DoD Science and Technology for Communication and Persuasion Abroad Analysis

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14 . ABSTR AC T Th e Department of Defense's Rapid Reaction echnology Office (RRTO) issued a Strategic Communication

Science and Technology Plan in 2009 that surveyed the government's programs in this area and their gaps. To keep abreast of the latest technological developments, this report is being updated fo r FY

2012. Th e updated report discusses domains for future investment in research and development (R D) identifies gaps and proposes new science and technology (S T) initiatives; and surveys current S T programs.

Th e updated report finds that there has not been adequate investment in the technological gaps identified by RRTO in 2009. Furthermore, the U.S. government has made limited R D investments in usinsocial interaction technology, persuasive technology, and immersive virtual environments and simulatigames fo r communication and persuasion—areas of R D no t discussed at length in RRTO's 2009 report. N

reached this conclusion after surveying current U.S. government programs, reviewing recent academic

literature on technology for communication and persuasion, and consulting with experts inside and outside the U.S. government. Based on its analysis of these gaps, CNA has identified several areas foinvestment, particularly in the digital realm.15 . SUBJECT TERMS Technology, Strategic Communication, Survey, Gap Analysis RRTO, Rapid Reaction Technology Office 16 . SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF :

a. REPORT U b. ABSTR AC T

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19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSKnowledge enter/Robert Richa

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Contents Executive summary ii Introduction

Digital domains for research and development

Social interaction technology

Persuasive technology

Immersive virtual environments and simulation games

Identified gaps and proposed S&T activities for communication and persuasion Survey and validation of theories and techniques for influence in the digital realm Target audience analysis, trend monitoring, and source criticism

Online measures of effectiveness 0 Training in techniques of communication and persuasion in the digital realm 0 Immersive virtual environments and simulation games for non-military purposes 1 Persuasive technology on mohile devices for encouraging positive hehavior 1 Crowdsourcing for problem solving and accountability 1 Studying adversary use of social media 2 Technology for promoting freedom under repressive regimes 2 Expanding investment in emerging technologies 2

Appendix: Survey of Current Programs 5



Executive summary Over the ast 0 years, he U.S . government has made significant investments n science and echnology n order to enhance ts ability o understand and shape public opinion and ehavior broad—a omain f activity eferred o n his eport s shaping,

influencing, or communication nd persuasion. ecause his effort s aking place across a vast government bureaucracy, he policy-makers and practitioners engaged n communication and persuasion do not always know what ools are at heir disposal and what tools need to be invented. To address this problem, the Department of Defense's Rapid Reaction Technology Office (RRTO) ssued a Strategic Communication Science and Technology Plan in 2009 hat surveyed he government's programs n his area and heir gaps. To keep abreast of the latest technological developments, RRTO commissioned CNA to update this report for FY 2012. The pdated eport iscusses omains or uture nvestment n esearch nd development R&D); dentifies gaps and proposes new science and echnology S&T) initiatives; and surveys current S&T programs. There has not been adequate investment in the technological gaps identified by RRTO in

2009. urthermore, he U.S. overnment has made imited &D nvestments n sing social interaction echnology, persuasive technology, and immersive virtual environments and simulation games for communication and persuasion—areas of R&D not discussed at length n RRTO's 2009 report. CNA reached this conclusion after surveying current U.S. government rograms, eviewing ecent cademic iterature n echnology or communication and persuasion, and consulting with experts inside and outside the U.S. government. Based on an analysis of these gaps, we have identified the following areas for investment:

• urvey and validation of theories and techniques for influence in the digital realm

• arget audience analysis, trend monitoring, and source criticism • nline measures of effectiveness • raining in techniques of communication and persuasion in the digital realm

iii



• mmersive virtual environments and simulation games for non-military purposes

• ersuasive technology on mobile devices for encouraging positive behavior • rowdsourcing for problem solving and accountability • tudying adversary use of social media • echnology for promoting freedom under repressive regimes • xpanding investment in emerging technologies

Although hese development, esearch, and raining gaps have een isted separately, they re nterdependent, s re he hree echnologies ighlighted elow: ocial interaction echnology, persuasive echnology, and mmersive virtual environments and simulation games. ndeed, s he echnologies converge on one another, t will become more difficult to speak of different domains of technological esearch and development for communication and persuasion. As communication becomes more digital i.e., mediated by computers), more interactive (enhancing an individual's influence), and more mobile, hose who understand the new communication environment and know how to use it effectively will have more influence than hose ho o ot. udience nalysis s ot nough. herefore, his eport recommends onducting esearch n ffective echniques or cultivating elationships and nfluencing people n he digital ealm, as well as nvesting n new echnologies o deploy them. Despite he focus of this eport on echnology for communication and persuasion, such technology will only succeed in advancing U.S. interests if it serves well-informed policies; if the senior makers of those policies use and understand he echnologies hemselves; and if the practitioners carrying out those policies remember that putting a human face on n nstitution's words and ctions nd stablishing positive elationships—on nd offline—with people working toward shared goals matter more than the substance of any particular message.

IV



Introduction Over the ast 0 years, he U.S . government has made significant investments n science and echnology n order to enhance ts ability o understand and shape public opinion and ehavior broad—a omain f activity eferred o n his eport s shaping,

influencing, or communication and persuasion. ecause his effort s aking place across a vast government bureaucracy, he policy-makers and practitioners engaged n communication and persuasion do not always know what ools are at heir disposal and what ools eed o e nvented. urther omplicating his andscape s he act hat different gencies ave ifferent oles nd esponsibilities or nderstanding nd engaging with oreign populations. Nevertheless, many of the same ools could enhance those agencies' capabilities if there were better awareness of them across the government. To address this problem, the Department of Defense's Rapid Reaction Technology Office (RRTO) ssued a Strategic Communication Science and Technology Plan in 2009 hat emphasized ostering ositive elationships ith oreign ublics o urther America's national security. Many of its ecommendations were process oriented, ncluding greater coordination f .S. overnment essaging; outine raining or ommunication professionals; and broader communication ramework han he current one, which s used primarily to counter violent extremism and monitor Middle Eastern affairs. Those ecommendations still stand and were einforced n he Hovise Armed ervices Committee HASC) eport on he National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2012, which calls for technical capabilities to respond in systemic, apid, sustained and measurable way o he onstant arrage f narratives eing sed o ndermine ur military and security efforts. The HASC eport also appeals for technologies to apidly analyze and respond to adversarial narratives in the information environment.

To keep abreast of the atest developments in science and echnology for understanding and shaping foreign audiences, RRTO has commissioned CNA to update ts 2009 eport by surveying the programs of the relevant U.S. government agencies and identifying gaps in current capabilities. NA inds hat here has not been adequate nvestment n he technological aps dentified y RRTO. urthermore, he U.S. overnment has made limited &D nvestments n using social nteraction echnology, persuasive echnology, and mmersive irtual nvironments nd imulation ames or ommunication nd persuasion—areas ot discussed t ength n RTO's 009 eport. NA eached his



conclusion after conducting a survey of current U.S. governments programs, eviewing recent cademic iterature n echnology or ommunication nd ersuasion, nd consulting with experts inside and outside the U.S. government. Some f he pecific cience nd echnology gaps dentified y RRTO's 009 eport included:

• emantic analysis to identify themes in online media and track the popularity of U.S. policy;

• space-based radio transmitter; • etter access to the Internet and social media over cell phones in developing

countries; • etter machine translation, storage, and retrieval capabilities; • mobile printing powered by solar or other alternative means; and • uantitative assessment of communication and influence activities

Since 009, .S. overnment gencies ave unded esearch nd evelopment n semantic analysis of social media

1 nd machine ranslation.2 Much more nvestment n

these and he ther echnologies dentified n he 009 eport s critical, iven heir importance in shaping foreign opinion. Equally mportant s onducting esearch n ffective echniques or ultivating relationships and influencing people in he digital realm. It is not enough to know one's audience nd se he atest echnology o each hem. Different digital media avor different echniques f nfluence. n omparison ith acebook, or xample, connections stablished n witter re ore erendipitous ince ts esign llows messages o e een nd epeated y eople nknown o he riginal uthor. The differences between digital media should be studied, validated, learned, and exploited to achieve the desired effects.

See IARPA's Open Source Indicators Program (Solicitation #: IARPA-BAA-11-11) and DARPA's Social Media in Strategic Communication (Solicitation #: DARPA-BAA-11-64).

2 See IARPA's Babel Program (Solicitation #: IARPA-BAA-11-02).





communication environment and know how to use it effectively will have more influence than those who do not.

7

Although here as earth f iterature bout nline nfluence n nteractive environments a few years ago, hat has started o change, at least in he social sciences.8 But ven ow, he iterature s ot ynthesized n ays hat re seful or he U.S. government. esearch aps dentified y cademics nclude he ays hat nline interactivity affects beliefs and behaviors differently from he physical world;

9 the mpact

of gender on such nteractions;10 the ways that different communication modalities favor

different strategies of influence; social media users' reasons for aligning themselves with an organization and creating content hat serves he organization's PR objectives;

12 new

metrics or measuring messaging;13 how people gather and share nformation online;

14 and ways that public relations practitioners and senior executives become more valuable and accessible to different audiences.

15 Scholars of online influence have noted that most

studies ook at he nteractions of strangers, ven hough most nteractions of people online are between hose who know, or want o know, one another.

16 Researchers have

7 Wright and Hinson, An Updated Look, 3.

H In 2005, Rosanna Guadagno and Robert Cialdini noted the dearth of academic literature on persuasion and social media. See their Online Persuasion and Compliance: Social Influence on the Internet and Beyond.pdf, in The Social Net: The Social Psychology of the Internet, ed. by Yair Amichai-Hamburger (New York: Oxford U niversity Press, 2005), 109.

9 Guadagno and Cialdini, Online Persuasion and Compliance, 110. ' Ibid. Ibid., 111.

12 Smith, Socially Distributing Public Relations, 333-4.

1 S Ibid., 334.

14 Wright and Hinson, An Updated Look, 4. On increasing the accessibility andvalue of public relations professionals in the eyes of journalists, see Smith, Socially Distributing Public Relations, 334; Richard D. Waters, Natalie T . J Tindall, and Timothy S. Morton, Media Catching and theJournalist-Public Relations Practitioner Relationship: How Social Media Are Changing the Practice of Media Relations,

Journal of Public Relations 22, issue 3 (2010): 243-5, 260-1. Guadagno and Cialdini, Online Persuasion and Compliance, 110.



also noted hat there s a preference for studying text-based communication s opposed to interaction in immersive virtual environments.

1

Public elations rofessionals lso und esearch n nline nfluence n nteractive environments, but t pertains mostly o heir specific organizations. The questions hat primarily interest hem are how much social media communication here s about heir organization; what is being said; what impact that information has on their key audiences; and ow he nformation s ffecting ttitudes nd ehavior egarding heir organization.

18 The .S. overnment ould sk he ame uestions f ts gencies, particularly those with a more public profile abroad. Most heories of online nfluence n nteractive environments are based on ualitative research. Such esearch is a necessary first step to understanding the digital environment but it is not often ollowed by quantitative esting and validation, for which he data-rich Internet s deally suited. or example, a ime-honored heory of nfluence olds hat certain ndividuals, r influentials, ediate essages etween nstitutions nd individuals, and are hus esponsible for sparking major social changes. Recent research has found hat n most circumstances, his s he exception ather han he ule.'

9 This

kind f heory validation esearch an eep he government rom wasting millions of dollars and much effort on echnologies and messaging strategies derived from unsound or outmoded heories of communication and nfluence. t also ay s he groundwork for developing credible measures of effectiveness or nfluence ctivities, oth nline and off—an area where the U.S . government often falls short.

Persuasive technology Another area or prospective nvestment s persuasive echnology—computing systems that are specifically designed to bring about a change in attitudes or behaviors. Most of the research in this area focuses on health, social issue awareness, marketing.

17 Ibid., 11.

IS Wright and Hinson, An Updated Look, 18. Duncan Watts and Peter Sheridan Dodds, Influentials, Networks, and Public Opinion Formation, Journal of Consumer Research 34 , no. 4 (December 2007): 441-458. B. J. Fogg, Persuasive Technology: Using Computers to Change What We Think and Do (Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2003), 32.



occupational improvements, and creating empathy.21 For example, private companies are

developing itness oftware n obile hones hat ses oal-setting echniques o encourage hysical ctivity.

22 he heoretical rameworks n he ield f ersuasive technology are heavily influenced by studying technology use n he West—which, some argue, biases the field toward ndividualist rather than collectivist motives for action.

28

Although he U.S. government has had success in developing this kind of technology to increase ecruitment in he military,

24 it has not invested heavily in using the technology to foster skills that highly correlate with peaceful outcomes, such as empathy and conflict resolution skills.

25 Admittedly, here are ew examples of such echnology and here s

little esearch n he urability f heir hort-term ositive utcomes. Nevertheless, studies of persuasive echnologies, particularly games, have found hat they are effective at disseminating messages, which is why they have increasingly become part of marketing campaigns.

26 t might be worthwhile o nvest n esearch on he persuasiveness of so -

called erious ames, articularly or on-Western ultures, nd o evelop ew technologies o hat nd. uch nvestment hould nclude mmersive irtual environments, hich avor ifferent trategies f nfluence han ext-based environments.

27

Rilla Khaled, Culturally-Relevant Persuasive Technology (Dissertation, V ictoria U niversity of Wellington, 2008), 11. 2 S. Consolvo, P. Klasnja, D. W. McDonald, andj. A. Landay, Goal-setting considerations for persuasive technologies that encourage physical activity, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Persuasive Technology Persuasive 09 2009). Rilla Khaled, Pippin Barr, Ronald Fischer, James Noble, and Robert Biddle, Factoring Culture into the Design of a Persuasive Game, Journal of Consumer Research, 2006: 213-14.

24 David B. Nieborg, America's Army: More Than a Game, Bridging the Gap: Transforming Knowledge into Action through Gaming and Simulation Munich: Ludwig Maximilians U niversity, 2004), CD-ROM; Terry Lavender, Games Just Wanna Have Fun .. . Or Do They? Measuring The Effectiveness of Persuasive Games, Loading 1, no . 2007). George Veletsianos and Annita Eliadou, Conceptualizing the U se of Technology to Foster Peace via Adventure Learning, The Internet and Higher Education 12 (2009).

26 Ibid., 16. Guadagno and Cialdini, Online Persuasion and Compliance, 111. The U.S. government has

started o nvest n he development of serious games or raining ntelligence nalysts see IARPA's Sirius Program (Solicitation #: IARPA-BAA-11-03).



Immersive virtual environments and simulation games The ersuasive ower f mmersive irtual nvironments derives rom heir ability o completely surround he enses f users. n tudies f human nteractions n irtual environments, or xample, esearchers ound hat he ersuasiveness f igital representation of a user—an avatar—grew as t became more ifelike. This was even he case when he avatar was controlled by a computer. Similarly, studies found that the effect of violent videos was heightened in an immersive environment.

8

The U.S. military is advanced in its development of immersive technology and simulation games, articularly or raining purposes. ndeed, he U.S. military s so roficient n creating mmersive virtual nvironments '

9 t could use hat proficiency and ts gaming

capabilities• o uild ies o on-military nstitutions. or xample, he U.S. military might ffer he GO non-governmental rganization) ommunity ssistance ith training exercises, crisis simulations, and so orth. Such assistance would oster positive attitudes toward the military, better acquaint the military with NGO needs and dynamics, and prepare both parties to cope with sudden crises. The ultimate utility of these areas of research and development will be determined by how ell hey meet he equirements f policy-makers nd ractitioners ngaged n communication nd ersuasion. ut nless he overnment nvests n ew reas f research nd technology nd nows ow o se the ools t lready ossesses, the

H J . M. Loomis, J . J . Blascovich, and A. C. Beall, Immersive virtual environment echnology as a basic esearch oo l n psychology, Behavior Research Methods, nstruments, & Computers: A Journal of the Psychonomic Society, nc31.4 1999): 57-64; Rosanna E. Guadagno, J. . Blascovich, and Jeremy N. Bailenson. V irtual Humans and Persuasion The Effects of Agency and Behavioral Realism, Media Psychology 10.1 2007): -22; Susan Persky and Jim Blascovich, Immersive irtual nvironments ersus raditional latforms: ffects f iolent nd

Nonviolent V ideo Game Play, Media Psychology 10.1 2007): 135-156. For example, see the U.S. Army's recent effort to hold a force protection exercise in an entirely virtual environment, at: (http://www.army.mil/article/71379/European_garrisons_protecting_Army_communities_wi th _virtual_training/). For example, see UrbanSim http://ict.usc.edu/media/ovemews/UrbanSim_Overview.pdf), Elusive V ictory (http://www.decisive-point.com/portfolio/elusivevictory.html), and MMOWGLI (http://portal.mmowgli.nps.edu/). For an overview of these types of games, see PAXsims (paxsims.wordpress.com) and Michael Peck, Confessions of an Xbox General, Foreign Policy, Sep. 28 , 2011 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/201 l/09/28/Xbox_general?page=0,0).



requirements of policy-makers and practitioners will be limited to what they have at hand and understand.

8



Identified gaps and proposed S& T activities fo r communication and persuasion What ollows s n verview f gaps n U.S. overnment cience nd echnology or communication and persuasion based on he new research areas identified above, expert interviews, and a survey of current U.S. programs (see Appendix).

Survey and validation of theories and techniques for influence in th e digital realm The oregoing as arely kimmed he urface f esearch n nfluence n igital environments. The U.S. government would benefit rom survey of the atest heories and echniques of online nfluence n digital environments, particularly n he areas of interactive echnology, persuasive echnology particularly mobile phone applications), immersive virtual environments, and simulation games. The survey should remark on he extent o hich ach heory nd echnique as een alidated, sing uantitative methods. This survey might be ollowed by basic esearch o est he unvalidated heories t has identified nd y nvesting n ew esearch n nfluence n omputer-mediated communication. The esearch should be cross-disciplinary and look at a variety of digital platforms. The esults f he urvey nd he ubsequent esearch might e ntegrated n he government's raining or ts ublic ffairs rofessionals, nfluence pecialists, nd analysts.

Target audience analysis, trend monitoring, and source criticism Because he subject was reated n RRTO's 2009 eport on S&T, he oregoing has not focused on using digital echnology for arget audience analysis and rend monitoring.

9



Nevertheless, hese reas eed ar more nvestment nd ttention. he nternet n general and social media n particular can complement and n some nstances eplace other sensors of audience opinion and behavior, such as polls, focus groups, and Nielsen ratings. Data derived online

are cheaper, more imely, more scalable, and n many ways

more nuanced and detailed. Even if we poorly understand how to influence populations, the data gathered online can serve as an early warning of growing rends o which he U.S. government will need o espond. Areas hat equire mmediate attention nclude audience segmentation derived rom unstructured data and determining he extent o which nline pinion esearch meshes ith imilar esearch n he hysical orld, particularly in authoritarian countries. Another area that requires attention is the use of online data to identify the biases and interests of sources of information. Minerva's Real- Time Contextual Mapping and Visualization Dashboard or Muslim Social Movements

(see Appendix) s one example of how such data might be gathered and represented.

Online measures of effectiveness Experts onsulted or his eport gree hat he easures f ffectiveness or communication nd ersuasion re bysmal—whether nside r utside overnment, digital or not. Most measures that are touted as showing the influence of a campaign have to do with performance ather han effectiveness. The U.S. government might invest n research on ways to use the Internet to measure the effectiveness of messaging campaigns online and n he physical world. Since each echnology has metrics specific o t, he research genda s xpansive. The metrics or measuring ffectiveness n acebook, Twitter, and blogs are better developed in he academic literature and the private sector than he metrics or ther orms f ocial media such s iscussion oards) nd persuasive echnologies, which have attracted ess academic or private ndustry interest. For example, how does one measure effectiveness by means of mobile platforms?

Training in techniques of communication and persuasion in the digital realm The ruits of esearch n cience and echnology or communication nd ersuasion need o be ncorporated nto raining courses for public affairs professionals, nfluence specialists, and analysts. Funding for the development of curricula and training modules should eceive t east s much mphasis s nvestment n ew echnology. rivate industry is already investing in new technology; for the U.S. government, t is a matter of learning o use his technology effectively and deploying the atest techniques n online persuasion and research. If such training is not taking place at the Defense schools or the 10



Foreign Service nstitute, he U.S. government might make t part of the curriculum or create an ndependent schoolhouse. Such raining might nclude parsing open source data or udience nalysis; echniques or nline ersuasion nd ngagement; sing social media for problem solving; and

ncorporating new communication and persuasion

technologies and techniques in executive-level decision making.

Immersive virtual environments and simulation games for non-military purposes The U.S. government s already ahead of many n private enterprise n developing and using immersive virtual environments and simulation games, particularly in he military. The military might ind ways o efashion hese platforms for working with non-military partners and messaging o key audiences—for example, raining NGOs o better work with U.S . agencies in the immediate aftermath of disasters.

Persuasive technology on mobile devices for encouraging positive behavior Persuasive echnology s growth ndustry, especially or mobile devices. ts success n encouraging healthy ifestyles suggests hat t could be used o promote other positive behaviors in ndividuals and communities. Since its application n areas of interest to the U.S. government, such s conflict esolution, s nascent, he U.S. government might use its considerable experience in creating persuasive echnology for military recruitment to experiment with its utility in encouraging positive behavior in other sectors and societies.

Crowdsourcing fo r problem solving and accountability Over he ast ew years, activists and entrepreneurs have used social media o pool he collective isdom f ts sers o rrive t olutions or verything rom overnment corruption, o raffic ongestion, o esigns or -shirts. he se f his ort f technology—i.e., crowdsourcing —and esearch n ts ffectiveness, articularly n unstable states and conflict zones, could enhance a number of government programs and public-private partnerships. One area of exploration might be creating, managing, and participating in ad hoc communities of interest for everything from crisis management to messaging fter arge errorist ttacks. Another rea f esearch s echniques nd technologies or mpowering thers o dvance .S. nterests ithout overnment interference.



Studying adversary use of social media Militant roups—from l-Qaeda nd he aliban, o tate ctors uch s ran's Revolutionary Guards—are using social media to monitor and influence public opinion. But most cademic esearch n ocial edia s onfined o eaceful roups nd institutions, and does not always translate well into understanding how the United States' adversaries are using newer technology to advance their objectives. The U.S. government might invest in cross-disciplinary studies on he ways militant groups use social media o advance their causes.

Technology fo r promoting freedom under repressive regimes There s a debate about whether some echnologies are nherently democratizing and beneficial and, consequently, whether the United States should be providing them to the public. For example, the U.S. Navy developed Tor, a free technology that allows users to browse online anonymously. The U.S. State Department has promoted he echnology abroad o ssist eople iving nder epressive egimes. owever, he echnology s frequently criticized by anti-piracy advocates, who argue hat t s often sed o mask criminal ctivity. The U.S. overnment might und esearch nto which echnologies further ts national security and human ights nterests and how hose echnologies are best deployed to maximize their desired positive effect and minimize their harm.

Expanding investment in emerging technologies Through nstitutions ike n-Q-Tel nd n-house nnovation ffices ike DARPA nd IARPA, the U.S. government is already investing in new technologies for communication and persuasion. For example, ARPA's Babel Program see Appendix) s developing speech ecognition echnology to improve speech transcription for languages other than English, making it easier to search. The government might consider expanding the remit of hese nstitutions o nvest n esearch nd evelopment or ommunication nd persuasion technology. To ensure that these technologies are understood and used by its employees, he .S. overnment ight lso ncourage ollaboration etween ts communicators and he echnologists at ts n-house nnovation ffices, who can elp each ther dentify echnological gaps and use off-the-shelf echnologies o meet U.S. objectives abroad

12



Although hese development, esearch, and raining gaps have een isted separately, they re nterdependent, s re he hree echnologies ighlighted bove: ocial interaction echnology, persuasive echnology, and mmersive virtual environments and simulation games. ndeed, s he echnologies converge on one another, t will become more difficult to speak of different domains of technological esearch and development for ommunication nd ersuasion. ersuasive echnologies ill ncorporate ocial interaction echnologies, virtual environments will borrow he echniques of persuasive technologies, and so forth. Despite he focus of this report on echnology for communication and persuasion, such technology will only succeed in advancing U.S. interests if it serves well-informed policies; if the senior makers of those policies use and understand he echnologies hemselves; and f the practitioners carrying out those policies emember that putting a human ace on n nstitution's words nd ctions nd stablishing positive elationships—on nd offline—with people working toward shared goals matter more than he substance of any particular message. ronically, digital echnology is making this human connection more possible now than at any time in the modern era.

3



Appendix: Survey of Current Programs c Collaboration Increasing ollaboration nd raining cross nd

beyond Government D Discourse Analysis f radical nd ounter-radical messages nd

ideas F First Three Feet Empowering, Equipping Educating nd Encouraging

media and others to exist and freely report on vents for what they really are

I Infrastructure Enabling nd facilitating ccess o nformation rom news to markets to vocational

M Modeling and Forecasting Gaming and nticipating adversarial messages, deas, and activities and our counters and pre-emptives

P Psych Defense Planning and capaci ty building for dealing xvith critical strains in society in peacet ime and wartime

S Social Media Knowledge Management ocial Media nd irtual Worlds

u Understanding Develop ountry, ulture, nd egional xpertise, including polling

Categories and descriptions are drawn from 2009 RRTO report on Strategic Communication Science and Technology Plan.

5



Project Name Description Execution Agent Return on Investment Analytic Framework for COCOM VOICE Operations

The ontractor hall evelop ne r more eturn n nvestment Analytic Frameworks or he OCOM oice Operations. hese rameworks hall provide measurements of performance, measurements f ffectiveness, nd methods of determining overall eturn on nvestment f rogram ollars. Deliverables nclude: ) n nalysis plan; ) evelopment f emi- structured nstrument o ssist n Stakeholder

nterviews;

)

ummary

report with a iterature eview; a inal report inal nalysis frameworks/scorecards; nd ) development of a raining manual and slide resentation etailing he application of its ROI framework(s).

ASD(SO/LIC)- CTTSO

Population Research and Analysis Planning

Support to Military Information Support Operations

The ontractor hall esign nd execute a graduated esearch raining course

or

he Department

of Defense

designed o e aught n n incremental ashion, over an extended period of time. As many as six courses of raining re esired o each advanced, enior, nd as n ption) master pproaches o he methodological esign nd interpretation f ublic pinion polling, ocus roups, n-depth interviews,

media

analysis

and

eneral

analytical oncepts ssociated ith evaluation. dditionally, he ourses shall highlight examples of the types of situations where each approach s most useful.

ASD(SO/LIC)- CTTSO

16





Metaphor Program

The Metaphor Program will exploit the fact hat metaphors re ervasive n everyday talk and reveal he underlying beliefs

and worldviews

of members of a

culture. n he irst phase f he wo- phase rogram, erformers ill develop utomated ools nd techniques or ecognizing, efining and ategorizing inguistic metaphors associated ith arget oncepts nd found n arge mounts f ative language text. The resulting conceptual metaphors ill e alidated sing empirical ocial cience ethods. n the econd hase, he rogram il l characterize iffering ultural perspectives associated with case studies of he ypes f nterest o he Intelligence ommunity. erformers will apply he methodology established in he irst phase and will dentify he conceptual etaphors sed y he various rotagonists, rganizing nd structuring hem o eveal he contrastive stances.

IARPA

Leaders of Influence - Maldives

This is a counter-radicalization series of seminars, orkshops, nd iscussions facilitated y he sia oundation, incorporating eligious nd ecular leaders n he aldives o dvocate moderate eligious messages olerance of issenting iews nd on-violent expressions of faith. The series will also serve o iscredit iolent xtremist ideology. Additionally, he eries il l establish etwork f ew ey communicators and contacts for future programs.

USSOCOM

18



I Operation PALISADES

Op Palisades Cell Towers to ensure 24x7 availability USCENTCOM of cellular service to Afghans, commencing in RCSOUTH

USCENTCOM

I Public Command Message Translation Website

The USPACOM website and public pages o nclude elected hird arty media content translated, culturally optimized, and updated daily n the languages of Japanese, Chinese (Mandarin), Indonesian (Bahasa), Korean, ndian (Hindu), ietnamese, Mongolian and Thai.

This apability rovides logging nd interactive, public communication capabilities utilizing existing social media and network sites like Facebook, Flickr, nd witter r ther egional web applications.

USPACOM

Regional Magazine Initiative (RMI) - Multiple /

Worldwide

USSOCOM develops a centrally- managed magazine architecture within which participating COCOM magazines tailored to foreign audiences can operate n order to amplify their trans- regional impact, achieve cost efficiencies and enhance quality.

USSOCOM

I Trans Regional Web Initiative (TRWI) - Multiple / Worldwide

USSOCOM develops a centrally- managed website architecture within which participating OCOM websites tailored to foreign audiences can operate n order to amplify their trans- regional impact, achieve cost efficiencies and enhance quality.

USSOCOM

19



Center for Strategie Counterterrorism Communications (CSCC)

An xecutive rder stablished he CSCC n Y 1. he oal f he interagency center is synchronizing the USG's CT and CV E communications.

DOS

Real-Time Contextual Mapping and Visualization Dashboard for Muslim Social Movements

A web portal hat provides access o a broad ange f nformation. This will include atabase hat racks oth radical and counter-radical networks of ideas nd ctors. he eb ortal's dashboard ill raphically ap he diffusion and nfluence, geographically and diachronically, f hese deas and actors. The dashboard will eature he ability o earch nd eturn esults which nclude escriptive nformation about nd lassification f he earch terms nd onstructs; isual representation of where along multiple spectrums any particular group lies at a defined eriod f ime ased n he project's analysis of multi-faceted cross- regional

nd

ross-disciplinary

ata

using heoretically riven on-binary models hich apture he omplexity of he aterial; he bility o rack peaking eligious, olitical, socioeconomic markers driving Muslim social ovements, heir arget demographics, and locations.

ASD(R&E)- Minerva

20



I Babel Program The abel rogram will evelop gile and robust speech recognition technology hat can be apidly applied to any human language in order to provide ffective earch apability or analysts o fficiently rocess massive amounts of real-world recorded speech. Today's ranscription ystems are uilt on technology that was originally developed or nglish, ith markedly lower performance on non-English languages. These systems have often taken years to develop and cover only a small

ubset

f

he languages

f

he

world. Babel intends to demonstrate the ability to generate a speech transcription system for any new language ithin ne eek o upport keyword search performance for effective riage f massive amounts f speech recorded in challenging real- world situations.

I RP

M Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations Update

The objective of the - VEO project was to gain a holistic understanding of intended and unintended effects of Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations (IVEO) that can be transferred to a usable analytic framework that informed decision- makers and planners. The resulting holistic analyses derived analytic confidence from the examination of sound theoretical knowledge,

conceptual modeling, and testing in historical cases. The results of this study aided he Joint Staff and OCOMs at strategic and operational levels by providing a conceptual framework grounded in scientifically-sound

ASD(R E)- Strategic Multilayer Assessment







campaigns. 4. Counter messaging of detected adversary influence operations.

Global Assessment Program GAP)

The Global Assessment Program GAP) supports Military nformation upport Operations MISO) roducts or USSOCOM nd he eographic Combatant ommands n verseas Contingency Operations. The program: * lans, evelops, rganizes, coordinates nd nalyzes elevant qualitative esearch, statistically reliable and alid uantitative esearch, nd testing nd olling ctivities t he local, provincial, national, and egional levels ased pon SSOCOM designated bjectives. * Annually, ollects eo-located ata, both ualitative nd uantitative, hat relates o he performance and effects of existing nfluence activities n ach country specified y he Government. Sample sizes shall be sufficiently arge enough o nable he Government o use the province as he smallest unit of analysis. * Applies urrent esearch nd ocio- cultural xplanations f adicalization and iolent xtremism o nderstand the ffectiveness f human nfluence, media ommunications nd engagement operations and activities in achieving nited tates overnment and epartment f efense DoD) objectives. * etermines he opulation's sympathy/antipathy or al-Qaida AQ) and ts llies' methods nd ationales for radicalization, recruitment and

USSOCOM

2 4



propensity for violence at the provincial level or country equivalent); as well as , assesses nd efines he easons or their ympathy/antipathy nd heir valid uman actors nfluence requirements. * Uses ime-series nalyses, redictive modeling, nd tatistical atching techniques e.g., ropensity coring) and eospatial nalysis o iscern he impact of military information support operations rogram nitiatives. * ssesses he fficacy f nfluence programs

elivered

sing

ariety

f

media including printed materials, web- based content, television and radio. * Using ombination f ualitative and uantitative ethodologies, assesses he ffectiveness nd synchronization of content across trans- regional roducts overing ach Geographic ombatant ommand's area f esponsibility. * Assesses the effectiveness of regionally and trans-regionally oriented web-based influence rograms. ssessments f content ynchronization nd effectiveness hall e onducted annually or each website and/or web- based initiative.

U Internet Service Translation f ocal nd atellite ews to analyze USCENTCOM raq area of operations

events,

and provided

advice

to theJ33 IO

USCENTCOM

Focus Group and Polling

Polling s onducted or ong erm trends and analysis of the environment. Focus Groups are conducted o pretest brand products, ignificant changes n the environment, and other cultural or

USCENTCOM

2 5



topical issues.

u Baseline Develop initial Mexico information USSOUTHCOM Assessment of environment baseline. Identify MISO Effects in influence control factors to apply MISO Mexico effects. Understand threat actors in

area of operations, C-Trans-National Crime Organization and counterterrorism. Understand the use of social media and monitor influence and effects on threat, government,

population, and green forces.

u OPERATION Manage Operation RELIANT OICE USPACOM Reliant Voice (ORV) influence assessment effort. Assessment Intent is to synchronize all ORV

assessment rocesses; ugmented ith assessment subject matter experts to deliver an integrated, efficient and effective report detailing execution and impact of all ORV operations, activities, and actions.

u Research and Determine factors in Nepal that USPACOM Analysis of Nepal contribute to a fragile security Security environment and how SOCPAC can Environment influence those factors in future

operations u Vulnerable A series of targeted/random USSOCOM

Population Study assessments to identify USSOCOM (VPS) (VPS) opulation groups vulnerable o

religious radicalization, extremist recruitment and illicit activities (smuggling, piracy, trafficking) in order to develop information on potential target udiences for uture MIST-BG programs, and gauge changes

26



in perception over time.

u Gather Information - Thailand

The MIST will employ independent contractors, hrough he Open Source Center, for the collection of information on past and current MISO programs, violent extremist ideology messaging, and atmospherics of the operating environment.

USSOCOM

u Designing a Qualitative Data Collection Strategy for Africa

The nstitute or Defense Analyses will survey the qualitative data requirements among USG designers and users of computational models relating to Africa. In ddition o nterviews ith individual stakeholders, IDA will convene a workshop of the USG modeling and simulation community to identify existing tools, models, and simulations currently being used to inform analyses of the African continent;

ata

ategories,

ields,

nd

other ypes of data currently collected; sources of existing qualitative data; sampling methodologies; gaps in qualitative data; and evaluate the quality of data currently collected and gauge nterest/need to alidate ata. IDA ill then work closely ith the sponsor, ther USG takeholders, and key egional articipants nd artner institutions to develop a qualitative data collection strategy.

ASD(R&E)-Rapid Reaction Technology Office

27



Open Source Indicators

Many ignificant ocietal vents re preceded nd/or ollowed y population-level hanges n communication, onsumption, nd movement. Some of these changes may be ndirectly observable rom ublicly available ata, uch s eb earch queries, logs, icro-blogs, nternet traffic, inancial arkets, raffic webcams, Wikipedia dits, nd many others. ublished esearch as ound that ome f hese ata ources re individually seful n he arly detection f vents uch s isease outbreaks. But few methods have been developed for anticipating or detecting unexpected vents y using ublicly available ata f multiple ypes rom multiple sources. IARPAs Open Source Indicators OSI) rogram ims o ill this ap y eveloping methods or continuous, utomated nalysis f publicly vailable ata n rder o anticipate nd/or etect ignificant societal events, such as political crises, humanitarian rises, ass iolence, riots, ass igrations, isease outbreaks, conomic nstability, resource hortages, nd esponses o natural isasters. erformers ill e evaluated on he basis of warnings hat they deliver about real-world events.

IARPA

Documents

DoD Science and Technology for Communication and Persuasion Abroad Analysis