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Conference on Climate Scenarios, Financial Risk and Strategic Planning

October 31, 2017 - November 1, 2017 The Ned Hotel

London United Kingdom

Day 1: Using scenario analysis for assessing and disclosing climate-related risks and opportunities

Hosted by the FSB TCFD

Day 1 will provide a high-level overview of the TCFD recommendations with regard to the use of scenario analysis;

what scenario analysis is and why it is useful for assessing climate-related risks; how climate-related scenario

analysis works in practice today – who is using it; experiences; and available tools.

8.30-9.00: Registration and breakfast

9.00-9.15: Welcoming remarks

9.15-9.45: Keynote address – Business and climate risk: scenario analysis, strategic resilience and financial risk

9.45-10.15: Session 1: Scenario Analysis: What is it and how can it help business deal with climate risk?

Objective: This session will discuss how companies can analyse the resiliency of their corporate strategies

under conditions of uncertainty using scenario analysis and the importance of thinking about a range of

plausible futures and thinking outside the business-as-usual box.

o What is scenario analysis?

o How can scenario analysis help businesses in assessing climate-related risks and strategic

resilience in the face of climate risks?

o What’s the relationship between scenario analysis and science-based targets?

10.15-10.45: Session 2: IEA and IAMC/IPCC scenarios: What are they and how are they used?

Objective: Scenario producers explain their work.

o What types of scenarios do the IEA and academic institutions produce?

o What is the structure and content of these scenarios?

o How might these scenarios help businesses assess potential climate change impacts? What are

the challenges in using these scenarios in a business context?

10.45-11.00: Coffee break and networking

11.00-12.30: Session 3: Current use of climate-related scenario analysis in various business sectors

Objective: Discuss examples of how scenarios are being used in practice. This session will present brief

overviews of how various firms in a range of sectors use scenario analysis to assess and identify climate-

related risks, conduct strategic planning, integrate climate risk into strategic and risk management

frameworks, and communicate strategic resilience to stakeholders.

o 11.00-11.45: Oil & gas sector (45 min)

o 11.45-12.30: Electric utility sector (45 min)

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12.30-1.30: Lunch

1.30-3.00: Session 3 continued.

o 1.30-2.15: Transportation (45 min)

o 2.15-3.00: Materials sector (45 min)

3.00-3.30: Coffee break and networking

3.30-4.15: Session 3 continued.

o 3.30-4.15: Financial sector (45 min)

4.15-5.00: Session 4: Overview of selected existing and emerging scenario tools

Objective: This session will briefly showcase some of the tools and data available for use by businesses in

conducting climate-related scenario analysis.

5.00-5.05: Wrap-up for day 1

5.05-7.00: Reception

Day 2: Climate scenarios for improved strategic and financial risk analysis – pushing the analytical

frontier

Hosted by the Bank of England

Day 2 aims to bring together business practitioners, leading researchers from academia, and finance professionals

to discuss in more detail how climate-related scenarios can be used for strategic and financial risk analysis and how

scenarios could be improved. The goal is to highlight successful approaches, and identify further work and

collaboration needed in this area. This day will be conducted under Chatham House rules.

8.30-9.00: Registration and breakfast

9.00-9.30: Keynote speech

9.30-10.30: Session 1: Setting the stage: The scenarios research landscape

Objective: Highlight the key areas of work by leading scenario producers.

o Cutting edge scenarios: what are the latest developments?

o What are the key assumptions in scenarios and why do they matter?

o What are current limitations?

10.30-11.00: Coffee break and networking

11.00-12.00: Session 2: Approaches for using scenarios for strategic decision making

Objective: Outline the various ways in which businesses can use scenarios.

o Macro to micro: analytical tools for connecting scenarios with business plans

o Principles for applying scenarios

o An academic perspective on scenario-based decision making

o Experiences from making scenarios available for businesses

12.00-1.00: Lunch

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1.00-2.00: Session 3: Using scenarios to inform financial planning, decisions and investments

Objective: Outline the various ways in which financial institutions can use scenarios for investment decision making

o How can scenarios help assess financial risks?

o Methods and principles for using scenario analysis for financial risk analysis

o How can scenarios be connected with business plans?

2.00-2.30: Coffee break and networking

2.30-4.00: Session 4: Parallel breakout workshops: Pushing the frontier (90 minutes each)

The aim of the breakout sessions is to bring together scenario producers, academics and business experts to discuss the different approaches for implementing scenario analysis and how scenarios themselves can be improved. The workshops will kick-off through short presentations and lead into open discussions, under Chatham House rules.

Workshop 1: Taking existing approaches further: Scenario analysis in the oil, gas and power sectors o Objective: Many oil, gas and utilities are already using scenario analysis and have developed

advanced technical capabilities. In this workshop they can exchange experiences and develop new ideas, together with academics and financial sector experts. Jointly with scenario producers, they can identify what methodological challenges and data issues are and how they can be overcome.

Workshop 2: Making scenarios work for other sectors (including transportation, heavy industry, land use)

o Objective: The aim of this workshop is to push the frontier in sectors where climate-related scenario analysis has been less common. Participants will discuss what scenarios are most appropriate for the transport, heavy industry and land use sectors. Participants may want to discuss how this can be applied to the financial sector.

4.00-4.15: Session 5: Wrap-up and next steps

Objective: The day’s chair will summarise key aspects of the day and suggest avenues for further work.

o Scenario producers: how to make scenarios more useful for business?

o Research and business: towards approaches and tools for using scenarios in risk assessment and

strategic planning

4.15: Close