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21 APRIL 25 APRIL 2014 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

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Copper on its daily chart took reversal from its support i.e. 395, now if it sustains on a higher note then it may find next resistance around 412.

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Page 1: Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

21 APRIL – 25 APRIL 2014

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures fell as signs of gains in the U.S. economy eroded demand for the metal.

Consumer confidence rose from a nine-week low as Americans grew more upbeat

about the economy, and jobless claims were close to the lowest in almost seven

years, data showed today. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia factory index, a

gauge of regional manufacturing, climbed to 16.6 in April, topping estimates by

analysts. Gold dropped 1.9% this week. These positive economic reports are pushing

gold lower. There’s not really a compelling story to buy gold now, other than the

situation in Crimea.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7 percent to close at $1,293.90 an ounce at 1:40

p.m. on the Comex in New York. Trading was 28 percent below the average in the past

100 days. The market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

This year, gold has climbed 7.6 percent this year on haven demand linked to the

turmoil in Ukraine. Diplomats from the Eastern European country, Russia, the U.S. and

the European Union met for talks on the crisis in Geneva today.

Brent crude traded near a six-week high amid concern that the escalating crisis in

Ukraine will disrupt supplies. West Texas Intermediate rose for a second day.

Futures advanced as much as 0.2 percent in London before retreating. Ukraine

accused Russia of fueling terrorism in its eastern regions as the North Atlantic Treaty

Organization pledged to bolster the defenses of nearby nations. WTI rose after Janet

Yellen, in her first speech to a Wall Street audience since becoming Federal Reserve

chair, emphasized her commitment to support the U.S. economic recovery.

The escalating crisis in Ukraine provides strong support to the market amid concerns

about oil supply issues in the region. Yellen comments yesterday spread an optimistic

tone in the WTI contract amid hopes for a strong U.S. economic recovery. Brent for

June settlement was 37 cents lower at $109.23 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. on the

London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a

premium of $6.30 to WTI for the same month. The spread widened for a third day

yesterday to close at $6.57.

Brent Crude

Trades near Six-

Week High on

Ukraine.

Copper

Recovering as

Prices near Cost

of Production on

COMEX.

The quick recovery in the COMEX Copper seen on Wednesday and which is continuing

on Thursday is due to the prices slowing down to the levels of production cost. The

metal is produced at $ 2.8 to $ 3 per pound in various mines across the globe. In a

brief moment last session the prices of COMEX Copper moved below $ 3 before

recover. When last checked the prices of COMEX Copper were trading at $ 3.039 per

pound, up 1 cent. In major news, report from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

released yesterday showed that China's industrial value added expanded by 8.8

percent in March from an average growth of 8.6 percent in the Jan-Feb period.

The value added of state-owned enterprises saw a 4.6-percent growth year on year in

March, while that of joint stock companies expanded by 10.1 percent, according to the

NBS data. Last month, the value added of the manufacturing sector grew by 9.9

percent, while that of the mining industry grew by 2.9 percent.

COMEX Copper fund managers for the positions on 8 April showed decline in short

positions. A simultaneous marginal build in long positions were noted. Long positions

of Copper were 29092 contracts, up 198. Short position of Copper was 42467

contracts, down 6151 contracts.

Gold Drops on

U.S. Economy.

Page 3: Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Apr 21 7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m 0.8% 0.5%

Apr 22 6:30pm HPI m/m 0.6% 0.5%

7:30pm Existing Home Sales 4.57M 4.60M

7:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 0 -7

Apr 23 7:15pm Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.2 55.5

7:30pm New Home Sales 455K 440K

8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 10.0M

Apr 24 6:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% 0.1%

6:00pm Unemployment Claims 309K 304K

6:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 2.1% 2.2%

8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 24B

Apr 25 7:15pm Flash Services PMI 56.2 55.5

7:25pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 83.2 82.6

7:25pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%

Page 4: Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

28200 27900 27600 28800 29100 29410

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

41500 39900 38500 43100 44165 45350

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD last week showed

downward movement and unable to

maintain above 38.2% retracement

and dragged towards its previous

support levels i.e. 28200. Now, on

higher side if it closed above 28800

then next resistance may be seen in

the range of 29000-29250. On other

hand if it sustains at lower levels and

trades below 28200 then bearishness

may take it towards the support level

of 27800.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 28300 for the targets of 28000-

27800 with stop loss of 28800.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER showed downward

movement on daily charts and broke

its important support level i.e. 42400

and found support of trendline but not

able to close below it. Now, immediate

support is seen near 41500 below

which next support will be 40500. On

higher side if it maintains above 43100

then some correction will take it upto

next resistance level of 43850.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 41500 for

targets of 40500-40000, with stop loss of

43100.

Page 5: Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

6185 6115 6035 6320 6415 6500

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

399 391.80 386 412 421.50 429

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper on daily charts sustained

below 23.6% retracement last week

and was able to rebound from lower

level of 400 to close the week on a flat

note. It needs to sustain above 412

above which it may lead towards the

next important resistance of 420 while

on lower side 400 is still seen as

pychological support below which

further bearishness may drag it

towards support range of 392-385.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell

below 6180 for the targets of 6100-6040,

with stop loss of 6330.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement and traded

around the trendline and also closed

above it. If the upward movement

continues and maintains above 6320

then it may find resistance in the range

of 6410-6500. On other hand if it

reverse from trendline then 6180 will

act as major support for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to buy

above 412, with stop loss of 399 for the

targets of 420-425.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Commodity weekly report 21 apr to 27 apr

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