DER Sub-Group

DISASTER & EMERGENCY RESPONSE

DER Sub-Group Meeting

FLOODS – 2004

Situation Overview

DER Sub-Group

A developing emergency

• Main wave of monsoon flooding, started 8 July.• Followed earlier floods in Haor Areas in April that

destroyed 80% of Boro crop.• Jamuna (Brahmaputra Basin in spate at same

time as Surma/Meghna Rivers.• Highest floods for many years (98/88) –

overtopping many embankments, etc. • Long duration (3 weeks) & rising more than once.• Draining from North, & slowly receding in Centre.• But now the standing water is STAGNATING…

DER Sub-Group

DER Sub-Group

DER Sub-Group

DER Sub-Group

CURRENT RIVER FLOOD SITUATION

CURRENT RIVER FLOOD SITUATION

DER Sub-Group

Current Flood Situation

• Water has receded in North revealing losses – but farmers face severe seed shortage.

• Water still high in Northeast.

• Rate of drainage depends on upstream situation in India & sea state in the Bay.

• Floods in Centre are expected to continue to recede slowly.

• Could take 2 weeks for total recession.

DER Sub-Group

5 DAY FORECAST5 DAY FORECAST

DER Sub-Group

Weather Forecasts

• This week should be mostly dry, with thunderstorms on Thu-Sat & next Wed.

• More rain expected through to 12 Aug:– 50-65 mm rain across Bangladesh, 02-12 Aug– 65-85 mm rain in Northwest, 07-12 Aug– 35-80 mm rain in Ganges & Brahmaputra Basins

• What happens in these wider catchment areas over Aug is critical.

• One or more further flood peaks are possible before end-Aug.

DER Sub-Group

Worst Case Scenario:

Brahmaputra / Jamuna & Ganges / Padma in spate at same time, bringing Meghna Basin into flood.

Worst Case Scenario:

Brahmaputra / Jamuna & Ganges / Padma in spate at same time, bringing Meghna Basin into flood.

DER Sub-Group

What does it all mean ?

VULNERABILILTY ANALYSISVULNERABILILTY ANALYSIS

DER Sub-Group

DER Sub-Group

DER Sub-Group

DER Sub-Group

Losses (Govt figures, 1 Aug 04)

Affected Districts 39 Affected families 6,511,988

Affected Upazila 260 Affected pop. 32,899,082

Affected Unions 2,341 Reported deaths 586

Affected area (km2) 28,572 Livestock deaths 20,638

Shelters Opened 5,037 People sheltered 1,570,640

DER Sub-Group

Losses (Govt figures, 1 Aug 04)

Crop damage (full) 1,424,483 Crop damage (partial)

1,200,384

Houses destroyed 155,142 Houses damaged 3,140,673

Destroyed roads (km)

12,462 Damaged roads 41,223

Destroyed schools/religious

1,225 Damaged schools/religious

23,188

Damaged bridges/culverts

5,313