E. Africa Agro-Climatic Updates

14 January, 2014

Rainfall Performance & Impacts on Vegetation AnomaliesRFE Percent of Normal (%): 1 Oct- 31 Dec., 2013

USGS/FEWS NET

NOAA/CPC

Large areas of below normal rainfall performance (<50%) highlighted on the RFE anomaly map and some of its impacts visible on vegetation anomalies in areas of concern.

WRSI/Maize Start of season anomalies: 10 Jan 2014 As the short-rains ends, the key concerns:1. Significantly delayed onset/planting by over 1

month. Most late planted maize crops are currently at vegetative and reproductive stage,.

2. Little or no rains expected in southeastern Kenya districts and southern Somalia in the coming weeks. As dry and hot-season continues until the long-rains season.

3. There is increased likelihood for reduced yield to crop failure these areas of concern, mostly in marginal agricultural areas of Kenya and Somalia.

2013 Short-rains: Maize Crop Season Progress

Example: WRSI/Maize seasonal progress

WRSI/Maize Anomalies: 10 Jan. 2014

WRSI/Grains Anomalies: Sept2013

Overall, the 2013 Ethiopia/Belg cropping conditions were better-than-average and aalos in comparison with the previous year (2012), apart for much of western Afar region and localized areas in southern SNNPR and Oromiya regions.

Ethiopia Belg: WRSI/Grains Cropping Season Conditions

2013 WRSI/Grains compared to 2012

Delayed onset and erratic rainfall performance during the short-rains season, has negatively impacted on the rangeland conditions for the areas highlighted in red on the map:

• Northern and parts of eastern Kenya.

• Southern Somalia

• Localized areas of southern Ethiopia (near Moyale district of Kenya).

• Localized areas of southern Kenya (Masai/Mara and Taveta) into northern Tanzania.

• Northeastern Somalia and along Djibouti and Eritrea coastlines.

2013 Short-rains: Rangeland Conditions Anomalies

WRSI/Rangeland Anomalies: 10 Jan. 2014

1- 2 weeks GFS/Rainfall Forecast

Sunny and dry conditions across Uganda, Kenya and Somalia as the short-rains end.

The ITCZ (rain belt) has already shifted southwards and is well established in Tanzania and southern Africa countries. More rains are forecast in the regions, however, little or no rains is expected over northeastern Tanzania and its northern coastal areas (pwani) for coming weeks.

Rainfall & Temperature Outlooks: Jan – Mar., 2014

1. Forecasts depict extensive areas of abnormally high surface temperatures (+1 to +2 deg C) with slightly below average rainfall for Jan – Mar. 2014. Providing further indications for increased likelihood for reduced yield to almost crop failure in areas of concern over southern Somalia, SE Kenya and parts of northern Tanzania.

2. Rangeland (pasture and surface water) resources are also likely to be adversely impacted in these areas, especially in northern & eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.

ECMWF Rainfall & Temperature Outlooks: March – May, 2014

Near normal seasonal rainfall performance forecast for the Mar – May period, across the region apart from the western sector, where normal to above rainfall performance is forecast.

Above normal surface temperatures are also expected to continue over southern Somalia and eastern Kenya during this period, as indicated in these maps.

ECMWF Rainfall & Temperature Outlooks: Apr- Jun, 2014

Near average seasonal rainfall performance forecast for the April – June period, across the region apart for the western sector, where normal to above rainfall performance is forecast. There are also concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over Kenya/Tanzania coastal strip and over southern Tanzania.

CFSv2 Rainfall Outlooks

ENSO neutral and weak IOD conditions are expected to continue this year, for the forecast duration shown in these maps.

CFS seasonal forecast are also indicative of near average seasonal rainfall performance forecast for the Belg and long-rains seasonal rainfall across the region.

Long-term forecasts have very low reliability skills and will require close monitoring and updates.

Revised: East Africa AssumptionsEA Assumption 1:The March to May 2014 Gu/long rains in the eastern Horn of Africa in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are expected to be near normal in terms of total rainfall.

EA Assumption 2: The long rains in western Kenya/the first season rains in bimodal areas of Uganda/Season B rains in Rwanda and Burundi, and Belg rains in Ethiopia from February/March/April to May/June/July are expected to start at seasonally normal time and be near normal to above normal in terms of total rainfall.

EA Assumption 3:The October to March Xays/Dadaa rains over coastal areas of Djibouti and northwestern Somalia are expected to continue to be near normal to above normal in terms of total rainfall due to warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Aden.

EA Assumption 4:Abnormally high land surface temperatures, up to two degrees above normal, are likely between January and March in eastern and northern Kenya, southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, western Uganda, and in parts of central and northern Tanzania.