DeHavilland EUs Predictive Trend Report 2012

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DeHavilland EUs

Predictive Trends Report2012


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Contents

Introduction 3

Executive Summary 4

Survey Analysis

Economic Outlook

Question One: In light of the Eurozone crisis, how do you feel about the European

economic outlook for 2012? 5

Question Two: In your opinion, whats the one thing that the EU Commission

should do to help resolve the economic crisis in the Eurozone? 8

Question Three: Which areas of EU policy do you feel will face the biggest

challenges in 2012? Select up to three. 10

Question Four: In order to further the aims of your organisation, what would

you say is the single biggest change the EU could make in 2012? 13

Question Five: Do you agree with the introduction of an EU Financial

Transaction Tax? 15

European Citizens Initiative

Question Six: With the European Citizens Initiative (ECI) in place for 2012,

are you planning to make use of it? 17

External Relations

Question Seven: The European External Action Service one year on, do you

think that this year it will be...? 19

Question Eight: With whom should the EU seek to create better ties?

Select up to 3. 21

The Role of the EU and its Institutions

Question Nine: The European Parliament should play a bigger role in

solving the economic crisis. 24

Question Ten: Overall do you expect that the relevance of the EU in 2012 will...? 26

Conclusion 28

DeHavilland EUsPredictive Trends Report2012

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Introduction

In the run up to our national Predictive Trends Report 2011 which sought to investigatethe changing concerns of industry professionals in the UK context, DeHavilland EUsPredictive Trends Report 2012 looks at issues raised by the state of the European Union,with specific focus on the current economic downturn, Europes place in the globalmarketplace, and the perceived effectiveness of new EU legislation and policy.

The report is based on a survey circulated among approximately four thousand EUindustry professionals in February and March 2012. All data presented has beencategorized into five groups: charitable organizations; consultancy groups; corporations;membership organizations and trade unions; and public sector organisations. Allresponses presented in the survey report have been anonymised.

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Executive Summary

De Havilland EUs Predictive Trends Survey 2012 found that:lPeople are generally slightly pessimistic about the overall outlook for the Europeaneconomy in 2012. However, a significant minority do have an optimistic outlook.lSuggestions on how to help fix the Eurozone crisis vary, but in general recommend afocus on stability and increasing unity among the Member States; several responsessuggested allowing weaker Member States to leave the Euro in order to protect theEU as a whole.lEconomic governance was widely regarded to be the biggest challenge facing theEU in 2012.lMore than half of people surveyed stated that the biggest thing the EU could do to helptheir organization prosper in 2012 would be to stabilize the overall economy in Europe.

lA majority of people across all groups surveyed are in favour of the introduction of aEuropean Financial Transaction Tax, however, reactions to the European CitizensInitiative and the European External Action Service are significantly less enthusiastic.lA majority of people believe that the EU should focus its attention on building strongerlinks with China, Russia and India, with the USA and South America near the bottom ofthe list.l The majority of people believe that the EU should play a larger role in fixing the currentEurozone economic crisis.lGenerally, people believe that the EU will grow in relevance over the coming year.

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Survey Analysis

Question 1:In light of the Eurozone crisis, how do

you feel about the European economicoutlook for 2012?

With the latest OECD Interim Economic Forecast1 predicting a fragile outlook for the EU,contrasting with robust growth in the United States and Canada for the first half of 2012, itis unsurprising that moral remains low in Europe. The Eurozone debt crisis is still looming,with borrowing costs for countries such as Spain and Italy spiralling compared toGermanys, and this fact is shown clearly in the survey results.

Almost four out of ten respondents (39%) stated that they were pessimistic about theEuropean economic outlook as a whole, compared to only one in four (25%) who said

they were either optimistic or very optimistic for the next twelve months. However, asignificant number of respondents (36%) stated that they were neither more nor lessoptimistic about Europes economic future in the light of the Eurozone crisis. This reflectsa global uncertainty regarding the future of the EU economy as a whole. In spite of ananticipated world economic growth of 3.5%2, the IMF singled out the Eurozone as apotential source of concerns.

Responses to the question:In light of the Eurozone

crisis, how do you feel aboutthe European economicoutlook for 2012?

1 See OECD Interim Economic Outlook Assessment, 29 March 2012

2 See IMF World Economic Outlook, 18 April 2012

5

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/44/56/49995523.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/44/56/49995523.pdf


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Although there is a rough correlation to the overall totals, charitable groups andcorporations were much more likely than the average to select the middle-ground option,answering that they were neither more or less optimistic about the European economy in2012. As shown in the previous chart, responses from all groups tended to cluster aroundthe mid-point, with a slight pessimistic skew; despite this, no respondent from any groupanswered that they were very pessimistic about the future of Europes economy. TheEuropean Union remains an important trading partner for China and the United States inparticular, with Germany exports boosting the overall EU trade volumes3 with thirdcountries thanks to a competitive industry.

3 See Eurostats Full Tablewith Trade Flows per country, 16 April 2012.

Responses to the question:In light of the Eurozonecrisis, how do you feel aboutthe European economic

outlook for 2012? collectedby optimistic/pessimisticseparated by sector.
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/12/56&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=enhttp://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/12/56&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=enhttp://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/12/56&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en


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Applying a weighted score of 1 and 2 for optimistic and very optimistic, and a score of -1and -2 for pessimistic and very pessimistic respectively (with neither less nor morepessimistic assigned a value of zero), it can be seen that there is a slight trend towardspessimism overall out of a maximum score of -2, the total average is just -0.08.Charitable organisations, membership organisations and corporations are more likelythan the average to be pessimistic about the European economic outlook in 2012. On theoccasion of a debate on how to overcome the Euro crisis in Strasbourg EuropeanParliaments plenary session, the leader of the Liberal ALDE Group, Guy VerhofstadtMEP, warned the crisis is not over because we have only been addressing thesymptoms. The sluggish growth prospects combined with an acute debt crisis led anumber of organisations to call for further reforms to create conditions for growths whilecutting public spending.

Responses to the question:In light of the Eurozonecrisis, how do you feel aboutthe European economic

outlook for 2012? collectedby optimistic/pessimisticseparated by sector.

Charity

Consultancy

CorporateMembershipOrganisation

PublicSector

Total


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Question 2:In your opinion, whats the one thing

that the EU Commission should do tohelp resolve the economic crisis in theEurozone?

When asked an open question regarding the most effective solution to the Eurozonecrisis, results were (as might be expected) mixed.

In several responses, certain countries were singled out for criticism. Germany received

several comments, noting that they should clearly tell Germany to start paying, forceGermany to agree to stability bonds and resist Germany being always top-dog.The strong stance of German Chancellor Merkel on the importance of maintainingthe independent role of the European Central Bank or the willingness to include adebt brake in the Fiscal Treaty signed last December has been mitigated by recentconcessions. As the crisis has spread from Ireland to Portugal, Greece and now Italyand Spain, Germany demonstrated its ability to find a consensus with its Europeanpartners. Eurozone leaders at the end of March reached a key agreement on boostingthe European Finance Stability Facility (EFSF) firewall, which is to be merged with thepermanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in July 20124.

However, the economically weaker members of the EU were also mentioned: therewere calls to allow some countries to leave the Eurozone so they can devalue and kickstart their economies, remove Greece from [the] Eurozone, and start openly workingon a plan to help Greece, Portugal and Spain have a managed exit from the Euro. Therecent rise in the borrowing costs for Spain with 10-year bonds sold at a yield exceeding6%5 will contribute to increased political pressures on Europe to find sustainable andlong-term solutions.

In contrast, there were also calls to ensure that the markets themselves make a concertedeffort to appear strong to the world at large: for example, to make it clear to states outsidethe union that the Euro is here to stay and will be defended without reservation, as wellas a significant number of responses calling for investment in the active growth andincreased stability of the Euro as a currency suitable for trade in the global marketplace.In response to growing criticism against the EU for failing to formulate concrete policyresponses to the economic crisis, the European Commission released a new employmentpackage in a Communication Towards a Job Rich Economy on 18 April 2012. With24 million unemployed people6 in the Union 10% of the work force the situationbetween individual countries still varies wildly from Germany as the motor of Europeto debt-ridden countries in the Mediterranean.

4 See the Final Statement of the Eurogroup, 30 March 2012

5 Financial Times, Spain borrowing costs rise above 6%, 16 April 2012

6 See Eurostat Figures, 2 April 2012
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=#axzz1sVANv2QAhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=#axzz1sVANv2QAhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-02042012-AP/EN/3-02042012-AP-EN.PDFhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-02042012-AP/EN/3-02042012-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=#axzz1sVANv2QAhttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8c8b0638-87a8-11e1-ade2-00144feab49a.html&_i_referer=#axzz1sVANv2QA


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In this context,a large number of respondents called for greater unity among the EUmember states, allowing for decreased bureaucracy and a streamlining of efforts to getthe economy back on track.

Finally, despite the fact that the EU generally comes under a lot of criticism in the mediaacross Europe and from national Governments, the vast majority of suggestions receivedwere logical, pro-Europe, and forward-thinking: while one respondent stated that therewas no silver bullet and another stated that the best solution would be for the EU todissolve itself, in general terms the respondents were in favour of fixing the flaws in thecurrent system, and did not consider the current issues to be entirely unworkable: despitea general pessimism about the European economic outlook in 2012, there is still plainlythe potential for change and improvement in the future.


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Question 3:Which areas of EU policy do you

feel will face the biggest challenges in2012? Select up to three.

Perhaps understandably, given the economic crisis currently sweeping Europe fromlocalised Eurozone concerns to national bailouts, economic governance is widelybelieved to be one of the areas of EU policy that will face the biggest challenges in 2012;78% of respondents almost four out of five selected it as among their top threeanswers. In a distant second place, with a selection by only 42% of respondents, wasenergy, demonstrating that even in dark economic times, long-term concerns aboutenvironmental impacts and the future of energy dependence on an increasingly unstableMiddle East and an unpredictable Russia are very much at the forefront of respondentsminds. The importance of energy as a source of potential growth is seen as essential forthe transition to a low-carbon economy, explaining why energy features high on the list ofthe respondents priorities. Energy as part of the solution was also the core of the

message of the Greek government and the European Commission, announcing in earlyApril 2012 the launch of the so called Helyos Project to boost revenues from solarenergy in the country. Commissions President Barroso stressed on that occasion:Renewables offer major opportunities in terms of industrial innovation and job creationand can contribute to creating new competitive industrial sectors in Europe, withsignificant export potential for a growing world market. 7

7 Speech delivered by Jos Manual Barroso, President of the European Commission, 3 April 2012. Athens

Responses to the question:Which areas of EU policy doyou feel will face the biggestchallenges in 2012? Select upto three.

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Justice

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Inte

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The issues of least concern were food labelling and food safety, health andpharmaceuticals, and transport, despite the latter two generally being of great concernwhen viewed domestically. The impact of new animal welfare laws, such as CouncilDirective 1999/74/EC on laying hens prohibiting the rearing of hens in battery cages

which entered into force on 1st January 2012, do however regularly make the headlinesand are the subject of many parliamentary questions. Overall, the interest of stakeholdersusually remain directed by the EUs own political agenda explaining why these issuesare now viewed as less pressing, given the recent conclusion of the food information toconsumers reform8, the pharmaceutical package9 and the Animal Welfare Strategy10.

Generally speaking, the group selections follow the general trends, with a few notableexceptions. Corporate institutions are far more concerned by agriculture than theaverage, but the biggest variance comes with the European External Action Service(EEAS); while only 36% of respondents overall selected it as among their three answers,two thirds of charitable organisations and nearly nine out of ten public sector groups(88%) surveyed gave it as a response. This anomaly might be explained by the fact thatthe EEAS is one of the key innovations included in the Lisbon Treaty, which entered intoforce in 2009. After lengthy consultations between the diplomatic services of the MemberStates and the different EU institutions, the EEAS was launched on 1st December 2011.

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8 Regulation (EU) No 1169/20111on food information to consumers was published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 22

November 2011 and most provisions will enter into force in 2014.

9 The Pharmaceutical Packageincluding a set of different proposals was launched in 2008 to improve information to patients, improve

the internal market and combat against falsified medicines. It was completed in 2011.

10 TheAnimal Welfare Strategy for 20122015was released in February 2012 following extensive consultations with stakeholders

across Europe.

Responses to the question:Which areas of EU policy doyou feel will face the biggest

challenges in 2012? Select upto three. separated by sector.

Media

&Te

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Justice

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Inte

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Health&

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http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:304:0018:0063:EN:PDFhttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:304:0018:0063:EN:PDFhttp://ec.europa.eu/health/human-use/package_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/health/human-use/package_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/food/animal/welfare/actionplan/docs/aw_strategy_19012012_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/food/animal/welfare/actionplan/docs/aw_strategy_19012012_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/food/animal/welfare/actionplan/docs/aw_strategy_19012012_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/health/human-use/package_en.htmhttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:304:0018:0063:EN:PDF


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% Charity Consultancy Corporate Membership

Organisation/

Trade Union

Public Sector Total

Agriculture 0% 8% 60% 38% 13% 22%

Culture & Education 0% 8% 0% 13% 0% 6%

Economic Governance 100% 83% 80% 63% 75% 78%

Energy 33% 50% 40% 38% 38% 42%

European External

Action Service

67% 17% 20% 13% 88% 36%

Food Labelling &

Food Safety

0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 3%

Health & Pharmaceuticals 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%

Internal Market 0% 50% 20% 25% 38% 33%

International Development 33% 0% 20% 13% 13% 11%

Justice and Home Affairs 67% 17% 40% 25% 13% 25%

Media &

Telecommunications

0% 8% 0% 25% 13% 11%

Transport 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 3%

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Responses to the question:Which areas of EU policy doyou feel will face the biggestchallenges in 2012? Select up

to three. separated by sector.


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Question 4:In order to further the aims of your

organisation, what would you say is thesingle biggest change the EU could makein 2012?

As it has been highlighted by other questions, one of the biggest concerns facing theEU at the moment is the issue of bringing balance back to the region in the wake of theEurozone crisis. As such, it should come as no surprise that the notion of restoring stabilityto the economy as a whole is considered of primary importance to many people withregards to the success of their organisations in 2012; 56% of respondents selected it astheir answer, outstripping the second place options (increased funding and decreasedbureaucracy) by a factor of almost four votes to one. It reflects an overall pessimisticoutlook as shown by the latest Flash Eurobarometer on the social impact of the crisis

published in April 2012, which indicated that 80% of Europeans think poverty hasincreased in their own country over the past 12 months11. Despite a general consensuson the necessity to alleviate the consequences of the financial crisis to prevent economicrecession, the exact scope and form of the new structures of economic governanceremain to be defined.

11 See the Flash Eurobarometer on the social impact of the crisis, Wave 6, 18 April 2012,

Responses to the question:In order to further the aimsof your organisation, whatwould you say is the single

biggest change the EU couldmake in 2012?
http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/other_taxes/financial_sector/com(2011)594_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/other_taxes/financial_sector/com(2011)594_en.pdf


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Responses to the question:In order to further the aimsof your organisation, whatwould you say is the single

biggest change the EU couldmake in 2012? separatedby sector.


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Question 5:Do you agree with the introduction of an

EU Financial Transaction Tax?

On 28 September 2011, the European Commission released a new proposal forintroducing a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT)12 to ensure that the financial services sector

makes a fair contribution to public spending. Overall, there was a strong favourableresponse to the introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax in the EU, with almost six outof ten 58% of respondents stating that they agreed with the idea, compared to 17%who were opposed. While the City of London is warning against a possible capitalflight and would prefer a generalisation of the UK system of stamp duty, the EuropeanCommission argues that if used for the EU own resources, it could contribute toreduce Member States contributions to the EU budget by 50%13. However, one in fourrespondents had no strong feelings on the subject, stating that they neither agreednor disagreed with the idea.

12 See theProposal for a Council Directive on a financial transaction tax and amending Direct ive 2008/7/EC, COM(2011)594, 28

September 2011.

13 See theCommissions estimates for GNI reductions, Press Release, 23 March 2012.

Responses to the question:Do you agree with theintroduction of an EUFinancial Transaction Tax?
http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/other_taxes/financial_sector/com(2011)594_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/other_taxes/financial_sector/com(2011)594_en.pdfhttp://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/12/300http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/12/300http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/12/300http://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/other_taxes/financial_sector/com(2011)594_en.pdf


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When taken as a weighted average, it can be seen that every group surveyed is in favourof the implementation of a Financial Transactions Tax in the EU, with charitable groupsbeing by far the most likely to agree with the plan; on average, respondents fromcharitable groups voted somewhere between slightly agree and strongly agree on thetopic. Consultancy groups and membership organisations, on the other hand, were lesslikely than average to be in favour of the plan, but overall were still in agreement with theidea. Indeed, despite consensus over the need to achieve a fairer distribution of taxburdens across different sectors, including financial services, divisions among MemberStates over the scope and method of the FTT is likely to slow down negotiations betweennational Governments and the European Parliament, with the latter expected to hold itsfirst reading before the summer.

Responses to the question:Do you agree with theintroduction of an EUFinancial Transaction Tax?

separated by sector.

Responses to the question:Do you agree with theintroduction of an EUFinancial Transaction Tax?separated by sector.


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Question 6:With the European Citizens Initiative

(ECI) in place for 2012, are you planningto make use of it?

Responses to the question:With the European CitizensInitiative (ECI) in place for2012, are you planning tomake use of it?

Responses to the question:With the European CitizensInitiative (ECI) in place for2012, are you planning tomake use of it? separatedby sector.


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The ECI has been one of the most notable pieces of legislation to emerge from the recentTreaty of Lisbon which entered into force in December 2009. Although it is designed tomake the EU more accessible to citizens14, the results of this survey indicate that is notlikely to have a major impact on the majority of people. One in six respondents 17%

state that they are currently aware of the ECI, and an even greater number of respondents(42%) have not yet made up their minds. Even out of those respondents who were bothaware of the purpose of the ECI and who had made a decision on whether or not to use it,people answering no outnumbered people answering yes by a margin of two to one,leaving just 14% of respondents who feel sure that they plan to actively engage with theEuropean Citizens Initiative in the future. The fact that the ECI Regulation (EC) No.211/201115 entered into force on 1st April 2012 paved the way for the use of this newparticipatory democracy tool. However, reactions from EU stakeholders have been mixedwith rising concerns over the lack of real input for citizens. The new ECI may well providecitizens and interest groups with new possibilities to influence the agenda of the European

Commission, but the European Network of National Civil Society Associations reportedonerous administrative costs as a likely barrier to the use of ECIs. The organisation wasalso wary of the excessive online security constraints imposed by the Commission.16

14 Under our plans, members of the public could invite the European commission to put forward legislative proposals in areas where

the commission has the power to do so providing at least 1 million citizens from at least one third of EU member states sign the

initiative (nine countries, as things stand). efcovic, M. (2010, March 31). Bringing Europe closer to its citizens. Retrieved March 21,

2012. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/31/european-citizens-initiative-europe

15 See Regulation (EC) No. 211/2011on the Citizens Initiative, 16 February 2011

16 See ENNA, Press Release, 3 April 2012,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/31/european-citizens-initiative-europehttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:065:0001:0022:EN:PDFhttp://www.enna-europe.org/index.phphttp://www.enna-europe.org/index.phphttp://www.enna-europe.org/index.phphttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2011:065:0001:0022:EN:PDFhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/31/european-citizens-initiative-europe


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Question 7:The European External Action Service

one year on, do you think that this yearit will be...?

When asked about their expectations for the EEAS in 2012, respondents were asked toplace their answer into one of three categories: Mostly effective: An efficient tool topromote the interests of the European Union abroad; Somewhat effective: The first steptowards a full diplomatic representation of the Union around the world; or Not veryeffective: An unnecessary duplication of existing national diplomatic resources. At ahearing organised by the AFCO Committee in March, many MEPs expressed theirdisappointment over the lack of EEAS leadership. A number of MEPs, such as AnnemieNeyets-Uytterbroeck MEP (ALDE) or Ulrike Lunacek MEP (EFA/Greens) acknowledgedhowever that the EEAS was a success in spite of obstacles. The EEAS is now the the 6thbiggest service for foreign affairs in the world.

Responses to the question:The European ExternalAction Service one year on,do you think that this year itwill be...?


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Responses tended to be clustered around the total averages, with few outliers. Charitablegroups were (along with membership organisations) more likely to expect that the EEAS

would be somewhat effective, but ultimately there is little significant variation between thegroups surveyed.

Responses to the question:The European ExternalAction Service one yearon, do you think that this

year it will be...? separatedby sector.


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Question 8:With whom should the EU seek to create

better ties? Select up to 3.

Understandably, given Chinas ever-increasing dominance on the global stage, a majorityof respondents selected it as among their top three options; 58% of people asked believe

that the EU should seek to build stronger ties in the region. China has been gaining inimportance in trade relations with the country, having become the EUs second tradingpartner after the United States. From 2006 to 2010, EU trade with China grew by 11.2%and the country is expected to become its foremost trading partner in the next few years17.Beyond economic relations, at the EU-China summit in October 2010, EU and Chinasleaders decided to name 2012 as the EU-China Year of Intercultural Dialogue18. As part ofthis initiative, Androulla Vassiliou, European Commissioner for Education, Culture,Multilingualism and Youth, and Liu Yandong, Chinese State Councillor, signed a new JointDeclaration to launch a people-to-people dialogue covering education, culture, youth,research and multilingualism. The EU relationship with China is likely to deepen further asthe countrys development accelerates.

17 For more statistics on EU-China Trade Relations, see DG Trade Main Economic Indicators, 21 March 2012.

18 For more information, seeEU-China Year of Intercultural Dialogue.

Responses to the question:With whom should the EUseek to create better ties?Select up to 3.
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113366.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/culture/eu-china/about_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/culture/eu-china/about_en.htmhttp://ec.europa.eu/culture/eu-china/about_en.htmhttp://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113366.pdf


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Unusually, given South Americas importance in terms of energy production the regioncontains two members of OPEC (Ecuador and Venezuela) and overall wealth (twocountries other than Brazil feature in the global top 30 with regards to GDP, namelyArgentina and Colombia), only 14% of respondents selected other South American

countries. EU27 exports to Brazil increased by 24% in January 2012 compared to theprevious year.19 Additionally, the USA ranked second-to-bottom, with only 19% ofrespondents selecting it. The massive disparity between China and the USA in terms ofselection numbers may indicate a wider turning-away from the traditionally-held SpecialRelationship between the USA and the UK, suggesting that a significant number ofrespondents would prefer to look to new markets to increase the EUs global prominence.In a recent essay for the Think Tank German Marshall Fund, Constanze Stelzenmller,Senior Transatlantic Fellow, pointed out that today the problem of both America andEurope is the diffusion and erosion of their own power, noting that the challenge of the21st century is not the weakness of others, but the weakness of the West20. Conversely,

respondents may feel that the EU-United States relationship is already sufficientlywell-developed for Europe to concentrate its efforts elsewhere.

Fittingly, every respondent who belonged to a membership organisation or trade unionselected China as one of their options, compared to 58% overall; additionally, they had amuch higher-than-average likelihood of selecting Africa as a region of interest, with over60% choosing it as one of their top three. Consultancy groups were much more likely thanother respondents to suggest that the EU focus its attention on building ties with Russia,while the corporate sector was likely to choose Brazil. Despite being the lowest-ranked ofthe options given, public sector workers were most likely to nominate other SouthAmerican countries as the region which most deserved the EUs efforts to built strongerinternational ties.

19 Euro area external trade surplus 2.8 bn euro, Eurostats, 16 April 2012

20The West runs out of powerby Constance Stelzenmueller, The German Mashall Fund of United States, 9 April 2012

Responses to the question:With whom should the EUseek to create better ties?Select up to 3. separatedby sector.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-16042012-AP/EN/6-16042012-AP-EN.PDFhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/6-16042012-AP/EN/6-16042012-AP-EN.PDF


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% Charity Consultancy Corporate Membership

Organisation/

Trade Union

Public Sector Total

Africa 33% 33% 20% 63% 25% 36%

Arab States 33% 50% 20% 13% 38% 33%

Brazil 33% 17% 60% 25% 38% 31%

China 33% 50% 60% 100% 38% 58%

India 67% 17% 60% 50% 38% 39%

Russia 33% 75% 20% 13% 25% 39%

USA 0% 25% 20% 13% 25% 19%

Other South American

Countries

0% 0% 21% 0% 55% 15%

Responses to the question:With whom should the EUseek to create better ties?Select up to 3. separated

by sector.


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Question 9:The European Parliament should play a

bigger role in solving the economic crisis.

When offered the statement The European Parliament should play a bigger role insolving the economic crisis, a significant plurality of respondents (39%) stated that they

strongly agreed. This was part of a general trend towards increased EuropeanParliamentary involvement, with two-thirds of respondents (67%) agreeing with thestatement (strongly or slightly), compared to just 17% respondents who disagreed. Asmall but significant number of respondents (17%) remained on the fence about theissue, professing neither agreement nor disagreement with the idea of an increasedintervention. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the European Parliament has significantlyextended its power with a wide range of new policies falling into the ordinary legislativeprocedure (ex co-decision), meaning that MEPs decide new EU legislation on an equalfooting with the Member States Council in areas such as agriculture, immigration, justiceand international trade21.

Although the European Parliament has been able to co-legislate on a number of keyfinancial reforms, such as the economic governance package involving the creation of aEuropean Semester to coordinate budgetary policies of the different Member States, itremained outside of the ad-hoc debt crisis management talks held mainly by France andGermany at Ministerial level. On the occasion of the April 2012 Strasbourg plenary forinstance, the leader of the liberal ALDE group, Guy Verhofstadt MEP (Belgium), calledfor more parliamentary debates on solutions to the current economic crisis that Europeis facing.

21 For an overview of over 50 new EU competencies involving the voting powers of the European Parliament, seeAnnex IV, The

Lisbon Treaty, 10 easy-to-read Fact Sheets, Robert Schuman Institute, December 2009, p. 39

Responses to the question:The European Parliamentshould play a bigger role insolving the economic crisis.
http://www.robert-schuman.eu/doc/divers/lisbonne/en/10fiches.pdfhttp://www.robert-schuman.eu/doc/divers/lisbonne/en/10fiches.pdfhttp://www.robert-schuman.eu/doc/divers/lisbonne/en/10fiches.pdf


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Overall, every group surveyed believed that greater intervention from the EU isnecessary. While public sector workers were the most likely to suggest that they were infavour of the idea (with membership organisations less favourably disposed to italtogether), the strong overall cohesion amongst the groups suggests that this is amainstream response that is likely to be popular in the wider population. If there is aconsensus over the need for greater European economic governance, the debateremains open over the scope of EU integration. The possibility of enhanced cooperationintroduced by the Lisbon Treaty allowing a group of Member States to go ahead withcertain policies in spite of the veto of certain Member States and the fact that the Eurocurrency is not introduced in all EU countries might lead to the creation of different levelsof EU intervention according to the policy area the UK opt out of the recent Fiscal Treatybeing the best example of the different approaches to the role to be played by theEuropean Union.

Responses to the question:The European Parliamentshould play a bigger role insolving the economic crisis.separated by sector.

Responses to the question:The European Parliamentshould play a bigger role insolving the economic crisis.separated by sector.


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Question 10:Overall do you expect that the relevance

of the EU in 2012 will...?

Although there is a trend towards a belief that the EU will grow in relevance in 2012 44%of respondents expected growth (slight or significant) in the coming months, compared to

19% who expected an overall decrease more than a third of respondents noted thatthey expected the relevance of the EU to stay at roughly the same level.

Responses to the question:Overall do you expect thatthe relevance of the EU in2012 will...?


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Despite the fact that most groups believed that there would be an increase in therelevance of the European Union in 2012, corporate groups on average believed thatit would stay at the same level. By contrast, charitable groups were significantly morelikely than the average to expect an overall growth in relevance. Two years after the entryinto force of the Lisbon Treaty, the position of the Charitable Groups might be related tonew possibilities offered by the European Citizenship Initiative (see Question 6), or EUpolicies in more areas, such as Sport (Art. 165 TFEU).

Responses to the question:Overall do you expect thatthe relevance of the EU in2012 will...? separated

by sector.

Responses to the question:Overall do you expect thatthe relevance of the EU in2012 will...? separatedby sector.


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Conclusion

If anything in 2012, the relevance of the EU will not fade away. However, with the sword of

Damocles of a further spreading of the Eurozone debt crisis still hanging over the EUs

capitals, the EU might makes the headlines for the wrong reasons. It is clear from our survey

that over half of the respondents expect the EU to be the driving force to restore the stability of

the European economy. Despite an overall belief in a greater role for Brussels in stopping the

crisis, it remains unclear if the steps taken by the EU will turn out to be correct.

Despite overall high expectations, corporations tended in the survey to believe on average

that the relevance of the EU would stay the same in 2012. In the past few months, the urgent

need for economic reform proved both to be an opportunity for testing the new possibilities of

the Lisbon Treaty and a threat to the Union itself. While almost four in five respondents named

economic governance as being the biggest challenge that the EU would face this year, theyalso highlighted a number of hurdles, such as the issue of Germany as a brake rather than a

motor of European integration. The recent agreement on boosting the European Finance

Stability Facility (EFSF) might however assuage at least temporarily the divisions among

the Member States over the type of economic governance needed. While economic reforms

were named as the biggest challenge for 2012, respondents also named energy as a key

issue the problem of rising prices and dependence on imports featuring high on the agenda.

Moreover, the survey highlights the limitations of the Lisbon Treaty, with two thirds of

respondents being in favour of a bigger role for the European Parliament in defining policies

to combat the economic crisis. Despite the new competencies given to the Parliament, it has

mostly been the Member States driving the economic reform agenda. The new Fiscal Treaty

does not include any oversight role as such for MEPs the Commission being the main

austerity watchdog. This democratic deficit has been widely criticized, in the UK in particular.

Giving evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee in the House of Commons in London,

the London School of Economics academic Simon Hix22 recommended that the EU should

put in place a more democratically legitimate political leadership structure, such as a

directly-elected Commission President. The fact that only a minority of respondents one is

six indicated that they were aware of the new European Citizens Initiative (ECI) underlines

as well the need for a more effective communication between the EU and its citizens.

Finally, 2012 marks the first year anniversary of the European External Action Service (EEAS) a key feature of the Lisbon Treaty to boost the credentials of the EU as an international

player. Most respondents indicated mixed expectations for the EEAS effectiveness. However,

asked about the geographical focus, it is significant that they suggested developing better ties

with China and South American countries over the US, which might be explained by a relative

weakness of the West23. Both the new post-Lisbon institutional landscape and the pressure

on the EU to deliver in a time of crisis accentuate the tensions over defining the role and

shape of the EU. 2012 will be a decisive year to test the resilience and relevance of the Union.

22 See Written Evidence for the European Scrutiny Committee on Possibilities for Reinforcing the Eurozone Following the December

European Councilby Simon Hix, Professor of European and Comparative Politics London School of Economics and Political Science,

4 January 2012

23The West runs out of powerby Constance Stelzenmueller, The German Mashall Fund of United States, 9 April 2012

2012 will be adecisive year totest the resilience

and relevance ofthe Union.
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/Hix-Evidence-4Jan2012.pdfhttp://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/Hix-Evidence-4Jan2012.pdfhttp://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/Hix-Evidence-4Jan2012.pdfhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://www.gmfus.org/archives/the-west-runs-out-of-powerhttp://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/Hix-Evidence-4Jan2012.pdfhttp://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/Hix-Evidence-4Jan2012.pdf


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About Us

Launched in summer 2010, DeHavilland EU provides political intelligence, monitoring andbespoke research services for public affairs professionals. Our services are designed tohelp you influence policy and/or inform your strategy by anticipating change so you canbetter manage the risks facing your organisation.

Contact UsHelene Champagne, DirectorDeHavilland EU

4C-Group Ltd4th FloorSquare de Meeus, 371000 BrusselsBelgiumT: +32 (0) 2791 7615F: +32 (0) 2791 7900E: [email protected]: www1.dehavillandeurope.eu

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Documents

DeHavilland EUs Predictive Trend Report 2012