COST ESTIMATING AND DECOMMISSIONING ESTIMATING AND DECOMMISSIONING FUNDING IAEA/ANL ... (AACE) Definitions: – ... Preparing A Cost Estimate - UCF Example. 36

  • View
    229

  • Download
    13

Embed Size (px)

Transcript

  • COST ESTIMATINGAND

    DECOMMISSIONING FUNDING

    IAEA/ANL

    ChicagoApril 2012

    Joseph E. CarignanJECarignan@aol.com

    423-596-5079

  • 2

    Cost Estimating&Decommissioning Funding

    Understand Purpose And Types Of Estimates Advantages/Disadvantages

    Understand And Describe The Approaches Used For Cost Estimating

    Obtain A Basic Understanding Of The Cost Estimating Elements/Terminology

    Identify Key Factors Affecting The Cost Estimate Results

  • 3

    Introduction:Purpose

    Assures Adequate Funds Identified Establishes Bases For:

    Funding Approvals Evaluating Contractor Bids Evaluating Options Risk Management Communications Tool

    Satisfies Regulatory Requirements Establishes Oversight Confidence

  • 4

    Introduction:Accuracy

    Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) Definitions: Order of Magnitude CE -30% to +50%

    W/O Detailed Engineering Data (Scaling factors/ratios) Scope not well defined

    Budgetary CE -15% to +30 Scope defined Have Site Plans/Drawings/Equipment

    Definitive CE - 5 % to +15% Accurate Site Drawings/Records Available

    (Examples - Plot Plans/Elevations, P&IDs, Equipment Data Sheets)

    Scope Well Defined/Characterization/Approach

  • 5

    Introduction:Quality

    Poorly Prepared or No CE May Result In: Insufficient Funds Re-planning / Re-Baselining Poor Public Relations/Loss of Confidence Non-compliance Risk exposure Poor Stewardship

    Black Box Cost Estimates Not Sufficient.

  • 6

    Background:Funding Requirements

    National Systems Vary Similar - Polluter Pays Principle Adequate Reserves Set Aside For Decommissioning. Periodic Contributions From The Operators, Obtained From

    Charging The Consumers From The Sale Of Electricity. Methods Vary: Some Power Plants Operators Apply A Percent To The Kwh Sold Some Determine A Fixed Fee On Each Kwh.

    Contribution Amount Is Revised Periodically Typically Every Year

    IAEA-TECDOC-1476

  • 7

    Background:Funding Requirements

    Cost Goal Is Revised Less Frequently (three to five years) Estimates revised to address the future costs of decommissioning

    and waste management. Based on given strategy, disbursement forecast, waste costs and

    other key financial parameters (inflation, discount rate) and allowing for some long-term contingencies.

    Objective Obtain Adequate Funding Level To Conduct Decommissioning At End Of Life.

    IAEA-TECDOC-1476

  • 8

    Background:U.S. Funding Requirements

    U.S. Power Reactors(10 CFR 50.75)

    - NRC Minimum PWR $105MM, BWR $135MM - Minimums

    Adjusted Over Time

    - Funds Collected From Rate Payers- Financial Assurance - Update Report Every Other Year

    U.S. Non-Power Reactors(10 CFR 50.33 & 50.75)- No NRC Minimum- Decommissioning Report (10 CFR 50.33)- Financial Assurance Required

    Other Facilities - Fed Government Sites Funds Collected From Taxpayers

    No Generic Minimum Required Congressional Funding Allocated (Yearly)

  • 9

    Background:U.S. Efforts to Address D&D CE

    1986 Guidelines Report (AIF/NESP-036) Guidelines for Producing Commercial Nuclear

    Power Plant Decommissioning Cost Estimates Approach

    Unit Cost Factors and Detailed Plant Inventory Widely Accepted

    PUC Federal Funding Agencies NRC /DOE IAEA

  • 10

    Background:International Efforts

    International Efforts To Address Costs 1994 - International Task Group established to evaluate large

    variations in D&D cost estimates. 1995 - IAEA began developing a technical document on cost

    of radioactive waste management and decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    1994-1998 the European Commission (EC) working on establishing a database for decommissioning costs.

    Groups Agreed To Work Together To Develop Standardized/Uniform Cost Items And Definition For Use In Developing Decommissioning Costs.

  • 11

    Background:Tools and Applications

    Commercial Estimating Software Available RACER POWERtool Omega Others

    Use Existing Data Of Activity Estimates/Rates, Based On Actual Data From Other D&D Projects, To Use On Future D&D Projects

    Simple Projects May Not Need Expensive Software

  • 12

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Key Cost Elements

    Activity-dependent Costs

    Period-dependent Costs

    Collateral Costs/Special Items Costs

    Contingency

  • 13

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Activity-Dependent Costs

    Hands On Activities -Clearly Defined Tasks/Normally Repetitive Removal Decontamination Packaging Shipping Burial

    Unit Cost Factor Approach Used to Develop Site-specific Unit Cost Factors

  • 14

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Period-Dependent Costs

    Directly Related To Project Duration Necessary Functions For Program Management

    Engineering, Administration, Quality Assurance, Licensing, Operations, Maintenance, Security and Radiation Protection, Planning/Scheduling, Field Supervision

    Staff Composition/Level Synchronized With Decommissioning Phases And Support Requirements

    Costs Direct (Base Salaries) Indirect Overhead (Fixed And Variable Components) Transition, Severance, Training And Retention

  • 15

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Collateral / Special Item Cost

    Insurance, Taxes, Permits, Fees Engineering

    Contracted or Off Site Support.

    Other Costs Material/Supplies Identified As a Cost Not Captured Elsewhere

    Scrap Salvage

  • 16

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Contingency

    Definition* specific provision for unforeseeable elements of cost within the defined project scope; particularly important where previous experience relating estimates and actual costs has shown that unforeseeable events which will increase costs are likely to occur.

    Provides Funding Assurance Not a Safety Factor & Expected to Be Spent Industry Wide Acceptance May be built into each activity or applied as line

    item or project specific

    * Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International

  • 17

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Work Breakdown Structure

    Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) A deliverable oriented hierarchical work activity description Organizes/defines the total scope of the project Used for budgeting and Should correlate to final work packages Each descending level provides detailed description of the work

    to be performed Track major elements against decommissioning costs. Generally

    arranged in a hierarchical format with top level is overall project

  • 18

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Work Breakdown Structure - Level 5 Example

    X ResearchReactor

    1

    Pre-planning1.1

    DecommissioningPlanning

    1.3

    DecommissioningActivities

    1.4

    TransitionActivities

    1.2

    Etc.1.x

    DecontaminationPrimary Systems

    1.4.1

    DecontaminationSecondary Systems

    1.4.2

    Dismantleequipment in

    Room 1A1.4.3

    Etc.1.4.x

    General deconof room1.4.3.1

    Remove allpiping1.4.3.2

    Remove tank1A-2

    1.4.3.3

    Remove tank1A-2

    1.4.3.4

    Etc.1.4.3.x

    Ensure pipingIs drained1.4.3.2.1

    Disconnect Pipingfrom tank 1A-1

    1.4.3.2.2

    Disconnect Pipingfrom tank 1A-2

    1.4.3.2.3

    Etc.1.4.3.2.x

    Dismantleequipment in

    Room 1B1.4.3

    From IAEA Presentation

  • 19

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Work Element Definition Sheet Example

    WBS No. Sequential Number of specific ActivityWBS Title: Title of Tasks To Be PerformedWBS Description of the Work:

    This section describes specific tasks necessary to complete the Activity.

    WBS Deliverable:

    Describes the End Point Criteria for the Specific Tasks.

  • 20

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Standardizing Cost Estimate Elements

    A PROPOSED STANDARDISED LIST of ITEMS FOR COSTING PURPOSES in the DECOMMISSIONING OF NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS - Interim Technical Document

    Developed by International Agencies: The European Commission (EC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) OECD/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)

    There is an ongoing effort to standardize decommissioning aspects, definitions and cost items for decommissioning projects.

  • 21

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:Standardizing Cost Estimate Elements

    A PROPOSED STANDARDISED LIST - Interim Technical Document

    01 PRE-DECOMMISSIONING ACTIONS 02 FACILITY SHUTDOWN ACTIVITIES 03 PROCUREMENT OF GENERAL EQUIPMENT AND MATERIAL 04 DISMANTLING ACTIVITIES 05 WASTE PROCESSING, STORAGE AND DISPOSAL 06 SITE SECURITY, SURVEILLANCE AND MAINTENANCE 07 SITE RESTORATION, CLEANUP AND LANDSCAPING 08 PROJECT MANAGEMENT, ENGINEERING AND SITE SUPPORT 09 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 10 FUEL AND NUCLEAR MATERIAL 11 OTHER COSTS 12 COST GROUPS

  • Preparing A Cost Estimate:Overview

    22

    1.Define Work

    Scope

    3.Collect

    Information

    2.Determine

    Options

    6.Develop

    UCF & ProductivityFactors

    4.Define

    Assumptions

    5.ID Activities

    & Tasks

    7.Develop Activity

    Estimates

    9.Prepare Final CostEstimate/Schedule

    8.Develop

    Project Schedule

  • 23

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:First Things First

    SCOPE: This Bounds the Cost Study and Describes The

    Overall Approach

    OPTIONS: Determines What Scenarios will be included in

    the Cost Study such as Prompt Decon.

    1.Define Work

    Scope

    2.Determine

    Options

  • 24

    Preparing A Cost Estimate:First Things First