ECLAC HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING EFFECTS OF DISASTERS1 HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DISASTERS Economic Commission for

ECLAC HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING EFFECTS OF DISASTERS

1

HANDBOOKHANDBOOKFOR ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND FOR ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND

ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DISASTERSENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DISASTERS

Economic Commission for Latin America and the CaribbeanEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

The The World BankWorld Bank

4. 4. Productive Productive SSectorsectors

Productive sectorsProductive sectors

AgricultureAgriculture Trade and IndustryTrade and Industry TourismTourism


3

AgricultureAgriculture

Direct damages to agriculture infrastructureDirect damages to agriculture infrastructure


4

Agriculture ...Agriculture ...

Direct damages:Direct damages:Harvested productionHarvested production


5

Agriculture: indirect damagesAgriculture: indirect damages

Reduced productionReduced production


6

Cattle raisingCattle raising

Cattle losses, Cattle losses, weight weight reduction reduction and fall in and fall in milk milk productionproduction


7

FishingFishing

Damages to fishing Damages to fishing fleetfleetReducted captureReducted capture


8

BELIZE: SUMMARY OF DAMAGES TO THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Damages (thousands of BZ$) Total area

(Ha)

Affected area (Ha)

Loss of production

(t) Direct Indirect Total

Grand total 113,370 37,690 266,982 77,469.0 46,889.1 124,358.1 Export crops 49,961 6,434 272,264 20,693.6 31,244.4 51,938.0 Sugar 24,281 3,800 187,800 7,843.9 23,285.3 31,129.2 Citrus 25,528 2,553 81,891 8,023.8 5,976.2 14,000.0 Papaya (papaw) 49 42 2,376 4,294.8 1,775.9 6,070.7 Habanero pepper 22 19 188 331.2 207.0 538.2 Cotton 81 20 9 200.0 0 200.0 Domestic consumption crops 21,272 14,594 42,010 20,456.9 4,821.2 25,278.1 Rice 2,837 2,439 8,199 4,699.5 2,164.4 6,863.9 Corn 15,827 10,994 18,485 6,927.6 0 6,927.6 Soybeans 279 184 372 270.6 219.0 489.6 Plantain 490 375 11,067 2,927.8 2,437.8 5,365.6 Beans 182 87 97 156.5 0 156.5 Other fruits 1,342 294 1,451 1,522.9 0 1,522.9 Vegetables 250 180 2,107 3,792.9 0 3,792.9 Root crops 65 41 232 159.1 0 159.1


9

Sector damagesTotal Area(Has)

Affected Area Production(Tons) Direct Indirect Total

Livestock (Heads/Meat) 554,122 38,077 173 14,560,519 4,507,300 19,067,819Cattle 52,060 288 78 181,100 4,507,300 4,688,400Pigs 19,000 130 35 24,000 0 24,000Poultry 479,000 37,635 58 121,080 0 121,080Horses 3,000 15 - 7,500 0 7,500Buffaloes 62 2 1.0 1,600 0 1,600Sheep/Goats 1,000 7 0.2 2,450 0 2,450Pastures (Has.) 42,136 17,627 - 14,222,789 0 14,222,789

Fisheries - - 198 9,554,295 6,205,908 15,760,203Lobster - - 100 4,831,508 4,941,315 9,772,823Conch - - 72 1,197,675 1,077,908 2,275,583Other fish products - - 26 167,872 186,686 354,558Fishing Equipment,Materials, Infrastructure

3,357,240 3,357,240

Beekeeping(Hives/Honey)

800 612 37 107,100 110,160 217,260

Capital Goods(excluding fisheries)

12,096,550 0 12,096,550

Machinery 148,000 0 148,000Infrastructure 11,689,000 0 11,689,000Equipment & Materials 259,550 0 259,550


10

Damages to agriculture, cattle raising and Damages to agriculture, cattle raising and fishingfishing

Direct damagesDirect damages Repair or reconstruction costs of agriculture, cattle farming Repair or reconstruction costs of agriculture, cattle farming

and fishing infrastructure, including tertiary level roadsand fishing infrastructure, including tertiary level roads Damages or destruction of fishing fleetDamages or destruction of fishing fleet Damages or destruction of fish farming ponds and shrimp Damages or destruction of fish farming ponds and shrimp

factoriesfactories Agriculture production ready to be harvestedAgriculture production ready to be harvested Stocked agricultural produce and grainsStocked agricultural produce and grains Losses in animal stockLosses in animal stock

Indirect damagesIndirect damages Reduced yields in future cropsReduced yields in future crops Not planting of future cropsNot planting of future crops Reduced fishingReduced fishing Loss of employmentLoss of employment Differential impact on womenDifferential impact on women


11

Information sourcesInformation sources

• Preliminary damage assessment realized by national officials;Preliminary damage assessment realized by national officials;

• Long-term statistical series on production and trends in the Long-term statistical series on production and trends in the affected region;affected region;

• Sectoral experts and agents from the sectoral planning office;Sectoral experts and agents from the sectoral planning office;

• Directors of specialized institutions (trade associations, Directors of specialized institutions (trade associations, growers, cattle farmers, fishing asociations);growers, cattle farmers, fishing asociations);

• Representatives of companies involved in the transformation Representatives of companies involved in the transformation of agricultural products, and packers;of agricultural products, and packers;

• Service providers, vendors of secoral inputs;Service providers, vendors of secoral inputs;

• Printed press of immediate aftermath of the disaster;Printed press of immediate aftermath of the disaster;

• International sectoral officials having some activities in the International sectoral officials having some activities in the affected area.affected area.


12

SSummarized ummarized tabletable to developto develop

Total Direct IndirectIncrease in

importsDecrease in

exportsTotalAgriculture1. Assets Soil Plantations, facilities2. Production: Crops Domestic consumption Rice Beans Maize Sorghum Exports and industry Bananas Coffee Sugarcane Citrus Melon African palm Pineapple OtherLivestock1. Assets Cattle Poultry Physical facilities Pasture2. Production Milk ForestryFisheries1. Assets Fishing Reservoirs2. Production Fishing Shrimp in reservoirs

LOSSES IN AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES(In thousands of dollars)

Item

Damage Impact on the external sector


13

Trade and IndustryTrade and Industry

Direct damage to infrastructure and stocksDirect damage to infrastructure and stocks


14

Commerce, industry and servicesCommerce, industry and services

Temporary cuts in productionTemporary cuts in productionReduced productionReduced productionReduced incomesReduced incomesDifferential impact on womenDifferential impact on women


15

Commerce, industry and servicesCommerce, industry and services

Direct damagesDirect damages Repair or reconstruction costs of infrastructureRepair or reconstruction costs of infrastructure Repair or replacement cost of equipment and machineryRepair or replacement cost of equipment and machinery Losses in finished production (stocks and inventories)Losses in finished production (stocks and inventories)

Indirect damagesIndirect damages Reduced productionReduced production Temporary employment lossesTemporary employment losses Differential impact on womenDifferential impact on women


16

ManufactureManufacture

Direct Indirect TotalGuarenas/Guatire industrial complex 6.4 3.0 9.4300 small manufacturing enterprises 13.4 11.6 25.0Damage in agro-industry … 16.5 16.5Damages in construction-related ones 1.0 1.0 2.0 Totals 20.8 32.1 52.9

Damages in Millions of US$


17

Commercial lossesCommercial losses

Direct Indirect TotalDamages to supermarkets 84.3 16.9 101.9Damages to medium-sized commerce 206.3 51.6 257.9Damages in small and micro businesses 23.4 4.7 28.1 Totals 314.0 73.2 387.9

Damages in Millions of US$


18

Sources of information (Industry)Sources of information (Industry)

National sources:National sources:• The most recent industrial census;The most recent industrial census;• Information and time series on production;Information and time series on production;• Periodic surveys carried out by trade and industry ministries Periodic surveys carried out by trade and industry ministries

or by central banks;or by central banks;• Information in periodic bulletins from industry associations;Information in periodic bulletins from industry associations;• Economic and statistical information published by industrial or Economic and statistical information published by industrial or

manufacturers’ groups;manufacturers’ groups;• Information prepared by groups on micro and small Information prepared by groups on micro and small

enterprises or businesses;enterprises or businesses;• Information available in patent, trademark and industry Information available in patent, trademark and industry

promotion offices, and municipal records..promotion offices, and municipal records..

International sources:International sources:• The Latin American Demography Center’s RedatamThe Latin American Demography Center’s Redatam


19

Sources of information (Sources of information (Commerce)Commerce)

Information on the commerce sector is generally scarcerInformation on the commerce sector is generally scarcerand less reliable than that available for industry.and less reliable than that available for industry.

National sources:National sources:• National or local time series on the level of commercial National or local time series on the level of commercial

activities;activities;• Trade and professional associations of the country or region. Trade and professional associations of the country or region.

International sources:International sources:• International organizations.International organizations.


20

TourismTourism

Direct damage to tourism infrastructureDirect damage to tourism infrastructure


21

TourismTourism

Damage to beaches in tourist areasDamage to beaches in tourist areas


22

Damages to tourismDamages to tourism

Direct damagesDirect damages Repair or reconstruction costs of tourism infrastructureRepair or reconstruction costs of tourism infrastructure Repair or replacement cost of furniture and tourism Repair or replacement cost of furniture and tourism

equipmentequipment Damages to beaches and other tourist attractionsDamages to beaches and other tourist attractions

Indirect damagesIndirect damages Temporary fall in hotel occupancy and income of Temporary fall in hotel occupancy and income of

enterprisesenterprises Negative effect in linked activitiesNegative effect in linked activities Cancelled future reservations and cost of promotion Cancelled future reservations and cost of promotion

campaignscampaigns UnemploymentUnemployment Differential impact on womenDifferential impact on women


23

Sources of informationSources of information

National sources:National sources:• Recent censuses or surveys on tourism spending and stays;Recent censuses or surveys on tourism spending and stays;• National statistics offices;National statistics offices;• Information provided by national tourism sector authorities;Information provided by national tourism sector authorities;• Hotel and tourism associations;Hotel and tourism associations;• Tour operators;Tour operators;• Central banks;Central banks;• Port and airport authorities; andPort and airport authorities; and• Insurance companies.Insurance companies.

International sources:International sources:• Central American Tourism Integration Secretariat;Central American Tourism Integration Secretariat;• International reinsurance companies; andInternational reinsurance companies; and• World Tourism Organization.World Tourism Organization.


24

TOURIST ARRIVALS PROJECTED 2000-2001Philip Goldson International Airport

10,565

13,019

17,132

12,100

10,376

11,171 11,356

8,687

5,611

7,055

9,877

12,564 12,678

15,623

10,565

13,019

17,132

12,100

10,376

11,171 11,356

8,687

5,611

4,118

6,980

10,470

11,410

15,623

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000E

ne

-00

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-0

0

Ab

r-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Jun

-00

Jul-

00

Ag

o-0

0

Se

p-0

0

Oct-

00

No

v-0

0

Dic

-00

En

e-0

1

Fe

b-0

1

Nu

mb

er

of

tou

ris

ts

Actual arrivals

Arrivals projected without H. Keith

Arrivals projected with H.Keith


25

BELIZE: DIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISM

(Ambergris Caye/San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Caye Chapel)

(Thousands of BZ$)

Total 124,094.0 1. Hotel buildings (including furniture, equipment, damage golf course)

84,000.0

2. Gift shops 10,000.0 3. Restaurants 11,800.0 4. Landscaping 2,560.0 5. Piers/marinas 1,134.0 6. Seawalls + backshore 10,400.0 7. Tourist related boats (140) 4,200.0


26

Summary of Direct and Indirect Summary of Direct and Indirect Damages in Tourism SectorDamages in Tourism Sector

Total Impact in International

Trade

Direct Damage 124,094 79,100

Indirect Damage 36,299 36,299

Total 160,393 115,284


27

Economic SectorsEconomic Sectors(Millions of dollars)(Millions of dollars)

SECTOR DIRECT

DAMAGE INDIRECT DAMAGE

TOTAL DAMAGE

Replacement cost

PRODUCTIVE SECTORS 1,871.7 1,041.1 2,912.8 5,238.4

Agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry 1,759.0 510.5 2,269.5 4,085.1 Manufacturing Industry 32.8 301.9 334.7 602.5 Trade, Restaurants, Hotels 79.9 228.7 308.6 555.5

ENVIRONMENT 67.3 0.7 68.0


28

Macroeconomic Macroeconomic and other and other effectseffects

Assessment information and quantifications willAssessment information and quantifications willenable the macroeconomics specialist to determineenable the macroeconomics specialist to determinethe future overall effects of the disaster on thethe future overall effects of the disaster on theperformance of the main macroeconomic variables:performance of the main macroeconomic variables:

- Gross domestic product- Gross domestic product- - Balance of paymentsBalance of payments- - Public financesPublic finances- I- Inflationnflation

Other related subjects:Other related subjects:- Employment and income- Employment and income- - The differential impact on womenThe differential impact on women- - Environmental impactsEnvironmental impacts

Documents

ECLAC HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING EFFECTS OF DISASTERS1 HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DISASTERS Economic Commission for