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Diversifying Tasmania’s Economy: Analysis and Options FINAL REPORT - Revised October 2012 Jonathan West, Anthony Arundel, David Adams, Dominique Bowen Butchart, Kieran O’Brien, Sarah Gatenby, Eugene Polkan, Richard Smart, Lisa Taylor and Ann Torugsa

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Page 1: Diversifying Tasmanias Economy - World-class study ... · Diversifying Tasmanias Economy: Analysis and Options ... 3.3 Case Studies ... 11.13.1 A new Wine Industry Development Authority

Diversifying Tasmania’s Economy:

Analysis and Options

FINAL REPORT - Revised

October 2012

Jonathan West, Anthony Arundel, David Adams, Dominique

Bowen Butchart, Kieran O’Brien, Sarah Gatenby, Eugene

Polkan, Richard Smart, Lisa Taylor and Ann Torugsa

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Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................... ii

LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................... xi

LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... xix

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................xxiv

1 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS: THE ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION TASK IN

TASMANIA ........................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 The role of forestry in Tasmania’s economy ..................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Defining the challenge ....................................................................................................................................... 2

1.3 Importance of the traded private sector ........................................................................................................... 2

1.4 Reinforce comparative advantage ..................................................................................................................... 3

1.5 Focus the essence of effective strategy ............................................................................................................. 5

1.6 Results: Sectors of opportunity ......................................................................................................................... 5

1.6.1 Wine ........................................................................................................................................................... 5

1.6.2 Dairy ........................................................................................................................................................... 6

1.6.3 Horticulture ................................................................................................................................................ 8

1.6.4 Aquaculture ............................................................................................................................................... 8

1.6.5 Forestry and wood products ...................................................................................................................... 9

1.7 Characteristics of Tasmania’s high-potential sectors ........................................................................................ 9

1.8 Recommendations: Unlocking Tasmania's economic potential ...................................................................... 12

1.9 Recommendation: Financial support ............................................................................................................... 19

1.10 Economic diversification for Tasmania: Employment estimates ................................................................... 21

1.10.1 Multipliers for target sectors ................................................................................................................. 24

2 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 26

3 REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CLUSTERS .................................................. 30

3.1 Role of the community: two examples from Tasmania ................................................................................... 31

3.2 Regional economic development policies in developed countries ................................................................. 33

3.2.1 Australia ................................................................................................................................................... 33

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3.2.2 Canada ..................................................................................................................................................... 34

3.2.3 United States............................................................................................................................................ 35

3.2.4 European Union ....................................................................................................................................... 35

3.3 Case Studies ..................................................................................................................................................... 39

3.3.1 Pennsylvannia, USA .................................................................................................................................. 40

3.3.2 Schleswig-Holstein, Germany .................................................................................................................. 41

3.3.3 Styria, Austria ........................................................................................................................................... 42

3.4 Examples of forestry support measures from the EU...................................................................................... 44

3.4.1 Sweden .................................................................................................................................................... 44

3.4.2 Austria ...................................................................................................................................................... 44

3.4.3 France ...................................................................................................................................................... 45

3.4.4 Other countries ........................................................................................................................................ 45

3.5 Diversification from forestry ............................................................................................................................ 45

3.5.1 Sweden .................................................................................................................................................... 45

3.5.2 Spain ........................................................................................................................................................ 46

3.6 Not successful/not recommended .................................................................................................................. 46

3.7 Conclusions to examples ................................................................................................................................. 47

3.8 Clusters and agglomeration effects ................................................................................................................. 47

4 THE IMPACT OF CHANGES TO NATIVE FORESTRY ON TASMANIAN COMMUNITIES ......... 51

4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 51

4.2 Economics of Forestry in Tasmania ................................................................................................................. 51

4.2.1 Employment trends in forestry ................................................................................................................ 54

4.2.2 Effects of the TFIGA on wood supply ....................................................................................................... 57

4.2.3 Estimated effects of the TFIGA on economic output and employment .................................................. 60

4.2.4 Alternative employment for forestry workers ......................................................................................... 61

4.3 Most affected communities from declines in native forestry ......................................................................... 65

5 OPPORTUNITIES FOR ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ...................................................... 69

5.1 Sectors of interest ............................................................................................................................................ 70

5.2 Identifying sector characteristics ..................................................................................................................... 73

5.3 Sector performance profiles ............................................................................................................................ 79

5.4 Regional profiles .............................................................................................................................................. 84

5.4.1 Sub-region data for employment............................................................................................................. 84

5.4.2 Regional data for TIC indicators ............................................................................................................... 85

5.5 Key growth sectors .......................................................................................................................................... 90

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5.5.1 Forestry and wood products .................................................................................................................... 90

5.5.2 Dairy ......................................................................................................................................................... 91

5.5.3 Wine ......................................................................................................................................................... 92

5.5.4 Horticulture .............................................................................................................................................. 92

5.5.5 Greenhouse Crops ................................................................................................................................... 93

5.5.6 Aquaculture ............................................................................................................................................. 93

5.5.7 Applications of the NBN ........................................................................................................................... 94

5.5.8 Light manufacturing ................................................................................................................................. 94

5.5.9 Tourism .................................................................................................................................................... 95

5.5.10 Mining .................................................................................................................................................... 95

5.5.11 Mineral Processing ................................................................................................................................. 96

5.6 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................................... 96

6 DEMOGRAPHIC, EMPLOYMENT, AND SKILL CHALLENGES FOR TASMANIA ..................... 98

6.1 Demographics .................................................................................................................................................. 99

6.1.1 Population and age distribution .............................................................................................................. 99

6.1.2 Factors driving population change in Tasmania .................................................................................... 102

6.1.3 Projections of future population in Tasmania ....................................................................................... 105

6.1.4 Future age structure of Tasmania .......................................................................................................... 107

6.2 Employment .................................................................................................................................................. 110

6.2.1 Dependency and labour market entry exit ratios .................................................................................. 110

6.2.2 Unemployment and labour force participation rates ............................................................................ 111

6.2.3 Labour force engagement and spare capacity ....................................................................................... 115

6.2.4 Summary of labour supply indicators for target LGAs ........................................................................... 118

6.3 Labour Force Skills ......................................................................................................................................... 123

6.3.1 Summary of labour force skills for target LGAs ..................................................................................... 125

6.4 Socio-economic conditions in the target LGAs .............................................................................................. 128

6.4.1 Wages .................................................................................................................................................... 131

6.4.2 Poverty ................................................................................................................................................... 131

6.5 Dependence on the Tasmanian Public sector ............................................................................................... 132

6.5.1 Gross State Product ............................................................................................................................... 132

6.5.2 Public sector employment ..................................................................................................................... 133

6.5.3 Dependence on the public sector .......................................................................................................... 135

7 ASSETS AND LIABILITIES IN TASMANIA AND THE TARGET LGAS ................................... 137

7.1 Constructed Assets ........................................................................................................................................ 138

7.1.1 Regulations ............................................................................................................................................ 138

7.1.2 Subdivision of agricultural land .............................................................................................................. 139

7.1.3 Diversification of forestry land .............................................................................................................. 142

7.1.4 Tasmanian Irrigation Development Board and Tasmanian Irrigation .................................................... 150

7.1.5 Policy initiatives to support economic development............................................................................. 152

7.2 Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................................. 158

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7.2.1 Roads and transport .............................................................................................................................. 158

7.2.2 Bass Strait Freight .................................................................................................................................. 159

7.2.3 Hospitals and GPs .................................................................................................................................. 161

7.2.4 Schools ................................................................................................................................................... 165

7.2.5 Internet Connection and the NBN Roll Out ........................................................................................... 166

7.2.6 Business structure .................................................................................................................................. 167

7.3 Natural Resources .......................................................................................................................................... 169

7.3.1 Soils ........................................................................................................................................................ 169

7.3.2 Climate ................................................................................................................................................... 173

7.3.3 Land capability ....................................................................................................................................... 180

7.3.4 Land use ................................................................................................................................................. 182

7.3.5 Mineral Resources ................................................................................................................................. 183

7.4 Summaries of assets and liabilities for the target LGAs ................................................................................ 184

7.4.1 Burnie ..................................................................................................................................................... 184

7.4.2 Central Highlands ................................................................................................................................... 184

7.4.3 Circular Head .......................................................................................................................................... 185

7.4.4 Dorset .................................................................................................................................................... 186

7.4.5 Glamorgan/Spring Bay ........................................................................................................................... 186

7.4.6 Huon Valley ............................................................................................................................................ 187

7.4.7 Kentish ................................................................................................................................................... 188

7.4.8 Meander Valley ...................................................................................................................................... 188

7.4.9 Northern Midlands................................................................................................................................. 189

7.4.10 Sorell .................................................................................................................................................... 190

7.4.11 Southern Midlands ............................................................................................................................... 190

7.4.12 Tasman ................................................................................................................................................. 191

7.4.13 Waratah/Wynyard ............................................................................................................................... 192

8 FORESTRY-BASED ALTERNATIVES TO NATIVE FORESTRY .............................................. 193

8.1 Current status of Tasmanian forestry ............................................................................................................ 194

8.1.1 Intake and production ........................................................................................................................... 195

8.1.2 Hardwood for sawlog production .......................................................................................................... 197

8.1.3 Plantations ............................................................................................................................................. 198

8.1.4 Pulpwood mills and sawmills ................................................................................................................. 202

8.1.5 Sawmill upgrades ................................................................................................................................... 204

8.1.6 Domestic and foreign markets for wood products ................................................................................ 205

8.2 Future Alternatives to Native Forestry .......................................................................................................... 216

8.2.1 Increasing reliance on plantations ......................................................................................................... 216

8.2.2 Improving mill recovery rates ................................................................................................................ 223

8.3 New markets for woodchips and wood waste .............................................................................................. 233

8.3.1 Particle board ......................................................................................................................................... 234

8.3.2 Opportunities under the Clean Energy Plan .......................................................................................... 235

8.3.3 The Voluntary Carbon Market ............................................................................................................... 235

8.3.4 The Carbon Price Mechanism ................................................................................................................ 236

8.3.5 Clean Energy Future Programs .............................................................................................................. 236

8.3.6 The Carbon Farming Initiative ................................................................................................................ 236

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8.3.7 The Carbon Value of Plantations ........................................................................................................... 239

8.3.8 Carbon Farming in the Tasmanian Landscape ....................................................................................... 240

8.3.9 Biochar ................................................................................................................................................... 243

9 RENEWABLE ELECTRICAL ENERGY ............................................................................... 246

9.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 246

9.2 The Renewable Energy Sector in Tasmania ................................................................................................... 247

9.3 Electrical Generation Capacity in Tasmania................................................................................................... 250

9.4 Electricity Exports to Mainland Australia....................................................................................................... 253

9.5 Tasmanian and Australian Markets for Electricity ......................................................................................... 255

9.5.1 Brief introduction to electricity markets in general ............................................................................... 255

9.5.2 National Electricity Market .................................................................................................................... 256

9.5.3 Electricity Pricing .................................................................................................................................... 256

9.5.4 Electricity pricing under the Carbon Price Mechanism .......................................................................... 258

9.5.5 Reliability ............................................................................................................................................... 259

9.5.6 Transmission and distribution................................................................................................................ 260

9.6 Cost of Renewable Electrical Energy Technologies ....................................................................................... 260

9.7 Options for Biofuels in Tasmania ................................................................................................................... 264

9.8 Investment in Renewable Energy .................................................................................................................. 265

9.8.1 Planned and in Progress Renewable Energy Projects in Tasmania ........................................................ 268

9.8.2 Resource Information ............................................................................................................................ 271

9.9 Industry Assistance ........................................................................................................................................ 272

9.10 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 274

10 DAIRY ...................................................................................................................... 277

10.1 Summary: Growth Potential for Tasmania’s Dairy Sector .......................................................................... 277

Determinants of Profitability and Return: The Dairy Value Chain ...................................................... 278 10.1.1

Opportunities for Expansion and Innovation ...................................................................................... 281 10.1.2

Options for Policy ................................................................................................................................ 283 10.1.3

Increase milk volume .......................................................................................................................... 283 10.1.4

Irrigation ............................................................................................................................................. 283 10.1.5

Land conversion .................................................................................................................................. 284 10.1.6

On-farm practice improvement .......................................................................................................... 284 10.1.7

Encourage locally owned processing and value-added ...................................................................... 285 10.1.8

10.2 Background Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 286

10.3 Production .................................................................................................................................................. 287

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10.4 Producers .................................................................................................................................................... 291

Growing ............................................................................................................................................... 291 10.4.1

Processing ........................................................................................................................................... 291 10.4.2

Specialised Dairy ................................................................................................................................. 292 10.4.3

Employment: ....................................................................................................................................... 292 10.4.4

Markets ............................................................................................................................................... 292 10.4.5

Revenues ............................................................................................................................................. 293 10.4.6

Investment .......................................................................................................................................... 293 10.4.7

Tamar Valley Dairy .............................................................................................................................. 294 10.4.8

Capacity............................................................................................................................................... 294 10.4.9

Competition ...................................................................................................................................... 294 10.4.10

Key roles for Government ................................................................................................................. 295 10.4.11

10.5 Market trends ............................................................................................................................................. 296

Market situation ................................................................................................................................. 296 10.5.1

Exchange rates .................................................................................................................................... 296 10.5.2

Prices ................................................................................................................................................... 300 10.5.3

Production .......................................................................................................................................... 304 10.5.4

Consumption ....................................................................................................................................... 308 10.5.5

Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 308 10.5.6

10.6 Commodities ............................................................................................................................................... 309

Butter .................................................................................................................................................. 309 10.6.1

Cheese ................................................................................................................................................. 313 10.6.2

Skim Milk Powder (SMP) ..................................................................................................................... 316 10.6.3

Whole Milk Powder (WMP) ................................................................................................................ 319 10.6.4

11 WINE ....................................................................................................................... 322

11.1 Executive summary ..................................................................................................................................... 322

11.2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 323

11.3 Tasmania, the ‘lucky’ state for wine ........................................................................................................... 324

Features of Viticulture in Tasmania .................................................................................................... 324 11.3.1

Wine industry clusters ........................................................................................................................ 327 11.3.2

The Tasmanian “terroir”, a study of physical resources ..................................................................... 328 11.3.3

Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 329 11.3.4

Water availability ................................................................................................................................ 343 11.3.5

11.4 A review of Tasmanian wine regions .......................................................................................................... 345

The formalisation of wine region “Tasmania” .................................................................................... 345 11.4.1

A study of the present size of Tasmania’s wine sector, is it small or very small, and maybe too small?11.4.2

....................................................................................................................................................................... 347

Some experiences of farm land conversion to vineyards in Tasmania ............................................... 350 11.4.3

11.5 The Growth of Wine Regions, including Tasmania ..................................................................................... 351

A brief history of the development of New Zealand wine regions. .................................................... 351 11.5.1

Is there a critical production level for new wine regions in order to grow quickly? .......................... 353 11.5.2

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11.6 Is Tasmania a significant Pinot Noir producer in Australia? ....................................................................... 357

11.7 The economics of grape and wine production in Tasmania ....................................................................... 358

11.8 The Market for Tasmanian wines ............................................................................................................... 359

The present situation .......................................................................................................................... 359 11.8.1

The Overseas Export Market .............................................................................................................. 359 11.8.2

Can Tasmanian wines cause import substitution? ............................................................................. 360 11.8.3

Prospects for increasing wine sales within Tasmania ......................................................................... 361 11.8.4

Prospects for Increasing Market Share of Tasmanian Wine, the Lockshin study. .............................. 364 11.8.5

Prospects for marketing Tasmanian wine, the Henderson-Baldwin study. ........................................ 365 11.8.6

11.9 Local producer perceptions of Tasmania’s wine ........................................................................................ 367

11.10 Study of implications of growth of the Tasmanian wine sector ............................................................... 370

Economic ........................................................................................................................................... 370 11.10.1

Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 371 11.10.2

Regional development ...................................................................................................................... 371 11.10.3

Tourism ............................................................................................................................................. 372 11.10.4

Other ................................................................................................................................................. 372 11.10.5

11.11 Study of Government supporting services ............................................................................................... 372

Education and training ...................................................................................................................... 373 11.11.1

Research............................................................................................................................................ 374 11.11.2

Support and promotion .................................................................................................................... 374 11.11.3

11.12 Constraints to the expansion of the Tasmanian wine sector ................................................................... 374

What do existing producers think? ................................................................................................... 374 11.12.1

Does local Government encourage wine sector expansion? ............................................................ 377 11.12.2

Are there capital constraints to growth? .......................................................................................... 377 11.12.3

What might be the needs of an expanded wine sector for sustainability? ...................................... 379 11.12.4

What is a possible industry development trajectory? ...................................................................... 380 11.12.5

11.13 How might Governments assist growth? ................................................................................................. 380

A new Wine Industry Development Authority .................................................................................. 380 11.13.1

Government support ........................................................................................................................ 381 11.13.2

How might new investors be attracted? ........................................................................................... 383 11.13.3

11.14 Cider.......................................................................................................................................................... 384

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 384 11.14.1

Opportunities for import substitution .............................................................................................. 386 11.14.2

Export opportunities ......................................................................................................................... 388 11.14.3

12 HORTICULTURE ........................................................................................................ 392

12.1 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 392

Options for policy ................................................................................................................................ 395 12.1.1

Summary of horticulture sectors ........................................................................................................ 395 12.1.2

12.2 The Australian horticulture sector and its competitiveness ....................................................................... 399

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12.3 Fruit ............................................................................................................................................................ 404

Production .......................................................................................................................................... 405 12.3.1

Processing ........................................................................................................................................... 406 12.3.2

Employment and markets ................................................................................................................... 407 12.3.3

Investment .......................................................................................................................................... 407 12.3.4

Limitations and competition ............................................................................................................... 408 12.3.5

Global and domestic market trends for fruit ...................................................................................... 409 12.3.6

Fruit Growing in New Zealand ............................................................................................................ 416 12.3.7

12.4 Nuts ............................................................................................................................................................ 419

Production ......................................................................................................................................... 421 12.4.1

Processing ........................................................................................................................................... 421 12.4.2

Markets ............................................................................................................................................... 422 12.4.3

12.4.4 Investment .......................................................................................................................................... 422

12.4.5 Limitations and Competition .............................................................................................................. 422

12.4.6 Role of Government ............................................................................................................................ 424

Market trends ..................................................................................................................................... 424 12.4.7

12.5 Vegetables .................................................................................................................................................. 429

Producers ............................................................................................................................................ 430 12.5.1

Production .......................................................................................................................................... 430 12.5.2

Market trends ..................................................................................................................................... 434 12.5.3

12.6 Cut flowers .................................................................................................................................................. 441

Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 441 12.6.1

Tasmania ............................................................................................................................................. 442 12.6.2

Market trends ..................................................................................................................................... 444 12.6.3

13 AQUACULTURE ........................................................................................................ 448

13.1 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 448

Challenges and opportunities ............................................................................................................. 449 13.1.1

13.2 Industry overview ....................................................................................................................................... 450

Producers ............................................................................................................................................ 459 13.2.1

Production .......................................................................................................................................... 459 13.2.2

Markets (exports) ............................................................................................................................... 460 13.2.3

Investment .......................................................................................................................................... 460 13.2.4

13.3 Opportunities and challenges ..................................................................................................................... 460

Regulation ........................................................................................................................................... 461 13.3.1

Tasmanian development .................................................................................................................... 463 13.3.2

Competition ........................................................................................................................................ 463 13.3.3

Government ........................................................................................................................................ 464 13.3.4

13.4 Market trends ............................................................................................................................................. 465

14 TOURISM ................................................................................................................. 477

14.1 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 477

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Challenges ........................................................................................................................................... 479 14.1.1

Options for policy ................................................................................................................................ 480 14.1.2

14.2 Structure of Tasmanian tourism ................................................................................................................. 481

Short break tourism ............................................................................................................................ 482 14.2.1

Accommodation infrastructure .......................................................................................................... 483 14.2.2

14.3 Characteristics of tourists to Tasmania ...................................................................................................... 485

Details on tourist expenditures .......................................................................................................... 487 14.3.1

Origin of interstate visitors ................................................................................................................. 488 14.3.2

International visitors by source region ............................................................................................... 491 14.3.3

Reason to visit ..................................................................................................................................... 493 14.3.4

Age of visitors ..................................................................................................................................... 495 14.3.5

Effect of exchange rates on international and interstate visitors ....................................................... 497 14.3.6

15 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 500

APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 520

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List of Figures

Figure 4.1 Tasmanian Export Volume and Australian Export Unit Price of Broadleaved Woodchips ................... 54

Figure 4.2 Estimated forestry sector employment by region: 1996 - 2011 ........................................................... 56

Figure 4.3 Average employment risk by LGA from a decline in forestry ............................................................... 68

Figure 5.1 Correlation between the ABS and revised definitions of the tourism sector ....................................... 72

Figure 6.1 Population distribution by age for Tasmania and regions, 2006 ........................................................ 100

Figure 6.2 Australian population distribution by age, 2006 ................................................................................ 100

Figure 6.3 Tasmanian population distribution by age for 1996, 2001 and 2006 ................................................. 101

Figure 6.4 Tasmanian population distribution by age for target LGAs, 2006 ...................................................... 101

Figure 6.5 Population distribution by age for Hobart and Launceston, 2006 ..................................................... 102

Figure 6.6 Population components by year, Tasmania: June 1981 to June 2011 ................................................ 103

Figure 6.7 Net Interstate Migration by age group, Tasmania: 1996/97 to 2010/11 ........................................... 103

Figure 6.8 Observed and Projected Population of Tasmania .............................................................................. 106

Figure 6.9 Population Age Structure, Tasmania, 2011 – Actual, 2016 and 2012 ................................................. 108

Figure 6.10 Population Age Structure by Regions of Tasmania, 2010 ................................................................. 110

Figure 6.11 Labour Force Participation Rates (LFPR) and Unemployment Rates - Tasmania ............................. 112

Figure 6.12 Labour Force Participation Rates – Australia and Tasmania: 1978 to February 2012 ...................... 113

Figure 6.13 Labour Force Participation Rates by sex – Tasmania: 1978 to February 2012 ................................. 113

Figure 6.14 Labour Force Participation Rates – Southern Tasmania: 2007 to February 2012 ............................ 114

Figure 6.15 Labour Force Participation Rates –Northern Tasmania: 2007 to February 2012 ............................. 114

Figure 6.16 Labour Force Participation Rates –Mersey-Lyell: 2007 to February 2012 ........................................ 114

Figure 6.17 Percent Labour Force Engagement for Men by Age –Tasmania: Feb 2012 ...................................... 115

Figure 6.18 Percent Labour Force Engagement for Women by Age –Tasmania: Feb 2012 ................................ 116

Figure 6.19 Underemployment (employed but willing to work longer hours) by gender-Tasmania:1978-2011.117

Figure 6.20 Labour Force Underutilisation (underemployed and unemployed) by gender – Tasmania: 1978 -

2011 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 117

Figure 6.21 Proportion of Population with Formal Qualifications: May 2011 .................................................... 123

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Figure 6.22 Level of Educational Attainment for persons aged 15 – 64 by gender, Tasmania: May 2011.......... 124

Figure 6.23 Population Age Structure – Bachelor Degree or Higher, Tasmania: 2006 ........................................ 125

Figure 6.24 Average annual wages, 2008/09....................................................................................................... 131

Figure 6.25 Share of “Government” in Tasmania’s GSP and Australia’s GDP ...................................................... 133

Figure 6.26 Share of the state government employment (both part time and full time) in the labour force and

population by states for Australia and the US ..................................................................................................... 136

Figure 7.1 Minimum lot sizes for rural zones ...................................................................................................... 143

Figure 7.2 Highways in Tasmania......................................................................................................................... 159

Figure 7.3 Proportion of population that accessed the internet in the previous 12 months .............................. 166

Figure 7.4 NBN Roll out map for 2012 ................................................................................................................. 167

Figure 7.5 Businesses with more than five FTE for each region, 2010 ................................................................ 168

Figure 7.6 Businesses with more than five FTE for each target LGA, 2010 ......................................................... 168

Figure 7.7 Average FTE per business for business with five or more FTE, 2010 .................................................. 169

Figure 7.8 Average annual rainfall for Tasmania ................................................................................................. 174

Figure 7.9 Average annual evaporation for Tasmania ........................................................................................ 174

Figure 7.10 Irrigation development schemes ...................................................................................................... 176

Figure 7.11 Annual mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for Tasmania .............................................. 177

Figure 7.12 Annual potential frost days for Tasmania ......................................................................................... 179

Figure 7.13 Potential frost days for October ....................................................................................................... 180

Figure 7.14 Proportion of different land uses in Tasmania ................................................................................. 182

Figure 8.1 Distribution of land parcels coded Production Forestry across Tasmania ......................................... 195

Figure 8.2 30-Year View of High Quality Eucalypt Sawlog Supply from Forestry Tasmania ................................ 198

Figure 8.3 Distribution of land parcels coded Plantation Forestry across Tasmania ........................................... 199

Figure 8.4 Hardwood sawn timber production and consumption ...................................................................... 206

Figure 8.5 Domestic price index for selected hardwood structural products ..................................................... 207

Figure 8.6 Australian Production and Consumption of Wood Products .............................................................. 208

Figure 8.7 Tasmanian Timber (Sawnwood) Production, Export and Export Value .............................................. 209

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Figure 8.8 Australian Exports of Wood Products to Selected Regions (2006/07-2010/11 Average) .................. 210

Figure 8.9 Australian and Tasmanian share of world wood chip and particles exports ...................................... 212

Figure 8.10 Total woodchips exported from Australia to selected countries ..................................................... 213

Figure 8.11 Tasmanian Export Volume and Australian Export Unit Price (AUD) of Hardwood Woodchips ........ 214

Figure 8.12 Volume and source of hardwood log imports by China ................................................................... 215

Figure 8.13 Tasmanian Roundwood Export Volume and Value .......................................................................... 216

Figure 8.14 Figurative description of quarter-sawing and back-sawing strategies ............................................. 227

Figure 8.15 Wood panel production worldwide .................................................................................................. 234

Figure 8.16 ACCUs from Kyoto and non-Kyoto Activities and Trade Markets ..................................................... 238

Figure 9.1 Electricity transmitted by source of generation from 2005/06 through to 2010/11 ......................... 248

Figure 9.2 Total Tasmanian Winter Demand Forecast ........................................................................................ 251

Figure 9.3 Projected capacity excess ................................................................................................................... 252

Figure 9.4 Average Basslink flows from Sunday to Saturday over a typical summer and winter week .............. 253

Figure 9.5 Energy Technology Costs (2015) ......................................................................................................... 261

Figure 9.6 Estimated Energy Technology Costs (2030) ........................................................................................ 262

Figure 9.7 Government Renewable Energy RD&D Budgets (Million USD prices and PPP), OECD, 2010 ......... 266

Figure 9.8 Australian Government 2010 Renewable Energy RD&D Budget (Million USD prices and PPP) ......... 267

Figure 10.1 Fodder Costs by Region, Australia ................................................................................................... 278

Figure 10.2 Milk Production Costs per Kilogram of Solids .................................................................................. 279

Figure 10.3 Production of whole milk in Tasmania ............................................................................................ 288

Figure 10.4 Number of dairy cows in Tasmania ................................................................................................. 288

Figure 10.5 Distribution of land parcels coded dairy across Tasmania .............................................................. 289

Figure 10.6 Dairy entity clusters ......................................................................................................................... 290

Figure 10.7 Exchange rates with some of Australia’s trading partners as units of foreign currency per Australian

dollar ................................................................................................................................................................... 297

Figure 10.8 Global per capita production and consumption annual growth rates of dairy products till 2020 .. 299

Figure 10.9 Australian, New Zealand and global projected annual production growth rates of dairy products

from 2011-20 ...................................................................................................................................................... 300

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Figure 10.10 Dairy products world prices (USD/t) .............................................................................................. 301

Figure 10.11 World butter prices in nominal and real terms (2005 USD) .......................................................... 302

Figure 10.12 World SMP prices in nominal and real terms (2005 USD) ............................................................. 302

Figure 10.13 World WMP prices in nominal and real terms (2005 USD) ........................................................... 303

Figure 10.14 World cheese prices in nominal and real terms (2005 USD) ......................................................... 303

Figure 10.15 Global production of dairy products (million tonnes) ................................................................... 304

Figure 10.16 Top 10 producers of whole milk powder, average 2008-10, Kt ..................................................... 305

Figure 10.17 Top 10 producers of butter, average 2008-10, Kt ......................................................................... 306

Figure 10.18 Top 10 producers of skim milk powder, average 2008-10, Kt ....................................................... 307

Figure 10.19 Top 10 producers of cheese, average 2008-10, Kt ........................................................................ 307

Figure 10.20 Production, consumption and world price (nominal) of butter .................................................... 310

Figure 10.21 Butter exporters (Kt) ...................................................................................................................... 311

Figure 10.22 Butter importers (Kt) ..................................................................................................................... 311

Figure 10.23 Production, consumption and world price (nominal) of cheese ................................................... 313

Figure 10.24 Cheese exporters (Kt) .................................................................................................................... 314

Figure 10.25 Cheese importers (Kt) .................................................................................................................... 314

Figure 10.26 Production, consumption and world price (nominal) of skim milk powder .................................. 316

Figure 10.27 SMP exporters (Kt) ........................................................................................................................ 317

Figure 10.28 SMP importers (Kt) ........................................................................................................................ 317

Figure 10.29 Production, consumption and world price (nominal) of whole milk powder ................................ 319

Figure 10.30 Exporters of WMP (Kt) ................................................................................................................... 320

Figure 10.31 Importers of WMP (Kt) .................................................................................................................. 320

Figure 11.1 Wine entity clusters (indicative) ...................................................................................................... 328

Figure 11.2 A colour coded summer temperature map of Tasmania, which shows for each location in the state

which other country has the most similar temperatures. Most of Tasmania is like New Zealand (coloured green)

from a summer temperature viewpoint. ............................................................................................................ 330

Figure 11.3 Maps of Tasmania overlaid on New Zealand, correct for size and latitude, with the same projection.

Launceston (41° 26’ downtown) “sits” on Blenheim (41° 30’ downtown) in Marlborough. .............................. 330

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Figure 11.4 A comparison of vineyard area for mainland Australia, New Zealand and Tasmania plotted against

the heat index Mean January Temperature °C. .................................................................................................. 333

Figure 11.5 A comparison of the vineyard area in New Zealand and Tasmania classified by Mean January

Temperature. ...................................................................................................................................................... 333

Figure 11.6 Annual rainfall in Tasmania. The shaded grey area is deemed unsuitable for viticulture because of

too high rainfall and or low temperatures. ........................................................................................................ 335

Figure 11.7 Growing Degree Days in Tasmania¬. The shaded grey area is deemed unsuitable for viticulture

because of too high rainfall and or low temperatures. ...................................................................................... 337

Figure 11.8 Frost severity for viticulture in Tasmania for October, estimated as days per month less than 0 °C.

The shaded grey area is deemed unsuitable for viticulture because of too high rainfall and or low temperatures.

............................................................................................................................................................................ 338

Figure 11.9 Map of Tasmania showing regions for which soil surveys are available in the CSIRO series 1940-

1967, see the text for details. ............................................................................................................................. 341

Figure 11.10 A geological map of Tasmania with vineyard regions overlaid. ..................................................... 342

Figure 11.11 The location and names of proposed irrigation schemes, Tasmania ............................................ 343

Figure 11.12 Wine regions as at February 2012. ................................................................................................ 345

Figure 11.13 A map of the vineyard areas of Tasmania, as of March 2012........................................................ 347

Figure 11.14 The development of the Tasmanian wine sector, by bearing area and production, from 1986, and

1994 to 2011 ....................................................................................................................................................... 348

Figure 11.15 The development of bearing vineyard area for Marlborough. The arrows mark beginning and end

of growth stages discussed in the text. .............................................................................................................. 354

Figure 11.16 Increase in bearing area, Margaret River 1993 to 2008 ................................................................ 355

Figure 11.17 The relationship between increase in bearing area, 2001 to 2008, and 2001 bearing area for 45

Australian GI’s of 5,000 hectares or less in 2001 ................................................................................................ 356

Figure 11.18 The relationship between increase in bearing area, 2001 to 2008, and 2001 for 6 classes of 2001

bearing area, and Tasmania ............................................................................................................................... 356

Figure 11.19 Number of Pinot Noir by-the bottle listings and average price per region. .................................. 367

Figure 11.20 A comparison of Australian and New Zealand wine exports to the UK, by volume, taken from

Smart (2011b). .................................................................................................................................................... 376

Figure 11.21 Cider imports to Australia ($US) .................................................................................................... 386

Figure 11.22 UK cider exports to Australia (£) .................................................................................................... 387

Figure 11.23 Australian exports of cider to the world ($US) .............................................................................. 389

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Figure 11.24 Japan’s imports of cider from Australia, France and the UK ($US) ................................................ 389

Figure 11.25 Hong Kong’s imports of cider from Australia, France and the UK ($US) ....................................... 390

Figure 11.26 Value per litre of Japan’s imports of cider from Australia, France and the UK (USD) ................... 390

Figure 12.1 Distribution of land parcels coded Irrigated Perennial Horticulture across Tasmania .................... 399

Figure 12.2 Net exports and exchange rate........................................................................................................ 400

Figure 12.3 New Zealand and Chile growth rates, 2000 to 2010/11 (as stated) ................................................ 410

Figure 12.4 Key walnut (with shell) importers and exporters (tonnes) .............................................................. 426

Figure 12.5 World production of chestnuts, hazelnuts and walnuts (tonnes) ................................................... 427

Figure 12.6 Prices of Chestnuts, hazelnuts and walnuts over time .................................................................... 428

Figure 12.7 Producer prices for chestnuts, hazelnuts and walnuts over time ($US/Ha) .................................... 429

Figure 12.8 Netherlands cut flower production, 2001 to 2010 .......................................................................... 447

Figure 13.1 Aquaculture production in Tasmania. ............................................................................................. 451

Figure 13.2 Aquaculture entity clusters .............................................................................................................. 452

Figure 13.3 Gross value of aquaculture fisheries production – Australia (excluding Tasmania) and Tasmania

($’000)................................................................................................................................................................. 457

Figure 13.4 Aquaculture as a component of total fisheries production in Tasmania (tonnes) ......................... 458

Figure 13.5 Salmonid aquaculture production in Tasmania (tonnes) ................................................................ 458

Figure 13.6 Oyster, mussel and abalone aquaculture production in Tasmania (tonnes) ................................... 459

Figure 13.7 Broad regulatory framework for aquaculture ................................................................................. 461

Figure 13.8 Global aquaculture and wild catch, fish only (tonnes) .................................................................... 465

Figure 13.9 Percentage change in global aquaculture production ..................................................................... 466

Figure 13.10 Top aquaculture producers excluding China ranked by 2009 production (tonnes) ...................... 467

Figure 13.11 China’s aquaculture production .................................................................................................... 467

Figure 13.12 Global production of Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout from aquaculture (tonnes) .................. 468

Figure 13.13 Global production quantity and value of Atlantic salmon from aquaculture ................................ 469

Figure 13.14 Tasmania’s production quantity and value of salmonids from aquaculture ................................. 469

Figure 13.15 Global production quantity and value of rainbow trout from aquaculture .................................. 470

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Figure 13.16 Top aquaculture producers of Atlantic salmon (tonnes) ............................................................... 470

Figure 13.17 Top aquaculture producers of rainbow trout and Australia (tonnes) ........................................... 471

Figure 13.18 Global production quantity and value of abalone from aquaculture ............................................ 471

Figure 13.19 Tasmania’s production quantity and value of abalone from aquaculture .................................... 472

Figure 13.20 Aquaculture producers of abalone ................................................................................................ 472

Figure 13.21 Freshwater fish global supply and per capita food supply ............................................................ 474

Figure 13.22 Peso USD exchange rate ................................................................................................................ 476

Figure 14.1 Share of tourism employment by ANZSIC industry division for Tasmania and Australia, direct

contribution, 2007/08 ........................................................................................................................................ 482

Figure 14.2 Percent of accommodation firms and all firms in Tasmania with 5 or more employees providing

selected online services in 2010 ......................................................................................................................... 484

Figure 14.3 Visitors to Tasmania......................................................................................................................... 485

Figure 14.4 Cruise ship total visitor numbers to Tasmania ................................................................................ 486

Figure 14.5 International visitors and corresponding visitor nights for Tasmania ............................................. 487

Figure 14.6 Average Expenditure per Visitor in Tasmania by Purpose of Travel: 2008 to 2011 ........................ 488

Figure 14.7 Origin of Interstate Visitors to Tasmania ......................................................................................... 489

Figure 14.8 Interstate Visitors to Tasmania by origin over time ........................................................................ 489

Figure 14.9 Interstate Visitors to Tasmania by origin over time ........................................................................ 490

Figure 14.10 Average Length of Stay (Nights) in Tasmania by Interstate Visitors by Origin (Jan 2011 - Dec 2011)

............................................................................................................................................................................ 490

Figure 14.11 International visitors by source region or country ........................................................................ 491

Figure 14.12 International visitor nights by country of residence (Year ended 31 December 2011) ................. 492

Figure 14.13 Average International visitor nights in Tasmania per person (Year ended 31 December 2011) ... 492

Figure 14.14 Average length of stay (nights) by international visitors to Tasmania .......................................... 493

Figure 14.15 Reasons for interstate visitors to Tasmania .................................................................................. 493

Figure 14.16 International visitors to Tasmania by main purpose of journey, including backpackers (Year ended

31 December 2011) ............................................................................................................................................ 494

Figure 14.17 Main reason for coming to Tasmania (sum of international visitors) over time ........................... 494

Figure 14.18 Average Length of Stay in Tasmania by Purpose of Travel (Jan 2011 - Dec 2011) ........................ 495

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Figure 14.19 Average Length of Stay in Tasmania by Purpose of Travel over time............................................ 495

Figure 14.20 Age of visitors to Tasmania ............................................................................................................ 496

Figure 14.21 Number of international visitors by age class ............................................................................... 497

Figure 14.22 International visitor nights and the United Stated Dollar/Australian dollar exchange rate .......... 498

Figure 14.23 International visitor nights and the Euro/Australian dollar exchange rate ................................... 499

Figure 14.24 International visitors and the United Stated Dollar/Australian dollar exchange rate ................... 499

Figure 14.25 International visitors and the Euro/Australian dollar exchange rate ............................................ 499

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List of Tables

Table 1.1 Estimates of direct and indirect jobs ..................................................................................................... 23

Table 1.2 Multipliers for key sectors and subsectors ............................................................................................ 24

Table 2.1 Employment Numbers by Region – Tasmania: November 2011 ........................................................... 27

Table 2.2 Industry Groupings – Tasmania and Regions (%) ................................................................................... 27

Table 2.3 Definition of the three main regions in Tasmania ................................................................................. 28

Table 4.1 Economic indicators for the Tasmanian forestry sector: 2006/07 to 2009/10 (all dollar values in

million AUD) ........................................................................................................................................................... 52

Table 4.2 Forest industry employment estimates by region: 1996 to 2011 .......................................................... 55

Table 4.3 Distribution of Industry of employment since leaving the forest sector (number of reported jobs by

sector) .................................................................................................................................................................... 63

Table 4.4 Communities most affected by past, current and future conditions in the forestry sector .................. 66

Table 5.1 Definition of sectors of interest for economic diversification ............................................................... 71

Table 5.2 Indicators to identify priority sectors..................................................................................................... 76

Table 5.3 Indicators to identify high leverage sectors ........................................................................................... 77

Table 5.4 Indicators to identify high innovative capability sectors: 2010 Tasmanian Innovation Census results . 78

Table 5.5 Economic potential of sector characteristics based on their attributes ................................................ 79

Table 5.6 Composite indices of sector performance on priority, high leverage and innovative capability

indicators ............................................................................................................................................................... 81

Table 5.7 Sector profiles on priority, high leverage and high innovative capability .............................................. 82

Table 5.8 Employment for target sectors only in each region, 2006 ..................................................................... 85

Table 5.9 2010 employment shares and export shares by region: for firms with 5+ employees ......................... 86

Table 5.10 Change in sales and exports between 2005/06 and 2009/10 for businesses with five plus employees

(TIC panel data, inflation adjusted) ....................................................................................................................... 88

Table 5.11 Investment in innovation by businesses with five plus employees, 2009/10 fiscal year ..................... 89

Table 5.12 Percent of businesses with five plus employees that collaborated on innovation, 2009/10 fiscal year

............................................................................................................................................................................... 90

Table 5.13 Preliminary alternatives for native forestry by region ......................................................................... 96

Table 6.1 Net Migration by Age – Tasmania: 1996/07 to 2010/11 ..................................................................... 104

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Table 6.2 Dependency Ratio and Labour Market Entry Exit Ratio – Australia and Tasmania ............................ 111

Table 6.3 Reasons for not participating in the labour market by age – Tasmania: Jan 2012 .............................. 118

Table 6.4 Labour force indicators for the target LGAs ......................................................................................... 120

Table 6.5 Percent Employment by Industry Group – Target LGAs (per cent), November 2011 .......................... 122

Table 6.6 Employment by Occupation – Tasmania and Regions: November 2011 ............................................. 125

Table 6.7 Level of education for target LGAs ....................................................................................................... 127

Table 6.8 Level of qualification for target LGAs ................................................................................................... 128

Table 6.9 SEIFA indices for target LGAs: Note, the lower the rank or decile, the higher the level of disadvantage,

2006 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 130

Table 6.10 Industry of employment, persons dependent on a job in the public sector in Tasmania in 2006. ... 133

Table 6.11 Total employment and public sector employment in Tasmania and Australia (‘000) ....................... 134

Table 6.12 ‘Government dependence’ as percentage of total population ......................................................... 135

Table 7.1 Regional land use strategies planning principles for agricultural uses ................................................ 140

Table 7.2 State and national initiatives for economic development ................................................................... 152

Table 7.3 Distance and driving times to the closest major hospitals from towns in target LGAs ....................... 163

Table 7.4 Number of GPs and Estimated FTE GPs per 100,000 Population by LGA, 2010 .................................. 164

Table 7.5 Class ranges for combined, senior secondary schools, and secondary schools offering post year 10

opportunities in target LGAs................................................................................................................................ 165

Table 7.6 Tasmanian soil types and fertility ........................................................................................................ 171

Table 7.7 Occurrence of soil orders in Tasmania by NRM region ........................................................................ 172

Table 7.8 Proportion of area of soil orders within major land use categories in Tasmania ................................ 173

Table 7.9 Land use for different land classes from Grose (eds) 1999.................................................................. 181

Table 7.10 Land use for target LGAs .................................................................................................................... 183

Table 8.1 Mill intake in cubic metres by log class and by region over 2010/2011 .............................................. 196

Table 8.2 Estimate of wood products produced in Tasmania over 2010/11 ....................................................... 197

Table 8.3 2009 Total Plantation Area by Tree Ownership Class .......................................................................... 199

Table 8.4 Local Government Area, Statistical Subdivision and State Plantation Extent ...................................... 200

Table 8.5 New Plantations Established in Tasmania from 2002 to 2010. ............................................................ 201

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Table 8.6 Establishment and management costs of eucalypts and radiata pine ................................................ 202

Table 8.7 Forestry processing sites operating in Tasmania by employment size class ....................................... 203

Table 8.8 Tasmanian sawmills by processing type as of February 2012 ............................................................. 204

Table 8.9 Last significant upgrade of sawmills .................................................................................................... 205

Table 8.10 Volume of Australian Wood Product Exports (SW = sawnwood): Excludes woodchips .................... 209

Table 8.11 Tasmanian Share of Wooden Furniture and Prefabricated Building Exports .................................... 210

Table 8.12 Australian Export Product Unit Values (Quarterly average, September 2006 to June 2011) ............ 211

Table 8.13 Area of private forested land with plantation potential, 2004-05 ..................................................... 222

Table 8.14 Recovery rates from Tasmanian sawmills .......................................................................................... 224

Table 8.15 Average recovery rates of broadleaf sawmills across Australia by input volume ............................. 225

Table 8.16 Average recovery rates of broadleaf sawmills by State ..................................................................... 226

Table 8.17 Asia and the Pacific sawmill recovery rates ....................................................................................... 226

Table 8.18 Total recovery and recoveries from combined select and standard grade ....................................... 228

Table 8.19 Board traits for logs processed by back-sawing and quarter-sawing ................................................ 229

Table 8.20 Western United States sawmill recovery rates .................................................................................. 232

Table 8.21 Estimated carbon and timber value of plantations ........................................................................... 240

Table 8.22 Workers required to establish and manage plantings on marginal land ........................................... 241

Table 8.23 Costs and Returns of Biochar Production ($US/ ton of biochar) ....................................................... 245

Table 9.1 Electricity transmitted by source of generation from 2005/06 through to 2010/11........................... 248

Table 9.2 Tasmanian energy delivery by customer type ..................................................................................... 249

Table 9.3 Maximum electricity demand from 2005/06 through to 2010/11 (in megawatts) ............................. 249

Table 9.4 Employment and Production in the Tasmanian Renewable Energy Sector ......................................... 250

Table 9.5 Existing Generation Capacity ............................................................................................................... 250

Table 9.6 Second Basslink – summary of issues .................................................................................................. 254

Table 9.7 Long Run Marginal Cost of electricity generation technologies under CPRS-5 ................................... 263

Table 9.8 2011 Utility / Industrial Scale Renewable Energy Project Pipeline ...................................................... 268

Table 9.9 2011 Distributed/Embedded Power Generation, R&D/Demonstration and Smaller Scale Projects .. 270

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Table 10.1 Dairy Asset and Operating Profit, Tasmania versus New Zealand .................................................... 280

Table 10.2 Estimated Dairy Processing Margins: Difference between Input Cost and Final Sales Price ............ 281

Table 10.3 Snapshot of Tasmanian dairy industry .............................................................................................. 287

Table 10.4 Value of Tasmanian dairy product exports ....................................................................................... 293

Table 10.5 Processor share of milk and investment in Tasmania ....................................................................... 294

Table 10.6 Market trends summary table .......................................................................................................... 298

Table 10.7 Butter ................................................................................................................................................ 312

Table 10.8 Cheese ............................................................................................................................................. 2315

Table 10.9 Skim milk powder .............................................................................................................................. 318

Table 10.10 Whole milk powder ......................................................................................................................... 321

Table 11.1 A comparison of Mean January Temperature MJT for some mainland Australia, Tasmanian and New

Zealand wine producing regions. ........................................................................................................................ 331

Table 11.2 Potential viticultural regions of Tasmania, based on rainfall, temperature and frost analysis. ....... 339

Table 11.3 The irrigation schemes, area irrigated, water volume, rate and central towns. .............................. 344

Table 11.4 The 2010 bearing area for Australian GI regions and Tasmania, sorted by size ............................... 349

Table 11.5 The most important regions in Australia producing Pinot Noir grapes, ABS data from Wine Australia,

2009/10 .............................................................................................................................................................. 357

Table 11.6 Australia’s imports of apple juice (around 12 Brix, Not Exceeding 20) ............................................. 387

Table 11.7 Australia’s imports of apple juice concentrate (Brix Value Exceeding 20) ........................................ 388

Table 12.1 Value of Australian production, exports and imports of fruit and vegetables from 2000/01 to

2010/11 ($ million) ............................................................................................................................................. 400

Table 12.2 Share of imports in the gross value of apparent consumption of fruit and vegetables, 2000/01 to

2010/11 .............................................................................................................................................................. 401

Table 12.3 Imports share of apparent consumption for fresh and dried produce ............................................. 403

Table 12.4 Tasmanian Fruit Snapshot, 2009 to 2011 ......................................................................................... 404

Table 12.5 Global summary table for fruit production and market demand, 2000 to 2010/11 ........................ 409

Table 12.6 Competitors and market expansion for counter seasonal fruit production ..................................... 411

Table 12.7: New Zealand exports of apple, pear, and quince produce (thousand $NZ, fob) ............................. 416

Table 12.8: New Zealand exports of fruit and nut products (June years ($NZ(000) fob)) .................................. 418

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Table 12.9 Snapshot of Tasmanian nut industry, 2008 to 2010 ......................................................................... 419

Table 12.10 Global nut production growth rates: 2000 to 2010 ........................................................................ 424

Table 12.11 Tasmanian vegetable industry snapshot, 2008-2010 ..................................................................... 430

Table 12.12 Tasmanian production of major commodities, 2011 ...................................................................... 431

Table 12.13 Summary table of annual growth rates in quantities, 2000-2010 (as stated) ................................ 434

Table 12.14 Tasmanian cut flower snapshot, 2001/02 and 2008/09 (as stated) ............................................... 442

Table 13.1 Tasmanian aquaculture snapshot ..................................................................................................... 453

Table 13.2 Aquaculture summary table ............................................................................................................. 456

Table 13.3 Average yearly growth of aquaculture (fish only) by decade ........................................................... 466

Table 14.1 Tasmanian tourism snapshot (most recent available data) .............................................................. 481

Table 14.2 Age distribution of visitors to Tasmania (Oct 2010 - Sept 2011) and for the Northern Territory (2008

– 2010) ................................................................................................................................................................ 496

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Acronyms and Abbreviations

ABARES Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics ACCU Australian Carbon Credit Unit ACT Australian Capital Territory AFF Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing ANIC Australian Nut Industry Council ANZSIC Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ARENA Australian Renewable Energy Agency ATO Australian Taxation Office AWRI Australian Wine Research Institute b Billion BITRE Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics BRA Botanical Resources Australia CATI Computer Assisted Telephone Interview CEFC Clean Energy Finance Corporation CFI Carbon Farming Initiative CIS Community Innovation Survey CO2 Carbon dioxide CO2-e Carbon dioxide equivalent CPM Carbon Price Mechanism CRA Comprehensive Regional Assessment CRC Cooperative Research Centre CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation CUB Carlton and United Breweries DAFF Department of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing (federal) DArT Diversity Array Technology DCAC Demographic Change Advisory Council DEDTA Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts DPIPWE Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment EMBRAPA Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation EMPCA Environmental Management and Pollution Control Act ENGO Environmental Non-Government Organisation EPBC Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations FGV Farm Gate Value FIS Forest Industry Survey FOB Free On Board FPP Forest Practices Plan FSC Forest Stewardship Council FTE Full Time Equivalent GDD Growing Degree Days GDP Gross Domestic Product GFC Global Financial Crisis GI Geographical Indications GIC Geographical Indications Committee GL Gigalitre GM Genetically Modified

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GP General Practitioner GSP Gross State Product GVACP Gross Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced GWh Gigawatt hour GWRDC Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation ha Hectare HDD Heat Degree Days ICT Information and Communication Technologies IVS International Visitor Survey Kg Kilogram KSh Kenyan shilling KT Kilo tonne KWh Kilowatt hour LGA Local Government Area LMEE Labour Market Entry Exit LUPAA Land Use Planning Approvals Act m Million m3 Cubic metres MIS Managed Investment Scheme MJT Mean January Temperature ML Mega litre mm Millimetre MT Mega tonne/million tonnes MW Mega Watt MWe Megawatt electrical MWh Megawatt hour NBN National Broadband Network NCAT National Carbon Accounting Toolbox NEM National Electricity Market NRM Natural Resource Management NSW New South Wales NZD, $NZ New Zealand Dollar NZIER New Zealand Institute of Economic Research OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PAL Policy State Policy for the Protection of Agricultural Land PTR Private Timber Reserves R&D Research and Development RD&D Research, Development and Demonstration REC Renewable Energy Certificate RET Renewable Energy Target RIM Regional Development Monitor RSP Retail Selling Price RWSC Rivers and Water Supply Commission SA South Australia SAR Special Administrative Region SEIFA Socio-Economic Indicators For Areas SME Small and Medium Enterprise SMP Skim Milk Powder T Tonne TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit TFES Tasmanian Freight Equalisation Scheme

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TFIGA Tasmanian Forest Inter-Governmental Agreement TI Tasmanian Irrigation TIA Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture TIC Tasmanian Innovation Census TIDB Tasmanian Irrigation Development Board TREIDB Tasmanian Renewable Energy Industry Development Board TVS Tasmanian Visitor Survey UK United Kingdom UMT United Milk Tasmania USA, US United States of America USDA United States Department of Agriculture UTAS University of Tasmania VET Vocational Education and Training WA Western Australia WFA Winemakers Federation of Australia WGGA Wine Grape Growers Australia WINZ Wine Institute of New Zealand WMP Whole Milk Powder