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AIM Dr. Morita Memorial Symposium AIM Dr. Morita Memorial Symposium October 4th, 2003 / NIES, Tsukub October 4th, 2003 / NIES, Tsukub 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan) 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan) AIM, it AIM, it s evolution and prospects s evolution and prospects 2. Prof. 2. Prof. N.Nakicenovic N.Nakicenovic (Austria) (Austria) Dr. Morita's activity at IPCC Dr. Morita's activity at IPCC 3. Prof. 3. Prof. P.R.Shukla P.R.Shukla (India) (India) Tribute to Dr. Tribute to Dr. Tsuneyuki Tsuneyuki Morita Morita 4. Dr. 4. Dr. K.Jiang K.Jiang (China) (China) Contribution of AIM/China to Chinese environmental policy Contribution of AIM/China to Chinese environmental policy 5. Mr. 5. Mr. H.Kobayashi H.Kobayashi (Japan) (Japan) Contribution of AIM to environmental policy making process Contribution of AIM to environmental policy making process in Japan in Japan Coordinator Prof. S. Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka Nishioka

Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

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Page 1: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

AIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumAIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, TsukubaOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, Tsukuba

1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)AIM, itAIM, it’’s evolution and prospectss evolution and prospects

2. Prof. 2. Prof. N.NakicenovicN.Nakicenovic (Austria)(Austria)Dr. Morita's activity at IPCCDr. Morita's activity at IPCC

3. Prof. 3. Prof. P.R.ShuklaP.R.Shukla (India)(India)Tribute to Dr. Tribute to Dr. TsuneyukiTsuneyuki MoritaMorita

4. Dr. 4. Dr. K.JiangK.Jiang (China)(China)Contribution of AIM/China to Chinese environmental policyContribution of AIM/China to Chinese environmental policy

5. Mr. 5. Mr. H.KobayashiH.Kobayashi (Japan)(Japan)Contribution of AIM to environmental policy making processContribution of AIM to environmental policy making processin Japanin Japan

Coordinator Prof. S. Coordinator Prof. S. NishiokaNishioka

Page 2: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Prof. Hu Xiulian: Energy Research Institute, ChinaDr. Tay Yang. Jung: Council on Energy and Environment, Korea

Institute of Global Environment Strategy, JapanProf. Li Jin: Kongju Communication Arts CollegeProf. Lee Dong Kung: Soeul National University, KoreaRon Sands: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Participants from overseas

AIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumAIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, TsukubaOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, Tsukuba

Coordinator Prof. S. Coordinator Prof. S. NishiokaNishioka

Page 3: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

AIM Morita Memorial SymposiumAIM Morita Memorial SymposiumOctober 4October 4thth, 2003, 2003

On behalf of AIM Japan TeamOn behalf of AIM Japan TeamYuzuruYuzuru MatsuokaMatsuoka

ProfessorProfessorChair of Integrated Assessment ModelingChair of Integrated Assessment Modeling

Graduate School of Global Environmental StudiesGraduate School of Global Environmental StudiesKyoto UniversityKyoto University

AIMAIM, It, It’’s Evolution and s Evolution and ProspectsProspects

AIMAIM

Page 4: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

AIM, Past and Future1990.7 Start of AIM Project1990.7 Start of AIM Project

19931993~~94 AIM 194 AIM 1stst version version

1993 Global Long1993 Global Long--term Scenarioterm Scenario

1994.11 Nikkei Prize1994.11 Nikkei Prize

1995.6 Start of International 1995.6 Start of International CollaborationCollaboration

1996.2 Start of AIM International 1996.2 Start of AIM International WorkshopWorkshop

19961996~~9797 Dispute on Dispute on JapanJapan’’s Reduction s Reduction Target for COPTarget for COP33

1997.8 Start of AIM Training 1997.8 Start of AIM Training WorkshopWorkshop

1997.121997.12 COP3COP32000.4 IPCC SRES2000.4 IPCC SRES

2001.4 IPCC TAR2001.4 IPCC TAR20022002~~ AIM Strategic DatabaseAIM Strategic Database

20022002~~ AIM/ecosystemAIM/ecosystem2003 Dispute on Carbon Tax2003 Dispute on Carbon Tax

1994 1994 ECOECO--AsiaAsia((LTPPLTPP))

2002~ APEIS(IEA)

JapanJapan’’s Scenario to s Scenario to Low Carbon SocietyLow Carbon Society

19981998~~ AIM/materialAIM/material2000 2000 AIM/trendAIM/trend

**** **** IPCC Forth ARIPCC Forth AR

Debate on Japanese Low Debate on Japanese Low Carbon Society in Mid to Carbon Society in Mid to LangLang--term Futureterm Future

1992 Enduse model of Energy 1992 Enduse model of Energy consumption, AIM/enduseconsumption, AIM/enduse

20012001 Three Scenarios Three Scenarios toward Eco Societytoward Eco Society

2004 MA Report2004 MA Report

2002 GEO32002 GEO3

2000 GEO22000 GEO2

1994 IS92 1994 IS92 EvaluationEvaluation

Page 5: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

IPCCUNEPOECD

ECO-AsiaAPEISIEA

UNU/IASAPNEMFWWF

Govern-mentsCompa-

nies

Japan team

China Team

India Team

Korea Team

Thailand Team

Malaysia Team

Population

Lifestyle

GHG Emission Modules

Climate ChangeModules

Supporting Policyprocess

Model

Developm

ent

Land useEnergy

TechnologyEconomics

Atmospheric Chemistry

Climate Change

OceanDynamics

Carbon Cycle

Vegetation

Sea LevelRise Human

Health

Agriculture

Water Resources

Impacts and Adaptation Modules

Page 6: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Dispute on JapanDispute on Japan’’s Reduction Target for s Reduction Target for COPCOP33

((Projection with AIM/enduse, 1997Projection with AIM/enduse, 1997))

97年8月3日朝日97年10月17日

朝日 97年10月5日毎日97年10月20日

Page 7: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Carbon Tax Rate and Required additional Investments for Carbon Tax Rate and Required additional Investments for JapanJapan’’s s ““Outline for Promotion of Efforts to Prevent Global Outline for Promotion of Efforts to Prevent Global WarmingWarming”” (AIM(AIM/enduse,2003) /enduse,2003)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2000 2005 2010

エネ

ルギ

ー起

源二

酸化

炭素

排出

量(1

990年

=100

)

技術一定

市場選択

3,000円/tC

15,000円/tC

30,000円/tC

補助金ケース

113.7

107.6

105.7

103.6

100.2

97.6

120

110

100

90

802000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sion c

om

pare

d to 1

990(-

Technology Fix

Cheapest Choice

¥3000/t-C

¥15000/t-C

¥30000/t-C

Subsidy Case

Page 8: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Emission Path to Atmospheric StabilizationEmission Path to Atmospheric Stabilization

Page 9: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Dr. Dr. TsuneyukiTsuneyuki MoritaMorita’’s s

Contributions to IPCCContributions to IPCC

Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

(IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology

Page 10: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

……On behalf of the Intergovernmental On behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)……

……On behalf of the Board of the On behalf of the Board of the Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentMillennium Ecosystem Assessment……

……On behalf of the International On behalf of the International

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)(IIASA)……

Page 11: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Climate change scenariosClimate change scenarios

Robust technology/policy measuresRobust technology/policy measures

LongLong--term Development Scenariosterm Development Scenarios

Stabilization scenarios (PostStabilization scenarios (Post--SRES)SRES)

GHG emission scenarios (SRES)GHG emission scenarios (SRES)

Page 12: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

GtC

A2-750 ASF A2-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MESSAGE A1FI-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MiniCAM A1B-750 PETROA2-750 PETRO A1B-650 AIMA1B-650 MARIA A1T-650 MARIAB2-650 MARIA A1B-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MESSAGE A1FI-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MiniCAM A1B-650 PETROA2-650 PETRO A1B-550 AIMA2-550 AIM B1-550 AIMB2-550 AIM A1FI-550 AIMA2-550 ASF A1B-550 IMAGEA1B-550 LDNE A2-550 LDNEB1-550 LDNE B2-550 LDNEA1FI-550 LDNE A1T-550 LDNEA1B-550 MARIA A1T-550 MARIAB1-550 MARIA B2-550 MARIAA1B-550 MESSAGE A2-550 MESSAGEB2-550 MESSAGE A1FI-550 MESSAGEA1FI-550 MESSAGE A1T-550 MESSAGEA1B-550 MiniCAM A2-550 MiniCAMB1-550 MiniCAM B2H-550 MiniCAMB2L-550 MiniCAM A1FI-550 MiniCAMA1B-550 PETRO A2-550 PETROB1-550EA W orldScan B1-550-DR W orldScanB2-550-EA W orldScan A1B-550-EA W orldScanA1B-550-DR W orldScan A2-550-EA W orldScanA2-550-DR W orldScan A1B-450 AIMB1-450 IMAGE A1T-450 MARIAA1B-450 MARIA B1-450 MARIAB2-450 MARIA A1B-450 MESSAGEA1FI-450 MESSAGE A1FI-450 MESSAGEA1T-450 MESSAGE B1-450 MiniCAMA1F1-450 MiniCAM A1B-450 PETROA2-450 PETRO B1-450-DR W orldScanB1-450-EA W orldScan B2-450-EA W orldScanB2-450-DR W orldScan A1B-450-EA W orldScanA1B-450-DR W orldScan A2-450-EA W orldScanW RE550 W GI550SRES-Minim um SRES-Max im umDatabase Max Database Min.

Maximum inliterature

Minimum in literature

Maximumin SRES

Minimumin SRES

Page 13: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGlobal Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Nakicenovic IPCC 2001

Page 14: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Our dear friend and colleague is gone, leaving a void in our community and in our lives that can never be filled...

He will live forever in our hearts, in our thoughts and in our scientific work ‒ and we’ll continue to miss him every day!

Page 15: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Tribute to Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita

Page 16: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Working with Dr. Morita

Building Models

The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model The AIM ApproachCCSR/NIES

CGCM

AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)

Integrated modeling

AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and

Bottom-up model

Overview of complex modelOverview of complex model

Capital Labor Energy PollutionOther inter-mediate input

Solidwaste

Household

Inve

stm

ent

Final consumption

Resource input

Env.industry

Disposal

ReuseWaste

management

Resource input

Final disposal siteCO2

Environmental Investment

Intermediatetreatment

Government

Tax, subsidy,public service, and public investment

Productionsector

Market

AIM/ Material model

Page 17: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Linking Policies

Working with Dr. Morita

IIM Ahmedabad

India- Electricity Generation

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years

PJ

Coal

HydroNuclear

CRW & NEW

IIM Ahmedabad

Energy Consumption by Demand Sector

0

10

20

30

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years

Exa

Joul

es

Industry

Transport

Others

Agriculture

1995 Baseline

2032 Fortress World

2032 Policy Reform

WATER CONSUMPTION

0.0000

100.0000

200.0000

300.0000

400.0000

500.0000

600.0000

700.0000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

YEAR

CO

NS

UM

PT

ION

(km

^3/ye

ar)

MF

FW

PR

GT

1 40 200 1000 5000

m3/ha/yearChange of water consumption from 1995 to 2032(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.02000 2005 2010

Year

GD

P ch

ange

[tri.

Yen

at 1

995

pric

e]

2000 2030

SO2 from LPS

20002030

CO2 from LPS

Page 18: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

IPCC

Working with Dr. Morita

Page 19: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Eco-Asia/ APEIS Project

Working with Dr. Morita

Page 20: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Contribution of AIM/China to Chinese Environmental policy

Jiang Kejun, Hu Xiulian

Energy Research Institute(ERI)National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)

AIM International Workshop, Oct.4, 2003, Tsukuba

Page 21: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

AIM/China collaboration

Started from 1994, ERI modeling team collaborated with AIM team to develop AIM/end use for China. After nearly a decade collaboration, ERI modeling team now is a leading research team for modeling and policy assessment in China in the area of climate change and energy environment.

Page 22: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Collaboration activities

AIM/end use model for ChinaSO2/NOx emission inventoryAIM/Local for ChinaAIM-LinkageAIM/ImpactEast Asia International Workshop on IAMIAM Training WorkshopFellowship and Student

Page 23: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Contribution to policy making process

Worked with Climate Change Group in China as key research groupWorked with Municipal and Provincial governmentInvolved in governmental strategy research projectParticipated international negotiation activities as technical supporterParticipating Climate Change Strategy design in ChinaParticipating China Technology Development Strategy development

Page 24: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Contribution to research activities in China

Development of IPAC modelPaper and book publishedInternational workshop and domestic modeling workshopInvolvement in IPCC activitiesSupport relative research project(more than 10 projects)

Page 25: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)
Page 26: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

実るほど頭が垂れる稲穂かな

Page 27: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Contribution of AIM to Contribution of AIM to Environmental Policy Making Environmental Policy Making

Process in JapanProcess in Japan

HikaruHikaru KobayashiKobayashiCouncillorCouncillor, Minister's Secretariat, Minister's SecretariatMinistry of the EnvironmentMinistry of the Environment

Page 28: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

August, 1994: Establishment of Commission of the Environment Agency (EA), “Research committee on tax and charge related to the environment (chairman: Prof. Hiromitsu Ishi, Hitotsubashi Univ.)”

April, 1995: At COP1 (Berlin), Comment of Director-General of EA, Mr. Miyashita: “Japan is considering to host the third or subsequent session of the COP.”

April, 1995: Adoption of the Berlin Mandate at COP1 (Berlin)

July, 1995: Establishment of “Special committee on global warming problem” under the Commission on global environmental problems

June, 1996: First draft by “Research committee on tax and charge related to the environment”

Policy making process in Japan based on the Berlin Mandate

Page 29: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

May, 1996: Approval of hosting COP3 at a Cabinet meeting

July, 1996: At COP2 (Geneva), announcement by Director-General of EA, Mr. Iwatare, of Japan’s candidacy for hosting COP3

October, 1996: Interim report by “Special committee on global warming problem” under the Commission of global environmental problems

December, 1996: First Japanese proposal: p & q

October, 1997: Second Japanese proposal: 5% as reduction rate

October, 1997: Final report by “Research committee of tax and charge related to the environment”

Policy making process in Japan base on the Berlin Mandate continued

Page 30: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Main issues related to the AIM model

1. Assumption of crude steel production is too small.

2. Assumption of energy efficiency improvement of vehicles is too high.

3. Assumption of electricity production by electric utilities in 2010 is too small.

4. Assumption of carbon tax (30,000 yen/tC) is too expensive and unrealistic.

(in September 1997)

Page 31: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Mainichi NewspaperOctober 7, 1997

EU criticized Japanese proposal severely

MITI-domination unchecked

EA model found contradictory

STOP Global Warming,Kyoto, 1997

Page 32: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Gap of estimated CO2 emissionsderived from the trend of technologies and selection of equipment

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(MtC

)+23.5%

-71.4%

Emission in“Frozen Technology”case

Emission from existingequipment

CO2 emissions results by using AIM/Enduse modelsubmitted to Central Environment Council, August 1997.

Year

Page 33: Coordinator Prof. S. Nishioka 1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)

Prof. (Dr.) Tsuneyuki Morita (1950 – 2003)Director, Social and Environmental Systems Division,

National Institute for Environmental StudiesProfessor, Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology,

Tokyo Institute of TechnologyAdjunct Professor, Institute of Advanced Studies,

United Nations University