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Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simposium Maklmat Geospatial Kebangsaan Ke-5 21 & 22 Mei 2012, Dewan B, Pusat Konvensyen Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC)

Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

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Page 1: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Early Warning System

on Natural Disasters

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Simposium Maklmat Geospatial Kebangsaan Ke-5

21 & 22 Mei 2012, Dewan B, Pusat Konvensyen Antarabangsa Putrajaya (PICC)

Page 2: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

2

SCOPE

Natural Hazards Affecting Malaysia

Early Warning System for Risk Management

Multi Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

Weather & Climate Extremes

Earthquakes & Tsunamis

Concluding Remarks

Page 3: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

3

Natural hazards affecting

Malaysia

Page 4: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Natural Hazards affecting Malaysia

Weather related Hazards

– Floods from heavy monsoonal rain

– Flash floods

– Severe thunderstorms / lightning

– Tropical cyclones / typhoons

– Strong Winds and rough seas

– Forest fires

– Severe haze

– Agricultural droughts

Geophysical Hazards

– Earthquakes

– Tsunamis

– Landslides

– Volcanic Eruptions

Page 5: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Severe Weather in Malaysia

Northeast Monsoon (Nov – Mac)

Southwest Monsoon (Jun – Aug)

Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sep-Oct)

Flood

Haze

Flash Flood

Strong Wind and Rough Sea

Page 6: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Among the Extreme Weather Events in Pen. Malaysia: 2005 - 2009

e.g.

The abnormal severe floods

over Peninsular Malaysia

during winter monsoon of

2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Page 7: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Among the Extreme Weather Events in Sabah & Sarawak: 2010 - 2011

Flashflood, Mukim Dalit,

Pensiangan, Jan 2011

Strong winds, Kanowit,

Nov 2010

Flood, Long Lama, Miri

Nov 2010

Flashflood, Kota Kinabalu

Mac 2011

Flood, Lahad Datu, 28 Jan

2011

Flood, Kidurong, Bintulu,

Jan 2010

Page 8: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Recent Severe Thunderstorm Event on 17 February 2011 in Petaling Jaya & Subang Jaya

Jalan Universiti,

Petaling Jaya

Sek. Keb. Methodist,

Sec 5, PJ

Jalan

Kewajipan,

Subang

Jaya

Page 9: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Among the Water Spout Events: 2006 - 2010

Kudat, 2006 Miri, April 2010

Jejawi, Perlis,

October 2010 Pulau Tioman,

June 2009

Tanjung Bungah,

Penang,

July 2007

Malacca, November

2010

Pulau Pinang, 2010 Bkt. Kriang, Kedah,

Mac 2011

Page 10: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Weather Extremes uring Southwest Monsoon

Jerebu, 1997

Sg. Sembrong,

2010

Kelantan, 2010

Sarawak, 2009

Muar, 2010

Page 11: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

11

Earthquake Activities

Around Malaysia (1959 ~ 2004)

Page 12: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

12

TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES

ON 26 DECEMBER 2004

1

2

Phuket : 2.0 hrs

Langkawi : 3.0 hrs

Balik Pulau : 4.0 hrs

B. Feringghi : 4.4 hrs

Kuala Muda : 4.5 hrs

Jln. Gurney : 4.5 hrs

Bagan Datok : 5.5 hrs

Sabak Bernam : 6.0 hrs

Page 13: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

13

Earthquakes:

Plate Boundaries Southeast Asia Region

Page 14: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

14

Early Warning System for

Risk Management

Page 15: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

risk management

crisis management

Reconstruction

Recovery Response

Impact

Assessment

Mitigation

Preparedness Prediction and

Early Warning

Disaster

Page 16: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

16

A weakness or failure in any one of these

elements could result in the failure of the

whole system.

FOUR main elements of

“People-Centered Early Warning Systems”

Dissemination

& Communication

Communicate

Risk Information

and

Early Warnings

Response

Capabilities

Building National

and Community

Response

Capabilities

Monitoring and

Warning Service

Develop Hazard

Monitoring and

Early Warning

Services

Risk Knowledge

Systematically

Collect Data and

Undertake Risk

Assessments

Page 17: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

17

Warnings must be produced

Warning message must be transmitted & received

Information must be understood

Information must be confirmed

Message must be believed

Risk must be personalised

Decision to take appropriate defensive and preparatory

actions

Resources and capacity for preparatory action

Early Warning Systems Requirements

Page 18: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

18

Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

Page 19: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

19

Integrated

Early Warning System at MMD

Weather monitoring, prediction, &

warning

Sea state monitoring, prediction &

warning

Earthquake monitoring & tsunami early

warning system

Page 20: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

RESPONSE CAPACITY COMMUNICATION & DISSEMINATION

MONITORING & WARNING SYSTEM

RISK KNOWLEDGE

People-centered Early Warning Systems

For Weather, Sea-State & Tsunamis

Page 21: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Malaysian Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Since 2005

TSUNAMI

FLOOD

SEVERE WEATHER

FOREST FIRE

VOLCANO

SMS & Cell Broadcasting

Fixed Lines Disaster Alert System

Siren

Printed Media

TV & Radio

MULTI-HAZARD

EARLY WARNING

CENTRE

AT MMD

Page 22: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

DISSEMINATION

SMS & Emails

TV Crawlers (Hotline between MMD & RTM)

Mini TV broadcast studio at MMD

Telefax

Website

Fixed Line Alert System (FLAS)

Tsunami Sirens

Page 23: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM

Data Dissemination

Computer Processing

Facilities and

Forecasting Model

Weather Forecast

Warning

Mass MediaGeneral PublicPublic Organizations

Receive and Action

Page 24: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Ensemble prediction system

Multi-model and single

model ensembles

Deteministic models

Decision

support

system

Decision support

tools

Assesments

Observing

system

Satellite

In situ

Social

decisions

Economical

decisions

Environmental

decisions

Weather forecasts

Data

Data

assimilation

system

Security

decisions

End-to-end Weather & Climate forecast system require decision support tools to enhance applications

Page 25: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Import

ance

Day Week Month Season Year

Average Time Scale

Thunderstorms

Typhoon

Tropical disturbances

Intra-seasonal

2-Week 3-Month

El Nino/ La Nina

Predictability

of short &

medium-

range weather

forecast

Predictability

of seasonal

and yearly

forecast

Constraint: Short, Medium-range & Seasonal Predictibility

Page 26: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Future (<1.0 km) Existing (4-km res.)

T/flops ≡ Trillion

Floating Points

Operations per

Second

Local (sub-district) Level Weather Forecast:

Needs Very High Resolution Numerical

Weather Prediction (NWP) Modelling System

Page 27: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Tahap Semasa Keupayaan JMM Dalam Memberikan Perkhidmatan

Page 28: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Global Framework For Climate Services (GFCS)

Page 29: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

29

Multi- Hazard Early Warning System at MMD

Earthquakes & Tsunamis

Page 30: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

EARTHQUAKES:

MONITORING SEISMIC ACTIVITIES

17 seismic stations

Page 31: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

31

10 min

Timeline

TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Page 32: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Coastal Points (99 points)

- Bathymetry water depth ~ 1 m Forecast Points (99 points)

- Bathymetry water depth ~ 50 m

Tsunami Modeling & Database

(Mw)

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Depth (km)

0

20

40

60

Page 33: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

MMD also monitor the sea level at 37 sites in the

Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean

MNTEWC

TSUNAMIS: TIDE GAUGE

FOR SEA LEVEL MONITORING

17 Sites: transmission of

data every 1 min.

Page 34: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

MONITORING (COASTAL CAMERA)

18 Sites

Page 35: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

To improve weather & climate extremes, sea state and tsunami

early warning services for societal well being, we need:

Higher accuracy of weather & climate forecasts at local level;

shorter timeline with accuracy of tsunami warning after

earthquake occurrence;

awareness programmes (drills, table=top exercises &

awareness campaigns) for both tsunamis and weather

extremes;

better coordination between disaster management agencies;

and

Better risk assessments.

Concluding Remarks

Page 36: Early Warning System on Natural Disasters - MyGeoportal 3 -iv... · Early Warning System on Natural Disasters ... Jerebu, 1997 Sg. Sembrong,

Thank You