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AIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumAIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, TsukubaOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, Tsukuba
1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)1. Prof. Y. Matsuoka (Japan)AIM, itAIM, it’’s evolution and prospectss evolution and prospects
2. Prof. 2. Prof. N.NakicenovicN.Nakicenovic (Austria)(Austria)Dr. Morita's activity at IPCCDr. Morita's activity at IPCC
3. Prof. 3. Prof. P.R.ShuklaP.R.Shukla (India)(India)Tribute to Dr. Tribute to Dr. TsuneyukiTsuneyuki MoritaMorita
4. Dr. 4. Dr. K.JiangK.Jiang (China)(China)Contribution of AIM/China to Chinese environmental policyContribution of AIM/China to Chinese environmental policy
5. Mr. 5. Mr. H.KobayashiH.Kobayashi (Japan)(Japan)Contribution of AIM to environmental policy making processContribution of AIM to environmental policy making processin Japanin Japan
Coordinator Prof. S. Coordinator Prof. S. NishiokaNishioka
Prof. Hu Xiulian: Energy Research Institute, ChinaDr. Tay Yang. Jung: Council on Energy and Environment, Korea
Institute of Global Environment Strategy, JapanProf. Li Jin: Kongju Communication Arts CollegeProf. Lee Dong Kung: Soeul National University, KoreaRon Sands: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Participants from overseas
AIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumAIM Dr. Morita Memorial SymposiumOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, TsukubaOctober 4th, 2003 / NIES, Tsukuba
Coordinator Prof. S. Coordinator Prof. S. NishiokaNishioka
AIM Morita Memorial SymposiumAIM Morita Memorial SymposiumOctober 4October 4thth, 2003, 2003
On behalf of AIM Japan TeamOn behalf of AIM Japan TeamYuzuruYuzuru MatsuokaMatsuoka
ProfessorProfessorChair of Integrated Assessment ModelingChair of Integrated Assessment Modeling
Graduate School of Global Environmental StudiesGraduate School of Global Environmental StudiesKyoto UniversityKyoto University
AIMAIM, It, It’’s Evolution and s Evolution and ProspectsProspects
AIMAIM
AIM, Past and Future1990.7 Start of AIM Project1990.7 Start of AIM Project
19931993~~94 AIM 194 AIM 1stst version version
1993 Global Long1993 Global Long--term Scenarioterm Scenario
1994.11 Nikkei Prize1994.11 Nikkei Prize
1995.6 Start of International 1995.6 Start of International CollaborationCollaboration
1996.2 Start of AIM International 1996.2 Start of AIM International WorkshopWorkshop
19961996~~9797 Dispute on Dispute on JapanJapan’’s Reduction s Reduction Target for COPTarget for COP33
1997.8 Start of AIM Training 1997.8 Start of AIM Training WorkshopWorkshop
1997.121997.12 COP3COP32000.4 IPCC SRES2000.4 IPCC SRES
2001.4 IPCC TAR2001.4 IPCC TAR20022002~~ AIM Strategic DatabaseAIM Strategic Database
20022002~~ AIM/ecosystemAIM/ecosystem2003 Dispute on Carbon Tax2003 Dispute on Carbon Tax
1994 1994 ECOECO--AsiaAsia((LTPPLTPP))
2002~ APEIS(IEA)
JapanJapan’’s Scenario to s Scenario to Low Carbon SocietyLow Carbon Society
19981998~~ AIM/materialAIM/material2000 2000 AIM/trendAIM/trend
**** **** IPCC Forth ARIPCC Forth AR
Debate on Japanese Low Debate on Japanese Low Carbon Society in Mid to Carbon Society in Mid to LangLang--term Futureterm Future
1992 Enduse model of Energy 1992 Enduse model of Energy consumption, AIM/enduseconsumption, AIM/enduse
20012001 Three Scenarios Three Scenarios toward Eco Societytoward Eco Society
2004 MA Report2004 MA Report
2002 GEO32002 GEO3
2000 GEO22000 GEO2
1994 IS92 1994 IS92 EvaluationEvaluation
IPCCUNEPOECD
ECO-AsiaAPEISIEA
UNU/IASAPNEMFWWF
Govern-mentsCompa-
nies
Japan team
China Team
India Team
Korea Team
Thailand Team
Malaysia Team
Population
Lifestyle
GHG Emission Modules
Climate ChangeModules
Supporting Policyprocess
Model
Developm
ent
Land useEnergy
TechnologyEconomics
Atmospheric Chemistry
Climate Change
OceanDynamics
Carbon Cycle
Vegetation
Sea LevelRise Human
Health
Agriculture
Water Resources
Impacts and Adaptation Modules
Dispute on JapanDispute on Japan’’s Reduction Target for s Reduction Target for COPCOP33
((Projection with AIM/enduse, 1997Projection with AIM/enduse, 1997))
97年8月3日朝日97年10月17日
朝日 97年10月5日毎日97年10月20日
Carbon Tax Rate and Required additional Investments for Carbon Tax Rate and Required additional Investments for JapanJapan’’s s ““Outline for Promotion of Efforts to Prevent Global Outline for Promotion of Efforts to Prevent Global WarmingWarming”” (AIM(AIM/enduse,2003) /enduse,2003)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2005 2010
エネ
ルギ
ー起
源二
酸化
炭素
排出
量(1
990年
=100
)
技術一定
市場選択
3,000円/tC
15,000円/tC
30,000円/tC
補助金ケース
113.7
107.6
105.7
103.6
100.2
97.6
120
110
100
90
802000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion c
om
pare
d to 1
990(-
)
Technology Fix
Cheapest Choice
¥3000/t-C
¥15000/t-C
¥30000/t-C
Subsidy Case
Emission Path to Atmospheric StabilizationEmission Path to Atmospheric Stabilization
Dr. Dr. TsuneyukiTsuneyuki MoritaMorita’’s s
Contributions to IPCCContributions to IPCC
Nebojša NakićenovićInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA) and Vienna University of Technology
……On behalf of the Intergovernmental On behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)……
……On behalf of the Board of the On behalf of the Board of the Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentMillennium Ecosystem Assessment……
……On behalf of the International On behalf of the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)(IIASA)……
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Climate change scenariosClimate change scenarios
Robust technology/policy measuresRobust technology/policy measures
LongLong--term Development Scenariosterm Development Scenarios
Stabilization scenarios (PostStabilization scenarios (Post--SRES)SRES)
GHG emission scenarios (SRES)GHG emission scenarios (SRES)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
GtC
A2-750 ASF A2-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MESSAGE A1FI-750 MESSAGEA1FI-750 MiniCAM A1B-750 PETROA2-750 PETRO A1B-650 AIMA1B-650 MARIA A1T-650 MARIAB2-650 MARIA A1B-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MESSAGE A1FI-650 MESSAGEA1FI-650 MiniCAM A1B-650 PETROA2-650 PETRO A1B-550 AIMA2-550 AIM B1-550 AIMB2-550 AIM A1FI-550 AIMA2-550 ASF A1B-550 IMAGEA1B-550 LDNE A2-550 LDNEB1-550 LDNE B2-550 LDNEA1FI-550 LDNE A1T-550 LDNEA1B-550 MARIA A1T-550 MARIAB1-550 MARIA B2-550 MARIAA1B-550 MESSAGE A2-550 MESSAGEB2-550 MESSAGE A1FI-550 MESSAGEA1FI-550 MESSAGE A1T-550 MESSAGEA1B-550 MiniCAM A2-550 MiniCAMB1-550 MiniCAM B2H-550 MiniCAMB2L-550 MiniCAM A1FI-550 MiniCAMA1B-550 PETRO A2-550 PETROB1-550EA W orldScan B1-550-DR W orldScanB2-550-EA W orldScan A1B-550-EA W orldScanA1B-550-DR W orldScan A2-550-EA W orldScanA2-550-DR W orldScan A1B-450 AIMB1-450 IMAGE A1T-450 MARIAA1B-450 MARIA B1-450 MARIAB2-450 MARIA A1B-450 MESSAGEA1FI-450 MESSAGE A1FI-450 MESSAGEA1T-450 MESSAGE B1-450 MiniCAMA1F1-450 MiniCAM A1B-450 PETROA2-450 PETRO B1-450-DR W orldScanB1-450-EA W orldScan B2-450-EA W orldScanB2-450-DR W orldScan A1B-450-EA W orldScanA1B-450-DR W orldScan A2-450-EA W orldScanW RE550 W GI550SRES-Minim um SRES-Max im umDatabase Max Database Min.
Maximum inliterature
Minimum in literature
Maximumin SRES
Minimumin SRES
Global Carbon Dioxide EmissionsGlobal Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Nakicenovic IPCC 2001
Our dear friend and colleague is gone, leaving a void in our community and in our lives that can never be filled...
He will live forever in our hearts, in our thoughts and in our scientific work ‒ and we’ll continue to miss him every day!
Tribute to Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita
Working with Dr. Morita
Building Models
The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model The AIM ApproachCCSR/NIES
CGCM
AIM(Asian-PacificIntegratedModel)
Integrated modeling
AIM/Emission Coupling of Top-down model and
Bottom-up model
Overview of complex modelOverview of complex model
Capital Labor Energy PollutionOther inter-mediate input
Solidwaste
Household
Inve
stm
ent
Final consumption
Resource input
Env.industry
Disposal
ReuseWaste
management
Resource input
Final disposal siteCO2
Environmental Investment
Intermediatetreatment
Government
Tax, subsidy,public service, and public investment
Productionsector
Market
AIM/ Material model
Linking Policies
Working with Dr. Morita
IIM Ahmedabad
India- Electricity Generation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years
PJ
Coal
HydroNuclear
CRW & NEW
IIM Ahmedabad
Energy Consumption by Demand Sector
0
10
20
30
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Years
Exa
Joul
es
Industry
Transport
Others
Agriculture
1995 Baseline
2032 Fortress World
2032 Policy Reform
WATER CONSUMPTION
0.0000
100.0000
200.0000
300.0000
400.0000
500.0000
600.0000
700.0000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
CO
NS
UM
PT
ION
(km
^3/ye
ar)
MF
FW
PR
GT
1 40 200 1000 5000
m3/ha/yearChange of water consumption from 1995 to 2032(Domestic + Agriculture + Industry)
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.02000 2005 2010
Year
GD
P ch
ange
[tri.
Yen
at 1
995
pric
e]
2000 2030
SO2 from LPS
20002030
CO2 from LPS
IPCC
Working with Dr. Morita
Eco-Asia/ APEIS Project
Working with Dr. Morita
Contribution of AIM/China to Chinese Environmental policy
Jiang Kejun, Hu Xiulian
Energy Research Institute(ERI)National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)
AIM International Workshop, Oct.4, 2003, Tsukuba
AIM/China collaboration
Started from 1994, ERI modeling team collaborated with AIM team to develop AIM/end use for China. After nearly a decade collaboration, ERI modeling team now is a leading research team for modeling and policy assessment in China in the area of climate change and energy environment.
Collaboration activities
AIM/end use model for ChinaSO2/NOx emission inventoryAIM/Local for ChinaAIM-LinkageAIM/ImpactEast Asia International Workshop on IAMIAM Training WorkshopFellowship and Student
Contribution to policy making process
Worked with Climate Change Group in China as key research groupWorked with Municipal and Provincial governmentInvolved in governmental strategy research projectParticipated international negotiation activities as technical supporterParticipating Climate Change Strategy design in ChinaParticipating China Technology Development Strategy development
Contribution to research activities in China
Development of IPAC modelPaper and book publishedInternational workshop and domestic modeling workshopInvolvement in IPCC activitiesSupport relative research project(more than 10 projects)
実るほど頭が垂れる稲穂かな
Contribution of AIM to Contribution of AIM to Environmental Policy Making Environmental Policy Making
Process in JapanProcess in Japan
HikaruHikaru KobayashiKobayashiCouncillorCouncillor, Minister's Secretariat, Minister's SecretariatMinistry of the EnvironmentMinistry of the Environment
August, 1994: Establishment of Commission of the Environment Agency (EA), “Research committee on tax and charge related to the environment (chairman: Prof. Hiromitsu Ishi, Hitotsubashi Univ.)”
April, 1995: At COP1 (Berlin), Comment of Director-General of EA, Mr. Miyashita: “Japan is considering to host the third or subsequent session of the COP.”
April, 1995: Adoption of the Berlin Mandate at COP1 (Berlin)
July, 1995: Establishment of “Special committee on global warming problem” under the Commission on global environmental problems
June, 1996: First draft by “Research committee on tax and charge related to the environment”
Policy making process in Japan based on the Berlin Mandate
May, 1996: Approval of hosting COP3 at a Cabinet meeting
July, 1996: At COP2 (Geneva), announcement by Director-General of EA, Mr. Iwatare, of Japan’s candidacy for hosting COP3
October, 1996: Interim report by “Special committee on global warming problem” under the Commission of global environmental problems
December, 1996: First Japanese proposal: p & q
October, 1997: Second Japanese proposal: 5% as reduction rate
October, 1997: Final report by “Research committee of tax and charge related to the environment”
Policy making process in Japan base on the Berlin Mandate continued
Main issues related to the AIM model
1. Assumption of crude steel production is too small.
2. Assumption of energy efficiency improvement of vehicles is too high.
3. Assumption of electricity production by electric utilities in 2010 is too small.
4. Assumption of carbon tax (30,000 yen/tC) is too expensive and unrealistic.
(in September 1997)
Mainichi NewspaperOctober 7, 1997
EU criticized Japanese proposal severely
MITI-domination unchecked
EA model found contradictory
STOP Global Warming,Kyoto, 1997
Gap of estimated CO2 emissionsderived from the trend of technologies and selection of equipment
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(MtC
)+23.5%
-71.4%
Emission in“Frozen Technology”case
Emission from existingequipment
CO2 emissions results by using AIM/Enduse modelsubmitted to Central Environment Council, August 1997.
Year
Prof. (Dr.) Tsuneyuki Morita (1950 – 2003)Director, Social and Environmental Systems Division,
National Institute for Environmental StudiesProfessor, Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology,
Tokyo Institute of TechnologyAdjunct Professor, Institute of Advanced Studies,
United Nations University