Disaster Risk Managment Midterm

Centre for Disaster Preparedness and Management

Disaster Risk Management Midterm Exam

Adnann safi 4/8/2014

1 | P a g e A d n a n A n w a r

Table of Contents

Disaster Risk Assessment ...................................................................................................... 3

Purpose of Risk Assessment; ............................................................................................. 3

Characteristics of Risk Assessment; ................................................................................... 4

Components of DRA: ........................................................................................................ 4

1. Hazard Assessment or hazard identification ............................................................ 4

2. Vulnerability Assessment: ....................................................................................... 4

3. Capacity Assessment:.............................................................................................. 4

4. People’s Perception: ................................................................................................ 5

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT DESIGN ......................................................................... 5

Steps in Disaster Risk Assessment: .................................................................................... 5

Step # 1 RISK ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................ 6

RISK: ................................................................................................................................ 6

Creation of Risk: ............................................................................................................ 6

Types of Risk ................................................................................................................. 6

On the basis of level three types of risk .......................................................................... 6

IDENTIFICATION OF RISK ........................................................................................ 6

Elements at Risk; ........................................................................................................... 7

Source of Risk: .............................................................................................................. 7

Information about Risk: ................................................................................................. 7

Intensity of Risk: ............................................................................................................ 8

Frequency; ..................................................................................................................... 8

Magnitude: ..................................................................................................................... 8

Risk Assessment ................................................................................................................ 8

Why we do Risk Assessment; ........................................................................................ 8

Risk identification on community level: or in a particular area ....................................... 9

Ways of Managing Risk ................................................................................................. 9

Step # 2 HAZARD ASSESSMENT .............................................................................. 10

Factors to be considered during hazards assessment ..................................................... 10

Information required for hazard assessment.................................................................. 10

Factors to consider in understanding the nature & behavior of hazards ......................... 10

TOOLS FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT......................................................................... 11

1. Hazard Mapping: .................................................................................................. 11

2. Historical Profile: .................................................................................................. 11


3. Seasonal Calendars: .............................................................................................. 11

4. Hazard Matrix: ...................................................................................................... 11

Step # 3 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................ 12

Vulnerability: .................................................................................................................. 12

Categories of Vulnerability/Types ................................................................................... 12

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ............................................................................... 13

Characteristics of Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................. 13

Step # 4 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ............................................................................ 14

In capacity assessment: ................................................................................................ 14

Characteristics of Capacity: .......................................................................................... 14

Classification of Capacity: ........................................................................................... 14

Triggers for Capacity Development:............................................................................. 14

Level of Capacity: ........................................................................................................ 14

FLOOD ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................... 14

Global Tend in Disaster ....................................................................................................... 15

Cause of Global Trend Disaster: ...................................................................................... 16


Disaster Risk Assessment

Disaster Risk Assessment is a systematic process to understand the possible disaster situation and predict the severity of possible future hazards, its damaging effects, the needs and available resources at a certain location.

Disaster Risk Assessment at the community level is a participatory process of determining the nature, scope and magnitude of negative effects of hazards to the community and its households within a predicted time period (ADPC).

Disaster Risk Assessment Is the process of determining: o The impact which a hazard has had on a society o The needs and priorities for immediate emergency measures to save and

sustain the lives of survivors. o The resources available o The possibilities for facilitating and expediting long-term recovery and

development.

Disaster risk Assessment is a process (usually undertaken in phases) of collecting, interpreting and analyzing information from various sources.

Risk assessment is a process to determine the nature and extent of risk; analyzing potential hazards and; evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability and capacity

The process of risk assessment is based on:

Both technical features of hazards such as their location, intensity and probability, Analysis of the physical, social and economic dimensions of vulnerability, While taking into account the coping capabilities and resources

Purpose of Risk Assessment; 1. To answer the questions about frequency and severity of potential hazards and

national and community vulnerabilities 2. To identify the hazard to which the area you are assessing is susceptible

(susceptibility) is capacity the same to vulnerability (exposure) 3. To determine the acceptable level of risk in the community based on people’s

perception e.g. earthquake prone areas we observe or we conduct questionnaires, we need to know perception of people about the hazard, they active or passive?

4. To determine the available resources to cope with disaster and hazard (resources can be taken in capacity it will enhance your capacity. Experts and trained are important, their existence is important.

5. To provide alternatives for decision makers in decision making process and in policy formulations e.g. if we want to construct a tunnel.

6. To mobilize and facilitate the resources in the community


Characteristics of Risk Assessment; 1. As a multi hazard process

Based on damaged area e.g. flood will damage less area as compared to earthquake we take different hazards and asses it

2. DRA is multi level process E.g. high, medium, and low risk it depends on your objectives

3. DRA is multi sectoral process Access the risk of different sectors, first focus is on human beings, agricultural

land /area. 4. It’s a multi stakeholder process

(DM who can contribute in different events. E.g. asses drought Agricultural Dep, irrigation Dep, to know about their resources and capacity,

data is taken for metrological Dep to take the data of rainfall NDMA, PDAM, ENGINEERING DEP, construction

5. DRA is a multi phase process (DM cycle have different phases) Identification of risk Planning for the risk Implementation Monitoring and evaluation of the project or risk All above is risk phases

Components of DRA: Four main components of disaster risk assessments which are interrelated to each other:

1. Hazard Assessment or hazard identification To determine the likelihood/ occurrence or chances of any natural or man-made hazard or threat in the community

To determine the root cause of hazard: o flood (heavy rainfall, deforestation, erosion)

To determine the intensifying factor/underline causes. o (moisture in soil, rising o water table, no mitigative measure

Nature and behavior of the hazard o Frequency of occurrence, speed, velocity o Behavior : effects

2. Vulnerability Assessment:

Is the process in which we identify the elements at risk Causes of those elements at risk that why they are vulnerable or at risk Their unsafe condition and root causes as well as underline factors/

intensifying factors of those elements at risk Main cause of vulnerability is poverty in under developing countries

3. Capacity Assessment: In this process we identify the peoples coping strategies, resources available for preparedness, mitigation and emergency response, and who has access to and control over these resources


4. People’s Perception: To identify the perception of local community (we will heterogeneous groups) rich + poor + all types of people interview) and also including different sectors. And then to identify the risk based on people perception, then categorize the risk of the community on the basis of level of risk, nature and behavior of risk and magnitude of risk.

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT DESIGN

We take seven steps in DRAD

Steps Objectives Outcomes

Step# 1

Describe hazard in the community List and nature of hazard

Step#2 Conduct hazard mapping (manual mapping and advance mapping (GIS) we involve community then they make maps

Resources available will identify , elements at risk, digitalize map (with the help of hazard mapping)

Step#3 To describe the social vulnerability and social capacities (to identify human resources)

Relation between man and women between aged people how much is skilled people to identify these

To identify CVA (capacity vulnerability assessment)

Step#4 To determine disaster risk , present with the help of maps, graphs, Venn diagram

To comprehensive list of risks food by community

Step#5 Rank disasters Risk

On the basis of occurrence, exposure, vulnerability, resources available

Prioritize the list of risk

Step#6 Decide on acceptable level of risk Agreed level of risk for family and community

Step#7 Decide the preventive measures, mitigative measure or transfer of risk

To develop strategies, planning in reducing of risk in the community

Steps in Disaster Risk Assessment: The assessment process has four steps

I. Risk Assessment II. Hazard Assessment

III. Vulnerability Assessment IV. Capacity Assessment


Step # 1 RISK ASSESSMENT RISK: Probability or likelihood of something happening in the future, which has negative consequences Something going wrong in future which have negative impact on economy and human/community

Risk= ୌୟୟ୰ୢ ୶ ୳୪୬ୣ୰ୟୠ୧୪୧୲୷େୟ୮ୟୡ୧୲୷

Creation of Risk:

Risk creates between extreme natural event and vulnerable environmental condition

Types of Risk

Acceptable Risk: o The absorption capacity of individual community is acceptable o Those types of risk which is easily absorb by individual, family, community or

nation. E.g. a community poor + rich both lives o Rich income is 50,000 o E.g. flood can make a loss of 2,000 or 15000, its not a big amount for khan but

if this loss happened to a poor it will not absorb the risk Types of Acceptable risk:

o Social acceptance o Cultural acceptance o Economical acceptance o Attitudinal ( on the basis of activities and passiveness) o Psychological acceptance ( depends on individual) o Technically, culturally

Residual Risk: o That types of risk which can’t be reduced or which has no potential solution o Perception of risk varies from person to person o It depends on perception Of person

On the basis of level three types of risk

High risk o Which has the greater impact and negative impacts on community, risk to

infrastructure Medium risk

o When some components of a community are at risk, e.g. Mud houses Low risk

o Most components of community are safe but some components are at risk e.g. flood 2010 people it depends on intensity of risk:

IDENTIFICATION OF RISK

To identify the risk in a community we need two important thing that are; i. To identify elements at risk (are things your community values

which could be exposed to harm) ii. To identify the source of risk ( risks are the hazards that my cause

harm)


Elements at Risk;

Objects, persons, thing which are exposed in a community for a particular hazard e.g. crops, buildings, roads, bridges etc

People Culture and heritage Buildings Infrastructure Equipment Environment Livelihoods Crops and farmland services

Source of Risk:

Are the hazards that may cause harm. There are five source of risk

1. Natural Source: Natural hazards, due to which risk is created e.g. flood, earthquake,

cyclone, typhoon 2. Biological Hazard:

Risk is created due to it. e.g. contaminated water is a risk (for diseases) pandemic and epidemics or water born diseases

Food poisoning, infectious disease 3. Societal Hazard:

Conflicts in a society terrorism Over population

4. Mechanical Hazards: When technology fails, e.g. building collapse, vehicle accidents and

structural fire 5. Technological Hazard :

Leakages of chemical spills Release of toxic gases Explosion

Hazard x vulnerability Risk (Triggers events) Disaster

Information about Risk:

To collect info/data about risk

Sources: 1. Recent History:

a. Research about earthquake (first known about the history of EQ took it by ERRA, for flood

b. Relevant department will give you data about any hazard 2. Libraries

a. Book/Research reports 3. Newspaper 4. Journals


Intensity of Risk: Based/depends on duration of hazard

o Velocity of the hazard frequency of the hazard o Location of the community o Preparedness of the community o Risk will be more where there is high intensity of risk o Those community which have more preparedness risk will be low

Frequency; Frequency and interval directly promotional to risk

Magnitude: If this is more if volume of flood is more dam burst in case of flood volume of water is more are more destructive. Element at risk is different from one place to other

Risk Assessment

Risk assessment defines the types and magnitude of hazards/disastet that may occur. There are three essential components to assessment of risk: i. Hazard Occurance probability: Probability of occurance of a specified environmental hazard at a specified severity level in a specified future time period ii. Elements at Risk: an inventory of those people or things which are exposed to the hazard

iii. Vulnerability: the degree of loss to each element, should a hazard of a given severity occur.

Risk assessment Is the process of data collecting, interpreting and analyzing the information from various resources. In DRM (Disaster Risk Management) the basic thing is risk assessment, we manage when we assess the data or we analyze and then presentation of data (maps, graphs)

For disaster risk management, risk assessment is important.

Levels of the Risk: Frequency of the risk Nature of the risk Intensity of the risk Magnitude of the risk

Why we do Risk Assessment;

To determine the potential hazard of a particular area. Hazards can be identified through, maps, field survey, satellite images, field observation , FGD (focus group discussion), questionnaires, interviews, question transit walk etc

To evaluate consequences and negative impacts Vulnerability basic thing in DM. different from other event or hazard e.g. for flood

muddy house are vulnerable to flood as compared to concrete house social, attitudinal , directly promotional to risk

Capacity; different from other events/hazard individual, household, community and national capacity, inversely proportional resources


Risk identification on community level: or in a particular area

1. Historical records: Of the community (which is most prominent risk.

2. Comparison Of one community to other A (Peshawar) and B(charsadda) community e.g.

comparison is done but on the basis that both community will have the same characteristics

3. Conducting survey: Go to the field conduct survey, observe things personally, observe and

interview of people structural and non structural interviews and conduct questionnaires

4. Site Assessment: GIS modern technology Use topographic sheet to assess site personally due to personal observation site

with the help of maps and technology

Ways of Managing Risk

There are some ways through we can manage risk some of those ways are:

1. Reducing Probability;

To reduce chances, occurrence of risk, how much we reduce risk? i. Change the location (physical location or relocation) ii. Reducing the velocity of any event; velocity of water in case of flood)

2. Reduce potential consequences: To follow building codes incase of Earthquake (impact can reduce) Afforestaion incase of flood Desiltation of channelization Channelization incase of flood (diversion of channels) Reservoirs, (dam construction, embankments)

3. Removing the source of Risk: To eliminate the source of risk;

Reduce deforestation through Afforestaion Global warming by emission of CFC’s

4. Removing element at risk: In case of flood Land use planning, (sugarcane, rice, plantation of these plants)

5. Developing preparedness plan (pre-disaster) Awareness, training, skill, seminars, if communities have all these abilities then risk will reduce

6. Preparing recovery plans Short term recovery (within 5 year recovery) Long term recovery (with 20 year recovery) E.g. in Balakot city shelter provided by Saudi Arabia


Step # 2 HAZARD ASSESSMENT

"The process of studying the nature of hazards determining its essential features (degree of severity, duration, extent of the impact area) and their relationship" "Identify, list down and describe the nature of hazards in terms of its recurrence, seasonality, location, possibility of early warning and general knowledge of the people about the hazard."

Factors to be considered during hazards assessment

1. Root cause of every disaster 2. Where its location and occurrence 3. How often (frequency) 4. How strong (Intensity of event) 5. How long (duration) 6. How fast (Velocity) 7. Warning sign (forewarning/ early warning) 8. Time gap ( interval, lead time or golden time)

Information required for hazard assessment

1. Historical data/reports 2. Scientific studies

a. Maps b. Satellite images

3. Location, duration, factors

Factors to consider in understanding the nature & behavior of hazards

1. Origin: o It creates the hazard. It may be natural or man-made e.g. origin of the flood

(its heavy?) o Rainfall o Dam failure o Deforestation

2. Sign’s and Signals: o To identify any hazard you should known signals, and then you can

understand behavior of hazard. There are important to study the nature and behaviors of hazards

o Two types of Sign and Signals: Scientific:

It includes use of modern technology such as mapping, remote sensing and GIS etc

Indigenous: it includes movement of birds, behavior of animals etc EQ change in the behaviors of animals Behavior of the hazard Change in shape Rainfall duration Quantity of rain, through rain gauge in comes in both Rain gauge it comes in scientific Rain intensity, quantity, temperature, winds, early warning


3. Forewarning: o Time gap between warning signs & the impact of hazard relatively short but

can vary from a few hours to a few days 4. Force

o Factors that make the power of hazards, e.g. intensity and magnitude of flooding

5. Speed of Onset o Rapidity of arrival and impact

6. Frequency o Time related patterns of occurrence of hazards

7. Seasonality o Occurrence of a hazard in a particular time of the year

8. Duration o Hazard's presence in a time scale

TOOLS FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT

There many tools through which we can assess the hazard. Some of these are following

1. Hazard Mapping:

Can be developing in a community through the use of local knowledge and local people by using sticks and finger on the ground (local material beans, stones, mud) through the hazard/potential hazard in the given area

2. Historical Profile:

Can be used to analyze the changes with the passage of time, and to identify which hazards have happened in the past or the start of particular hazard occurance as a secondary effect

3. Seasonal Calendars:

Seasonality is an expected threat where information needed to be obtaining in order to know the people coping strategies, for this purpose the most useful tool is seasonal calendar, which is a particular tool to explore seasonal changes and its impacts on the community life and activities.

Particular place, hazards in a particular month

4. Hazard Matrix:

In which we take one or more than one hazard. A tool through which we can assess, analyses, causes, impacts, frequency, probability etc of any local people or local knowledge


Step # 3 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Vulnerability: Those physical, attitudinal, conditions, which impact community’s ability to cope with disaster:

Definition: it’s a condition or set of conditions that reduce people ability to prepare for mitigate, and respond to the impact of a hazard opposite to capacity. Its important to remember that a large part of vulnerability can be reduced through human capability for prevent or self protection.

Vulnerability is more coping strategies will be more. Its relate to vulnerability assessment Hazard prone: to be threatened

Hazard vulnerable: to be threatened and weak

Categories of Vulnerability/Types

I. Physical / Material Vulnerability

Hazard -prone location of community houses, farmlands, infrastructure, basic services.

Weak Design and construction materials of houses and buildings.

Insecure and risky sources of livelihood.

Lack of access and control over means of production (land, farm inputs, animals, capital).

Dependence on money -lenders. Occurrence of acute or chronic

food shortage.

Over exploitation of natural resources.

Lack of basic services: Education, Health, Safe drinking water, Shelter Sanitation, Roads, electricity, Communication

Exposed to violence (domestic, community conflicts civil conflicts or war)

II. Social / Organizational! Vulnerability 1. Weak family I kinship relations. 2. Lack of leadership and initiative to solve problems or conflicts 3. Exclusion of certain groups from decision -making about Community life or unequal

participation in community affairs 4. Absence or weak community organizations 5. Conflicts: ethnic. class, beliefs, caste, ideology 6. No or neglected relationship with government, administrative structures 7. Isolated from outside world 8. Lack of adequate skills and educational background. 9. High mortality rates, malnutrition, occurrence of diseases.


III. Motivational / Attitudinal Vulnerability

Negative attitude or resistance towards change. Lack of confidence. Passivity, fatalism, hopelessness. Lack of initiative or "fighting spirit". Dependence on external support. Hope lessens

IV. Economical Vulnerability

Economic Vulnerabilities pertain to how people make their living and from where they get their livelihood.

Determining which type of livelihood is easily affected by disasters (e.g. fishing, tricycle driving, etc.) is a key issue to be considered in determining the magnitude of economic vulnerability.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

“A process to identify what elements are at risk per hazard type, and to analyze the root causes of why these elements are at risk” The process of estimating the vulnerability to potential hazards of specified elements at risk.

For engineering purposes, vulnerability assessment involves the analysis of theoretical and empirical data concerning the effect; of particular phenomena on particular types of structures. For more general socio-economic purposes, it involves consideration of all significant easements in society, including physical, social and economic considerations (both short and long term), and the extent to which essential services and traditional and local coping mechanisms are able to continue functioning.

Characteristics of Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability assessment is a crucial aspect of disaster planning and management. We should recognize that vulnerability assessment is complex phenomena. Vulnerability is specific to location, sector, interest group, etc. Vulnerability and poverty are strongly linked. Vulnerability assessment involves first identifying all the elements which may be, at

risk from a particular hazard. Vulnerability implies both susceptibility to physical and economic damage and lack

of resources for rapid recovery. Local knowledge and census data may be used to complete the inventory. To reduce physical vulnerability weak elements may be protected or strengthened. Similarly to reduce the vulnerability of social institutions and economic activities,

infrastructure may need to be modified or strengthened OR institutional arrangements to be modified or strengthened.


Step # 4 CAPACITY ASSESSMENT

Definition: Capacities are the strengths and resources which are present in an individual in households and the community which enable them to prevent, mitigate, prepare for, cope with or quickly recover from a disaster

Even the weakest in the community have some skills, resources and strengths to help themselves and perhaps others

In capacity assessment: Process we identify what are the people coping strategies, which types of resources are available and who as access and control over their resources

Characteristics of Capacity: i. It is specific to hazard ii. Capacities differ among

countries and organizations iii. Capacity change over time iv. Capacity sustain through

ownership and local initiatives

Classification of Capacity: Can be classified as following

i. Physical capacity ii. Social capacity iii. Attitudinal capacity iv. Economic capacity

Triggers for Capacity Development: 1. High impact event (when events

occurs it develops capacity) 2. Frequent events (it can build

individual capacity) 3. Motivated individuals and institution

Level of Capacity: 1. Individual capacity 2. Community capacity 3. National level or government

capacity 4. International capacity

FLOOD ASSESSMENT

Rainfall (if it’s more flood increase) Vegetation covered (some of them are directly related to flood) Slope Topography (relief natural features/ land forms low/ grazing areas will have more

flood) Hilly area is inversely proportional to flood and plane area is directly proportional to

flood. Nature of soil Climatic conditions (humidity, winds direction) Drainage system Geology (permeable, impermeable soil ) compactness Water table Encroachment (cutting and filling of rocks slops decrease channel capacity.


Global Tend in Disaster

Globally there are two types of disaster

i. Small case disaster ii. Large case disaster

When a disaster effect an area of 10° latitude and 10° longitude it sad to be large scale disaster. Whereas it covers less than that scale it is small scale disaster.

The line which are drawn from North Pole to South Pole is called latitude The line which are drawn from East pole to West Pole is called Longitude From equator to East pole is 90° +ve 23 ½ toward the north is tropic of cancer From equator to west pole is 90° -ve 23 ½ toward the south is tropic of Capricorn

The number of disaster is increasing and high death toll is still a characteristic of low develop and low income countries

Some countries are more prone to disasters than other countries WHY?

Poverty Location Resources Weather/ Climate

An average the number of people affected by natural disaster has increased due to the increase in number of disasters

Hydro metrological disaster counted for about 90% of all those reported disaster i.e. flood, tsunami, cyclones, storms

Geo hazard have become worse during recent years and they are common in south and south East Asian countries. When we compare to south East Asia hazards due to the plate boundaries, mountains area/ ranges, landslide, presence of fault lines Continent wise Asia is more disaster effected from 1900 – 2010

2nd number north and South America Africa

Europe

Australia

No of people killed from natural disaster is i. Asia ii. Europe iii. Africa iv. America (North and South) v. Australia


Cause of Global Trend Disaster:

It is estimated that half population of the world never used a telephone ½ population of the world as no access of electric city The average of a family house world wise is only about 1 thousand 360 wealthiest man and women control half of the world monitory resources In the decade of 1993 to 2002 there was a global annual average of 540 recorded

disasters due to natural and technological hazards killing 62 thousand people and effecting 250 million each year.

The greatest number of immediate deaths in disaster was attributed to drought/ famine followed by flood, wind storm and earthquake

According to UNDP research/ study 11 % of those people expose to natural hazard lived in countries with low human development. They account for 53% of disaster death.

In 2004 the world bank estimated annual cost of the world natural disaster as 55 billion dollars cost

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Disaster Risk Managment Midterm