Ukraine will disrupt supplies. West Texas Intermediate rose for a second day.
Futures advanced as much as 0.2 percent in London before retreating. Ukraine
accused Russia of fueling terrorism in its eastern regions as the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization pledged to bolster the defenses of nearby nations. WTI rose after Janet
Yellen, in her first speech to a Wall Street audience since becoming Federal Reserve
chair, emphasized her commitment to support the U.S. economic recovery.
The escalating crisis in Ukraine provides strong support to the market amid concerns
about oil supply issues in the region. Yellen comments yesterday spread an optimistic
tone in the WTI contract amid hopes for a strong U.S. economic recovery. Brent for
June settlement was 37 cents lower at $109.23 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. on the
London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a
premium of $6.30 to WTI for the same month. The spread widened for a third day
yesterday to close at $6.57.
Brent Crude
Trades near Six-
Week High on
Ukraine.
Copper
Recovering as
Prices near Cost
of Production on
COMEX.
The quick recovery in the COMEX Copper seen on Wednesday and which is continuing
on Thursday is due to the prices slowing down to the levels of production cost. The
metal is produced at $ 2.8 to $ 3 per pound in various mines across the globe. In a
brief moment last session the prices of COMEX Copper moved below $ 3 before
recover. When last checked the prices of COMEX Copper were trading at $ 3.039 per
pound, up 1 cent. In major news, report from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
released yesterday showed that China's industrial value added expanded by 8.8
percent in March from an average growth of 8.6 percent in the Jan-Feb period.
The value added of state-owned enterprises saw a 4.6-percent growth year on year in
March, while that of joint stock companies expanded by 10.1 percent, according to the
NBS data. Last month, the value added of the manufacturing sector grew by 9.9
percent, while that of the mining industry grew by 2.9 percent.
COMEX Copper fund managers for the positions on 8 April showed decline in short
positions. A simultaneous marginal build in long positions were noted. Long positions
of Copper were 29092 contracts, up 198. Short position of Copper was 42467
contracts, down 6151 contracts.
Gold Drops on
U.S. Economy.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
Apr 21 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% 0.5%
Apr 22 6:30pm HPI m/m 0.6% 0.5%
7:30pm Existing Home Sales 4.57M 4.60M
7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 0 -7
Apr 23 7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.2 55.5
7:30pm New Home Sales 455K 440K
8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 10.0M
Apr 24 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% 0.1%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 309K 304K
6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 2.1% 2.2%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 24B
Apr 25 7:15pm Flash Services PMI 56.2 55.5
7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 83.2 82.6
7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
28200 27900 27600 28800 29100 29410
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
41500 39900 38500 43100 44165 45350
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed
downward movement and unable to
maintain above 38.2% retracement
and dragged towards its previous
support levels i.e. 28200. Now, on
higher side if it closed above 28800
then next resistance may be seen in
the range of 29000-29250. On other
hand if it sustains at lower levels and
trades below 28200 then bearishness
may take it towards the support level
of 27800.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 28300 for the targets of 28000-
27800 with stop loss of 28800.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER showed downward
movement on daily charts and broke
its important support level i.e. 42400
and found support of trendline but not
able to close below it. Now, immediate
support is seen near 41500 below
which next support will be 40500. On
higher side if it maintains above 43100
then some correction will take it upto
next resistance level of 43850.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 41500 for
targets of 40500-40000, with stop loss of
43100.
C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
…
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6185 6115 6035 6320 6415 6500
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
399 391.80 386 412 421.50 429
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper on daily charts sustained
below 23.6% retracement last week
and was able to rebound from lower
level of 400 to close the week on a flat
note. It needs to sustain above 412
above which it may lead towards the
next important resistance of 420 while
on lower side 400 is still seen as
pychological support below which
further bearishness may drag it
towards support range of 392-385.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6180 for the targets of 6100-6040,
with stop loss of 6330.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week showed
sideways movement and traded
around the trendline and also closed
above it. If the upward movement
continues and maintains above 6320
then it may find resistance in the range
of 6410-6500. On other hand if it
reverse from trendline then 6180 will
act as major support for it.
S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy
above 412, with stop loss of 399 for the
targets of 420-425.
PIVOT TABLE
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