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Communications and telecom munications Integrated approaches to communications planning Alan Hancock The author argues for an integrated approach to the formulation of communication policies. He suggests that the term 'communication planning" signals changes in attitudes to planning in general, breaking through the boundaries of technical or quantitative exclusivity into a broader, more interdisciplinary approach. After describing the main characteristics of the integrated approach, he examines the Unesco Afghanistan survey as an example of recent work on the methodology of overall communi- cation system planning. The author then discusses the issue of tech- nology transfer in the context of communications, and concludes with an analysis of the trend towards the international coordi- nation of planning approaches. The author is Chief, Communication Planning and Studies, Division of Development of Communication Systems, Unesco, 7 Place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris, France. I should begin this article with two disclaimers. In the first place, it is a personal account; although it happens to coincide in subject matter with my professional responsibilities in Unesco, it does not necessarily reflect an institutional point of view. In fact, the field of communication planning is new enough for there to be, as yet, no entrenched institutional viewpoint. Secondly, and this is a caveat rather than a disclaimer, the reader should note that the article is about communication planning, not tele- communications planning. The distinction is not made to imply that one kind of planning is superior to, or subsumes, the other; it is not even made in deference to the fact that I am a planner and administrator, not an engineer. Rather, it illustrates a particular perspective on planning for communication systems. I hope to show, however, that the term 'communication planning' embraces concepts which telecommunications engineers should also find acceptable, that it mirrors changes in attitudes to planning processes overall, because it moves beyond an exclusively technical or quantitative base, to a broader concern with political and socioeconomic functions and with development. Communication is a concept elastic enough to include inter- personal, institutional and mass communication forms; it has been described as one of those 'relatively few fundamental and encom- passing processes through which virtually any social event can be portrayed'. However, the study of communication is a different and more restricted affair, which is largely a matter of entry points. From the viewpoint of the psychologist, communication is a need, comparable with other basic human needs. From a more philosophical viewpoint, it is seen as a right (leading characteristically to discussions of information flow and equilibl:ium). From the aesthetic viewpoint, it is a creative activity. Communication planning assumes yet another perspective, which adopts primarily an economic view; charac- 298 0308-5961/78/040298-11 $02.00 © 1978 IPC Business Press

Communications and telecommunications: Integrated approaches to communications planning

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Communications and telecom munications

Integrated approaches to communications planning

Alan Hancock

The author argues for an integrated approach to the formulation of c o m m u n i c a t i o n pol ic ies. He suggests that the term 'communication planning" signals changes in attitudes to planning in general, breaking through the boundar ies of technica l or quantitative exclusivity in to a broader, more interdisciplinary approach. After describing the main characteristics of the integrated approach, he examines the Unesco Afghanistan survey as an example of recent work on the methodology of overall communi- cation system planning. The author then discusses the issue of tech- nology t ransfer in the con tex t of communications, and concludes w i t h an analysis of the trend towards the international coordi- nation of planning approaches.

The author is Chief, Communicat ion Planning and Studies, Division of Development of Communicat ion Systems, Unesco, 7 Place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris, France.

I should begin this article with two disclaimers. In the first place, it is a personal account; although it happens to coincide in subject matter with my professional responsibilities in Unesco, it does not necessarily reflect an institutional point of view. In fact, the field of communicat ion planning is new enough for there to be, as yet, no entrenched institutional viewpoint.

Secondly, and this is a caveat rather than a disclaimer, the reader should note that the article is about communicat ion planning, not tele- communicat ions planning. The distinction is not made to imply that one kind of planning is superior to, or subsumes, the other; it is not even made in deference to the fact that I am a planner and administrator, not an engineer. Rather, it illustrates a particular perspective on planning for communicat ion systems. I hope to show, however, that the term 'communicat ion planning' embraces concepts which telecommunications engineers should also find acceptable, that it mirrors changes in attitudes to planning processes overall, because it moves beyond an exclusively technical or quantitative base, to a broader concern with political and socioeconomic functions and with development.

Communicat ion is a concept elastic enough to include inter- personal, institutional and mass communicat ion forms; it has been described as one o f those 'relatively few fundamental and encom- passing processes through which virtually any social event can be portrayed' .

However, the study of communicat ion is a different and more restricted affair, which is largely a matter of entry points. From the viewpoint of the psychologist, communicat ion is a need, comparable with other basic human needs. From a more philosophical viewpoint, it is seen as a right (leading characteristically to discussions of information flow and equilibl:ium). From the aesthetic viewpoint, it is a creative activity. Communicat ion planning assumes yet another perspective, which adopts primarily an economic view; charac-

298 0 3 0 8 - 5 9 6 1 / 7 8 / 0 4 0 2 9 8 - 1 1 $02.00 © 1978 IPC Business Press

1 Source Book for Communicat ion Planners, Unesco, Paris, in preparation for publication in 1979.

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teristically, it treats communicat ion as a resource, capable of being allocated, conserved and redistributed like other resources.

As such it has a clear derivation from the concept of policy. For, although communicat ion policies exist in all societies, it is clearly the understanding of policy as being framed to provide some kind of social reorganization which has stimulated the growth of interest in the field. In the development context, in particular, the view of policies is more prescriptive than analytical: if a policy is articulated, it is in order that it may promote some kind of structural or social change. And this orientation, in turn, leads to a realization o f the need for planning, in order to help translate the policy s ta tement into practical action.

The principle of integration All this suggests a view of communicat ion in which emphasis is placed upon those aspects which are (a) plannable; (b) rich or demanding in resources; and (c) quantifiable, or at least capable of being evaluated in some comparat ive way. Such a view is proposed in the introduction to a for thcoming Unesco Source Book f o r Communicat ion Planners:

While the concept is not used purely to imply mass media, it is used to denote the sum of those media channels and institutions which have a technological base. This is because the emphasis upon communication as a natural resource implies a commodity which is subject to production, marketing and distribution in some way; and for such an understanding it is the market potential of communication which is being primarily highlighted. However, the understanding goes beyond that of mass media; it includes other technologically based items, such as computers, information systems, point-to-point telecommunications and telephony (which have quite a different audience relationship from broadcasting or the press). Moreover, it goes beyond the basic premises of technology to include those human aspects of human communication (information flow, diffusion) which arise out of or surround the technological base, and which may also be the subject of planning.I

What, then, are the main characteristics of this view of communicat ion planning? First, it can be seen to affect a wide variety of sectors and agencies, including the te lecommunicat ions sector. It cuts across, not only the media industries and their supporting infrastructures, but also a number of 'user ' sectors - for example, development ministries, of education, agriculture, rural development, etc, who need access to communicat ion systems to engage their own specific objectives.

Second, it is holistic: it seeks to integrate both technical and human factors, according to a consensus view of what the total communicat ion system is seeking to achieve.

It can be objected immediately that this is an ideal view: one which does not reflect current practice in the majority of countries. It can also be mentioned that the perspective is most directly suited to planning in developing countries, where the development process is itself an imperative, tending to dominate forms o f social and political organization.

All this is perfectly true, and the realities of the situation are an essential part of the argument. At present, even in the developing world, communicat ion is not normally treated as an homogeneous sector: partly because it cuts across so many interests, it does not normally figure as a coherent item in a national development plan.

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Otien it is limited to telecommunications development (in a section of the plan which sometimes includes transportation as well as tele- communication): or at best, it may be assigned to a chapter described as covering 'mass media'. But it is precisely this lack of coordination, and the resulting lack of interface and cohesion between agencies, which the approach is meant to improve.

The same kind of difficulty exists between international agencies. Clearly, most of the UN agencies are concerned with communication in one form or another, even though this may often mean little more than a public information service. The main candidates in the field are Unesco and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), but the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has a specific interest in agricultural communication, the World Health Organization (WHO) in health communication, and the International Labour Organization (ILO) in labour, and so on.

In the past, there have evidently been overlaps of responsibility and interest between different sectors and agencies. At the national level, these have usually been resolved locally, at the point of operational planning. Different arrangements have resulted: as between broadcasting organizations and telecommunications authorities, for example, in the matter of transmitter ownership and maintenance, where a variety of patterns exist around the world, usually following traditions established by colonization.

The same kind of ad hoc resolution occurred at the international level. In the case of technical operations training for broadcasting, for example, both Unesco and ITU have. at different times and in different places, been active in the field, their interest conditioned by local precedents and by related projects.

However, once we move to a strategic level of communication planning, the problem is not one of establishing mandates or resolving boundary disputes, but one of philosophy. The rationale for communication planning is one of efficiency and relevance: it seeks to create infrastructures which can be responsive to definite and precise communication needs.

In the developing world, communication planning should be able to emerge as a focus of activity, not because the problems are necessarily more acute, but because the possibility of integrated planning for a comprehensive sector of this kind can at least be envisaged.

In the industrialized world, outside the socialist countries, communication industries are often commercial, privately owned or corporately structured (especially in North America), and even where issues of public responsibility are legislated for, they are usually approached according to an individual medium or industry, rather than collectively. In the USA, where the vast majority of media industries are privately owned, the potential for regulation is limited, usually to matters of technical behaviour (eg frequency allocation) or to antimonopolism. Investigations such as those conducted by Congress are political reviews, outside the government's administrative structures. In the UK, the mechanism of the Committee or Royal Commission is similarly detached, its powers recommendatory: again it is characteristically organized by industry or medium, and where controls exist (such as in the Press Council) these are often voluntary, the creation of the industries themselves. At best, a corporate structure is evolved, as with the British Broadcasting

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Corporation (BBC). In the developing world, however, an acceptance of development priorities has usually vested far greater responsibility in planning ministries, coordinated in most cases by an economic planning board or its equivalent.

This first principle of a communication planning philosophy - that of integration - emerged pragmatically, over a period of time. At the international level, it came about through simple patterns of collaborative working - in planning for the Indian satellite cxperiment, for example, or in the establishment of the regional Asian Institute for Broadcasting Development in Kuala Lumpur, where the ITU and Unesco jointly sponsored a regional seminar for broadcasting engineers, in preparation for the 1979 WARC Conference. An interesting recent example of collaborative action has been in the planning of broadcasting in Bangladesh, where a combined Unesco/ITU team worked in 1977 on a project to relate broadcasting planning and training to the needs of rural development.

However, work on the methodology of overall communication system planning has proceeded most intensively, in recent years, within Unesco, in its Culture and Communication Sector.

Afghanistan survey Much of this activity has been directed towards the construction of planning frameworks which, while based on solid theoretical premises, also attempt to include the more arbitrary dimensions of political influence and decision making. This, at least, was the basis of a communication system survey undertaken by Unesco, with ITU assistance, in Afghanistan in 1977. The Afghanistan survey, which lasted for six months, attempted to create a medium-range plan (in the event it covered eight years) delineating the future of communication media in the country: it included radio and television, telecommuni- cations, the press, publishing, news agency development, film, audiovisual materials. It did so in the context of national development policy, including sectoral policies for major ministries of agriculture, health, education, etc.

The planning was based upon a scenario, prepared within the Unesco Secretariat, which proposed a particular methodology, based upon system principles. Starting from the premise of earlier work conducted in Thailand (during a 1974 sectoral planning mission covering educational media), it worked towards the gradual elucidation of communication objectives via a process of consensus seeking. Initially, policies were derived, embracing the various sectors and overall development goals. These were translated into alternative strategies, which were put forward for discussion. Out of these discussions, choices were made, which were incorporated into a broad system plan, to be checked back with decision makers for political relevance and acceptability. In turn, their consensus was to be used as a basis for detailed operational planning.

The summary introduction to the final report of the Afghan survey was deliberately written in a direct form, to be read by decision makers with little time to study detailed plans and little background in the technical minutiae of the field. As such, it is worth quoting:

What is this study about? It is the first s tudy o f its kind to look at the entire c o m m u n i c a t i o n sy s t em o f a

c o u n t r y - A f g h a n i s t a n - in order to see how all the pa r t s fit toge ther as a system.

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2 Communication Planning for Afghanistan: An Eight-Year Projection of Communication Development, Unesco, Paris, 1978.

All the parts of the system - newspapers, films, broadcasting, village workers, advertising, have effects on the lives of Afghans. Since government is concerned with trying to improve the lives of the common people, it is apparent that decisions made about communication will affect national development. By communication, new skills are acquired. By communication, people learn to understand different racial and cultural groups. By communication, they learn how to fit into their own national societies - what the country can do for them and what they can do for the country. This study offers a plan for the co-ordinated growth and use of communication to provide these kinds of information.

Who did the study and why? It was put together by a team of 10 people from many parts of the world - the Philippines, United Kingdom, Africa, India, Turkey and the United States of America. They were all specialists in some area of communication - radio broadcasting, films, satellites, economics, news agencies, development education etc. They began work in Kabul in June 1977, and finished there in December. The study was paid for by the Federal Republic of Germany which has a long record of interest in Afghanistan. But, of course, much of the actual work of the study was done by Afghans themselves.

How were the Afghans involved in the project ? Obviously the people of Afghanistan know more about the needs of their society than visitors possibly can. For this reason a group of about 15 representatives from ministries and departments concerned with communication worked regularly as a Communication Planning Council to pool information and problems from their individual sectors. Also a group of sectoral Presidents met to consider policy matters and problems of co-ordination between sectors. In addition, concerned departments provided the visitors with counterparts who worked with them and helped them with collecting and translating information.

How does this study fit with general planning in Afghanistan ? Many of the government's general development goals such as improving health, literacy, productivity, etc, depend on the attitudes of people - what they believe and what is important to them. Beliefs and attitudes come from the information people accept. Whether or not a farmer uses fertiliser to increase his crop production depends on what the farmer believes (which may be quite different from what he is told). Planning communication to support development goals means relating these goals to the kind of actions people will take on information they receive. This planning exercise must therefore be closely tied to the Afghan Government's Development Plan. It is the purpose of this project to relate specific Government goals to specific communication possibilities.

How should this report be used? We hope that the report will do several things: (i) help planners at all levels think more about the results they need before they

start talking, writing, or making movies. Exact goals are important; (ii) show the necessary time relationships between parts of the planning process; (iii) suggest some new or different ways of going about the information business -

based on experience in other countries with similar problems; (iv) propose to international aid organisations specific projects in communication

which should produce results if they are supported; (v) suggest means of making sure that the various sectors carrying on

communication activities co-operate in dividing up communication tasks and share communication resources intelligently. 2

The A f g h a n i s t a n su rvey con f i rmed the need, a l r eady expl ici t in the

U n e s c o c o m m u n i c a t i o n p lann ing p r o g r a m m e , for g rea te r rea l i sm and

p r a g m a t i s m in p lann ing a p p r o a c h e s . A m o n o g r a p h recent ly p r o d u c e d

on the subjec t s u m m a r i z e s the resul ts o f the e x p e r i m e n t as fo l lows:

In the first place, it is evident that a planning framework cannot be a precise

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instrument: rather it is a set of propositions, a systems design upon which planning may be based, but from which the planner must be free to depart; it is a flexible instrument, not one Of prescription.

Secondly, it is clear that the elucidation of policy is quite as much the business of the planner, if he is to be effective, as are the techniques of planning. Policies do not arise without considerable prompting and stimulus: the translation of a national development plan into a communication plan has to proceed in gradual stages.

in this process, it is also important to begin from the point of view and perspective of the sector; there is no immediately obvious consensus of interests to be found through a study of the development plan. Instead, sectoral demands have themselves to be made explicit and articulated, and then reconciled with each other. This is again a long-term undertaking. Thirdly, the commitment of policy makers to communication planning cannot be assumed. In Afghanistan, the study suffered throughout from ambiguity in both policy formulation and acceptance; even in its final stages, it could not be claimed with any certainty that a policy existed, or was approved by senior decision makers. While to some extent policy has to be forced, for the planner to proceed at all, he cannot expect that a complete and coherent policy statement will ever become available, and his planning must therefore be conducted with enough pragmatism for him to work around such constraints)

The incorpora t ion o f this set o f principles into some th ing like a m e t h o d o l o g y o f planning for c o m m u n i c a t i o n has been par t o f the Unesco p r o g r a m m e for several years past. As ment ioned above , for example , a c o m m u n i c a t i o n source b o o k is in p repara t ion , for publ icat ion in 1979, which brings together a n u m b e r o f e s says on planning techniques as applied to c o m m u n i c a t i o n : A regional As ian w o r k s h o p on c o m m u n i c a t i o n planning was held in Ma lays i a at the end o f 1977, and the materials used for this w o r k s h o p (,mostly s imulat ion, problem-or ien ted materials) are now being refined for use in similar contexts in o ther par ts o f the world. Case studies are being compi led o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n planning processes at levels r ang ing f rom the institutional to the nat ional , with an emphas i s on collect ing process da ta where little is current ly available.

3 Alan Hancock, Communication Planning, Monograph prepared for the International Commission for the Study of Communication Problems, Unesco, Paris, 1978. 40p cit, Ref 1. 5 Final Report, Committee of Experts" Meeting on Technology Transfer and Communication, Unesco, Paris, August 1977, Unesco, 1978.

Technology transfer A parallel conce rn is in the field o f t e chno logy t ransfer as applied to c o m m u n i c a t i o n . A meet ing held in 1977, in Paris, had this to say on the subject :

Until recently, concern over technology transfer has been confined primarily to technological and economic spheres. This observation applies both to international transfers, which are dominated by foreign investment and aid, and to internal transfers between LDC science systems and the production sector. As a result, some of the wider issues which relate to technology transfer, particularly its socio- cultural impacts, have been largely ignored.

While this situation applies to any industrial or agricultural technology transfer, it is particularly relevant in communications and broadcasting, since the 'product' carries a message which may affect in fundamental ways both the direction and the form of the development process; it may also influence directly viewer/listener perceptions and attitudes:

At the field level, a p r o g r a m m e to improve knowledge in this a rea began with a s tudy o f b roadcas t ing deve lopmen t in Sierra Leone : it is being followed up by an interinst i tut ional p r o g r a m m e , which hopes to conso l ida te the work o f a n u m b e r o f agencies , fol lowing a c o m m o n investigative format . The f r a m e w o r k for the pro jec t is r ep roduced in Figure 1: it m a p s the main elements to be cons idered in any analysis

TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY December1978 303

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Figure 1. Planning framework showing primary elements to be considered in the analysis of broadcasting technology transfer.

DC systems

F I

r~J Broadcostlng ~\ l

[ t J ' I Broadcasting ,-.J equipment

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! Market,ng ? - - ~ [ /

4

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Technology techmque and transfer method choice

LDC systems

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P i

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Development . . . . ~ ! ~ olans and

obJectrves * ~

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of" technology transfer in broadcasting, and includes both hardware and software considerations. Its application to planning should be clear, particularly in the attention which it can give to aspects of transfer, not always taken into account in planning processes (,such as the operations of commercial and multinational forces).

Not unnaturally, considering my professional orientation, most of the argument so far relates to Unesco, and especially to media industries. Even so, in much of what I have argued, telecommuni- cations in general is an implicit ingredient. The issue of technology transfer, for example, interests many communication agencies, and it is worth noting that in the communication sector, it is technology which provides a common thread: in particular, electronics. Not only does broadcasting depend upon electronics, but the print media are also turning increasingly to the same technology, especially for distance facilities. So, if I now turn more specifically to the tele- communications sector I must first of all ask, is there anything in the thesis which is likely to work against their specific interest? After all, should the version of communication planning being offered here be unacceptable to them, it will have little chance of wider adoption.

C o o r d i n a t i n g p l a n n i n g a p p r o a c h e s

1 have said previously that the issue of communication planning goes beyond mandates, but mandates still have a habit of signalling possible areas of disagreement. The ITU, for example, summarizes its area of competence as follows:

The purpose and fields of competence of the ITU are described in the International Telecommunication Convention. They include the maintenance and extension of international co-operation for the improvement and rational use of telecommuni- cations of all kinds as well as the promotion and development of technical facilities and their most efficient operation, in order to make telecommunications generally available to the public.

ITU is particularly involved in the allocation of the radio frequency spectrum,

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registration of radio frequency assignments and co-ordination of efforts to eliminate harmful interference between radio stations of different countries, management of the geostationary ~orbit (including frequency assignments and orbital positions), establishment of rates for all telecommunication services as low as possible consistent with efficient service and sound financial management, development and improvement of telecommunication equipment and networks in developing countries, promotion of measures for ensuring the safety of life when telecommuni- cations is involved, and promulgation of studies, resolutions, regulations, recommendations and opinions relevant to telecommunication matters.

Unesco's communication programme, on the other hand, as defined by various sessions of its General Conference, has now been broadened, to range from the free flow of information and development of media to the processes and effects of communicat ion within society and the elaboration of plans and policies for integrated communication systems. Thus, Unesco is concerned with all communication applications, and considers it essential that the development and use of communicat ion technologies should be interrelated.

This comparison of roles is made not so much to establish boundary conditions, as to attempt to lay down foundations for practical collaboration. And, indeed, that is very much the spirit of the moment. One example is in the newly established International Commission for the Study of Communicat ion Problems, working under the aegis of Unesco but drawing information and submissions from a variety of world agencies. More direct still is a request from the United Nations General Assembly to submit to its 33rd session a report on progress, from 1962 to the present day, in the field of mass communications for social progress and development: in this report, the ITU and Unesco have together provided significant sections.

We should go further, however, to ask if there is room for anything more than simple collaboration between the agencies of communication and telecommunication. Obviously, the notion of coordination, even of integration, is not a difficult one to agree to; but is further progress still inhibited by conflicting planning styles and approaches?

I would argue that, although this may have been true in the past, it is no longer so. In the past, telecommunications planning has been predominantly at a sectoral and an operational level; it has been characterized as technical, quantitative, mechanistic, while other kinds of communication planning have been less systematic, humanistic, pragmatic. It is possible that this position is changing on both sides, as both communication and telecommunications planning seek to achieve a broader, longer-range perspective.

In the first place, as has been shown, the planning approach of Unesco has veered more towards the systematic, within the limits of managerial styles, decision-making habits and creativity. In tele- communications planning, at the international level there are already signs that a converse, and therefore complementary, kind of trend is occurring. For example, a recent report from the ITU refers to new studies of telecommunications development in the following terms:

it is generally recognised that the economic development of a country or region is closely linked to the existence of valious forms of communication. Telecommuni- cations have one of the most important r61es in the general communication complex of a country.

Economic studies are a field of study greatly different from the traditional

TELECOMMUNICATIONS POLICY December 1978 305

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e Progress Achieved in the Development of Mass Communicat ion Systems, Report submitted to the 33rd session of the UN General Assembly by Unesco in association with the International Tele- communication Union. 7W.D. Spence and Co, Pty, Ltd, Sydney, 1977, contribution to Communicat ion Planning Source Book, op cit, Ref 1.

activity of the CCITT. However, the CCITT attaches particular importance to them. Texts already published describe how one can forecast the future demand of telephone traffic from economic considerations; the place and r61e of telecommuni- cations in the national economy - including that part of the economy representing the necessary investment for telephone services; conditions for the creation of national industry. These texts also consider other economic and financial factors. affecting various aspects of telecommunications policy and of the telecommuni- cations cadre. 6

This inc reas ing b read th a nd flexibility can also be d i sce rned at the level o f na t iona l t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s p l ann ing . In a repor t p repared by a g roup o f A u s t r a l i a n c o n s u l t a n t s for Unesco , we find the s ame kind of c o n c e r n :

In to-day's environment attempts to forecast even a few years ahead are regarded with considerable scepticism. Attempts to forecast the long term future, say, twenty-five years ahead, are frequently viewed as lacking practical value. Yet, because of the often long economic lives of various facilities once they are installed, it is in this latter environment that many strategic planners in the communications industry must operate.

However, noting the huge amounts of resources in question and the enormous costs of modern mistakes, successful attempts to grapple with this planning problem would promise significant benefits if uncertainties could be minimised. M'ost sections of the Communication Industry cannot adopt the stance of simply letting economic and technological forces run their course because they are no longer able to respond quickly enough to change. Therefore, the impossibility of prediction of economic, technological, social and political forces 20 to 25 years into the future does not invalidate the need for long range planning.

Valuable long term planning results are achieved by the systematic examination of alternative likely futures, based on combinations of identified trends and possible events. In other words, instead of attempting to predict a single unique feature - either nationally or internationally - planners analyse uncertain future events and gain an understanding of the implications of a particular circumstance, or set of circumstances. In this way an organisation improves its capacity to deal with change by being able to identify new emergencies and opportunities at the time they start_to appear on the future horizon and plan accordingly. More importantly, leading indicators are identified and monitored, and contingency plans and strategic actions continually updated as new trends or developments emerge.

The refinement of traditional forecasting techniques does not necessarily provide communication planners with this ability. This is because traditional extrapolative forecasting techniques do not allow for the incorporation of unexpected developments into the planning process. Extrapolative techniques generally rely on building a picture of the future starting from the present and using known trends from the past or known plans for future developments.

Consequently, such techniques lose much of their usefulness and power in a field such as communications where, because of new socioeconomic developments and rapid techological change, the amount of relevant history on which to base projections is usually very short.

in approaching long term forecasting, we are proposing that the examination of alternative possible futures is a more realistic and practical way of identifying strategic actions than is the application of a single future forecast. It has been our recent experience to apply these forecasting techniques to studies concerned with the future of communications in Australia, and the forecasting and evaluation of several alternative possible futures proved invaluable.

Futures research, using scenarios, technological prospects and cross-impact analysis is an approach which ameliorates some of the short-comings and difficulties that one is faced with if one seeks to apply traditional forecasting techniques to a study of the long term future. 7

There is, therefore, a point of c o n v e r g e n c e be tween p l a n n e r s of both kinds, in the case of t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s p l anne r s , there is less

306 T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S POLICY December1978

8 Telecom 2000: An Experience of the Long-Term Deve lopment o f Tele- communications in Australia, Australian Telecommunications Commission, 1975. See Anthony Newstead, 'Australia's Telecom 2000', Telecommunications Poficy, Vol 1, No 2, 1977, pp 158-162.

Communications and telecommunications

certainty than hitherto that the present technological climate will provide an adequate base for extrapolating even short-term futures. Twenty years ag~; t~leeommunications planners looked ahead with some certainty to land-based transmission and distribution systems across countries and continents; today the intervention o f the satellite has made much of their earlier planning obsolete. For the general communicat ion planner, the position is somewhat reversed: what was pragmatic and operationally based, now looks more for systematization and a coherent planning methodology. The rationale tbr both is a desire to recognize uncertainties, while still making the most of a systems orientation.

Yet the convergence is closer still. Both communica t ion planners and telecommunications planners are becoming increasingly pre- occupied with the modern issues of communi ty planning: o f access and participation in policy making and of 'open planning' styles.

One may quote here from one of the best known of the tele- communicat ions plans - that for Australia, in the report Telecorn 2000:

How far can telecommunication development planning be taken out of centralised control and devolved to the local community level? This is a question frequently posed by social planners, but one which raises formidable problems for tele- communications management. The idea of grass-roots community planning may be attractive in principle, but it has inherent and substantial difficulties stemming from the integral nature of networks such as the telephone or telex network. Firstly, piece-meal development of a network must result in vastly increased costs due to:

- the smaller-sized plant units of development - for example, the pair-kilometre cost of subscribers' cable increased rapidly with smaller capacity cables;

- problems of relatively random inter-connection of communities and of achieving technical compatibility;

- differing service requirements and standards. One could conclude, then, that because of the increased cost, technological problems and resource constraints, community planning of network-type selective services is impracticable in the present era. But this may not always be so. Technological progress - for example, minicomputer controlled switching and optical fibre distribution, coupled with increasing central building costs - might change the future cost structure in such a way that it is not so dependent on the scale of service penetration and on centralised control equipment. In the long term, it is not beyond the bounds of reason to imagine a proliferation of small tele- communications entities organised to accommodate flexibly the future varying needs of the local communities which they serve.

We should, then, keep an open mind about the future and, meanwhile, gain experience of how community planning could operate for those local services where it appears practicable. We need to gain experience of how to organise, manage and support this concept, to see whether communities' responsibilities and capabilities can develop to match the task effectively - although there will certainly be mistakes

- and to see whether the telecommunications utility image is improved and public confidence heightened through our responsiveness to current community aspirations. 8

Although the arguments are drawn from telecommunications, the principles explored have a far wider social significance. They mirror, almost exactly, those issues and principles which can be found in Unesco-based discussions of communi ty participation, in mass media or communi ty media fields.

This is where the true convergence lies: in a realization, by engineers and social planners alike, that the focus of communica t ion systems should be on the user; and that planning, if it is to serve

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socially useful ends, has finally to be based upon popular involvement and consensus.

With such a shared orientation, the possibilities for joint working are better and more specific than ever before. This is very much to our advantage as the needs are enormous in training, in field studies, in methodological development. What is in fact needed more than ever today is a new kind of professional: not a Jack o f all trades, but a general planner with a familiarity with many techniques - technical, sociological, managerial, economic - who can see across the inhibiting boundaries of specialized disciplines, and come up with a new, creative and sensitive perspective. Such planners may belong to agencies - national or international - but they will not be agency- bound. Indeed, one of their first tasks has to be to cut across the infrastructures of the agencies which they serve, to help realize the integrity of the communicat ion process, and the breadth of its reach.

308 T E L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S POLICY December197,C~