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Risk Assessment - Assessing and understanding risk and integrating risk management in development planning Roberto Rudari ([email protected] ) CIMA Research Foundation

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Risk Assessment -

Assessing and understanding risk and integrating risk

management in development planning

Roberto Rudari ([email protected]) CIMA Research Foundation

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OUTLINE

•  Scope of Training •  Role of Risk Assessment in DRM •  Terms & Definitions •  Risk Assessment Process •  Risk Identification, Analysis, Evaluation •  Risk Mapping

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Scope of Training

•  Focus on the processes and methods of risk assessment and mapping in the prevention, preparedness and planning Stages

•  Understanding the role o Risk Assessment within the broader framework of disaster risk management

•  Understanding the importance of a multi-hazard and multi-risk approach

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Scope of Risk Assessment •  provide a risk management instrument for disaster

management authorities, and also other policy-makers, public interest groups, civil society organisations and other public or private stakeholders involved or interested in the management and reduction of disaster risks;

•  contribute to the development of knowledge-based disaster prevention policies at different levels of government and among different policy competencies, as national risk assessments involve the integration of risk information from multiple sources;

•  inform decisions on how to prioritise and allocate investments in prevention, preparedness and reconstruction measures;

•  contribute to the raising of public awareness on disaster prevention measures;

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Risk Assessment & DRM •  Risk assessment and mapping are the central components of a more

general process which identifies the capacities and resources available to reduce the identified levels of risk, or the possible effects of a disaster (capacity analysis), and considers the planning of appropriate risk mitigation measures (capability planning), the monitoring and review of hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities, as well as consultation and communication of findings and results.

•  When carried out at national level, disaster risk assessments and risk management can become essential inputs for planning and policies in a number of areas of public and private activity.

•  Wide dissemination and awareness-raising are important steps to further develop and fully integrate a risk prevention culture into sectoral policies, which are often complex and involve many stakeholders

•  Risk maps generate a level of transparency which can help engage all interested actors in society

•  Risk assessments deal with uncertainty and probabilities. These are the necessary subjects of a rational debate about the level of risk a State, may find acceptable when considering the costs of associated prevention and mitigation measures

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Terms & Definitions Defining HAZARD (the active part of risk equation)

•  Hazard is a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Comment: […] In technical settings, hazards are described quantitatively by the likely frequency of occurrence of different intensities for different areas, as determined from historical data or scientific analysis. (UNISDR, 2009)

•  Natural hazard: Natural process or phenomenon that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. Comment: Natural hazards are a sub-set of all hazards. The term is used to describe actual hazard events as well as the latent hazard conditions that may give rise to future events. Natural hazard events can be characterized by their magnitude or intensity, speed of onset, duration, and area of extent. (UNISDR, 2009)

•  Technological hazard: A hazard originating from technological or industrial conditions, including accidents, dangerous procedures, infrastructure failures or specific human activities, that may cause loss of life, injury, illness or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage. (UNISDR, 2009) Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

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Terms & Definitions Defining Exposure and Vulnerability (the passive part of risk equation) •  Exposure: People, property, systems, or other elements present in

hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. (UNISDR, 2009) •  Vulnerability: The characteristics and circumstances of a community,

system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. (UNISDR, 2009) In probabilistic/quantitative risk assessments the term vulnerability expresses the part or percentage of Exposure that is likely to be lost due to a certain hazard.

•  Resilience: The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions. (UNISDR, 2009)

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

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Terms & Definitions Defining Consequences (the holistic nature of risk) •  Consequences are the negative effects of a disaster expressed in terms of human

impacts, economic and environmental impacts, and political/social impacts. (ISO 31010)

•  Human impacts are defined as the quantitative measurement of the following factors: number of deaths, number of severely injured or ill people, and number of permanently displaced people. (EU guidelines)

•  Economic and environmental impacts are the sum of the costs of cure or healthcare, cost of immediate or longer-term emergency measures, costs of restoration of buildings, public transport systems and infrastructure, property, cultural heritage, etc., costs of environmental restoration and other environmental costs (or environmental damage), costs of disruption of economic activity, value of insurance pay-outs, indirect costs on the economy, indirect social costs, and other direct and indirect costs, as relevant. (EU guidelines)

•  Political/social impacts are usually rated on a semi-quantitative scale and may include categories such as public outrage and anxiety, encroachment of the territory, infringement of the international position, violation of the democratic system, and social psychological impact, impact on public order and safety, political implications, psychological implications, and damage to cultural assets, and other factors considered important which cannot be measured in single units, such as certain environmental damage. (EU guidelines)

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

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Terms & Definitions Defining Risk (the different phases of facing risk) •  Risk is a combination of the consequences of an event (hazard) and the

associated likelihood/probability of its occurrence. (ISO 31010) •  Risk assessment is the overall process of risk identification, risk analysis,

and risk evaluation. (ISO 31010) •  Risk identification is the process of finding, recognizing and describing

risks. (ISO 31010) •  Risk analysis is the process to comprehend the nature of risk and to

determine the level of risk. (ISO 31010) •  Risk evaluation is the process of comparing the results of risk analysis

with risk criteria to determine whether the risk and/or its magnitude is acceptable or tolerable. (ISO 31010)

•  Risk criteria are the terms of reference against which the significance of a risk is evaluated. (ISO 31010)

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

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Terms & Definitions Defining multi-risk assessment (working with multiple risk sources) •  Hazard assessments determine the probability of occurrence of a certain

hazard of certain intensity. •  Multi-hazard assessments determine the likelihood of occurrence of

different hazards either occurring at the same time or shortly following each other, because they are dependent from one another or because they are caused by the same triggering event or hazard, or merely threatening the same elements at risk (vulnerable/ exposed elements) without chronological coincidence.

•  Single-risk assessments determine the singular risk (i.e. likelihood and consequences) of one particular hazard (e.g. flood) or one particular type of hazard (e.g. flooding) occurring in a particular geographic area during a given period of time.

•  Multi-risk assessments determine the total risk from several hazards either occurring at the same time or shortly following each other, because they are dependent from one another or because they are caused by the same triggering event or hazard; or merely threatening the same elements at risk (vulnerable/ exposed elements) without chronological coincidence.

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

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Terms & Definitions Mapping Risk (presenting the risk assessment)

•  Hazard map is a map that portrays levels of probability of a hazard occurring across a geographical area. Such maps can focus on one hazard only or include several types of hazards (multi-hazard map).

•  Multi-hazard map is a map that portrays levels of probability of several hazards occurring across a geographical area.

•  Risk map is a map that portrays levels of risk across a geographical area. Such maps can focus on one risk only or include different types of risks.

•  Risk scenario is a representation of one single-risk or multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration.

Sources: UNISDR terminology, ISO 31000, ISO 31010

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Risk Assessment Scales - Time

Learn from the Past

•  Loss Accounting /Forensic

Improve the present

•  Short term prevention and mitigation actions

Look at the future

•  Long terms assessment, long term planning and investment

Risk assessment should support informed decision in order to:

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Risk Assessment Scales - space

National level

•  National Risk Profiles definition •  Coping capacity assessment/improvement •  National DRM Policies (e.g. EWS) •  Prioritization on HZDs / on Geographical areas

Province level

•  Regional development plans •  Infrastructure developments

Local/municipality

level

•  Disaster Risk management Plans/Emergency Plans •  Disaster risk reduction plans •  Land use planning and regulations (zoning)

Community level

•  commitment to DRR programs •  awareness raising

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Risk Assessment Process •  Identification of a Coordinating authority

•  Involvement: public authorities, research and businesses, non-governmental organisations and the wider general public.

•  Such actors in the RAP should: –  (a) agree on the scoring criteria at the start of the assessment process, –  (b) record the methods used and their level of uncertainty, –  (c) note the justification for including or excluding specific risks, –  (d) record the scores allocated to each risk and their justification, –  (e) devise a protocol for the use of expert opinion

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA

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Risk Assessment Process •  Importance of public consultation

– Helps the recognition of the value of RA – Prevents multiple initiatives that can pop up

notwithstanding the coordination action –  Improves awareness and perception

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA

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Phases of Risk Assessment within RMP

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA

Establish context

Identify risks

analyse risks

evaluate risks

treat risks

Com

mun

icat

e &

Con

sult

Mon

itor &

Rev

iew

Ass

ess

Ris

k

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DATA Collection •  Prior to risk identification

proper data collection is needed as a basis for the whole process

•  In order to focus on the right data to collect it is necessary to have a good understanding of the different risks in terms of –  SOURCE, –  PATHWAYS, –  RECEPTORS, –  CONSEQUENCE

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The purpose of the risk identification stage is to find and recognize all likely hazards and significant consequences

Because of the inherent complexity, risk identification usually

involves the elaboration of scenarios of potential risk situations, which condense the realm of possibilities to a limited number of identified situations.

A Risk scenario is a representation of one single-risk or

multi-risk situation leading to significant impacts, selected for the purpose of assessing in more detail a particular type of risk for which it is representative, or constitutes an informative example or illustration.

Risk identification

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Single Risk Scenario (example)

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

NAME, TYPERAYLWAYS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

NAME, TYPESTREATSLINEAR

POINT

AREAL

ELEMENT GEOMETRY

LOCATIONNAMERAYLWAY STATIONS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

NAME, TYPEAIRPORTS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

ACTIVITY TYPE, SUBSTANCES

HIGHLY HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL PLANTS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED PEOPLE

NAMEHOSPITALS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED PEOPLE

NAME, TYPESCHOOLS

ELEMENT CLASSIFICATIONTYPE, PROPERTYELETRIC LINES & OTHER LIFELINES

N° EXPOSED PEOPLERESIDENT POPULATIONPOPOLUATION CENSUS POLYGONS

RISK SCENARIO FIGURESUseful attribute(example)

LAYER (example)

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

NAME, TYPERAYLWAYS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

NAME, TYPESTREATSLINEAR

POINT

AREAL

ELEMENT GEOMETRY

LOCATIONNAMERAYLWAY STATIONS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

NAME, TYPEAIRPORTS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION

ACTIVITY TYPE, SUBSTANCES

HIGHLY HAZARDOUS INDUSTRIAL PLANTS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED PEOPLE

NAMEHOSPITALS

LOCATION, ELEMENT CLASSIFICATION, EXPOSED PEOPLE

NAME, TYPESCHOOLS

ELEMENT CLASSIFICATIONTYPE, PROPERTYELETRIC LINES & OTHER LIFELINES

N° EXPOSED PEOPLERESIDENT POPULATIONPOPOLUATION CENSUS POLYGONS

RISK SCENARIO FIGURESUseful attribute(example)

LAYER (example)

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Multi-Risk Scenario (Layering)

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Multi-Risk Scenario (Cascading)

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Multi-Risk Scenario (Cascading) Natech

Total mass of Gasoline in soil

Total mass of Gasoline in water

Flood Scenario

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Risk Scenarios building guidelines •  Context: National risk identifications •  Hazard level: consider at least all significant hazards of a intensity that

would on average occur once or more often in 100 years (i.e. all hazards with a annual probability of 1% or more)

•  Impacts: consider at least scenarios with consequences that represent significant potential impacts, e.g. number of affected people greater than 50, economic and environmental costs above € 100 million, and political/social impact considered significant or very serious (level 4).

•  High Impact extremes: Where the likely impacts exceed a threshold of 0.6 % of gross national income (GNI) also less likely hazards or risk scenarios should be considered (e.g. volcanic eruptions, tsunamis).

•  If the likelihood of a hazard leading to impacts exceeding the above threshold is more than one in ten years, at least three scenarios with at least three different intensities should be included in the assessment.

•  Temporal horizon: at first the risk identification process should consider risks that may appear in the immediate future, i.e. one to five years ahead

•  More advanced studies should look also to emerging behaviors (CC perspective) and risks (development, demography)

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From Risk identification to Risk Analysis

Scenarios must be devised in the most inclusive way and may refer to rough estimates or qualitative analysis

Ana

lyse

Ris

k Id

entif

y R

isk

RISK SCENARIOS

Scenarios must be expressed AMAP in quantitative terms and characterized in terms of probabilities

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The purpose of the Risk analysis is to comprehend the nature of risk and to determine the level of risk. For every risk and risk scenario identified in the previous risk identification stage, the risk analysis process carries out a detailed (and if possible quantitative) estimation of the probability of its occurrence and the severity of the potential impacts.

The assessment of the probability of an event or hazard should be based, where possible, on the historical frequency of events of similar scale and available statistical data relevant for an analysis of the main drivers, which can help to pick up on accelerating trends, e.g. due to climate change.

The assessment of the level of impact should be in quantitative terms

Risk Analysis - Scope

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Hazard analysis •  (a) Geographical analysis (location, extent) •  (b) Temporal analysis (frequency, duration, etc.) •  (c) Dimensional analysis (scale, intensity) •  (d) Probability of occurrence

Vulnerability analysis •  (a) Identification of elements and people potentially at risk

(exposure) •  (b) Identification of vulnerability factors/ impacts (physical,

economic, environmental, social/political) •  (c) Assessment of likely impacts •  (d) Analysis of self-protection capabilities reducing exposure or •  vulnerability

Risk Analysis - Phases

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Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis Mapping the underlying causes and processes

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Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis Mapping the specific characteristics: CHINA

•  Sudden: A flash flood may occur in a very short time beyond people’s awareness and control.

•  Frequent: The frequency of occurrence is very high. For example, from 1950– 2003, 42 flash floods took place on average in Hubei Province every year and a total of 195 flash floods happened in 1996 alone.

•  Seasonal: Flash floods occur most frequently from June–August, accounting for about 80% of the total number of flash floods in an entire year.

•  Destructive: Due to their sudden nature, flash floods are very hazardous and destructive.

•  Regional: Flash floods often take place in areas with high precipitation and relevant geographic conditions.

•  Mass occurrence: Due to the influence of storms and their coverage, flash floods often occur in a small drainage area or at several points simultaneously.

•  Simultaneous: Debris flows, hill collapses and flash floods often take place simultaneously in a region.

•  Converted: Flash floods may be converted into debris flows, or hill collapses into debris flows, or flash floods into hill collapses, and so on.

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Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis Mapping the specific Causes: CHINA

•  Rainfall (main cause, as opposed to dam failures)

•  Topographic and geological factors

•  Economic and social factors •  Random resource development in mountain

regions •  Improper selection of house location •  Irrational construction and flood relief

obstacles in hilly regions

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Hazard analysis The use of Hazard matrices

Risk Analysis – Hazard Analysis

T<20 yrs 20<T<50 yrs 50<T<200 yrs 200<T<500 yrs

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V = f(E, EI, S) E represent a vector of element-at-risk indicators, EI of exposure indicators S of susceptibility indicators

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis

Social Vulnerability Physical Vulnerability

Holistic approach to Vulnerability

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Point  Scale  

Residen'al  buildings  

Health  Structures  

Museums  

Public  buildings  

Schools  

Recep've  structures  (Hotels)  

Recep've  structures  (Campsites)  

Commercial  structures  

Industrial  plants  

Religious  buildings  

Livestock  facili'es  

Puntual  Infrastructures  

Sports  facili'es  

Linear  Scale   Linear  infrastructures  

Areal  Scale   Land  Use  

TYPE

ID

MAP

NAME

COORDINATES

QUOTA

HEIGHT

FLOORS  NUMBER

BASEMENTNumber  of  entries Side Position Note

Form Width Lenght Plan

VOLUME

AREA  OCCUPIED

PROXIMITY  TO  RIVER/COAST

MATERIALS

AGE

NUMBER  OF  PEOPLE  CONTEINED

OTHER  INFORMATION

CONTENT

DANGEROUS  MATERIALS

INFLUENCE  AREA

ENTRY

DIMENSION

(Description,  images,  ...)

TYPEIDTYPE  OF  INFRASTRUCTURE

MAP

NAMECOORDINATES Start EndLENGHTELEVATIONMATERIALAVERAGE  SLOPECONNECTIONSSIGNIFICANCEGENERAL  DESCRIPTIONOTHER  INFORMATION

LAND  USEID

MAP

NAMECOORDINATESQUOTAAREA  OCCUPIEDPROXIMITY  TO  RIVER/COASTGENERAL  DESCRIPTIONACCESSIBILITY  OTHER  INFORMATION (Description,  images,  ...)

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis IDENTIFICATION OF ELEMENTS AT RISK & EXPOSURE CHARACTERIZATION

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5

Dam

age

[%]

water depth [m]

Vulnerability curves for point scale Residential buildings

Museums

Health structures

Hotels

Commercial structures

Industrial structures

Camping

Public buildings

Sports facilities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5

Dam

age

[%]

water depth [m]

Vulnerability curve for linear infrastructures

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dam

age

[%]

Water depth [m]

Vulnerability functions at areal scale Continous urban tissue

Discontinuous urban tissue

industrial-commercial build

Crops

vineyards, olive groves, orchards

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS

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BUILDING  A:  No  Underground  floors  Entrance  super  elevation  0,6  m  Building  Height  6  m  

BUILDING  B:  1  Underground  Floor  Entrance  at  street  level  Building  Height  4  m  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Dam

age

[%]

Water depth [m]

Vulnerability curve for residential buildings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Dam

age

[%]

Water depth [m]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Dam

age

[%]

Water depth [m] 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4

Dam

age

[%]

Water depth [m]

Vulnerability function for different type of residential buildings

Generic residential building

Residential building type A

Residential building type B

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – LOCAL SCALE FUNCTIONS MODIFICATION

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RESIDUAL  FUNCTIONALITY  HIGH  0,7-­‐1 RESIDUAL  FUNCTIONALITY  MEDIUM  0,4-­‐0,7 RESIDUAL  FUNCTIONALITY  LOW  0,0-­‐0,4

SINGLE  ELEMENTThe  building  is  accessible.  The  entrances  are  available.It's  not  

recommended  to  use  the  elevator.

The  building  is    mainly  accessible  by  emergency  staff.  Not  all  entrances  

are  available.  It's  not  recommended  to  use  the  elevator.

The  building  is  not  accessible.  All  entrances  are  

unreachable.

LINEAR  SCALE

Presence  of  small  floods.  The  road  is  practicable  by  all  vehicles.  It  is  not  recommended  transit  for  pedestrians  

and  two-­‐wheeled  vehicles.

Road  partially  flooded.  The  road  is  accessible  only  by  emergency  vehicles.Possibility  of  landslides.

Road  closed.  The  infrastructure  is  destroyed,  flooded  or  blocked  

by  debris.

AREAL  SCALEThe  area  is  accessible  to  

all.  Presence  of  localized  flooding.Partially  flooded  area.  Permitted  

access  only  to  emergency  vehicles.

Completely  flooded  area.  The  main  accesses  and  buildings  

are  unreachable.

-­‐  (Studi  progetto  inter.reg.    Ge.Ri.A  –  modificato)  

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of Residual Functionality

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0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

1

0 1 2 3 4

Res

idua

l fun

ctio

nalit

y [%

]

Water depth [m]

Residual functionality curves for point scale Schools, museums, public buildings,..

Residential buildings, hotel, commercial structures Health structures

Camping

Industrial plants

Vehicle Description

UCL-­‐ Local Control Unit: this vehicle is used innational mobile columns for natural disasters.It can be used with maximum water depth of0,3  meters.

4x4 Vehicle: this vehicle can be used with amaximum  water  depth  of  0,5  meters.

Amphibious vehicle: it is used in case ofnatural disasters for the rescue of people andthings in areas affected by flooding, or wherethe water level does not allow the transit ofearth  vehicles.

"Polisoccorso  logistico":  this  vehicle  is  similar  to  the  emergency  vehicle,  but  has  also  

logistical  equipment  that  allow  it  to  be  used  in  particular  in  the  initial  period  of  calamity  as  it  allow  the  team  to  operate  independently  from  central  logistics  base  of  the  mobile  column.  It  can  be  used  with  maximum  water  depth  of  0,5  

meters.

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

1

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Res

idua

l fun

ctio

nalit

y

Water depth [m]

Residual functionality curve for linear scale

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

1

0 1 2 3 4 5

Res

idua

l fun

ctio

nalit

y

Water depth [m]

Residual finctionality curve for areal scale (urban and commercial areas)

Risk Analysis – Vulnerability Analysis SUSCETPTIVITY INDICATORS – the Concept of Residual Functionality

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Risk Analysis MERGING HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY INTO RISK – RISK MATRIX

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From HAZARD to RISK

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Risk evaluation is the process of comparing the results of risk analysis with risk criteria to determine whether the risk and/or its magnitude is acceptable or tolerable.

Risk criteria are the terms of reference against which the significance of a risk is evaluated. The risk criteria may include associated costs and benefits, legal requirements, socioeconomic and environmental factors, concerns of stakeholders,etc.

Risk evaluation is used to make decisions about the significance of risks whether each specific risk should be accepted or treated.

Risk Analysis – Risk Evaluation

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Risk Assessment MITIGATION MEASURES ARE PRIORITIZED ON THE BASIS OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT WICH THEY MODIFY IN TURN

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The  Residual  Risk  is  the  result  of  planning  and  permanent  risk  mi:ga:on  ac:ons  

Interven:on  on  the  Hazard  e.g.:  Hydraulic  interven:on  improving  river  defenses  

Interven:on  on  the  Exposed  e.g.:  Delocaliza:on  of  buildings  from  hi-­‐risk  areas  Three-­‐years  interven:on  

programs;  Risk  Reduc:on  Plans  

Residual Risk after permanent risk mitigation measures Interven:on  on  the Vulnerability e.g:  Planning  rules  for  the  use  of  ground  and  underground  

Residual  Risk  (RR)  must  be  faced,  if  it  realizes,  with  real  7me  interven7on  by  Civil  Protec:on  

Uff. Previsione e Prevenzione

Flood area before the intervention

Area inondabile dopo l‘intervento

e.g.: electric control board relocation

Risk Assessment

Flood area after the

intervention

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A simple example of Residual Risk

T=50 yrs

T=200 yrs

Residual Risk

Local defense measure against flooding to reduce the inidation frequency

High vulnerability to Very frequent inundation (T=5-10 years)

Very low probabilities of rare events remain – Civil Protection warnings, insurance

Risk Assessment

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Interven:on  on  the    Hazard  e.g.:  Contrast  and  urgent  interven:on  (Sand  Sacks)  

Interven:on  on  Exposed  elements  e.g.:  Aid  to  popula:on,  delocaliza:on  of  person  and  goods.  

Interven:on  on  Vulnerability  e.g.:  Ac:va:on  of  specific  ac:on  in  civil  Protec:on  /  Emergency  Plans  

The  system  is  usually  focused  on  human  lives,  but  at  the  same  :me  it  can  act  as  a  loss  reduc:on  measure  effec:vely.  

Real-Time Residual Risk management Risk Assessment

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FF Risk reduction Strategies

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No Action - No measure is proposed to reduce the flood risk in the APSFR or other defined area Prevention a Avoidance - Measure to prevent the location of new or additional receptors in flood prone areas, such as land use planning policies or regulation b Removal or relocation - Measure to remove receptors from flood prone areas, or to relocate receptors to areas of lower probability of flooding and/or of lower hazard c Reduction - Measure to adapt receptors to reduce the adverse consequences in the event of a flood actions on buildings, public networks, etc... d Other - Other measure to enhance flood risk prevention (may include, flood risk modeling and assessment, flood vulnerability assessment, maintenance programmes or policies etc...)

FLOOD Management Measures

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Protection a Natural flood management / runoff and catchment management - Measures to reduce the flow into natural or artificial drainage systems, such as overland flow interceptors and / or storage, enhancement of infiltration, etc and including in-channel , floodplain works and the reforestation of banks, that restore natural systems to help slow flow and store water. b Water flow regulation - Measures involving physical interventions to regulate flows, such as the construction, modification or removal of water retaining structures (e.g., dams or other on-line storage areas or development of existing flow regulation rules), and which have a significant impact on the hydrological regime. c Channel, Coastal and Floodplain Works - Measures involving physical interventions in freshwater channels, mountain streams, estuaries, coastal waters and flood-prone areas of land, such as the construction, modification or removal of structures or the alteration of channels, sediment dynamics management, dykes, etc. d Surface Water Management - Measures involving physical interventions to reduce surface water flooding, typically, but not exclusively, in an urban environment, such as enhancing artificial drainage capacities or though sustainable drainage systems (SuDS). e Other - Other measure to enhance protection against flooding, which may include flood defense asset maintenance programmes or policies

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Preparedness a Flood Forecasting and Warning - Measure to establish or enhance a flood forecasting or warning system b Emergency Event Response Planning / Contingency planning - Measure to establish or enhance flood event institutional emergency response planning c Public Awareness and Preparedness - Measure to establish or enhance the public awareness or preparedness for flood events d Other - Other measure to establish or enhance preparedness for flood events to reduce adverse consequences

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Recovery a Individual and societal recovery - Clean-up and restoration activities (buildings, infrastructure, etc); Health and mental health supporting actions, incl. managing stress; Disaster financial assistance (grants, tax), incl.disaster legal assistance, disaster unemployment assistance; Temporary or permanent relocation; Other b Environmental recovery - Clean-up and restoration activities (with several sub-topics as mould protection, wellwater safety and securing hazardous materials containers); Other c Other – Lessons learnt from flood events; Insurance policies; Other

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Phases of Risk Assessment within RMP

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA

Establish context

Identify risks

analyse risks

evaluate risks

treat risks

Com

mun

icat

e &

Con

sult

Mon

itor &

Rev

iew

Ass

ess

Ris

k

Page 58: Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari

EWS in Flash floods NWP � No NWP�

Time Tc / Ts �

Spac

e Lm

et /

Lhy

dro�

Siccardi et al., JGR, 2005�

Unreliable�

Reliable �

Single Basin�

Multi Basin �

Deterministic�

Stochastic �

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Flood forecasting (No NWP) �

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1-o

tt-9

6

3-o

tt-9

6

5-o

tt-9

6

7-o

tt-9

6

9-o

tt-9

6

11

-ott

-96

13

-ott

-96

15

-ott

-96

17

-ott

-96

19

-ott

-96

21

-ott

-96

23

-ott

-96

25

-ott

-96

27

-ott

-96

29

-ott

-96

31

-ott

-96

2-n

ov

-96

Q (

m^3

/s)

Predicted Hydrograph� 2HM �

Observations Datasets �

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Flood forecasting (NWP Deterministic) �

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1-o

tt-9

6

3-o

tt-9

6

5-o

tt-9

6

7-o

tt-9

6

9-o

tt-9

6

11

-ott

-96

13

-ott

-96

15

-ott

-96

17

-ott

-96

19

-ott

-96

21

-ott

-96

23

-ott

-96

25

-ott

-96

27

-ott

-96

29

-ott

-96

31

-ott

-96

2-n

ov

-96

Q (

m^3

/s)

GCM � LAM�

Predicted Hydrograph� 2HM �

Data Assimilation�

Observations Datasets�

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Flood forecasting (NWP Stochastic) �

EPS� LEPS�

Downscaling�Predicted Hydrographs �

Peak discharge CDF�

2HM �

Data Assimilation�Parameter Set �

Observations Datasets�

Probability�Re-weighting �

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Flood forecasting (NWP Stochastic MB) �

EPS� LEPS�

Downscaling�Predicted Hydrographs �

Dimensionless Peak discharge CDF�

Data Assimilation�Parameter Set �

Observations Datasets�

Probability�Re-weighting �

HD�

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•  Use scales of visualization and analysis coherent with the information

•  Use coherent symbols •  Use coherent color coding throughout the whole Risk

Assessment Process and Risk Management as well •  Link graphical choices with actions and priorities •  Map the different elements of risk assessment separately

and the mix them together with increasing level of complexity

•  The map is not a figure, the map tells the story of a risk scenario

Communicating Risk Assessment The importance of Risk maps

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PGIS

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CBFFM

Page 66: Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari

Phases of Risk Assessment

Sources: EU Guidelines on RA

Establish context

Identify risks

analyse risks

evaluate risks

treat risks

Com

mun

icat

e &

Con

sult

Mon

itor &

Rev

iew

Ass

ess

Ris

k

Page 67: Day1 rudari risk_assessment_rudari