Dry Bulk 200511

Dry Bulk TradeOutlook

Volume 11, No 11 ISSN: 1361-3189

CABI* as at November, 2005 Atlantic Freight Costs Last Month......

HIGHER!! Grain:

Selection of major dry bulk loading ports

Pacific Freight Costs Last Month......

HIGHER!! Grain:

November, 2005

Coal: HIGHER!!

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Join the SIN Club "With shipping's first 'need to know' information portal, Clarkson has made shipping intelligence better than ever

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HIGHER!!Ore:

Ore: HIGHER!! FIRMERCoal:

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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004*Clarkson Average Bulker-Earnings Index

Highlights

Review Review of Baltic Indices. market overview and vessel requirements.....................p.2/3.Iron Ore Australian iron ore exports show impressive growth...p.4/5.Coking Coal Strong growth for Australian coking coal exports in the first three quarters of 2005 ......p.6/7.Steam Coal More strong growth for Indian steam coal imports ...........p.8/9.Wheat & Grain North African wheat imports predicted to rebound ....p.10/12.Minor Bulks Japan likely to break its record for scrap exports................p.13.The Dry Bulk Fleet Nine pages of fleet and freight rate data, plus prices and earnings; fleet forecasts for end 2005...................... p.14-23.Commodity Countdown: The Soybean Trade

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Bahia BlancaR. Pl ate

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P. Boli varNouadhibou

S al danha Bay Richar ds Bay

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Phil adel phiaBalt im or e

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N. Or leans

Por t Car tier

P.O rdaz

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QH DLos A ngel es

Por tl and

P.R uper t

S an Ni col as

HuascoGuayacan

Lytt let on

P. Kembl aNewcastl eGladst one

H ay PointAbbot PointPort Hedl and

Dam pier

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Bunbur y

P. Adelai de

Long Beach

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Vancouver

VostochnyQHD

Dry Trade Trend

Bulks... Est. F'cast Next Year v.1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...

Iron Ore... 392 428 427 402 448 451 481 519 589 644 686 STRONG! 7%Total Coal... 424 454 458 466 524 556 579 632 660 684 706 FIRM.... 3%

Steam Coal 260 284 289 304 350 387 407 453 475 493 506 STEADY 3%Coking Coal 165 170 169 162 174 169 173 179 186 192 200 FIRM... 4%

Grains~... 219 229 226 247 264 260 271 264 273 275 281 STEADY 2%Wheat/Coarse Grain 185 190 187 205 214 207 214 205 213 208 212 STEADY 2%

Soyabean 34 39 40 42 50 54 57 59 60 67 68 STEADY 3%Bauxite/Alumina 54 55 55 54 54 52 55 63 66 69 69 STEADY 0%Phosphate Rock 31 32 31 30 28 29 30 29 30 30 30 STEADY 0%5 MAJOR BULKS 1,120 1,198 1,197 1,199 1,318 1,347 1,416 1,507 1,618 1,703 1,771 FIRM... 4%% Change 2% 7% 0% 0% 10% 2% 5% 6% 7% 5%

Sugar 36 37 38 40 36 41 43 45 46 46 46 STEADY 1%Agribulks 78 80 92 93 90 92 94 96 90 91 96 STRONG! 5%Fertiliser 62 66 66 69 70 72 74 75 76 78 79 STEADY 2%Scrap 46 49 46 45 46 44 45 48 53 55 55 STEADY 0%Cement 55 56 45 45 46 46 45 47 47 49 49 STEADY 0%Coke 15 19 20 18 24 23 23 24 24 25 25 STEADY 1%Pig Iron 12 14 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 STEADY 1%Forest Product 163 166 156 158 161 164 160 163 166 170 174 STEADY 2%Steel Product 200 195 189 174 187 181 186 197 206 216 218 STEADY 1%Others 33 33 33 34 36 37 37 46 53 39 43 STRONG! 10%MINOR BULKS... 699 714 697 686 709 712 718 754 776 783 800 STEADY 2%% Change 0% 2% -2% -2% 3% 0% 1% 5% 3% 1%

TOTAL BULK^... 1,819 1,911 1,894 1,885 2,027 2,059 2,135 2,261 2,395 2,485 2,571 FIRM.... 3%% Change 1% 5% -1% 0% 8% 2% 4% 6% 6% 4%

OTHER DRY... 1,236 1,346 1,368 1,449 1,571 1,593 1,717 1,791 1,914 2,007 2,110 STRONG! 5%% Change 11% 9% 2% 6% 8% 1% 8% 4% 7% 5%

Total Dry Trade Trend

Trade... Est. F'cast Next Year v.1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...

TOTAL DRY... 3,055 3,258 3,262 3,334 3,598 3,652 3,851 4,052 4,308 4,493 4,681 FIRM... 4%% Change 5% 7% 0% 2% 8% 1% 5% 5% 6% 4%Dry Trade Total includes general dry cargo estimate. ~Grain total wheat, coarse grain & soyabean *Forecast; all figures for total Calendar Year.

^Other Dry is dry cargo not carried in bulk, e.g. containerised cargo and breakbulk. Totals include minor producers omitted from table.

Clarkson Research Studies Page 2 Nov-05

Seaborne Trade At A Glance

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

OECD Industrial Prod. & Leading Indicator OECD Growth/Dry Trade Growth

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0

3

6

9

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2005

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%

Industrial ProductionOECD total annual average

Dry Trade

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-4%

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8%

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Leading Indicator

Industrial Production

%

The Market This Month....

Vessel size from CRS Standard as defined in "Shipping Intelligence Weekly".

End Year Iron Ore 70 13% 56 9% Coking Coal 7 4% 6 3% Steam Coal 21 5% 18 4% Grain" 9 3% 2 1% Minor Bulk ^ 26 3% 9 1% Bulk Demand Growth...... 133 6% 91 4%"incl. soyabean ^ including alumina/bauxite/phosphate

End Year Handysize 73.0 2% 74.5 2% Orderbook % Fleet 6% Handymax 61.0 7% 66.2 9% Orderbook % Fleet 23% Panamax inc Combo 82.1 8% 87.9 7% Orderbook % Fleet 17% Capesize inc Combo 111.6 10% 120.8 8% Orderbook % Fleet 31% Total Availability 327.6 7% 349.4 7% Orderbook % Fleet 21%

Demand Growth Supply Growth Supply/Demand Balance*...

FREIGHT COSTS...Supply and Demand growth is in terms of Panamax equivalentsDemand growth = trade growth converted into Panamax vessels based on:

55,000t cargoes x 6 trips a year

Supply growth = net change in bulk fleet divided by 65,000dwt.

* Supply/Demand: +ve number= ship surplus; -ve number= ship deficit

Clarkson Research Studies Nov-05

What's that in terms of no. of Vessels?..

Fleet in Million DWT and % change yoy...

Clarkson Shipping Market Index...

Trade growth in Million mt and % change yoy...

-74

STRONGER!!

200427533560

WEAKER!!

Page 3

The Market OutlookBulker Spot Earnings ($/Day)

2004 2005

2004 2005

2005403329

The Freight Indices October – November ‘05Capesize: After a continuous improvement from August, the BCI hit a recent peak of 5,125 on October 14. Since then, it has been falling slowly and on November 9 it was down to 4,338. Average spot earnings for a modern Capesize slipped to $47,118/day on November 4, compared with $53,031/day on October 14. Panamax: Average spot earnings for a modern Panamax vessel slipped to $16,938/day on November 4, from $19,962/day on October 14. A day earlier the BPI recorded a recent high of 2,874. Since then it has been moving in a lower range and on November 9 it was only 2,493. Handymax: After being above 19,000 for more than ten days in late October, the BHMI followed a similar downward trend. On November 9 it was reported as 18,041. One year time charter rates for 30,000dwt bulk carrier was $12,750/day on November 11, a $1,000 drop from a month ago.

News for the Bulk Market o The OECD’s composite leading indicator (CLI) showed further improvement in September, and with upward revisions to the previous month’s data, the six-month rate of change in the CLI has now increased for five consecutive months. This continuing upturn is an encouraging sign for industrial growth and dry bulk trade. Nevertheless, the performance of different regions varied, with the CLIs for European countries and for Japan continuing to strengthen, while that for the US deteriorated. Macquarie Research estimated that the actual industrial production growth (based on PPP weightings) points to OECD growth of 2.1% y-o-y in August, up slightly from 1.9% in July. o The Indian government has recently approved a new national steel policy which aims to increase production almost threefold in the next 15 years. “The aim of the policy is to make the industry globally competitive, not only in terms of cost, quality and product mix, but also in the areas of efficiency and productivity,” said an official statement. The policy sets a target of producing over 100mt of steel by the 2019/20 financial year, up from 38mt in 2004-05. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%. The increase is designed to narrow the gap in per capita steel consumption between India and the rest of the world, and thus improve the living condition of poorer Indians. The country currently consumes about 33kg/person per year, against the Asian average of 142kg, according to International Iron & Steel Institute figures.

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Capesize

Panamax

Handymax

$/pd

Imports to Import Trend Europe... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* This Year...Belg-Lux 12.1 10.9 10.6 10.1 11.0 10.4 11.0 10.3 10.4 STEADY 1%France 20.7 20.3 19.7 16.7 19.0 19.0 19.4 18.4 19.7 STRONG!! 7%Germany 53.6 38.9 47.6 40.1 44.3 38.9 39.7 38.0 40.6 FIRM 7%Italy 16.4 16.3 17.5 15.8 14.9 15.2 15.9 16.1 16.1 STEADY 0%Netherlands 8.4 7.6 7.0 7.4 7.0 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 STEADY 0%Spain 6.9 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.4 6.7 6.4 SOFTER -5%UK 20.7 17.0 16.7 15.4 13.3 16.1 16.3 16.0 17.1 FIRM 7%Finland 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 FIRM 6%EU15 143.7 121.6 130.1 116.5 120.1 117.5 120.3 117.6 122.5 FIRM 4%Turkey 3.9 3.0 4.1 3.6 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 STEADY -1%TOTAL W. Europe 147.6 125.7 134.5 120.0 126.0 124.6 128.5 126.1 134.5 FIRM 7%% change 11% -15% 7% -11% 5% -1% 3% -2%

Imports to Import Trend Asia... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* This Year...Japan 120.8 120.1 131.7 126.3 129.1 132.1 134.9 135.7 136.0 STEADY 0%% change -5% -1% 10% -4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0%P.R.China 51.8 55.3 70.0 92.4 111.5 148.2 208.1 263.5 300.0 STRONG!! 14%R.o.Korea 33.6 35.5 38.9 45.9 43.3 41.3 41.6 41.6 41.6 STEADY 0%Taiwan 14.2 13.3 14.9 15.6 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.4 15.5 STEADY 1%India 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 WEAKER -11%Pakistan 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 FIRM 5%Malaysia 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 STEADY 2%Indonesia 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 STEADY -2%Philippines 4.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 STEADY 0%TOTAL excl. Japan 108.5 113.5 133.7 162.5 178.8 213.8 274.3 329.5 366.0 STRONG!! 11%% change -9% 5% 18% 22% 10% 20% 28% 20%

Imports to Import Trend Others... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* This Year...Egypt 2.2 2.2 3.4 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.2 STRONG!! 11%Libya 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2 STEADY -3%TOTAL AFRICA 5.0 3.7 5.5 4.9 5.2 6.2 6.7 6.9 7.3 FIRM 6%Bahrain 2.0 1.8 3.3 1.8 2.9 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.4 STEADY 2%Iran 1.7 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.0 1.5 1.7 3.0 2.4 WEAKER -19%Saudi Arabia 3.1 3.2 4.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.7 FIRM 4%Qatar 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 STEADY 0%TOTAL M EAST 7.8 7.9 11.0 10.1 11.8 10.4 11.8 14.0 13.7 STEADY -2%USA (excl. Canada) 8.5 7.4 7.7 6.2 6.9 5.6 5.9 5.5 5.7 FIRM 4%TOTAL N.America 12.3 11.3 11.2 9.3 10.5 9.1 9.8 9.0 9.4 FIRM 4%TOTAL S.America^ 6.7 6.1 5.7 4.7 5.4 7.2 7.6 7.6 8.0 FIRM 5%

Total Import Trend Imports... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* This Year...TOTAL 427 402 448 451 481 519 589 644 686 FIRM 7%% change 0% -6% 11% 1% 7% 8% 13% 9%^ includes Mexican imports

Totals include minor importers omitted from table *Forecast; all figures for total Calendar Year.


Seaborne Iron Ore Trade

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Commentary

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Exports... Iron Ore News2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

PACIFIC...Australia 157.0 157.1 165.8 187.6 207.0 237.0India 32.9 37.3 46.6 55.0 68.1 75.0Peru 3.5 4.4 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.6ATLANTIC...Brazil 160.1 155.7 170.0 184.4 204.7 221.7Canada~ 18.3 17.5 20.3 20.2 20.7 23.1Sweden 16.0 13.7 14.5 16.1 17.4 18.0South Africa 21.5 23.5 25.1 24.1 24.3 27.5Mauritania 11.1 10.1 10.5 9.6 10.6 11.0TOTAL...^ 451 481 519 589 644 686% change... 1% 7% 8% 13% 9% 7%

^ Totals include minor exporters omitted from table. " Forecast; all figures for total Calendar Year. ~ Canadian total excludes exports to US.


Iron Ore Trade (2)

Steel Production & Capesize Freight Rates...

Million Tonnes

Page 5

306321

311 319

348362

347358

427

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589

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mt

FORECAST:Trade set to increase by 7% in 2006.

o Australia's iron ore exports to China fell back to a more "normal" level of 9.7mt in September compared to the record high of 11mt recorded in August, according to China Customs statistics. Still, Australia's September supplies represented a 42% share of the China's import market. India exported 5.7mt of iron ore to China in September, taking a 25% market share and Brazil exported 5.3mt of iron ore for a 23% market share. The final published figure showed that, in the first nine months of 2005 China's iron ore imports totalled 198.93mt. Australia exported 82.1mt, followed by India (52.5mt), Brazil (38.8mt), South Africa (7.6mt) and Russia (2.5mt).

o According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian iron ore exports have risen by a massive 15.2% y-o-y in the first nine months this year, reaching an annualised rate of 237mt.

o Major Chinese steelmakers are calling for the authorities to impose a cap on iron ore imports for 2006. The call follows a meeting of China's top ten steelmakers organised by the National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC) at Baosteel's headquarter in Shanghai. After discussion, steelmakers proposed that iron ore imports not be increased in 2006, and that better order be applied to China's spot iron ore market. This differs with CISA’s forecast that China will need to import at least 40-45mt more iron ore in 2006, compared with around 270mt this year. The aim of the proposed cap is to squeeze out small and "unruly" steel mills from the market. Only after that will proper market order emerge, they believe.

o Rio Tinto is to spend $1.35bn to expand iron ore mining and ship loading capacity in Western Australia. It will raise the capacity of the company’s ports in the Pilbara close to 200mtpy. Some $530m will be spent to increase capacity at the Yandicoogina mine of its wholly owned Hamersley Iron subsidiary from 36mtpy to 52mtpy, making it the largest iron ore mine in Australia. Construction will begin in December and should be completed at the end of 2007, with progressive ramp-up during 2008. Rio Tinto will invest another $690m to expand port facilities at Dampier which will raise capacity to 140mtpy by the end of 2007 from 116mtpy currently. Additional rolling stock and infrastructure to support these increased levels of production will absorb a further $113m.

-15%

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Jan

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Steel Production Index y-o-y % change Cape Earnings y-o-y % change

Trade Weighted Steel Production

Index

Imports to Import Trend Europe... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Belg-Lux 4.2 4.0 3.8 4.2 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.2 STEADY -3%France 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.9 6.4 6.1 6.8 6.5 6.5 STEADY 1%Germany 4.2 3.4 4.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 6.6 6.3 6.8 FIRM 7%Italy 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.8 5.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.3 STEADY 0%Netherlands 5.3 4.5 4.9 5.7 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 STEADY 0%Spain 3.9 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.2 STEADY -1%UK 8.6 8.0 8.5 7.7 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 STEADY 1%EU 43.6 40.0 42.7 41.9 36.8 36.5 39.9 39.4 39.9 STEADY 1%Turkey 4.8 4.1 5.9 2.9 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 STEADY 1%Romania 3.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.8 STEADY -3%TOTAL 52.1 46.0 50.4 47.0 42.9 42.1 45.6 45.4 45.9 STEADY 1%% change 3% -12% 10% -7% -9% -2% 8% 0%

Imports to Import Trend Asia... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Japan 62.8 63.1 65.7 63.7 67.2 67.6 68.5 67.3 67.2 STEADY 0%India 8.5 8.6 11.1 13.0 12.8 14.0 16.0 17.5 19.2 FIRM 10%S.Korea 18.0 17.2 19.6 17.9 20.0 20.3 20.9 20.4 20.4 STEADY 0%Taiwan 6.0 5.8 6.1 7.3 8.6 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.6 STEADY -3%TOTAL 95.4 95.0 102.8 102.2 110.3 113.5 121.1 124.9 130.9 FIRM 5%% change -3% 0% 8% -1% 8% 3% 7% 3%

Imports to Import Trend Others... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Argentina 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 STEADY -1%Brazil 12.9 12.8 13.2 12.0 9.3 12.7 8.8 11.0 12.7 FIRM 16%E.Europe * 4.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 1.8 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.8 STEADY -3%Iran 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 FIRM 3%Africa 3.4 3.0 2.2 2.5 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.7 STEADY 0%* including Romania (see above)

Total Import Trend Imports... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...TOTAL 169 162 174 169 173 179 186 192 200 FIRM 4%% change 0% -4% 8% -3% 2% 4% 4% 3%

Total Export Trend Exports... Est. F'cast Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Australia 83.6 92.4 99.6 106.1 104.4 111.1 116.3 126.0 135.0 FIRM 7%Canada (ex US) 27.9 28.5 27.8 27.3 21.4 22.6 24.5 27.0 32.0 FIRM 19%US (ex Canada) 38.3 25.3 26.3 19.5 15.3 17.1 20.9 21.6 20.0 SOFTER -7%China 4.9 5.2 6.5 11.5 13.3 13.1 5.7 3.4 3.6 FIRM 6%OTHERS 14.5 10.3 13.7 4.6 18.4 14.7 18.3 13.9 9.4 WEAKER!! -32%TOTAL 169 162 174 169 173 179 186 192 200 FIRM 4%Coking coal - hard coal with a quality that allows production of coke suitable to support a blast furnace charge (excludes PCI coal).

Totals include minor importers omitted from the table. *Forecast; all figures for total Calendar Year.


Million Tonnes

Seaborne Coking Coal Trade

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Commentary

Coking Coal News

To Japan...*1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Australia MV 41.90 39.75 42.75 48.10 46.20

China HV 35.53 33.67 36.31 34.20 36.31

Canada MV 40.38 38.36 41.38 46.50 44.65

Canada LV 41.50 39.06 41.94 47.25 47.35

* Export Contract Base Price-Historic prices from IEA

Contract Base Price for Aust. MV = Goonyella; China HV = Huaibei; Canadian MV = Luscar; Canadian LV = Elkview.

Clarkson Research Studies Nov-05Page 7

Coking Coal MarketLong Term Outlook

Contract Prices...

Who's Exporting More?...

US$/ton FOBT

154 154 153159

154 156 157160

165170 169

162

174169

173179

186192

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f

mt

FORECAST:Trade to increase 4% in 2006

o During the first three quarters of 2005, Australia exported 60.7mt hard coking coal, compared to 52.1mt in the same period of last year, according to latest ABS figures. Nevertheless, in September, there was a sharp fall from recent high levels of Australia’s monthly exports of high quality coking coal, and a surge in exports of thermal coal. This may reflect some fall-off in coking coal demand since port stocks also appear to be rising a little at the same time.

o According to Chinese customs statistics, in September, China exported 0.75mt of coke, compared with 0.8mt in August and a much higher volume of 2.06mt in September 2004, which was the highest monthly export volume in 2004. The year-to-date exports were 9.79mt in 2005 compared with 10.37mt of the same period of 2004.

o Russia's Yakutugol is reported to have concluded a new long-term supply contract for coal from Neryungrinsky K9 in Yakutia in eastern Siberia. It will supply Japan with up to 3mtpy of hard coking coal for the next five years. The terms of the new contract to begin next April are similar to those of the existing contract agreed in November 2000, i.e. they require the five Japanese integrated mills plus coke makers Nakayama Steel and Mitsui Mining to take a total of 2.50-2.75mtpy (plus-minus 10% at buyer’s option) between 2006 and 2010. According to the trade statistics of Russia, coking coal exports during January to September 2005 totalled 8.7mt, down 0.6mt (6.1%) from the same period one year ago. Out of that exports to Japan reached 2.4mt, up 0.6mt (33.6%) from the same period one year ago.

o Coking coal export stocks in Australia have risen for the third consecutive month. Metallurgical coal stocks are up from 6.3mt to 6.5mt in September, with the increases continuing to be driven by Queensland. This means metallurgical coal stocks have jumped by more than 60% from a historically low level of 4.0mt in June.

o According to the trade statistics of South Korea, coking coal import to South Korea during the first nine months of 2005 totalled 12.5mt, a 1mt decrease y-o-y. Imports from Australia in the same period were reported as 7.1mt, accounting for 56.6% of the total coking coal imports.

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mt/ month

Australia

USA

Canada

Imports to Import Trend Europe... Est. F'cast. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Belg-Lux 7.1 5.7 6.2 6.6 4.5 5.2 4.8 4.3 3.3 WEAKER -23%France 11.4 10.9 12.4 9.0 11.7 16.6 12.9 13.4 13.4 STEADY 0%Germany 14.0 14.3 18.9 23.6 21.9 28.8 25.9 24.9 25.4 STEADY 2%Denmark 8.1 7.1 6.4 6.9 6.3 9.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 SOFTER -7%Italy 9.4 10.4 11.8 12.8 14.1 15.9 19.6 20.1 20.6 STEADY 2%Netherlands 8.9 7.3 8.3 9.2 8.9 10.1 8.7 8.2 8.2 STEADY 0%Spain 10.6 16.6 17.9 15.5 21.1 18.2 20.4 20.4 20.4 STEADY 0%Portugal 4.6 5.6 5.9 4.8 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.5 STEADY 0%UK 12.6 12.3 15.0 27.8 22.4 25.4 29.8 31.8 29.8 SOFTER -6%EU15 95.6 98.3 112.6 127.2 126.5 149.2 147.4 146.0 146.0 STEADY 0%Turkey 1.9 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.7 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 STEADY 0%OECD EUROPE... 97.5 99.5 114.2 128.5 128.2 154.7 152.8 151.1 151.1 STEADY 0%% change -2% 2% 15% 12% 0% 21% -1% -1%

Imports to Import Trend Asia... Est. F'cast. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Japan... 66.2 70.1 83.8 91.5 95.5 100.7 109.1 109.1 109.1 STEADY 0%India 8.0 11.1 9.9 9.4 10.3 12.0 14.0 20.0 23.0 STRONG!! 15%S.Korea 35.6 37.3 44.1 47.1 50.1 51.4 58.0 61.5 64.0 FIRM 4%Taiwan 31.1 35.3 39.3 40.3 41.9 45.4 47.6 49.6 50.6 STEADY 2%China 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.8 7.6 4.6 3.8 6.8 9.8 STRONG!! 44%Thailand 1.4 2.2 2.6 3.0 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.3 FIRM 9%Malaysia 1.1 0.8 1.6 2.3 5.5 7.5 9.5 10.0 11.0 FIRM 10%Philippines 3.7 5.2 7.2 7.6 6.9 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 STEADY 0%Hong Kong 7.1 6.4 6.1 7.9 7.8 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 STEADY 0%TOTAL... 155.6 169.7 196.1 211.2 230.1 244.7 266.2 281.8 293.3 FIRM 4%% change 3% 9% 16% 8% 9% 6% 9% 6%

Imports to Import Trend Others... Est. F'cast. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Israel 9.6 9.6 9.9 11.4 12.7 12.2 12.5 12.5 12.5 STEADY 0%Chile 3.9 4.3 3.7 2.1 2.3 1.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 WEAKER -8%US (ex Canada) 6.7 7.0 9.6 15.6 13.7 20.6 21.9 24.9 26.4 FIRM 6%Morocco 3.4 3.3 3.9 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 STEADY 0%

Total Import Trend Imports... Est. F'cast. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...TOTAL 289 304 350 387 407 453 475 493 506 STEADY 3%% change 2% 5% 15% 11% 5% 11% 5% 4%

Total Export Trend Exports... Est. F'cast. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This Year...Australia 83.0 79.2 87.1 88.1 99.9 105.0 108.0 108.5 112.0 FIRM....... 3%S.Africa 60.6 62.8 66.9 66.9 66.9 68.7 65.7 65.7 65.7 STEADY 0%China 24.6 29.0 44.6 71.1 63.9 73.3 74.5 73.5 72.5 STEADY -1%Indonesia 47.2 55.3 55.4 66.3 74.2 88.7 105.1 118.1 127.1 FIRM 8%Russia 13.4 16.5 21.7 21.1 26.5 26.5 40.5 41.5 42.0 STEADY 1%Colombia 30.1 29.9 35.6 39.1 34.9 44.4 51.9 57.4 59.4 FIRM....... 3%Venezuela 5.9 6.8 7.9 7.6 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.5 8.5 STEADY -1%TOTAL 289 304 350 387 407 453 475 493 506 STEADY 3% Totals include CIS, Poland & minor exporters; "Forecast; All figures for total Calendar Year. N.B. Thermal coal = Steam Coal.


Million Tonnes

Seaborne Thermal Coal Trade

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Commentary

Steam Coal News

To Japan...*2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Australia NSW... 28.75 34.50 28.75 26.75 45.00

McCloskeySpot Marker Nov-04 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05US$/t 78.05 58.30 57.85 54.90 51.75

US$/GJ 3.11 2.32 2.30 2.19 2.04

MCIS Index ^ 179.30 146.87 132.90 126.12 117.73 ^ Index based on Jan 1991 = 100. Source: McCloskey Coal

* Export Contract Base Price - NSW Benchmark-6700kcal/kg GAD - Historic prices from IEA;


Thermal Coal Market

Page 9

Who's Exporting More?...

Spot Prices...

Contract Prices...

Long Term Outlook...

US$/ton FOBT

0

3

6

9

12

15

3555

135

735

3591

636

100

3628

136

465

3664

736

831

3701

237

196

3737

737

561

3774

237

926

3810

838

292

3847

3

159

184201 206 207

216

242260

284 289304

350

387407

453

493506

475

100

150

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400

450

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1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

e

2006

f

mt

FORECAST :3% growth in steam coal trade expected in 2006

o Chinese steam coal exports in the first three quarters of 2005 reached 46.4mt, suggesting that 2005 full year exports will reach only 60mt, down from around 73mt last year. They are likely to be no more than this in 2006 and may be less, according to Pan Wanze, VP of China Coal at an industry gathering in Beijing. With domestic prices higher than international prices, Pan said that it was unlikely that most exporters would source coal for export. At present the only company able to offer coal under the domestic price is Shenhua, which produces all the coal it exports. China Coal has its own production, but this is all sold out for 2006.

o In early November, port congestion at Newcastle eased significantly, with the number of ships waiting to load coal at the port falling to seven from a peak of more than 30 in mid-October.

o October was another strong month for Indian coal imports, with 3.7mt received, according to sources quoted by McCloskey. This brings year-to-date imports to 33.2mt, compared to 29.8mt for the whole of 2004. Steam coal accounted for 2.1mt in October, the second largest month so far this year. This brings year-to-date imports to 15.6mt against around 14.5mt for the whole of 2004. It is believed that total steam coal imports into India in 2005 will exceed 20mt, growing at least 5.5mt on 2004.

o The Richards Bay Coal Terminal is to expand its capacity to 92 mtpy by July 2008 from 72 mtpy as part of the long-awaited phase five expansion program, the terminal’s shareholders announced on November 2. Most of the new additional capacity is expected to go to black economic empowerment companies. The cost of the 1 billion Rand ($150 million) expansion will be shared by existing shareholders Anglo Coal, Xstrata Coal, Eyesizwe, Ingwe, Kangra Coal, Sasol and Total Coal.

o BHP Billiton’s thermal coal production rose to 24mt in 3Q 2005, compared with 23mt in the previous quarter and 20mt in 1Q 2005, as the firm accelerated its main South African operations and hit record output levels at its US and Colombian operations. Exports from the RBCT, where BHP is a major shareholder, rose to 5.4mt in 3Q 2005, up from 5.1mt in 2Q and 5.1mt in the 1Q. Exports during October and November are also expected to be strong on the back of additional buying from Indian end users.

Australia

USA

S. Africa

Indonesia

mt/month

China

Imports to Import Trend FSU/Europe F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...CIS 3.1 3.3 11.8 6.5 4.7 4.9 8.8 5.1 5.0 STEADY -2%of which Russia 0.9 2.3 6.8 2.3 1.2 0.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 SOFTER -5%EU* 6.2 7.2 6.7 5.9 14.6 16.2 13.6 9.9 10.9 FIRMER 10%Other Europe 4.4 4.8 5.7 6.7 5.2 4.5 6.1 2.4 2.7 FIRMER 13%TOTAL 13.7 15.3 24.2 19.1 24.5 25.6 28.5 17.4 18.6 FIRM....... 7%

Imports to Import Trend Asia F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...Japan 26.5 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.2 25.4 25.0 25.1 25.2 STEADY 0%China 3.6 3.5 3.5 2.4 3.3 2.3 4.9 9.0 5.2 WEAKER!! -42%S.Korea 11.4 12.5 11.4 12.9 12.1 12.4 13.7 11.9 12.7 FIRM....... 7%Taiwan 6.3 5.7 6.5 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.9 STEADY 2%Indonesia 3.7 3.2 3.8 5.9 4.9 5.8 6.1 5.5 5.4 STEADY -2%Philippines 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.8 FIRM....... 4%Malaysia 3.2 3.4 3.3 4.0 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.5 STEADY 0%Bangladesh 0.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 STEADY 0%Pakistan 3.8 3.3 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.5 WEAKER!! -67%Sri Lanka 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 STEADY 0%N.Korea 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 STEADY 0%Thailand 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 FIRMER 10%Vietnam 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 FIRMER 9%TOTAL 69.2 68.3 69.2 67.8 65.7 66.8 70.6 73.2 70.4 SOFTER -4%

Imports to Import Trend Mid East... F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...Iran 5.0 3.6 9.1 8.0 7.6 2.7 2.2 3.8 3.4 WEAKER -11%Iraq 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.3 2.7 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.6 STRONGER!! 33%Yemen 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 FIRM....... 6%Israel 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.1 SOFTER -6%Saudi Arabia 4.8 6.6 6.8 6.3 7.3 8.0 8.3 8.0 8.1 STEADY 1%Syria 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 STEADY 0%Turkey 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.6 1.0 STRONGER!! 67%TOTAL 24.2 26.3 34.1 32.1 32.4 27.7 25.8 28.3 29.2 FIRM....... 3%Grain = Wheat & Coarse Grain. (Coarse Grain = maize (corn), barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, triticale & mixed grain).

Totals include minor importers omitted from tables. Oilseed not included; Crop Year = July/June. "Forecast; all figures for total Crop Year. Source : IGC, USDA.


Grain Imports

Crop Year - Million Tonnes


Long Term Outlook...


Grain Trade News…

o The latest Grain Market Report by the IGC suggests that after two consecutive years of good wheat harvests, North African imports are expected to rebound by more than 1mt to 18.7mt in 2005/06, due to smaller crops in Algeria and Morocco. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to import a similar amount to the previous year, although purchases by Nigeria could reach a new record as consumption continues to climb. The import number for Nigeria was revised, up by 0.4mt from last month, to 3.6mt (3.1mt last year), reflecting strong purchases to date, especially from the US. Iraq is expected to import 3.6mt, up from 2.9mt in last year.

216220

215 218224 221

205

216 219229 226

247

264 260

271264

273 275

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Wheat, Coarse Grain & Soyabean

mt

F'CASTFORECAST :1% increase in 2005

Imports to Import Trend S.America... F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...Brazil 6.9 8.7 8.7 8.7 7.6 7.5 6.5 6.1 6.9 FIRMER 13%Colombia 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 STEADY 3%Ecuador 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 FIRMER 25%Peru 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 FIRM....... 7%Venezuela 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 STEADY 0%TOTAL 17.3 20.2 20.3 20.2 18.7 17.5 17.7 17.3 18.5 FIRM....... 7%

Imports to Import Trend C.America... F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...Cuba 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 STEADY 0%Mexico 9.3 11.1 12.3 14.2 13.2 11.5 11.6 13.0 13.7 FIRM....... 5%Others 10.5 10.8 11.2 13.1 14.5 14.7 12.4 14.1 13.1 SOFTER -7%TOTAL 20.7 22.8 24.7 28.4 28.7 27.0 24.8 28.1 27.7 STEADY -1%

Imports to Import Trend Africa... F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...Egypt 10.3 11.3 10.7 11.3 12.7 11.2 11.4 12.3 12.5 STEADY 2%Algeria 6.4 6.4 6.2 7.7 6.7 7.5 5.9 6.7 7.8 FIRMER 16%Mozambique 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 STEADY 0%Ethiopia 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.7 STRONGER!! 40%Libya 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 FIRM....... 7%Morocco 3.4 4.5 4.7 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.8 4.8 STRONGER!! 26%Sudan 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 WEAKER -14%S.Africa 1.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.4 WEAKER!! -30%Tunisia 2.2 1.8 2.0 3.0 2.9 3.4 1.7 2.0 2.2 FIRMER 10%TOTAL 33.0 35.2 35.4 40.3 41.6 43.0 37.7 44.1 44.1 STEADY 0%

Total Import Trend Imports... F'cast This Year v.

97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...TOTAL 185 193 212 209 212 211 208 211 212 STEADY 0%% change -4% 5% 10% -1% 1% -1% -2% 2%Grain = Wheat & Coarse Grain. (Coarse Grain = maize (corn), barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, triticale & mixed grain).


Grain Imports


Who's Importing More?




Grain Trade News…

o Although, in the market year of 2005/06, Australian wheat exports are likely to benefit from higher production and reduced Argentine competition in Asian and East African markets, this could be offset by smaller purchases in other key markets. China, Pakistan and Iraq, which last year combined to account for a quarter of Australian wheat exports, have reduced purchases to such an extent that Australian exports to these three markets during the first quarter of the trade year were down over 80% y-o-y. As a result exports are not expected to grow significantly, with the IGC forecasting Australian wheat exports at 16.0mt, up from 15.8mt in 2004/05.

-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

EU

CIS & Other

Asia

Mid East

S.America

Africa

N/C.America

TOTAL

Panamax Employment in 2005/06

Inc reased P'Max demand in '05/06 by 3 vessels (basis

55,000t cargoes)

Wheat Trade Trends

Exporters... F'cast This Year v.97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year...

Argentina 9.6 8.9 10.8 11.2 11.4 6.1 7.4 13.1 7.5 WEAKER!! -43%Australia 15.0 16.1 17.3 16.7 16.6 10.9 15.1 15.8 16.0 STEADY 1%Canada 21.0 14.0 18.4 16.9 16.1 9.2 15.6 14.5 16.0 FIRMER 10%EU 13.1 13.7 16.7 14.5 10.8 15.5 10.3 13.0 15.0 FIRMER 15%USA 28.0 29.8 29.8 28.6 26.8 23.2 32.2 28.0 27.0 SOFTER -4%BIG 5 TOTAL 86.6 82.5 92.9 87.9 81.7 64.9 80.5 84.4 81.5 SOFTER -3%Others 12.5 17.2 17.0 13.6 25.0 41.0 21.8 24.6 27.5 FIRMER 12%TOTAL 99.1 99.7 109.9 101.5 106.7 105.9 102.3 109.0 109.0 STEADY 0%

Coarse Grain Trade Trends

Exporters... F'cast This Year v.97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year…

Argentina 13.0 10.8 8.6 12.8 9.6 12.2 10.3 12.9 14.5 FIRMER 12%Australia 2.9 4.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 3.2 5.2 6.6 5.9 WEAKER -11%Canada 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.6 2.5 1.6 3.4 2.9 3.7 STRONGER!! 28%EU 4.0 9.1 12.8 9.7 5.0 6.5 4.3 4.4 5.0 FIRMER 14%USA 44.5 52.5 56.9 55.4 56.5 47.8 51.3 52.3 56.1 FIRM....... 7%BIG 5 TOTAL 68.1 80.4 86.1 86.2 78.8 71.3 74.5 79.1 85.2 FIRM....... 8%China 7.0 3.3 7.2 9.9 6.4 15.0 11.4 5.7 3.0 WEAKER!! -47%Others 8.7 8.6 8.1 11.5 20.5 18.8 19.1 17.1 15.1 WEAKER -12%TOTAL 85.4 93.7 101.9 107.7 105.6 105.1 105.2 102.3 103.2 STEADY 1%

Total Grain Trade Trends

Exporters... F'cast This Year v.97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Last Year…

Argentina 22.6 19.7 19.4 24.0 21.0 18.3 17.7 26.0 22.0 WEAKER -15%Australia 17.9 20.9 21.4 21.4 21.8 14.1 20.3 22.4 21.9 STEADY -2%Canada 24.7 17.2 22.1 20.5 18.6 10.8 19.0 17.4 19.7 FIRMER 13%EU 17.1 22.8 29.5 24.2 15.8 22.0 14.6 17.4 20.0 FIRMER 15%USA 72.5 82.3 86.7 84.0 83.3 71.0 83.5 80.3 83.1 FIRM....... 3%BIG 5 TOTAL 155 163 179 174 161 136 155 164 167 STEADY 2%China 7.0 3.3 7.2 10.4 7.7 16.4 13.8 6.5 4.0 WEAKER!! -38%Others 21.2 25.8 25.1 25.1 45.5 59.8 40.9 41.7 42.6 STEADY 2%TOTAL 185 193 212 209 212 211 208 211 212 STEADY 0%% change 0% 5% 10% -1% 1% -1% -2% 2%Totals include minor exporters omitted from table. Oilseed not included; Crop Year=July/June; "Forecast; all figures for total Crop Year. Source: IGC, USDA


Crop Year - Million Tons


Grain Exports Who's Exporting More?... Grain Trade News


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan-

91Ju

l-91

Jan -

92Ju

l-92

Jan -

93Ju

l-93

Jan -

94Ju

l-94

Jan -

95Ju

l-95

Jan -

96Ju

l-96

Jan -

97Ju

l-97

Jan -

98Ju

l-98

Jan -

99Ju

l-99

Jan -

00Ju

l-00

Jan -

01Ju

l-01

Jan -

02Ju

l-02

Jan -

03Ju

l-03

Jan -

04Ju

l-04

Jan -

05Ju

l-05

Monthly Exports '000t

EU

Australia& Argentina

USA

Grain Export News…

o According to the IGC’s Grain Market Report published in late October, shipments of wheat and wheat flour by the five major exporters in 2005/06 are expected to reach 81.5mt, down from last year's 85.2mt. The US export figure is forecast as 27.0mt, while that for Argentina is reduced to 6.8mt. The export forecast for CIS is 19.6mt, up by 4.5mt from last year.

o Brazil’s 2005/06 corn crop is estimated at 42.5mt, down 3% from last month, but up 21% from last year’s drought affected harvest. Harvested corn area is estimated at 12.8 million hectares, down 2% from last month, but up 12% from last year.

Industrial Indicators Database...

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00OECD OECD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0

AVERAGE Ger'ny Europe USA Japan TOTAL R.o.K. PRC 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.001995 4.9% 1.7% 0.9% 4.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%1996 2.9% -0.1% -1.9% 2.2% -0.3% 8.5% 12.0% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%1997 -1.5% -1.1% 1.3% -6.1% -1.1% 5.1% 21.3% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%1998 -6.9% -2.6% 4.1% -4.5% -0.6% 4.1% 23.5% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%1999 3.2% 3.9% 5.8% 0.8% 4.1% 11.1% 21.5% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%2000 0.0% 2.4% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 11.3% 14.3% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%2001 -0.2% 0.4% 2.9% 3.0% 1.7% 8.4% 13.7% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%2002 3.0% 3.4% 5.0% 4.3% 4.1% 7.9% 10.9% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%2003 3.5% 3.0% 3.3% -6.6% 1.5% -7.0% 5.7% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%2004 -0.5% 0.8% 2.7% 0.4% 1.4% 22.0% 8.8% 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0%

Jul-05 3.0% 0.2% 3.0% -2.2% 0.8% 7.0% 16.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Aug-05 2.1% 1.5% 3.1% 1.6% 2.1% 5.5% 16.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Sep-05 3.3% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.2% 16.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

*End previous month

TotalYear Africa N.Am. Lat.Am Asia Europe Aust PROD. Year Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear MW % Chge

1996 1,015 5,860 2,107 1,623 6,377 1,656 18,639 1996 3,390 653 1,076 1,334 2,093 8,316 2.9%1997 1,106 5,931 2,116 1,909 6,613 1,804 19,757 1997 3,412 678 1,124 1,359 2,069 8,546 2.8%1998 1,043 6,086 2,075 1,843 6,968 1,934 19,949 1998 3,508 661 1,280 1,292 2,124 8,641 1.1%1999 1,095 6,169 2,093 1,966 7,302 2,029 20,655 1999 3,498 628 1,399 1,381 2,209 9,382 8.6%2000 1,178 6,041 2,167 2,221 7,490 2,094 21,191 2000 1,390 2,244 9,669 3.1%2001 1,369 5,222 1,991 2,234 7,613 2,122 20,551 2001 1,284 2,274 9,542 -1.3%2002 1,372 5,413 2,230 2,261 7,753 2,170 21,199 2002 1,301 2,276 9,807 2.8%2003 1,428 5,494 2,275 2,475 8,064 2,198 21,934 2003^ 1,286 2,231 9,900 0.9%2004 1,711 5,110 2,356 2,735 8,433 2,246 22,591 2004^ 1,291 2,253 9,522 -3.8%

*end Sep 05 1,293 3,997 1,777 2,277 6,401 1,677 17,418 04/03 0.4% 1.0%'05/04 % 2% 3% 1% 12% 2% 0% 3% ^ Estimate - year total # total thermal

* Year to Date; Aust = Australasia Source : IAI ('97 Asia data includes China) Source : IEA/BP

EU P.R. R.o. Saudi TradeYear 15 ^ Japan China Korea Taiwan USA India Mexico Brazil Turkey Arabia Iran Index+ MT % Chge

1994 # 151.7 98.3 92.6 33.7 11.6 91.2 19.3 # 10.3 25.7 12.6 2.4 4.5 88.9 # 725.1 -0.3%1995 155.8 101.6 95.4 36.8 11.6 95.2 20.8 # 12.1 25.1 13.2 2.5 4.7 92.2 752.3 3.7%1996 146.6 98.8 101.2 38.9 12.3 94.7 21.8 # 13.2 25.2 13.6 2.7 5.4 91.3 750.0 -0.3%1997 159.9 104.5 108.9 42.5 16.0 98.5 24.6 # 14.3 26.2 14.5 2.5 6.3 97.9 798.9 6.5%1998 159.9 93.5 114.6 40.0 16.8 97.4 23.9 # 14.1 25.8 14.0 2.4 5.6 98.1 777.2 -2.7%1999 155.2 94.2 124.0 41.0 15.9 96.1 23.6 # 15.3 25.0 14.3 2.6 6.0 92.8 788.5 1.4%2000 163.4 106.4 127.2 43.1 16.7 100.7 26.9 # 15.7 27.9 14.3 3.0 6.6 102.2 847.4 7.5%2001 158.5 102.9 150.9 43.8 18.2 89.1 27.3 # 13.6 26.7 15.0 3.4 6.9 101.0 850.0 0.3%2002 158.7 107.7 181.7 45.4 18.3 91.6 28.8 # 14.3 29.6 16.5 3.6 7.3 106.7 902.8 6.2%2003 160.4 110.5 221.1 46.3 18.8 93.7 31.8 # 15.2 31.1 18.3 3.9 7.9 114.5 950.8 5.3%2004 168.3 112.7 272.5 47.5 19.3 98.5 32.6 # 16.7 32.9 20.5 3.9 8.7 124.7 1035.5 8.9%

*end Sep 05 127.8 84.6 253.9 35.3 14.7 69.4 28.4 12.5 23.7 15.5 3.1 7.0 842.7'05/04 % 2% 1% 32% 1% 1% -5% 19% 2% -4% 1% 10% 10% 10.5%

* Year to Date. + Trade Weighted Steel Production Index, basis Jan 2000 = 100. ^EU15 from 1994, EU25 from 2005 Source: IISI

Total TotalYear EU~ USA Arg. Aust. PRC CIS* PROD. EU~ USA Arg. PRC CIS* PROD. MT % Chge

1995 87.7 59.5 9.4 17.0 102.2 60.4 540.4 87.7 284.8 13.4 115.1 81.6 873.9 1,414 6.7%1996 100.0 62.0 15.9 23.7 110.6 64.9 582.2 90.0 209.4 13.4 126.0 62.7 801.7 1,384 -2.1%1997 94.8 67.5 14.8 19.4 123.3 79.6 610.1 106.5 265.8 19.0 141.6 57.1 914.6 1,525 10.2%1998 103.8 69.4 11.5 22.1 109.7 55.5 586.5 110.5 260.6 24.7 117.8 71.5 892.7 1,479 -3.0%1999 96.5 62.7 15.7 24.8 113.9 64.6 584.7 102.4 263.4 21.6 138.0 42.8 884.5 1,469 -0.7%2000 104.4 60.8 16.5 22.2 99.7 63.1 582.3 107.6 273.2 19.5 115.0 52.0 870.9 1,453 -1.1%2001 90.5 53.3 15.3 24.9 93.9 90.6 581.3 107.7 262.0 19.1 123.3 65.7 901.3 1,483 2.0%2002 103.2 44.0 12.3 10.1 90.3 96.1 566.0 106.8 243.8 19.0 131.8 64.2 882.4 1,448 -2.3%2003 106.2 63.8 14.5 25.7 86.5 61.5 554.5 123.4 275.7 16.0 125.9 58.6 911.9 1,466 1.2%2004 136.1 58.7 16.0 20.4 91.0 85.2 623.2 150.5 319.5 23.8 139.7 64.1 1,009.2 1,632 11.3%

for. 2005 122.6 57.1 12.5 23.0 96.0 92.5 609.3 131.5 292.0 22.2 138.0 59.4 952.7 1,562 -4.3%% Change -10% -3% -22% 13% 5% 9% -2% -13% -9% -7% -1% -7% -6%2005/04

Arg=Argentina; Aust=Australia; N & C Am=North & Central America; ~EU25 from '03; *FSU prior to 2001

Wheat=wheat+durum; Coarse Grain=maize(corn), barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, triticale, mixed grain. Source: IGC

Clarkson Research Studies Page i

HARVEST

Nov-05

PRIMARY ALUMINUM PRODUCTIONBY MAIN IMPORTER; '000t

Production

GRAIN PRODUCTION; million tonnesWHEAT PRODUCTION COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION

TOTALGRAIN

GLOBALSTEEL

Industrial Production

Production

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTIONOECD TWH=10x9 KwH

OECD

-7.1%

Electricty

5,900#

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTIONBY MAIN IRON ORE IMPORTER; Million Tonnes

% CHANGE

6,281#5,838#

6,128#

5,970#

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan-

96M

ay-9

6S

ep-9

6Ja

n-97

May

-97

Sep

-97

Jan-

98M

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8S

ep-9

8Ja

n-99

May

-99

Sep

-99

Jan-

00M

ay-0

0S

ep-0

0Ja

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May

-01

Sep

-01

Jan-

02M

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2S

ep-0

2Ja

n-03

May

-03

Sep

-03

Jan-

04M

ay-0

4S

ep-0

4Ja

n-05

May

-05

Sep

-05

% change

EUROPE

U.S.A.

JAPAN

Seaborne Trading Nations GDP Database...

Europe... % Year-On-Year Growth Trend Est. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 This YearFrance 3.4% 3.2% 4.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% 1.5% 2.2% UP BY... 0.7%Germany 2.0% 1.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.1% -0.2% 1.6% 0.8% 1.9% UP BY... 1.1%Italy 1.8% 1.7% 3.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% UP BY... 1.4%Total Eurozone 2.8% 2.7% 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 0.7% 2.0% 1.2% 1.8% UP BY... 0.6%UK 3.2% 3.0% 4.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.5% 3.2% 1.9% 2.2% UP BY... 0.3%Russia -5.3% 6.3% 10.0% 5.1% 4.7% 7.3% 7.2% 5.5% 5.3% DOWN BY... -0.2%Poland 4.8% 4.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 3.8% 5.4% 3.0% 4.0% UP BY... 1.0%Romania -4.8% -1.2% 2.1% 5.7% 5.1% 5.2% 8.3% 5.0% 5.0% NO CHANGETOTAL C&E. Europe... 2.8% 0.4% 4.9% 0.2% 4.4% 4.6% 6.5% 4.3% 4.6% UP BY... 0.3%

Asia..... % Year-On-Year Growth Trend Est. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This YearJapan... -1.0% -0.1% 2.4% 0.2% -0.3% 1.4% 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% NO CHANGEP.R.China 7.8% 7.1% 8.0% 7.5% 8.3% 9.5% 9.5% 9.0% 8.2% DOWN BY... -0.8%R.o.Korea -6.9% 9.5% 8.5% 3.8% 7.0% 3.1% 4.6% 3.8% 5.0% UP BY... 1.2%India 5.8% 6.7% 5.4% 3.9% 4.7% 7.4% 7.3% 7.1% 6.3% DOWN BY... -0.8%Pakistan 3.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.5% 4.1% 5.7% 7.1% 7.4% 6.5% DOWN BY... -0.9%Malaysia -7.4% 6.1% 8.9% 0.3% 4.4% 5.4% 7.1% 5.5% 6.0% UP BY... 0.5%Indonesia -13.1% 0.8% 4.9% 3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% NO CHANGEPhilippines -0.6% 3.4% 4.4% 1.8% 4.4% 4.5% 6.0% 4.7% 4.8% UP BY... 0.1%Singapore -0.8% 6.8% 9.6% -1.9% 3.2% 1.4% 8.4% 3.9% 4.5% UP BY... 0.6%Thailand -10.5% 4.4% 4.8% 2.2% 5.3% 6.9% 6.1% 3.5% 5.0% UP BY... 1.5%Hong Kong -5.0% 3.4% 10.2% 0.5% 1.9% 3.2% 8.1% 6.3% 4.5% DOWN BY... -1.8%Vietnam 5.8% 4.8% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.7% 7.5% 7.0% DOWN BY... -0.5%Taiwan 4.3% 5.3% 5.8% -2.2% 3.9% 3.3% 5.7% 3.4% 4.3% UP BY... 0.9%TOTAL NICs -2.6% 7.3% 7.9% 1.3% 5.3% 3.1% 5.6% 4.0% 4.7% UP BY... 0.7%

Others.. % Year-On-Year Growth Trend Est. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This YearUSA... 4.2% 4.4% 3.7% 0.8% 1.6% 2.7% 4.2% 3.5% 3.3% DOWN BY... -0.2%Canada 4.1% 5.5% 5.2% 1.8% 3.1% 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.2% UP BY... 0.3%TOTAL Africa... 3.2% 2.8% 3.3% 4.1% 3.6% 4.6% 5.3% 4.5% 5.9% UP BY... 1.4%Saudi Arabia 2.8% -0.7% 4.9% 0.5% 0.1% 7.7% 5.2% 6.0% 4.7% DOWN BY... -1.3%Iran 2.7% 1.9% 5.1% 3.7% 7.5% 6.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.4% DOWN BY... -0.3%TOTAL M EAST~... 4.0% 2.0% 4.9% 3.7% 4.2% 6.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.0% DOWN BY... -0.4%Argentina 3.8% -3.4% -0.8% -4.4% -10.9% 8.8% 9.0% 7.5% 4.2% DOWN BY... -3.3%Brazil 0.1% 0.8% 4.4% 1.3% 1.9% 0.5% 4.9% 3.3% 3.5% UP BY... 0.2%Chile 3.2% -0.8% 4.5% 3.4% 2.2% 3.7% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% DOWN BY... -0.1%Colombia 0.6% -4.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% NO CHANGEMexico 4.9% 3.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 4.4% 3.0% 3.5% UP BY... 0.5%Peru -0.7% 0.9% 2.9% 0.2% 4.9% 4.0% 4.8% 5.5% 4.5% DOWN BY... -1.0%Venezuela 0.3% -6.0% 3.7% 3.4% -8.9% -7.7% 17.9% 7.8% 4.5% DOWN BY... -3.3%TOTAL Latin America.. 2.3% 0.4% 3.9% 0.5% 2.2% 5.6% 4.1% 3.8% DOWN BY... -0.3%

Global GDP % Year-On-Year Growth Trend Indicators... Est. Next Year v.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 This YearIndustrial Nations... 2.6% 3.5% 3.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 3.3% 2.5% 2.7% UP BY... 0.2%Developing Nations... 3.0% 4.0% 5.8% 4.1% 4.8% 6.5% 7.3% 6.4% 6.1% DOWN BY... -0.3%CIS… -3.5% 5.1% 9.1% 6.3% 5.3% 7.9% 8.4% 6.0% 5.7% DOWN BY... -0.3%WORLD GDP Growth... 2.8% 3.7% 4.7% 2.4% 3.0% 4.0% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% NO CHANGESources : IMF Totals include minor importers omitted from table * Estimate "forecast for calendar year. ~Includes Turkey

Clarkson Research Studies Page ii Nov-05

Iron Ore Load Ports Database...

Loading PortsMax.

Country/Port Terminal/Berth Draft* LOA Beam WLTHC Vessel Load... Load T/DayNorwayNarvik New Ore Pier No.5 27.5 350.0 60.0 26.0 350,000 36 hours + 1 hr each 5000tKirkenes A/S Stavanger 15.0 303.0 48.0 15.0 130,000 50,000Mo-i-Rana Gullsmedvik 11.4 250.0 32.2 13.8 80,000 24,000

SwedenLulea LKAB 11.2 270.0 40.0 60,000 28,000Oxelosund Ore Berth 15.3 265.0 41.0 15.0 100,000 28,000

MauritaniaNouadhibou Point Central 16.2 310.0 47.0 14.0 170,000 70,000-100,000t 40,000

100-135,000t 50,000135,000t+ 60,000

South AfricaSaldanha Bay Iscor Export 21.3 350.0 60.0 26.8 365,000 <150,000t 110,000

150-200,000t 120,000CanadaPort Cartier QCM, N. Dock 16.6 304.8 53.0 12.8 220,000 60,000Seven Islands IOCC Dock No.2 17.7 338.0 54.6 17.0 280,000 <135,000t 60,000

135-140,000t 90,000140-160,000t 95,000160-200,000t 100,000

BrazilPonta do Ubu Samarco 16.4 308.0 54.0 18.5 200,000 >50,000t 60hrs;+1000tph after Sepetiba Ferteco 24.0 350.0 54.0 19.0 365,000 40,000Tubarao CVRD Berths 1/2 15.2 350.0 55.0 16.5 200,000 60,000t 65hrs; + 6000tph after

20.0 400.0 62.0 28.5 365,000 60,000t 65hrs; + 6000tph afterPonta da Madeira CVRD, Berth 1 22.3 339.5 60.0 29.5 365,000 120,000t 40hrs;+5000tph afterGIT MBR, Guaiba Is. 24.0 350.0 54.0 19.0 365,000 40,000ChileGuayacan CMP Export 16.2 315.0 50.0 18.0 200,000 40,000Huasco Guacolda No 2 22.0 335.0 55.0 18.0 274,000 50,000Huasco Santa Barbara 14.7 314.0 47.5 200,000 50,000

PeruSan Nicolas MINPECO 17.9 327.0 49.0 12.3 230,000 20,000 Fines

40,000 L/PVenezuelaPuerto Ordaz CVG Ferrominera 9.6/12.8 274.3 42.0 17.7 130,000 72 hrsBoca Grande Transfer Station 30.0 350.0 55.0 17.2 230,000 40,000

AustraliaDampier East Intercourse 18.7 325.0 52.0 24.1 325,000 110,000

Parker Point 18.0 303.0 45.0 160,000 90,000Port Hedland Nelson Point 19.0 325.0 55.0 247,000 90,000

FinucaneIsland 17.5 325.0 48.0 170,000 80,000Port Latta Savage River 15.3 261.0 38.5 14.9 116,000 48,000Port Walcott Cape Lambert 1 20.0 355.0 50.2 20.0 275,000 100,000

Cape Lambert 2 20.0 335.0 55.0 322,141 120,000IndiaVisakhapatnam Outer ore berth 16.5 270.0 42.0 165,000 35,000Mormugao Berth 9 12.8 335.0 50.0 21.8 275,000 22,000t + 12,000t anchorageMadras Barathi Dock 2 16.2 274.0 47.8 150,000 20,000New Mangalore Ore Berth 12.5 245.0 75,000 15,000Paradip Ore Loader 12.0 260.0 40.0 75,000 15,000

* Depth Alongside May Be Different.

Clarkson Research Studies Page iii Nov-05

Typical Charterparty Max. Dimensions (m)

Coal Load Ports Database...

Loading PortsAir/ Max.

Country/Port Terminal/Berth Draft LOA Beam Draft Vessel Load... Load T/DaySouth AfricaRichard's Bay Coal Terminal 17.7 314.0 50.0 21.6 190,000 Up to ...... 50,000CanadaPrince Rupert Ridley Island Inc. 20.0 325.0 50.0 200,000 Up to ...... 50,000Vancouver Roberts Bank, Berth 1 21.0 350.0 53.0 19.6 230,000 Up to ...... 50,000

Neptune Terminal 16.3 300.0 50.0 180,000 Up to ...... 40,000U.S.A.Philadelphia Greenwich Pier 124 12.2 259.1 40.8 13.7 85,000 20,000Baltimore CCSC Coal Pier 14.3 350.0 53.0 17.0 120,000 35,000

Bayside Coal Pier 14.3 305.0 48.0 35,000Curtis Bay Coal Pier 12.8 277.0 41.2 18.3 137,000 30,000

Norfolk N & W Pier No.6 15.2 None 53.3 22.5 180,000 35,000Newport News Pier No. 9 15.2 305.0 45.7 22.8 170,000 25,000

Dominion Terminal 15.2 304.0 49.9 24.0 180,000 25,000Mobile McDuffie terminal 13.7 292.6 48.8 19.5 100,000 25,000Davant Electro-Coal Transfer 13.7 290.0 45.0 18.5 150,000 25,000Myrtle Grove IMT 13.7 305.0 52.0 20.0 150,000 25,000Burnside Bulk Marine Terminal 13.7 305.0 46.0 23.8 140,000 20,000AustraliaHay Point Berth 2 16.5 300.0 50.0 232,000 Up to ...... 50,000Dalrymple Bay 16.3 320.0 55.0 200,000 Up to ...... 50,000Abbot Point 17.0 297.0 47.5 187,000 Up to ...... 50,000Gladstone Barney Point 15.5 245.0 43.5 17.7 90,000 Up to ...... 45,000

RG Tanna Coal 17.5 320.0 55.0 24.0 232,000 Up to ...... 45,000Port Kembla No.1 Coal Berth 12.5 290.0 45.0 100,000 35,000

No.2 Coal Berth 15.3 290.0 45.0 232,000 35,000Newcastle Kooragang Is. 15.2 290.0 47.0 25.4 170,000 35,000

Port Warratah 15.2 290.0 47.0 20.0 180,000 35,000ColombiaPuerto Bolivar 17.0 300.0 47.5 184,000 Up to ...... 50,000Cartagena Carbones del Caribe 12.8 228.0 32.3 13.0 60,000 12,000Barranquilla Cementos del Caribe 10.7 200.0 30.0 12.5 60,000 8,000Pt. Drummond Anchorage 20.0 47.2 15.0 200,000 25,000Puerto Prodeco Anchorage 18.3 170,000 20,000Santa Marta Carbonsan 13.7 270.0 41.0 15.5 75,000 20,000Tolu Anchorage, self load 50,000Venezuela Maracaibo Bulk Wayuu 11.4 40.0 14.6 75,000 25,000IndonesiaBalikpapan Coal Export Terminal 12.5 235.0 32.2 70-75,000 25,000Banjarmasin Anchorage no restriction 211,000 20,000Kotabaru Nth.Pulau Laut Term. 14.0 320.0 43.0 17.2 150,000 25,000Tanah Merah Coal Terminal 11.0 250.0 35.0 40,000

Anchorage, Adang Bay 15.0 150,000 10,000Tanjung Bara Coal Terminal 17.2 320.0 50.0 21.0 211,000 Up to ...... 45,000Teluk Bayur 10.5 200.0 30.0 35,000ChinaQinhuangdao 15.5 280.0 33.0 175,000 30,000Rizhao 16.2 280.0 42.0 175,000 30,000Xingang 13.5 230.0 80,000 10,000PolandGdansk North Port 15.0 280.0 50.0 150,000 SCALESwinoujscie Gornikow 12.8 240.0 35.0 80,000 SCALERussiaVostochny 15.0 314.6 43.0 120,000 20,000MozambiqueMaputo Matola 11.3 250.0 30.5 45,000 10,000

Clarkson Research Studies Page iv Nov-05

Typical Charterparty Max. Dimensions (m)

Minor Bulk Trades

Agribulk & Trade Trend Softs... 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* Next Year v. This

Raw Sugar 20.1 19.6 22.7 20.4 22.6 22.3 22.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 STEADY 1%White Sugar 16.7 18.0 17.2 16.0 18.5 21.1 22.2 21.2 21.3 21.4 STEADY 1%

Total Sugar 37 38 40 36 41 43 45 46 46 46 STEADY 1%Soymeal 34.0 37.0 39.0 39.0 35.5 37.2 42.4 42.3 45.4 46.3 STEADY 2%

Oilseed/meal 27.7 28.3 29.1 28.3 31.7 28.9 25.6 20.6 19.8 24.1 STRONG!! 22%Rice 18.5 27.0 24.7 22.8 24.4 27.8 27.6 26.8 25.7 25.2 WEAKER!! -2%

Agribulks + 80 92 93 90 92 94 96 90 91 96 STRONG!! 5%Phosphates 14.5 15.0 15.7 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.7 STEADY 0%

Potash 22.9 21.8 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.4 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.8 STEADY 3%Sulphur 17.8 19.7 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.9 STEADY 2%

Urea 10.3 9.7 10.7 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.4 STRONG!! 6%Fertiliser (ex PhosRock) 66 66 69 70 72 74 75 76 78 80 STEADY 3%TOTAL... 183 196 202 197 205 211 216 212 215 222 FIRM....... 3%% Change... 0% 7% 3% -3% 4% 3% 2% -2% 1%

Metals & Trade Trend Minerals... 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* Next Year v. ThisCoke 19 20 18 24 23 23 24 24 25 25 STEADY 1%Pig Iron 14 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 STEADY 1%Scrap 49 46 45 46 44 45 48 53 55 55 STEADY 0%DRI/HBI 4 4 5 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 STRONG!! 11%Salt 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 STEADY 0%Manganese Ore 6 6 6 7 7 7 15 23 8 8 STEADY 0%Cement 56 45 45 46 46 45 47 47 49 49 STEADY 0%TOTAL... 170 156 153 164 162 161 179 191 183 184 STEADY 1%% Change... 0% -8% -2% 8% -1% -1% 11% 7% -5%

Manufactures Trade Trend1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* Next Year v. This

Steel Product 195 189 174 187 181 186 197 206 216 218 STEADY 1%Forest Product 166 156 158 161 164 160 163 166 170 174 STEADY 2%TOTAL 361 345 332 348 345 346 360 373 386 392 STEADY 2%% Change... 0% -5% -4% 5% -1% 0% 4% 4% 3%

Specified Trade TrendMinor Bulk... 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* Next Year v. ThisTOTAL... 714 697 686 709 712 718 754 776 783 797 STEADY 2%% Change... 0% -2% -2% 3% 0% 1% 5% 3% 1%+ Agribulks = Soymeal, Oilseed/meal, Rice; Totals may include tonnage moved in non-bulk vessels. DRI/HBI = Direct Reduced Iron/Hot Briquetted Iron.Fertiliser = Potash, Urea, Sulphur & Processed Phosphates (DAP, MAP, TSP). Excludes Phos. Acid + Phos. Rock. *Forecast; all figures for total Calendar Year.


Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Million Tonnes

Long Term Outlook Commentary

Million Tonnes

615606605

597603

659

697699714

697686

709712718

754

776783

800

575

600

625

650

675

700

725

750

775

800

825

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(e)

2006

(f)

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

mt m.dwt

F'cast

Ship supply 10-60K dwt

Reduced scrapping and steady deliveries increase supply in 2005

Minor bulk demandleft hand axis

o Japan is certain to break 2004’s record 6.4mt of scrap exports this year, sources quoted by SBB report. Japanese customs statistics show that total exports for the first seven months this year reached 4.39mt. Annualised, this would take 2005 calendar year exports to 7.5mt. Considering seasonal fluctuations and current weak demand, it is still believed that total exports will break the 7mt barrier.

o India imported 1.4mt of ferrous scrap from Europe in 1H 2005. That represents about a 250% increase y-o-y, according to figures from the German scrap federation (BDSV) presented at the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) conference in Milan in late October.

Total Bulk End Year m. DWT 12 Month Trend End

Fleet.. 2002 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v. Last 2005Fleet Size 294.6 302.3 322.4 333.6 335.8 337.5 339.8 340.9 LARGER!! 7% 345.1Deliveries 14.3 11.6 19.7 11.3 13.6 15.3 17.3 18.4 STEADY…. 1% 23.1Scrapping 6.0 3.8 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 LARGER!! 9% 0.9Combos 1.5 4.0 5.3 5.0 4.0 5.1 4.2 4.5 SMALLER!! -17% 4.5Laid-up 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 LARGER!! 16% 0.4Storage 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 STEADY 0% 0.3Trading Fleet 295.5 305.8 327.1 338.0 339.2 342.0 343.4 344.8 LARGER!! 7% 349.0Orderbook 30.6 48.5 66.8 68.8 68.3 68.1 67.4 65.6 STEADY…. 3%Orderbook % Fleet 10% 16% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 19%

Handysize End Year m. DWT 12 Month Trend End

10-40,000 dwt 2002 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v. Last 2005Fleet Size 72.4 71.6 72.9 73.7 73.8 74.1 74.1 74.1 STEADY…. 2% 74.4Deliveries 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 SMALLER!! -12% 2.0Scrapping 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 SMALLER!! -33% 0.4Combos 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SMALLER!! -36% 0.0Laid-up 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 LARGER!! 73% 0.1Storage 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY 0% 0.1Trading Fleet 72.3 71.5 72.8 73.5 73.6 73.8 73.9 73.9 STEADY…. 2% 74.2Orderbook 3.3 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 STEADY…. 0%Orderbook % Fleet 5% 6% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6%

Handymax End Year m. DWT 12 Month Trend End

40-60,000 dwt 2002 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v. Last 2005Fleet Size 54.2 57.0 61.0 63.6 64.4 64.6 64.9 65.2 LARGER!! 8% 66.3Deliveries 4.4 3.3 4.1 2.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 LARGER!! 17% 5.5Scrapping 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY…. 4% 0.2Combos 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 LARGER!! 100% 0.1Laid-up 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Storage 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Trading Fleet 54.2 57.1 61.0 63.7 64.6 64.7 65.0 65.3 LARGER!! 8% 66.4Orderbook 7.8 10.7 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.5 13.4 12.9 SMALLER!! -9%Orderbook % Fleet 14% 19% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20%

Panamax End Year m. DWT 12 Month Trend End

60-80,000 dwt 2002 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v. Last 2005Fleet Size 74.5 75.6 81.3 84.5 85.2 85.5 86.0 86.2 LARGER!! 7% 87.2Deliveries 4.2 1.4 5.7 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 SMALLER!! -18% 5.7Scrapping 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2Combos 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 LARGER!! 9% 0.9Laid-up 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY 0% 0.1Storage 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY 0% 0.1Trading Fleet 74.9 75.9 81.9 85.0 85.6 86.1 86.4 86.8 LARGER!! 7% 87.9Orderbook 6.9 13.3 14.2 12.8 13.2 13.3 12.9 12.6 SMALLER!! -13%Orderbook % Fleet 9% 18% 17% 15% 16% 16% 15% 15%

Capesize End Year m. DWT 12 Month Trend End

80,000 dwt+ 2002 2003 2004 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct This Year v. Last 2005Fleet Size 93.5 98.1 107.2 111.8 112.4 113.3 114.8 115.5 LARGER!! 10% 117.1Deliveries 4.1 5.4 7.9 4.6 5.3 6.3 7.5 8.1 LARGER!! 11% 9.8Scrapping 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Combos 0.9 3.4 4.3 4.2 3.3 4.1 3.4 3.5 SMALLER!! -21% 3.5Laid-up 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY 0% 0.1Storage 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY 0% 0.1Trading Fleet 94.1 101.3 111.4 115.8 115.4 117.3 118.0 118.8 LARGER!! 9% 120.5Orderbook 12.6 20.4 33.6 36.9 36.4 36.7 36.4 35.4 LARGER!! 16%Orderbook % Fleet 14% 21% 31% 33% 32% 32% 32% 31%YTD figures are shown for Deliveries and Scrapping. Fleet totals are metric tonnes and net of miscellaneous changes, which are not listed above. Total = vessels over 1


End: m. DWT

End: m. DWT

Bulkcarrier Fleet

End: m. DWT

End: m. DWT

End: m. DWT

Handy/Handymax Fleet Trends

Panamax Fleet Trends

Capesize Fleet Trends


Bulkcarrier FleetCommentary

Commentary

Commentary

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Combos as % of Panamax fleetOrderbook as % of Panamax fleet

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Combos as % of Capesize fleetOrderbook as % of Capesize fleet

13 new Handymaxes were reported to have been delivered during October. As for Handysizes, there were six deliveries. Two Handysize vessels were sold for scrap in October. In addition, one Handysize was reported as being lost at sea. Now the Handymax sector has a fleet size of 1,380 ships of 65.2m dwt and the Handysize fleet includes 2,770 ships of 74.1m dwt. There were three new orders placed for Handymax vessels during October, making the sector�s orderbook now total 242 ships of 12.9m dwt. The Handysize newbuilding market also saw five new orders placed in the same month. Scrap & Delivery Watch � Year To 1st November 2005 Handymax vessels: 2 scrapped 80 delivered Handysize vessels: 8 scrapped 52 delivered

Three new Panamaxes were delivered during October, adding an extra 0.3m dwt to the fleet. So far this year, no ships have been sold for scrap. These changes have taken the fleet size to 86.2m dwt, consisting of 1,212 ships. 53% of the current fleet capacity is under 10 years old, while 23% of the fleet capacity is over 20 years old. Again, there were no new orders placed for Panamaxes during October. The total orderbook is now 167 vessels of 12.6m dwt. This represents 14.6% of the current fleet by deadweight. Scrap & Delivery Watch � Year To 1st November 2005 Panamax vessels: 0 scrapped + 2 combos

59 delivered + 0 combos

There were nine reported new deliveries during October, adding an extra 1.4m dwt capacity to the fleet. No demolitions happened during the month. As such the fleet stayed at 720 vessels of 115.5m dwt, 10% up y-o-y. 52% of current fleet capacity is aged below 10 years, with only 14% aged over 20 years old. There were another three new orders for Capesizes placed during October. The Capesize orderbook now consists of 242 ships of a cumulative 35.4m dwt. This represents 34% of the current fleet capacity, but 213% of the capacity of the fleet aged over 20 years. Scrap & Delivery Watch � Year To 1st November 2005 Capesize vessels: 1 scrapped + 2 combos 51 delivered + 0 combos

Bulk Fleet No. vessels No. vessels Fleet Growth %

Profile End of Year: End of Month: Year on Year2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 237 239 242 241 241 241 241 242 242 STEADY…. 0%15,000/19,999 369 361 356 357 358 358 359 359 359 STEADY…. 1%20,000/24,999 499 484 478 479 479 479 478 478 476 STEADY…. 0%25,000/29,999 773 768 787 790 791 792 794 795 796 STEADY…. 1%30,000/34,999 366 370 391 405 405 408 411 411 411 LARGER!! 5%35,000/39,999 479 470 479 483 483 483 485 485 486 STEADY…. 2%Total Handysize 2,723 2,692 2,733 2,755 2,757 2,761 2,768 2,770 2,770 STEADY…. 2%40,000/44,999 468 465 467 466 466 466 466 466 466 STEADY…. 0%45,000/49,999 458 466 476 481 481 482 482 482 482 STEADY…. 1%50,000/59,999 248 296 359 396 404 418 421 427 432 LARGER!! 25%Total Handymax 1,174 1,227 1,302 1,343 1,351 1,366 1,369 1,375 1,380 LARGER!! 7%60,000/69,999 456 452 454 454 454 454 454 454 454 STEADY 0%70,000/79,999 603 620 694 730 736 745 749 756 758 LARGER!! 11%Total Panamax 1,059 1,072 1,148 1,184 1,190 1,199 1,203 1,210 1,212 LARGER!! 7%80,000/89,999 30 30 34 38 40 41 42 45 46 LARGER!! 39%90,000/99,999 19 22 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 STEADY…. 4%100,000/119,999 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 STEADY 0%120,000/159,999 232 228 228 228 228 227 227 228 228 STEADY 0%160,000/199,999 253 279 314 330 333 334 338 344 346 LARGER!! 12%200,000/254,999 37 39 46 49 49 51 52 52 53 LARGER!! 23%255,000/319,999 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 LARGER!! 60%320,000 &+ 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 STEADY 0%Total Capesize 591 617 668 692 697 700 706 716 720 LARGER!! 10%

TOTAL > 10,000 5,547 5,608 5,851 5,974 5,995 6,026 6,046 6,071 6,082 STEADY…. 5%

Combo Fleet No. vessels No. vessels Fleet Growth %


Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 STEADY 0%15,000/19,999 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 STEADY 0%20,000/24,999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 025,000/29,999 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 STEADY 0%30,000/34,999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 035,000/39,999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Handysize 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 STEADY 0%40,000/44,999 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 STEADY 0%45,000/49,999 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 STEADY 0%50,000/59,999 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 SMALLER!! -14%Total Handymax 19 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 SMALLER!! -6%60,000/69,999 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 STEADY 0%70,000/79,999 32 31 31 30 30 29 29 27 27 SMALLER!! -13%Total Panamax 37 36 36 35 35 34 34 32 32 SMALLER!! -11%80,000/89,999 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 SMALLER!! -11%90,000/99,999 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 STEADY 0%100,000/119,999 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 SMALLER!! -15%120,000/159,999 9 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 SMALLER!! -11%160,000/199,999 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 STEADY 0%200,000/254,999 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 STEADY 0%255,000/319,999 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 SMALLER!! -60%320,000 &+ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Capesize 60 60 55 53 53 53 53 51 51 SMALLER!! -12%

TOTAL > 10,000 119 116 111 108 108 106 106 102 102 SMALLER!! -11%Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.


Bulkcarrier Fleet Profiles

Bulk Fleet Million Dwt Million Dwt Fleet Growth %


Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 STEADY…. 0%15,000/19,999 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 STEADY…. 1%20,000/24,999 11.5 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 STEADY…. 0%25,000/29,999 21.3 21.2 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 STEADY…. 2%30,000/34,999 12.0 12.1 12.8 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 LARGER!! 5%35,000/39,999 18.1 17.7 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 STEADY…. 2%Total Handysize 72.4 71.6 72.9 73.7 73.7 73.8 74.1 74.1 74.1 STEADY…. 2%40,000/44,999 19.9 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 STEADY…. 0%45,000/49,999 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.6 22.6 STEADY…. 1%50,000/59,999 13.0 15.5 18.8 20.9 21.3 22.0 22.2 22.5 22.8 LARGER!! 26%Total Handymax 54.3 57.1 61.0 63.2 63.6 64.4 64.6 64.9 65.2 LARGER!! 8%60,000/69,999 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 STEADY70,000/79,999 44.5 45.8 51.4 54.3 54.8 55.4 55.7 56.1 56.2 LARGER!! 10%Total Panamax 74.5 75.6 81.3 84.3 84.7 85.3 85.6 86.0 86.2 LARGER!! 6%80,000/89,999 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.9 LARGER!! 39%90,000/99,999 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 STEADY…. 4%100,000/119,999 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 STEADY120,000/159,999 33.6 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.0 33.0 33.1 33.1 STEADY…. 0%160,000/199,999 43.7 48.3 54.4 57.3 57.8 58.0 58.7 59.7 60.1 LARGER!! 13%200,000/254,999 8.0 8.4 9.9 10.5 10.5 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.3 LARGER!! 23%255,000/319,999 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 LARGER!! 70%320,000 &+ 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 STEADYTotal Capesize 93.5 98.1 107.2 111.1 111.8 112.4 113.3 114.8 115.5 LARGER!! 10%

TOTAL > 10,000 294.7 302.3 322.5 332.3 333.9 336.0 337.6 339.8 340.9 LARGER!! 7%

Combo Fleet Million Dwt Million Dwt Fleet Growth %


Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 STEADY15,000/19,999 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 STEADY20,000/24,99925,000/29,999 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 STEADY30,000/34,99935,000/39,999Total Handysize 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY40,000/44,999 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 STEADY45,000/49,999 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 STEADY50,000/59,999 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 SMALLER!! -14%Total Handymax 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 SMALLER!! -6%60,000/69,999 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 STEADY70,000/79,999 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 SMALLER!! -13%Total Panamax 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 SMALLER!! -11%80,000/89,999 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 SMALLER!! -11%90,000/99,999 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 STEADY100,000/119,999 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 SMALLER!! -15%120,000/159,999 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 SMALLER!! -12%160,000/199,999 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 STEADY200,000/254,999 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 STEADY255,000/319,999 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 SMALLER!! -60%320,000 &+Total Capesize 8.2 8.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 SMALLER!! -17%

TOTAL > 10,000 12.0 11.7 10.5 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.7 9.7 SMALLER!! -15%Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.


Bulkcarrier Fleet Profiles

Bulk Fleet % Fleet No of Vessels Fleet Ratios

Profile Age Profile Age Profile Nov % Fleet/ O'bk/

20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 2005 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 60% 8% 6% 15% 11% 146 19 14 36 27 242 68% 8%15,000/19,999 72% 5% 5% 12% 6% 259 18 17 43 22 359 77% 6%20,000/24,999 59% 8% 11% 19% 3% 280 39 51 90 16 476 67% 6%25,000/29,999 51% 8% 9% 19% 13% 408 64 70 149 105 796 59% 7%30,000/34,999 56% 8% 0% 13% 23% 231 33 1 52 94 411 64% 25%35,000/39,999 71% 13% 6% 5% 6% 347 61 29 22 27 486 84% 5%Total Handysize 60% 8% 7% 14% 11% 1671 234 182 392 291 2,770 69% 9%40,000/44,999 43% 21% 21% 13% 2% 199 100 99 59 9 466 64% 3%45,000/49,999 14% 6% 16% 48% 16% 67 28 78 231 78 482 20% 22%50,000/59,999 9% 4% 3% 8% 76% 40 16 12 36 328 432 13% 377%Total Handymax 22% 10% 14% 24% 30% 306 144 189 326 415 1,380 33% 54%60,000/69,999 55% 24% 16% 5% 1% 248 107 72 24 3 454 78%70,000/79,999 7% 3% 12% 35% 43% 54 20 94 262 328 758 10% 223%Total Panamax 25% 10% 14% 24% 27% 302 127 166 286 331 1,212 35% 39%80,000/89,999 28% 2% 11% 15% 43% 13 1 5 7 20 46 30% 636%90,000/99,999 12% 0% 24% 24% 40% 3 6 6 10 25 12% 733%100,000/119,999 50% 10% 0% 10% 30% 5 1 1 3 10 60% 17%120,000/159,999 27% 21% 38% 15% 0% 61 47 86 34 228 47%160,000/199,999 7% 10% 9% 33% 42% 24 33 31 113 145 346 16% 151%200,000/254,999 9% 42% 8% 9% 32% 5 22 4 5 17 53 51% 107%255,000/319,999 25% 50% 25% 0% 0% 2 4 2 8 75% 167%320,000 &+ 0% 25% 25% 50% 0% 1 1 2 4 25% 500%Total Capesize 16% 15% 19% 23% 27% 113 109 135 168 195 720 31% 109%

TOTAL > 10,000 39% 10% 11% 19% 20% 2392 614 672 1172 1232 6,082 49% 28%

Combo Fleet % Fleet No of Vessels Fleet Ratios


20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 2005 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 100% 1 1 100%15,000/19,999 100% 1 1 100%20,000/24,999 25,000/29,999 100% 1 1 100%30,000/34,999 35,000/39,999 Total Handysize 100% 3 3 100%40,000/44,999 100% 3 3 0%45,000/49,999 14% 86% 1 6 7 100%50,000/59,999 100% 6 6 100%Total Handymax 44% 56% 7 9 16 100%60,000/69,999 60% 40% 3 2 5 100%70,000/79,999 81% 4% 15% 22 1 4 27 85%Total Panamax 78% 9% 13% 25 3 4 32 88%80,000/89,999 38% 63% 3 5 8 38%90,000/99,999 17% 83% 2 10 12 0%100,000/119,999 9% 91% 1 10 11 9%120,000/159,999 50% 25% 25% 4 2 2 8 75%160,000/199,999 11% 89% 1 8 9 0%200,000/254,999 100% 1 1 100%255,000/319,999 100% 2 2 0%320,000 &+ Total Capesize 18% 14% 45% 20% 4% 9 7 23 10 2 51 31%

TOTAL > 10,000 43% 19% 26% 10% 2% 44 19 27 10 2 102 62%Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.


Bulkcarrier Fleet Size/Age Profile

Bulkcarrier Fleet Size/Age Profile

Bulk Fleet % Fleet Million Dwt Fleet Ratios


20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 2005 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 61% 8% 6% 14% 11% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 3.0 69% 8%15,000/19,999 73% 5% 5% 12% 6% 4.7 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 6.4 78% 6%20,000/24,999 59% 8% 10% 19% 3% 6.5 0.9 1.1 2.1 0.4 11.0 67% 5%25,000/29,999 51% 8% 9% 19% 14% 11.1 1.8 1.9 4.2 3.0 22.0 59% 7%30,000/34,999 56% 8% 0% 13% 23% 7.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 3.1 13.4 64% 25%35,000/39,999 71% 13% 6% 4% 5% 13.0 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 18.3 84% 5%Total Handysize 60% 9% 6% 13% 11% 44.7 6.6 4.7 10.0 8.1 74.1 69% 9%40,000/44,999 42% 21% 22% 13% 2% 8.4 4.3 4.3 2.5 0.4 19.9 64% 3%45,000/49,999 14% 6% 16% 48% 16% 3.1 1.3 3.6 10.8 3.7 22.6 20% 23%50,000/59,999 10% 4% 3% 8% 76% 2.2 0.9 0.6 1.9 17.3 22.8 13% 379%Total Handymax 21% 10% 13% 23% 33% 13.7 6.4 8.5 15.2 21.4 65.2 31% 64%60,000/69,999 53% 24% 17% 6% 1% 15.9 7.2 4.9 1.7 0.2 29.9 77% 1%70,000/79,999 7% 3% 12% 34% 44% 4.0 1.4 6.8 19.3 24.7 56.2 10% 229%Total Panamax 23% 10% 14% 24% 29% 20.0 8.6 11.8 20.9 24.9 86.2 33% 44%80,000/89,999 28% 2% 11% 15% 44% 1.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.7 3.9 30% 626%90,000/99,999 12% 24% 24% 40% 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.3 12% 741%100,000/119,999 52% 10% 9% 29% 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 62% 15%120,000/159,999 25% 21% 38% 15% 8.4 6.9 12.7 5.1 33.1 46%160,000/199,999 7% 10% 9% 32% 42% 4.4 6.0 5.2 19.3 25.3 60.1 17% 147%200,000/254,999 9% 42% 7% 10% 32% 1.1 4.8 0.8 1.1 3.6 11.3 52% 103%255,000/319,999 24% 53% 23% 0.5 1.2 0.5 - 2.2 77% 176%320,000 &+ 27% 24% 48% 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.3 27% 465%Total Capesize 14% 17% 18% 24% 28% 16.3 19.3 20.6 27.4 31.8 115.5 31% 99%

TOTAL > 10,000 28% 12% 13% 22% 25% 94.7 41.0 45.6 73.5 86.2 340.9 40% 48%

Combo Fleet % Fleet Million Dwt Fleet Ratios


20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 20+ 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 2005 15 yrs+ 15 yrs+Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 100% 0.01 0.01 100%15,000/19,999 100% 0.02 0.02 100%20,000/24,99925,000/29,999 100% 0.03 0.03 100%30,000/34,99935,000/39,999Total Handysize 100% 0.1 0.1 100%40,000/44,999 100% 0.1 0.1 100%45,000/49,999 14% 86% 0.0 0.3 0.3 100%50,000/59,999 100% 0.3 0.3 100%Total Handymax 47% 53% 0.4 0.4 0.8 100%60,000/69,999 60% 40% 0.2 0.1 0.3 100%70,000/79,999 82% 4% 15% 1.7 0.1 0.3 2.1 85%Total Panamax 79% 9% 13% 1.9 0.2 0.3 2.4 87%80,000/89,999 37% 63% 0.2 0.4 0.7 37%90,000/99,999 17% 83% 0.2 1.0 1.2 17%100,000/119,999 10% 90% 0.1 1.1 1.2 10%120,000/159,999 50% 28% 22% 0.6 0.3 0.2 1.1 78%160,000/199,999 11% 89% 0.2 1.4 1.5 11%200,000/254,999 100% 0.2 0.2 100%255,000/319,999 100% 0.6 0.6 100%320,000 &+Total Capesize 18% 20% 42% 17% 4% 1.1 1.3 2.7 1.1 0.2 6.5 37%

TOTAL > 10,000 35% 20% 31% 11% 2% 3.4 1.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 9.7 55%Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.


Fleet No. vessels No. vessels Current Orderbook for

Profile End of Year: End of month: Oct % Delivery in:2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2005 Fleet 2005 2006 2007+

Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 11 8 3 15 15 15 15 15 14 6% 2 7 515,000/19,999 8 8 14 19 19 18 18 17 17 5% 5 9 320,000/24,999 4 1 13 15 17 16 16 16 18 4% 2 9 725,000/29,999 33 31 30 34 36 34 33 32 32 4% 4 12 1630,000/34,999 50 80 84 76 68 65 66 68 67 16% 6 31 3035,000/39,999 11 14 17 25 24 23 21 21 21 4% 2 6 13Total Handysize 117 142 161 184 179 171 169 169 169 6% 21 74 7440,000/44,999 10 11 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 2% 1 3 645,000/49,999 23 21 10 19 21 23 21 21 21 4% 1 6 1450,000/59,999 119 170 248 236 234 229 221 220 211 49% 22 92 97Total Handymax 152 202 266 265 265 262 252 251 242 18% 24 101 11760,000/69,999 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0% 270,000/79,999 90 174 186 175 167 173 174 169 165 22% 16 65 84Total Panamax 92 176 188 177 169 175 176 171 167 14% 18 65 8480,000/89,999 5 35 79 89 88 89 91 90 89 193% 4 43 4290,000/99,999 2 3 8 22 22 22 22 22 22 88% 5 17100,000/119,999 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10% 1120,000/159,999160,000/199,999 55 79 83 95 89 88 90 90 86 25% 7 41 38200,000/254,999 12 16 33 34 34 32 31 30 29 55% 1 7 21255,000/319,999 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 125% 10320,000 &+ 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 125% 5Total Capesize 74 133 219 256 249 247 250 248 242 34% 12 96 134

TOTAL > 10,000 435 653 834 882 862 855 847 839 839 14% 75 336 409

Fleet m. DWT m. DWT Current Orderbook for

Profile End of Year: End of month: Oct % Delivery in:2002 2003 2004 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2005 Fleet 2005 2006 2007+

Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 6% 0.0 0.1 0.115,000/19,999 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 5% 0.1 0.2 0.120,000/24,999 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 3% 0.0 0.2 0.225,000/29,999 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 4% 0.1 0.3 0.430,000/34,999 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 16% 0.2 1.0 1.035,000/39,999 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 4% 0.1 0.2 0.5Total Handysize 3.3 4.2 4.7 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 6% 0.5 2.0 2.240,000/44,999 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2% 0.0 0.1 0.245,000/49,999 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 4% 0.0 0.3 0.750,000/59,999 6.3 9.2 13.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.0 12.0 11.5 50% 1.2 5.0 5.3Total Handymax 7.8 10.7 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.5 13.4 12.9 20% 1.3 5.4 6.260,000/69,999 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0% 0.170,000/79,999 6.8 13.2 14.1 13.2 12.6 13.1 13.2 12.8 12.5 22% 1.2 4.9 6.4Total Panamax 6.9 13.3 14.2 13.4 12.8 13.2 13.3 12.9 12.6 15% 1.4 4.9 6.480,000/89,999 0.4 2.9 6.6 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.4 188% 0.3 3.6 3.590,000/99,999 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 90% 0.5 1.6100,000/119,999 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 9% 0.1120,000/159,999160,000/199,999 9.5 13.8 14.6 16.7 15.7 15.5 15.9 15.9 15.1 25% 1.2 7.2 6.7200,000/254,999 2.5 3.3 6.8 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 53% 0.2 1.4 4.4255,000/319,999 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 135% 3.0320,000 &+ 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 127% 1.7Total Capesize 12.6 20.4 33.6 38.1 36.9 36.4 36.7 36.4 35.4 31% 1.8 12.8 20.9

TOTAL > 10,000 30.6 48.5 66.8 70.7 68.8 68.3 68.1 67.4 65.6 19% 4.9 25.1 35.6Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.

Clarkson Research Studies Page 20

Bulkcarrier Fleet Orderbook

Nov-05

Bulker Fleet Geared

Details .... Dwt Years Knots t/day LOA Beam Draft Grain %

Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 12,439 21.0 13.6 19.5 133.7 20.3 8.21 14,880 67%15,000/19,999 17,940 22.4 14.4 24.9 150.8 22.6 9.2 22,202 81%20,000/24,999 23,038 19.5 14.3 26.2 162.3 24.2 9.8 29,464 91%25,000/29,999 27,607 17.7 14.4 28.8 173.8 25.4 10.0 35,587 95%30,000/34,999 32,649 17.6 14.5 31.7 182.0 26.7 10.6 41,873 92%35,000/39,999 37,671 20.7 14.4 32.1 189.1 28.3 10.9 46,385 84%Avg Handysize 26,758 19.4 14.3 28.3 169.3 25.1 9.9 33,822 1 40,000/44,999 42,600 17.4 14.4 30.4 189.4 30.5 11.3 56,167 95%45,000/49,999 46,786 10.4 14.5 30.3 191.1 31.2 11.6 61,348 96%50,000/59,999 52,804 5.7 14.6 35.1 194.7 32.1 12.0 67,486 77%Avg Handymax 47,256 11.3 14.5 31.4 191.6 31.2 11.6 61,304 1 60,000/69,999 65,934 19.4 14.4 37.1 226.4 32.3 13.0 78,953 11%70,000/79,999 74,174 7.3 14.4 36.4 226.4 32.4 13.7 87,504 5%Avg Panamax 71,088 11.8 14.4 36.7 226.4 32.3 13.4 84,189 0 80,000/89,999 85,779 9.8 14.4 43.4 234.8 37.3 13.5 96,845 4%90,000/99,999 92,622 8.6 14.5 44.9 241.6 42.1 13.1 109,580 100,000/119,999 109,490 17.7 14.4 52.8 248.0 41.5 15.3 118,442 120,000/159,999 145,256 15.6 14.2 50.2 271.9 43.3 16.9 160,050 160,000/199,999 173,693 7.7 14.5 54.4 289.2 45.5 17.6 189,649 200,000/254,999 213,692 11.4 13.9 55.8 309.6 50.9 18.3 202,109 255,000/319,999 277,762 18.0 13.4 57.7 327.5 56.0 21.0 191,487 13%320,000 &+ 333,141 12.1 15.7 87.1 336.3 58.6 23.0 183,160 Avg Capesize 160,351 10.9 14.3 52.3 280.2 44.7 17.1 171,087 1%

TOTAL > 10,000 56,058 15.1 14.4 33.3 198.8 30.2 11.9 65,698 62%

Combo Fleet % of

Details Dwt Years Knots t/day LOA Beam Draft Grain Bulk Flt

Total < 10,00010,000/14,999 13,360 24.2 10.0 16.0 121.7 22.9 7.3 0%15,000/19,999 15,183 28.4 13.5 23.7 155.1 21.3 7.0 14,023 0%20,000/24,99925,000/29,999 26,440 27.3 15.0 35.5 220.9 22.9 11.1 34,533 0%30,000/34,99935,000/39,999Avg Handysize 18,328 26.6 12.8 25.1 165.9 22.4 8.5 24,278 0%40,000/44,999 43,463 18.8 14.5 27.0 189.6 30.4 11.6 48,161 1%45,000/49,999 47,925 17.3 14.5 34.5 186.6 32.0 12.8 49,982 1%50,000/59,999 54,517 22.7 15.3 40.0 206.9 32.2 12.6 65,832 1%Avg Handymax 49,560 19.6 14.8 36.5 194.8 31.8 12.5 55,585 1%60,000/69,999 65,495 20.3 13.6 28.4 225.6 32.2 13.3 58,205 1%70,000/79,999 76,159 21.5 14.2 45.0 240.7 32.2 14.2 84,914 3%Avg Panamax 74,493 21.3 14.1 42.4 238.3 32.2 14.1 81,468 3%80,000/89,999 82,856 16.2 14.0 36.8 247.7 32.2 14.8 88,599 15%90,000/99,999 96,453 14.4 13.8 43.8 243.7 38.6 14.5 99,060 32%100,000/119,999 110,445 9.6 15.7 53.0 243.7 41.7 15.9 121,933 52%120,000/159,999 137,082 17.2 14.5 58.7 262.0 45.1 16.2 148,716 3%160,000/199,999 168,592 14.6 14.5 53.8 286.8 45.0 18.5 168,046 3%200,000/254,999 225,162 26.7 17.3 313.3 50.0 20.2 2%255,000/319,999 305,867 17.8 13.8 67.2 340.0 57.0 22.0 179,037 20%320,000 &+Avg Capesize 127,178 14.5 14.5 49.2 259.9 41.4 16.2 125,032 7%

TOTAL > 10,000 95,272 17.8 14.4 44.3 240.2 36.4 14.7 97,577 2%All parameters as of current month...

Fleet statistics shown are in metric tonnes in metric tonne divisions.


Avg. Size/Age Speed/Cons Dimensions (m/cu.m)

Bulkcarrier Fleet Key Parameters

Avg. Size/Age Speed/Cons Dimensions (m/cu.m)

Capesize % Change...

Market... 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jul Aug Sep Oct 3 Mths 6 Mths

Freight Rates (Avg.$/t)145k Tub-Rott (ore) 4.40 7.48 5.35 5.38 11.81 19.65 10.94 11.14 14.54 16.50 51% -23%145k Tub-Japan (ore) 6.86 11.84 8.54 8.44 19.43 33.01 20.50 21.00 26.20 30.63 49% -18%137k R.Bay-Rott (coal) 5.56 9.74 6.73 6.54 14.69 20.44 10.56 11.13 14.15 16.25 54% -22%135k Q'land/Rott (coal) 7.56 13.47 9.61 8.76 19.43 27.51 15.60 15.06 17.45 19.63 26% -30%Avg.Earn.$ pd (1990-built) 9,988 19,955 12,592 11,391 34,479 58,463 26,454 26,205 35,966 43,365 64% -28%150k dwt 1 yr t/c, $ pd, 10,800 17,090 12,802 12,318 26,421 49,139 31,100 28,938 34,050 38,125 23% -33%150k dwt, 3 yr t/c, $ pd 12,504 14,996 12,762 12,609 18,689 34,444 27,500 24,000 27,300 27,250 -1% -28%Prices, $m. Year EndNewbuilding 170K 35.0 40.5 36.0 36.3 48.0 64.0 62.0 59.5 59.0 59.0 -5% -13%5 yr old. 150K 25.0 26.0 22.7 24.4 37.0 54.3 54.3 52.6 51.3 51.3 -5% -15%10 yr old. 150K 17.5 19.0 16.5 20.5 32.0 46.0 45.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 -11% -27%

Panamax % Change...

Market.. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jul Aug Sep Oct 3 Mths 6 Mths

Freight Rates (Avg.$/t)55k. USGulf-Rdam 11.83 14.81 13.29 12.56 20.69 36.08 22.05 20.30 22.33 24.39 11% -37%52k. USG-Jpn HSS 18.19 23.00 20.22 21.04 35.05 58.91 38.98 36.20 40.90 46.50 19% -24%52k. Nopac-Japan 11.69 15.98 13.42 12.59 25.47 37.07 20.96 21.68 24.34 25.26 21% -24%63k, R.Bay-Sp.Med (coal) 7.75 11.11 9.08 8.25 16.70 25.44 13.61 12.90 14.29 15.44 13% -33%Avg.Earn.$ pd (1998-built) 10,819 8,946 7,284 19,111 33,824 14,756 13,528 15,754 18,893 28% -40%1 yr t/c, $ pd 6,973 9,754 7,513 7,261 13,122 22,777 12,350 11,250 13,350 14,563 18% -42%3 yr t/c, $ pd 7,256 8,872 7,281 7,065 9,566 13,779 10,900 9,125 10,700 11,875 9% -22%Prices, $m. Year endNewbuilding 75K 22.0 22.5 20.5 21.5 27.0 36.0 38.5 37.0 36.5 36.0 -6% -10%5 yr old. 73K 16.8 16.0 14.0 17.0 28.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 36.5 36.5 -6% -21%10 yr old 69K 12.0 11.8 9.5 11.5 20.0 31.0 28.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 -4% -28%

Handymax % Change...


Freight Rate (Avg $/d)40K, Cont-Far E. 8,135 9,985 9,095 10,619 17,413 34,100 24,550 18,950 20,310 23,875 -3% -33%40K, Atlantic R/V 6,847 8,474 8,541 8,582 15,459 29,093 18,300 14,025 15,870 19,938 9% -37%40K, Far E.-Cont 5,566 8,513 7,377 5,618 12,369 23,178 10,450 10,938 16,060 14,775 41% -28%40K, Pacific R/V 5,869 8,883 7,832 6,570 14,400 25,991 12,850 13,563 17,860 16,188 26% -30%Avg.Earnings $ pd 6,604 8,964 8,211 7,847 14,907 28,088 16,538 14,369 17,525 18,694 13% -33%1 yr t/c, $ pd 6,577 8,759 8,142 7,532 12,883 25,242 15,450 15,438 16,550 16,375 6% -32%3 yr t/c, $ pd 7,034 8,477 8,410 7,941 9,970 15,220 13,650 12,625 12,900 12,688 -7% -25%Prices, $m. Year endNewbuilding 50K 20.0 20.5 18.5 19.0 24.0 30.0 34.0 31.0 30.5 30.5 -10% -13%5 yr old 45K 16.0 15.3 13.3 14.3 20.0 29.0 28.5 28.0 28.0 29.0 2% -21%10 yr old 42-45K 11.5 12.0 9.8 10.5 15.5 22.5 20.0 19.5 24.5 24.5 23% -14%

Handysize % Change...


Freight Rate (Avg.$/d)17K MPP 5,600 6,829 7,204 6,321 6,958 11,321 15,350 15,350 15,350 14,500 -6% -8%20-25K Geared MPP 6,135 8,427 7,238 6,488 8,890 12,763 16,000 16,000 16,000 16,000 0% 2%30K, 6 mth t/c, $ pd 5,275 7,018 6,837 6,556 9,999 19,270 13,700 12,875 13,960 14,138 3% -34%30K, 1 yr t/c, $ pd 5,561 7,108 6,807 6,743 9,043 17,298 13,400 13,000 13,850 13,938 4% -30%30K, 3 yr t/c, $ pd 6,323 7,569 7,284 7,198 7,969 11,750 11,450 11,563 11,500 11,688 2% -18%Prices, $m. Year end (*20 year old from 2002)30K, Newbuilding 15.5 15.0 14.5 15.0 18.0 23.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 0% 0%27K,1977 built/20 YR old* 2.0 2.0 1.3 3.0 5.5 9.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 13% -28%25-30K, 5 year old 11.5 12.0 11.0 11.3 14.5 21.5 24.8 25.0 27.0 26.0 5% 4%25-30K, 10 year old. 8.0 9.0 7.8 8.5 10.8 17.0 19.0 18.8 22.0 19.5 3% -7%


Commercial Bulkcarrier Data

Annual

Annual

Monthly

Monthly

Monthly

Annual Monthly

Annual

Capesize Cape T'port Cost Costs... Oct Av. Av. Av. Sep Oct This Month...

Total Freight % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005W.Aust/Rott Iron Ore 77.42 16.73 22% 0.64 1.34 1.86 1.25 1.48 HIGHER!! 18%Narvik/Rott Iron Ore 56.96 8.74 15% 2.53 4.97 8.11 6.43 7.75 HIGHER!! 21%Tubarao/Rott Iron Ore 56.51 16.50 29% 1.08 2.37 3.95 2.92 3.32 HIGHER!! 13%Tubarao/Japan Iron Ore 66.04 30.63 46% 0.73 1.69 2.86 2.27 2.66 HIGHER!! 17%W.Aust/Japan Iron Ore 51.20 11.70 23% 1.12 2.66 3.91 2.65 3.18 HIGHER!! 20%Bolivar/Rotterdam Coal 33.50 16.75 50% 1.20 2.68 4.45 4.32 4.73 HIGHER!! 9%Q'land/Rotterdam Coal 58.63 19.63 33% 0.64 1.43 2.02 1.28 1.44 HIGHER!! 12%R.Bay/Rotterdam Coal 53.75 16.25 30% 0.93 2.08 2.90 2.01 2.30 HIGHER!! 15%Q'land/Japan Coal 137.63 12.63 9% 1.24 2.74 4.17 2.79 3.20 HIGHER!! 15%Cape Ore T'port Cost 1.29 2.75 4.37 3.35 3.97 HIGHER!! 18%Cape Coal T'port Cost 1.03 2.29 3.62 2.58 2.85 HIGHER!! 10%

Panamax P'max T'port Cost Costs... Oct Av. Av. Av. Sep Oct This Month...

Total Freight % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005Bolivar/ARA Coal 58.25 16.75 29% 1.57 2.83 4.56 3.60 4.13 HIGHER!! 15%Newcastle/Cont. Coal 60.50 22.50 37% 0.86 1.80 2.70 2.76 3.10 HIGHER!! 12%Newcastle/Japan Coal 55.31 17.31 31% 1.59 3.47 5.09 3.57 4.04 HIGHER!! 13%R.Bay/Sp.Med Coal 52.94 15.44 29% 1.17 2.40 3.74 2.21 2.39 HIGHER!! 8%USGulf/Rott Maize 124.14 20.14 16% 2.59 4.26 7.43 3.47 4.15 HIGHER!! 20%USGulf/Japan Maize 150.50 46.50 31% 2.28 3.80 6.39 4.44 5.05 HIGHER!! 14%Nopac/Japan Wheat 159.26 25.26 16% 2.80 5.66 8.24 5.41 5.61 FIRMER 4%P'max Coal T'port Cost 1.42 2.84 4.42 2.94 3.30 HIGHER!! 12%P'max Grain T'port Cost 2.49 4.39 7.18 4.48 4.96 HIGHER!! 11%

Handymax H'max T'port Cost Costs... Oct Av. Av. Av. Sep Oct This Month...

Total Freight % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005Rott/Taiwan Scrap 265.38 50.38 19% 3.34 4.40 7.20 4.97 5.09 STEADY 2%USEC/Turkey Scrap 249.31 34.31 14% 4.38 5.96 9.20 6.01 6.39 HIGHER!! 6%Newcastle/Japan Coal 64.28 26.28 41% 3.43 4.89 7.23 5.02 6.13 HIGHER!! 22%Australia/India Coal 159.01 34.01 21% 3.78 5.47 8.15 5.59 6.90 HIGHER!! 24%Delivered cost= C&F price (sum of freight & commodity cost) prices avg. month. '%'= freight cost as % of Delivered Cost. Commodity costs based on following assumptions:Iron Ore- CONTRACT PRICE $/t 145,000t (FE=64% equivalent). Australia= Hamersley fines; Brazil= Itabira fines. Steam Coal - SPOT BASIS source CWI (low range FOB) B'var 6,450kcal/kQ'Land 6500kcal/kg (ex Glad.); S.Afr. 6200kcal/kg; USG 6950kcal/kg; N'castle 6300kcal/kg. Coking coal SPOT BASIS (Q'land/Japan Cape) ex Glad. 31-4% vol 0.7%S 135,000tGrain-$/t (FOB source IGC 54,500t parcel). Gulf-US No.3 Yellow maize; Nopac-Western White wheat FOB Pac; Scrap - source Metal Bulletin basis HMS1 33,500t parcel.


Delivered Cost $/t Transport Cost ($ per '000t/m)

Transport CostsTransport Cost By Ship Size



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$ per kilo Tonne-Mile *...

Cost in a H.max

Cost in a P'max

Cost in a Cape

Capesize…In October, transport costs increased notably for all the routes we cover. The Narvik/Rotterdam iron ore route continued to lead the way, with transport cost rising by 21% to $7.75 per 1,000t/mile. Cape coal transport cost increased by 10% to $2.85 per 1,000 t/mile. Panamax… Panamax costs also showed significant increases during October, as coal transport costs and grain transport costs rose by 12% and 11% on last month respectively. The cost of transporting maize US Gulf/Rotterdam increased by 20% over last month. Handymax… Handymax costs rose too, influenced by the larger vessel sectors. Scrap shipping costs made a modest advances while coal transport costs increased by over 20%.

Commodity Countdown

The fourth quarter is the boom season for US soybean exports. It accounts for about a half of US soybean ex-ports for the whole marketing year. Needless to say, it has been a major support to the shipping industry. However, so far this marketing year, the export peak has not reached the levels of previous years. What made this happen? New market year - a hard beginning Earlier this year, hurricanes caused significant disruption to US Gulf ports and their supporting barge sys-tems, which then created severe logis-tical problems for grain and soybean

exports. This is reflected in our Graph of the Month, which shows the export of US soybeans on a weekly basis. It illustrates the point that weekly exports so far this marketing year are lower than those in past two years. Exports did not start to pick up until October 6, when port and barge operations got back to normal levels. However, just one week later, bird flu made its presence felt, creating a dark shadow over the poultry industry, and consequently, over soybean imports. Its impact was most evident in the EU. By the week ending October 27, accumulated US exports to EU were only 32% of the figure registered at

the same time last year. Ample supplies Nevertheless, this year, the US soybean crop provided well, thanks to good weather during harvesting. Last month, the USDA forecasted that exports for the 2005/06 marketing year would reach 30.3mt. If that volume is realised, then the United States’ status as No. 1 soybean exporter would remain unchallenged. Meanwhile, harvests in Brazil and Argentina, the world’s second and third largest soybean

exporters, are also believed to be quite good, helping maintain ample supplies. Consequently, it is unlikely that the availability of soybeans will become an issue as the marketing year pro-gresses. So it is not very surprising to see that as prices drop, in response to the bird flu induced weakening of demand, import levels have been fur-ther restricted as buyers have seen an opportunity by holding back on pur-chases for as long as they could. But if the bird flu factor is limited or short term and buyers have mis-read the market things could change rap-idly. Traders and ship owners could well see the benefits of the peak in US soybean exports delayed until later in the season. Sunshine after the rain From past experience, for example the BSE crisis, we know that the im-pact of bird flu could be short lived and that it might not be long before there is a recovery in meat demand, and in the demand for soybean and other feed grains to support it. This is especially true when the global econ-omy is performing well. So, once soybean prices have reached bottom and the threat from bird flu is rolled back, then buyers will return to the market and exports will rebound. And, as usual, there will be sunshine after the rain.

An Eventful Year for Soybean Exports

Graph of the Month

US Soybean Weekly Net Sales

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ek1

9

we

ek2

1

we

ek2

3

we

ek2

5

Source: Clarkson Research Services

m. tonnes

2005/062004/052003/04

Dry Bulk Trade Outlook, November 05 Managing Director Martin Stopford Published by: Publisher Cliff Tyler Clarkson Research Services Ltd. Editor Jin-Hyun Bae St. Magnus House, Analyst Cheng Zhang 3, Lower Thames Street, Research Services Steve Gordon LONDON EC3R 6HE, England. Production Preet Patel Tel: (44) (020) 7334 3134 Dry Cargo R.G.J.Poyntz Fax: (44) (020) 7623 0539 Capesize N.P.Collins Telex: 8812927 CLTNKA G Coal R. Elphick Grain M.G.Grimwade E-mail: [email protected] Panamax D.Brough Web-site: http://www.clarksons.net Handymax S.D.Emmott http://www.crsl.com Freight derivatives I.Bland

Dry Bulk Trade Outlook is published twelve times a year. It reviews dry bulk supply & demand, commodity news and developments in the markets. There is also a monthly analysis of the fleet & orderbook, split into twenty size groups. It is available on subscription at a price of £440 a year, plus postage. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this review, no liabil-ity can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission of Clarkson Research Studies.

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Dry Bulk 200511