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Dynamics in gpu market . - Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur?. Jon Peddie Research. Agenda – What the Roadmaps Say. Market dynamics. Strong Market Good Growth. PC Platforms. Graphics Chips. The igp. Integrated Graphics Processor. GPU Segments . Basic Intel PC Architecture. System memory - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Jon
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DYNAMICS IN GPU MARKET
- Is the discrete GPU a dinosaur?
1
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Jon Peddie ResearchFocus and emphasis on Digital Technology, Multi Media, and
Graphics
Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and
financiers
Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies
Product testing and benchmarking
• The Business of Multimedia and Graphics
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Agenda – What the Roadmaps Say
The end of the IGP
The introduction of the EPG & HPU
The end of the discrete GPU?
The big future for discrete GPUs
Offsetting factors
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h MARKET DYNAMICS
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Strong Market Good Growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
PCs (M units)Graphics (M units)DJIA
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PC Platforms
20002001200220032004200520062007 20082009201020112012 2013201420150
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 Desktop vs. Notebook PC growth
Desktop PCsNotebook PCs
M units
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Graphics Chips
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Desktop vs. Notebook GPU growth
Total graphics semiconductorsDesktopNotebook
M units
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h THE IGPIntegrated Graphics Processor
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GPU Segments PC
Desktop
Discrete
IGP
Notebook
Discrete
IGP
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IntelProcessor
All that other stuff:USB, CD\DVD, HDD, audio, PCI, parallel serial, 1394, keyboard, IR, etc.
Integrated Graphics Processor ( IGP)
Unified Memory architecture (UMA)
The interface: PCI Express
System memoryHigh-speed
SDRAMFSB
VGA, DVI,
Display Port
South Bridge
GraphicsProcessorUnit GPU)
NorthBridge
Memory controlle
r
Basic Intel PC Architecture
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hIGP Shipments
Q1'
04
Q3'
04
Q1'
05
Q3'
05
Q1'
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Q3'
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Q1'
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Q3'
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Q1'
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Q3'
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Q1'
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Q3'
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Q1'
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Q3'
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Q1'
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Q3'
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Q1'
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Q3'
12
Q1'
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Q3'
13
0
10
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30
40
50
60
70
80
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100 Total DT & NB IGP
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h THE END OF THE IGP
Don’t be sad – it’ll be OK
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INTRODUCTION OF THE EPG & HPUThe Integrated Processor Graphics chip
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First Generation
The first versions of this new design can be found in Intel’s Clarksdale i5 processor, a four-core CPU with an IGP in a multichip package.
Clarksdale i5 First EPG
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Introducing the EPG
The Integrated PROCESSOR Graphics Clarksdale’s graphics are UMA With the memory controller embedded within the
CPU there is a tighter coupling and a higher bandwidth capability.
Thus Clarksdale has good performance at nominal screen resolutions (i.e., 1280 x 1024.)
Ivy Bridge will be much better, Haswell even more
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Performance of EPG
Intel i5 661
AMD 945+890GX
Intel QuardCore ...
AMD 4850e+780GX
Win
dow
7 6
4 bi
tVi
sta
32 b
it
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
4734
2690
1408
1045
Futuremark Vantage* Higher is better
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hDesktop EPG Replaces IGP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -
20
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60
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180 Desktop Embedded/Integrated Components (M units)
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hNotebook EPG Replaces IGP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
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400
Notebook Embedded/Integrated Components (M units)
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hPC Segments
Desktop Notebook
Workstation (Professional)
Mainstream(Consumer & Enterprise)
Performance(Multimedia Consumer)
Enthusiast(Gamer)
Value & Nettop(Enterprise & Consumer)
Enthusiast/Workstation(Gamer/Professional)
Ultrathin(Consumer)
Thin & Light(Consumer & Enterprise)
Desktop Replacement(Enterprise & Consumer)
Netbook(Consumer)
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hPC Segments Graphics
DesktopNotebook
Workstation (Professional)
Mainstream(Consumer & Enterprise)
Performance(Multimedia Consumer)
Enthusiast(Gamer)
Value & Nettop(Enterprise & Consumer)
Enthusiast/Workstation(Gamer/Professional)
Ultrathin(Consumer)
Thin & Light(Consumer & Enterprise)
Desktop Replacement(Enterprise & Consumer)
Netbook(Consumer)
I G P
Two or more GPUs
Discrete GPU
I G P
Discrete GPU
CPU with embedded GPU
Discrete GPUs
CPU with embedded GPU
Discrete GPUs
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First Fully Integrated EPG
2H’10 AMD shipped samples of its Fusion Llano processor to its OEMs.
A fully integrated HPU fabricated in a 32nm process
It was a 4 core CPU with a 32 or greater core GPU
First GPU to be built in SOI.
ATI has demonstrated transistor packing getting 1,600 cores in a 334mm2 die
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hLlano Block Diagram
Core 1 Core 2 Core 3 Core 4
512kb L2Cache
512kb L2Cache
512kb L2Cache
512kb L2Cache
1024kb L2Cache
6MB L3 Cache
System Request Interface
Crossbar Switch
DDR3 MC HyperTransport I/O
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Performance of GPUs
AMD 945+890GX
Intel i5 661
AMD HD5450
AMD Llano
Nvidia GTX480
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Relative performance of GPUsJon Peddie Research
* Higher is better
Speculated
EPGs will be a real inflection point
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h INFLECTION POINT
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An Inflection Point
The EPG is an inflection point One that has been speculated, and
worried about for years – has LSI integration gotten to the point that the
discrete GPU will be relegated to a small and declining portion of the market?
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Self Perpetuating
If that happens, where will the R&D budget come from to develop the next generation of GPUs?
The design cycle and cost for a modern GPU is incredible compared to just 10 years ago.
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Development Costs
To get the ROI for that kind of investment the GPU suppliers have to sell not only high-end chips but also midrange derivative versions.
If, however, the midrange is satisfied by the EPG based processors, the ROI will take longer and may never be realized due to obsolesce of functionality.
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Time and Cost to Develop
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
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4,000
4,500
6 8 10 12 14 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 51 56 61 65 68
Time to develolp (mo)Cost to de-velop($M)
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Costs over time
The “watershed” concept
The average life cycle of a GPU roughly follows the introduction of versions of the Direct X API.
DirectX Version
Windows Version Release Date
DirectX 1.0 Windows 3.1 Sept. 1995
DirectX 2.0 95 and NT 4.0 Jun. 1996
DirectX 3.0 NT 4.0 SP3 Sept. 1996
DirectX 4.0 n/a Never released
DirectX 5.0 98 Jul. 1997 Riva 128 3D Rage Pro
DirectX 6.0 98 SE and ME Aug. 1998 Riva TNT Rage 128 GL
DirectX 7.0 2000 Sept. 1999 GF 256 Radeon
DirectX 8.0 2000 Nov. 2000 GF 2 Ultra
DirectX 8.1 XP Nov. 2001 Radeon 8500
DirectX 9.0 XP Dec. 2002 GF FX 5800 Radeon 9700 Pro
DirectX 9.0a XP Mar. 2003
DirectX 9.0b XP Aug. 2003 Radeon X800
DirectX 9.0c XP Aug. 2004 GF 6800
DirectX 9.0c XP Aug. 2005 GF 7800 Radeon x1300-1900
DirectX 10 Vista Nov. 2006 GF8800
DirectX 10.1 Vista SP1 Nov. 2007 Radeon HD 2900
DirectX 10.1 Vista SP1 Feb. 2008 GTX 200 Radeon HD 4800
DirectX 11 Windows 7 Oct. 2009 Radeon HD 5800
DirectX 11 Windows 7 Oct. 2010 GTX 480
DirectX 11.1 Windows 7 Mar 2012 GTX 680 Radeon 7970
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Other Concerns
As the IGP gained unit market share the investors and press extrapolated the line to predict when all PCs would be IGP based.
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
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700
Discrete and Integrated Graphics (M Units WW)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Market share of dGPUs in Consumer & SMB PCs
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Beware of Soothsayers
It’s a silly model and most forecasters knew it
The “smart” ones reasoned that Moore’s law would indeed compensate for performance and that functional integration was inevitable and therefore the discrete GPU was a Dodo.
Some of them made bets on the shares of the GPU suppliers accordingly, and even used the recession to “prove” they were right.
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Market Share Issues
If GPU shipments stay flat, and EPGs grow at the rate of the PC market, GPU unit market share will shrink.
And, depending upon GPU ASP and how the ASP for the EPG is calculated, the GPU market value may shrink.
That will make investors very nervous.
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You can’t build a blivet There is a limit as to how many transistors
that can be put into a die There are power envelope limits, package, yield, and heat dissipation limits.
You can’t take a 250 watt, 3.6 billion transistor, 1536 core GK104 and cram it in with a 77 watt 1.4 billion transistor Intel Ivy Bridge Core i7 processor
Limitations of EPG
A blivet is ten pounds of stuff in a five pound bag
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Software
Software doesn’t stand still If application development stopped Dec
2009 EPG processors would satisfy the needs of 95% of the users.
Investors and writers have long seen that as the ultimate conclusion, even before EPGs
It wrong!
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Software Market Issues
Hardware has leapt ahead of software Software development is just as time and
money consuming as chip design. An AAA first-person shooter (FSP) game takes
3-5 years and $5 to $30 million dollars to produce now
It’s a risky “hits-based” business Only a few publishers and studios in the
market so the output capacity of the industry is limited.
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Software Lag
Software will continue to improve And use the cycles available to it And stay almost a generation
behind HW Occasionally some developers will be in, or
almost in sync with the hardware developments.
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Chicken vs. Egg
The chicken and egg dilemma No one wants to develop for a small
installed HW base Some ISVs hold back a new release until
either the installed base builds up or a competitor announces a new release.
This is extremely frustrating for the hardware suppliers.
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Heterogeneous compute
It’s here (at last)
Support in three OS This is a significant breakthrough in
computer science It will have far reaching, long term, and
astounding influence on the world. The economy of scale puts a super
computer in the hands of everyone for $5,000 or less.
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Could this be the Future?
CPU
Hi speed linksto PCIeBridge
Graphics memoryHigh-speed
DDRAM
South Bridge
GraphicsProcessor
(GPU)
SystemDRAM
Ray TracingProcessor
(RTP)
NICProcessor
(FPG)
AudioProcessor
(DSP)
LarrabeeCo-processor
Or is the third processor like the third rail?
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More FLOPS Less $
Cost per FLOP, the GPU used as a vector processor most economical computing element.
The GPU can be used in three major application areas:
scientific, professional/commercial, and consumer.
Most applications will scale by the number of GPU cores available.
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Destroying things – Investment Protection
A discrete-based GPU AIB, adds extraordinary impact to a game. It also offers investment protection to the buyer in that it gives added life to his or her purchase.
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South Bridge
System memoryHigh-speed
SDRAM
High-speedLinks
Memory
Bus
ProcessorGPU
Discrete GPU
Graphics memoryHigh-speed
DDRAMFrame buffer
Hybrid PC Architecture
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Scalable Graphics
SLI – 2 to 3 AIBs Crossfire – 2 to 4 AIBs Lucid Logix – 2 to 4 AIBs - mixed
1 2 3 4100
150
200
250
300Estimated scaling
ATINvidiaLucid Logix
Multiple AIBs for:• More performance• Physics•Ray tracing• Investment protection
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The more you can see …The more you can do - Peddie’s 2nd law
In Computer Graphics too much is not enough - Peddie’s 1st law
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The big future for discrete GPUs
GPUs sell 1.35 to PCs That ratio will increase due to:
GPU compute Hybrid Scaling
The EPG class products will kill midrange GPUs
They can’t come close the high-end
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The Market Shift to EPG
Q1'08
Q2'08
Q3'08
Q4'08
Q1'09
Q2'09
Q3'09
Q4'09
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q1'12
Q2'12
Q3'12
Q4'12
Q1'13
Q2'13
Q3'13
Q4'13
0
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180 Total Graphics (M units) by QtrJon Peddie Research
Total DT & NB Discret Total DT & NB IGP
Discrete GPUs
