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UNCTAD Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities
and Development 2013 Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy options for commodity-based inclusive growth and su stainable development
Room XXVI Palais des Nations
Geneva, Switzerland
Current Situation of China’s Nonferrous Metals Indu stry and
Development Trend
by
Mr. Zhongkui Wang Vice General Manager
Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
20 MARCH 2013
This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
Current Situation of China’s Nonferrous
Metals Industry and Development Trend
Wang Zhongkui
Vice General Manager
Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd.
UNCTAD Multi-year Expert Meeting on COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT
Geneva, Swiss, March 20, 2013
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared with care. However, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter Antaike) makes no warranty of any kind in regard to the contents and shall not be liable for incidental or consequential damages, financial or otherwise, arising out of the use of this document.
Copyright
The contents of this presentation are copyright Antaike
© 2013 Antaike
Disclaimer & Copyright
2
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Characteristics of China's nonferrous metals Industry and the role
in the global market;
China's nonferrous metals output and consumption maintains fast
growth;
China's nonferrous metals foreign trade has increased rapidly and
the trade deficit has enlarged;
Supply shortage of raw materials being worsened; highly
depending on imported raw materials; weak competitiveness of
the domestic nonferrous metals enterprises;
Production technology and equipments have reached the
international advanced level;
3
1. Characteristics of China's nonferrous metals industry and the role in the global
market :
China has been the world’s biggest producer and consumer of nonferrous metals. Both
the output and consumption account s for 40% of the global total. The change in China’s
nonferrous metals output and consumption has great impact on the global market.;
China’s nonferrous metals market has been in line with the international market for
many years. Copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other nonferrous metals have been the key
trading products on the domestic metal exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange
(SHFE) nonferrous metals futures prices have been closely following the LME prices.
There is a high correlation between China’s nonferrous metals consumption and the
national economic development. The growth of China’s nonferrous metals consumption
has been faster than that of the GDP, indicating that China is still a developing country.
The expansion in nonferrous metals smelting and refining capacity has been faster than
the mining capacity, causing a continuous decrease in self-sufficiency of the raw materials
and a continuous increase in import of the raw materials.
The industrial distribution is being gradually shifted to littoral and west regions, from the
old production bases that are close to the raw materials supply places.
Current Situation Of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
4
Current Situation of China‘s Nonferrous Metals Industry
Refined Metal 2012
The world
2012
China
Proportion
%
China’s
ranking
Output：Cu 20,087 5,824 30.0 1
Al 48,040 22,300 46.4 1
Pb 10,631 4,660 43.8 1
Zn 12,461 4,630 37.0 1
Consumption：Cu 19,700 7,680 39.0 1
Al 47,550 21,850 46.0 1
Pb 10,435 4.510 43.2 1
Zn 12,503 5,400 43.2 1
Unit: kt
2. The role of China's nonferrous metals industry in the world
5
China’s output of ten kinds of nonferrous metals grew at an average rate of
13.8% in 2000-2012. Of which, the average growth rate was 14.9% in 2000-2010.
In 2002, China’s output of nonferrous metals exceeded 10.00 Mt, ranking first in
the world. At present, China’s output of nonferrous metals represents 40% of the
world’s total.
3. China's nonferrous metals output maintains fast growth
Current Situation of China‘s Nonferrous Metals Industry
6
China’s output of refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead and refined zinc
respectively grew at an average rate of 12.8%, 17.3%, 12.8% and 18.8% in 2000-
2012.
Current Situation of China‘s Nonferrous Metals Industry
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Production of refined Cu, aluminum, lead and zinc, kt
Cu Al Pb Zn
7
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
4. China‘s nonferrous metals consumption significantly faster than the
world’s average level
China’s consumption of refined copper grew at an average rate of 12.5% in
2000-2012. Meanwhile, the average annual growth rate was 2.2% in the world.
Unit: kt
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Refined copper cons. China Vs the World
China the world
8
Electric power 47%
Light Industry
22%
Transport 16%
Buildings 8%
Others 1%
Electronics and
communication 6%
China USA
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Comparison of refined copper consumption in China and USA
Buildings43%
Electric power and electronics
25%
Transport12%
Industrial machinery
and equipment
11%Consumer goods and
other articles of everyday …
9
Current Situation Of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
China’s consumption of primary aluminum grew at an
average rate of 16.7% in 2000-2012. Meanwhile, the
average annual growth rate was 5.3% in the world.
Others 8%
Durable goods
12% Transport
15%
Buildings 40%
Mechanical
equipment 6%
Electric power
15%
Packaging
4%
Primary aluminum consumption
structure in China
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Primary aluminum cons.
China Vs the world, ktThe world
China
10
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Solder 2%
Others 5.50%
Battery 80%
Chemical
engineering
12.5%
Refined lead consumption
structure in China
China’s consumption of refined lead grew at an
average rate of 12.6% in 2006-2012. Meanwhile,
the average growth rate was 4.0% in the world.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Refined lead cons. China Vs the world, kt
The world China
11
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Brass 14.30%
Battery 3.70%
Zinc oxide 8.20%
Others 0.60%
Die casting
alloys 25.2%
Galvanizing
48% China’s consumption of refined zinc grew at an
average rate of 9.3% in 2006-2012. Meanwhile, the
average growth rate was 2.15% in the world.
Refined zinc consumption
structure in China
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Refined zinc cons.
China Vs the world, ktThe world
China
12
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
5. China's nonferrous metals foreign trade value has increased
rapidly and the trade deficit has enlarged
China’s nonferrous metals foreign trade value grew at an average rate of
22.7% in 2000-2012. Of which, the growth of import value was 22.6%; export
value, 23%. The foreign trade deficit enlarged to USD63.4 billion in 2012 from
USD5.7 billion in 2000.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Import & export value of nonferrous metals,
bln USD
Import&export value
Import value
Export value
Def icit
13
China’s output of copper-in-concentrates, copper blister and copper cathode
respectively grew at an average rate of 8.9%, 10.4% and 12.5% in 2000-2012.
The gap between the copper blister output and copper-in-concentrates enlarged
to 1.62 Mt in 2012 from 390 kt in 2000. The self-sufficiency of copper raw
materials decreased to 43.8% in 2012 from 58.5% in 2000. China’s copper
industry is increasingly relying on imported raw materials.
6. The copper smelting capacity expansion exceeds mining capacity
2600
1620
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
14
0
1'000
2'000
3'000
4'000
5'000
6'000
7'000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cu-in-concentrates Cu blister Refined Cukt
15
The proportion of home-made copper concentrates in the domestic copper
smelting enterprises gradually decreased in 2000-2012, with the lowest level of
35.7% seen in 2005. And then, the proportion ranged in 38%-43% over the past
few years. China’s import of copper concentrates (physical weight) grew at an
average rate of 12.9% in 2000-2012. The import approached to Mt in 2012, with
copper metal contained exceeding 2.00 Mt.
Self-sufficiency rate of copper
concentrates %
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
Imported copper concentrates
Unit: kt
Source: Antaike
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
China’s import of aluminum
raw materials is increasing.
The decrease in the
alumina import has been
replaced by the increase in
the bauxite import.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import of bauxite and alumina, ktAlumina - L
Bauxite - R
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import and export of aluminum ingot, kt
Import
Export
16
China’s import of lead-zinc concentrates has increased year by year.
China’s import of lead concentrates (physical weight) grew at an average rate of
15.9% in 2000-2012 and the zinc concentrates grew at 30.7%.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import of lead conc. and zinc conc., kt
Lead conc.
Zinc conc.
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
17
China exported large
amount of refined
lead in the past. But
now the production
mainly aims at
meeting the
domestic demand.
China was a big net
exporter of refined zinc
in the past but now
turned to be a net
importer.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import and export of refined lead, kt
Import Export
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Import and export of refined zinc, kt
Import Export
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
18
7.There is a high correlation between China’s nonferrous metals
consumption and the national economic development.
8
7.3
8.0
10.0 10.110.4
12.7
14.2
9.69.2
10.4
9.3
7.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Chinese GDP growth
GDP trillion RMB - L
GDP Growth % - R
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
19
The correlation between China’s copper consumption and the GDP
GDPCu 0.01867327 279.636987 There is a
high
correlation
between
China’s
copper
consumption
and the GDP.
The simple
correlation
coefficient is
0.9938.
China’s copper consumption
China’s GDP
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
20
Copper: China has adopted the international advanced copper smelting technology.
By continued improvement, China has mastered the smelting technology with
independent property right. China has become the showing stage for the global
copper smelting technology and facility. All the domestic large-sized copper smelting
enterprises have employed the advanced technology, accounting for over 90% of
the total in China’s copper industry.
Aluminum: all the outdated Soderberg capacity have been eliminated. Most of the
domestic aluminum smelters have adopted the high-ampere pre-baked aluminum
reduction cells and the AC consumption has dropped to below 14,000kwh/tonne Al,
reaching the international advanced level.
Lead and zinc: the domestic lead and zinc enterprises have eliminated the backward
sintering pots and adopted the advanced wet-method and pyrometallurgical process.
8. Production technology of China’s nonferrous metals industry
and facility reached the international advanced level
Current Situation of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
21
Development Trend of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
There is room for the output and consumption to grow but the growth
will largely slow down;
Import of the raw materials will keep on rising. Meanwhile, the metal
import will be stable and even decrease;
The industrial structure and distribution will be more rational;
More attentions will be paid to recycling of the secondary metal and the
proportion of secondary metal output will increase;
With more investments being put into environmental protection projects,
the production cost of Chinese nonferrous metals enterprises will
increase.
22
Development Trend of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8'000
10'000
12'000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Cu smelting capacityCu refining capacityCu blister outputRefined Cu outputUtilization rate of Cu smelting capacity %
Unit: kt
Source: Antaike
23
Forecast on China’s demand for nonferrous metals Unit: kt
2012 2015 2012-2015
Average annual growth %
2020 2012-2020
Average annual growth %
Refined Cu
China 7,860 9,220 5.4 11,150 4.4
The world 19,700 21,550 3.0 24,040 2.5
Primary aluminu
m
China 21,850 29,000 9.9 33,570 5.5
The world 47,550 56,760 6.0 61,150 3.2
Refined lead
China 4,510 5,350 5.8 5，600 2.72
The world 10,435
10,910 4.55 11,400 1.11
Refined zinc
China 5,400 6,580 6.8 7,170 3.6
The world 12,500 14,520 5.1 - -
Source: Antaike
Development Trend of China's Nonferrous Metals Industry
24
Antaike Events in 2013
No. Events Time Location
1 China Nonferrous Metals Mining Forum 19-20 May Beijing
2 International Magnesium Conference 19-22 May Xi'an, Shaanxi
3 China International Aluminum Fabrication Forum 30 Jun. - 1 Jul. Shanghai
4 China Metal Seminar Hong Kong 24 Jun. Hong Kong
5 China International Silicon Conference 15-17 Sept. Gansu
6 China International Silver Conference Sept. TBC
7 China Metal Seminar London 15-19 Oct. London, UK
8 China International Copper Conference 29-31 Oct. Beijing
9 China International Lead & Zinc Conference 5-7 Nov. Beijing
10 China International Tungsten & Molybdenum Conference 11-12 Nov. Nanchang, Jiangxi
11 China International Nickel & Cobalt Conference 12-14 Nov. Chengdu, Sichuan
12 China Aluminum Forum Nov. TBC
13 China International Copper Fabrication Forum 20-21 Nov. Shanghai
•To inquire about these events, please contact: Shiela Ju, Manager of International Department Email: [email protected]
Tel: 0086 10 62560921
•Updates on the events can be found at www.antaike.com
25
