CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources

and society adaptation in Nepal

DHM

Centre d'Etudes Himalayennes

Main objectives of PAPRIKA-Nepal• To contribute to a more accurate assessment of glacier retreat and

snow cover changes in the HKH region and a better understanding of the surface processes governing glacier and snow melt

• To evaluate the distribution and variability of absorbing aerosol particles from anthropogenic origin transported to the high altitude regions of HKH

• To establish and model the current energy budget of snow surfaces, including the effect of absorbing aerosols deposited in snow and their impact on water melting rates.

• To provide climate trends and scenarios at the regional level

• To use these projections to quantify current and future water resource in the area of Nepal

• To study adaptation options of mountain communities to changes in water availability.

• To propose plausible adaptation strategies for changing risks, including analysis of their economic efficiency and benefits within the social welfare context.

WP1 Cryospheric resources:

glacier melting and snow cover mapping

WP3 Climate and Monsoon Variability Modelling

WP4 Modelling the interaction

between snow pack, radiation and aerosols

WP2 Optically Active

Aerosols in snow observation and modelling

ELEMENT 1: Water Ressources input, Climate and Anthropogenic Pressures on the Cryosphere / Climate and Monsoon System

Work Packages

WP5Water Resources in Future Climate Change Scenarii

WP6Perception of Changes by

Population and adaptation within the

four Nepal Geographic Units

WP7Capacity Building and

Dissemination of Information

ELEMENT 2: Impact on the Water Resource System and Population

Work Packages

Snow

General circulation model (LMDz)

Clim

ate

scen

ario

s

Hydrological modelling

Regional model (MARdm) and downscaling

Perception of changes by population

and adaptation

Water resources in future climate change scenarios

Capacity building and dissem

ination of information New Scientific Knowledge (data base, new models, new physics)

Glacier Run-Off

Land Emission

Atmospheric Composition

Benchmark glaciers

Meteorological observation

Ice core

BC

Nepal region

RainfallSnow-pack/glacier

ModellingRemote sensing

WP 1: Water ressource and cryosphere: snow and glacier melting (observation and modelling)

Aerosols: Modification of thermal atmospheric structure, water vapor, clouds and precipitation

Aerosol impact according to glacier faces (snow, ice, debris covered)

Aérosols: Dépots carbone suie et poussières: (Albedo)

WP2: OPTICALLY ACTIVE AEROSOL IN ATMOSPHERE AND SNOW

Brown Cloud seen from the NCO-P station, transported up through the valley

Snow samples from Pyramid , Pokalde and Changri Nup glaciers

NCO-P station, close to Pyramid laboratory

WP3: Climate and monsoon variability

The model(s) used:

LMDz-ORCHIDEE-INCA (SST fixed) Computes the aerosol concentrations and deposition, represent the change in albedo

Coupled IPSL model Changes in the intensity, onset phases and

extent of the monsoon

Incomingsolar

radiation IncomingIR

radiation

Sensible /latent heat fluxes

- conduction- melting / freezing- percolation- settling- metamorphism

Wind

rain snow

SNOWPACK

ATMOSPHERE

GROUND

meltingrun-off

geothermalheat flux

++

+

++

+

incomingradiation

temperature BC content

snowtype

also: density specific surface area diffusion / advection

SNOWPACK MODELING USING CROCUSwith INPUT fromobservations or

regional / global models

Work package 4: MODELLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SNOWPACK, RADIATION, AND THE ABSORBING MATERIAL DEPOSITED IN THE SNOW

albedo

BC deposition

Local 1D modeling of optical snowpack properties for different conditions / altitudes: • glaciers• seasonal snowpack

Quantification of BC impact in snow on• melting rates and days• contribution of the snow melting to the total run-off• sensitivities to future changes in temperature and atmospheric BC

radiation

Implementation of the effect of BC on snow albedo and radiation transfer in the snowpack

Paprika - WP5Future of the water resources

• Input from WP1, WP3, WP4• 3 components

– Glacier melt– Snowpack melt– Rainfall

– Headwater < 200 km²– Upper valley > 1000 km²– Koshi River basin > 20000 km²

• Simulate the discharge under different scenarios at different scales

WP 6: Perception of changes by populations and adaptation

within the four Nepal geographic units

=> consequences of climate change on populations:- changes in water uses due to variations in the availability of the resource + the socio-economic impact.- flood risks in the Terai plain

=> to map areas concerned by change and risk + to estimate affected populations [ using GIS & population census data].

WP7: Local communities and capacity building and dissemination

Objectives:

1/ To confront scientific and local knowledge on the evolution of natural resources and on people’s vulnerability in the face of natural hazards;

3/ To define strategies and plans to enhance local capacities in the face of environmental hazards;

4/ To provide authorities with recommendations on how to consider and integrate people’s ability

Lower Koshi River basinSaptari District – Nepal

Method: Participatory 3-

Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) in Irosin, Philippines,

in January 2010