ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh

ECMWF Status Report

Stephen English

ECMWF


Brief overview of ECMWF systems and activities

Overview of operational satellite data usage / monitoring

Research topics related to satellite observations

Overview:


Numerical Weather

Prediction (NWP)

Historical reanalysis for

climate research

Environmentalmonitoring and

modelling

Main areas of activity at ECMWF


Numerical Weather

Prediction (NWP)

HIRES + ENS Monthly Seasonal


Environmentalmonitoring and

modelling

Estimating greenhouse gas concentration and

flux inversion

Monitoring and forecasting trajectory

of dust events

Monitoring and forecasting trajectory

of volcanic events


Re-analysis for climate

research

Trend analysis of climate parameters

Improved climatology for process studies

Cleansed historical observation data sets


Operational NWP


The forecast model


Grid structure of the Global operational NWP forecast model: (time step = 10mins)

91 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)

T1279 spectral resolution(~16km grid point spacing)

0 10 20 30Pressure layer thickness [hPa]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Pre

ssure

[hP

a]

L91L137

137 levels in the vertical (surface to 0.01hPa)


~210km ~125km ~63km ~39km ~25km ~16km

Evolution of ECMWF forecast skill


The Assimilation System


])H[(])H[(

)()()(1

1

xyxy

xxxxxJT

bT

b

R

B

Operational 4D-Var Algorithm


Operational 4D-Var Algorithm

)()(

)()(

])H[(])H[(

)()()(

1

1

1

1

bT

b

bT

b

T

bT

b

xyxy

xxxxxJ

B

B

R

B

VARBC term to correct observation bias

Weak constraint term to correct model bias

Flow dependent errors from EDA system


Overview of data usage


Ground based / launched observations


Overview of data usageSYNOP/SHIP/METAR:Meteorological/aeronautical land surface weather stations (2m-temperature, dew-point temperature, 10m-wind)

BUOYS:Moored buoys (TAO, PIRATA)Drifters

TEMP/TEMPSHIP/DROPSONDES:RadiosondesASAPs (commercial ships replacing stationary weather ships)Dropsondes released from aircrafts (NOAA, Met Office, tropical cyclones, experimental field campaigns, e.g., FASTEX, NORPEX)

PROFILERS:UHF/VHF Doppler radars (Europe, US, Japan)

Aircraft:AIREPS (manual reports from pilots)AMDARs, ACARs, etc. (automated readings)

Now within VarBC!


Satellite Observations




Overview of data usageLevel-1 radiances Level-2 products Level-1.5 products

AMSU-A, ATMS, MHS, MWTS, MWHS, HIRS,

IASI, AIRS, CrIS, SEVIRI, MTSAT,

GOES, SSMIS, TMI, SMOS, WindSat

GRAS, GRACE, CNOFS, COSMIC, TERRASAR-X, ASCAT, OSCAT

Level-2* products

SST / SNOW / ICE

CloudSat, Calipso

Research


Radiances AMSU-A on NOAA-15/18/19, AQUA, Metop-A+B, ATMS on Suomi-NPP (from Sept 2012)AMSU-B/MHS on NOAA-19, Metop-A+BSSMIS on F-17, TMI on TRMM, Windsat on CoriolisHIRS on NOAA-17/19, Metop-AAIRS on AQUA, IASI on Metop-A, CrIS on Suomi-NPPMVIRI on Meteosat-7, SEVIRI on Meteosat-9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2 imagersSMOS imager

Bending angles COSMIC-1, GRAS on Metop, GRACE-A, Terrasar-X, CNOFS

Ozone SBUV on NOAA-17/18, OMI on Aura, AIRS, IASI, HIRS

Atmospheric Motion Vectors Meteosat-7/9, GOES-13/15, MTSAT-2, MODIS on Terra/Aqua. FY2

Sea surface parameters Near-surface wind speed from ASCAT on Metop-A, OSCAT on OceanSatSignificant wave height from Jason altimeters



Automated Satellite Alert and Monitoring

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/satellite/




Out of threshold anomalies trigger alerts on web site and launch emails to key personnel prompting action


24


New instruments: FY3 and Suomi-NPPCrIS 14µm

ATMS Ch.9 MWHS Ch.4

MWTS Ch.3


R+D activities relevant to NAEDEX

ECMWFNAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh 27

1. Hyperspectral IR(McNally/Matricardi/Eresmaa)

• New sensors: CrIS• Principal component assimilation• Improved cloud screening• Use of SW and O3 channels


2. Microwave sounders(Bell/Lu/DiTomaso/Eresmaa/Bormann/English)

• Characterisation of bandpass drift in existing sensors• Improved microwave surface emissivity• New sensors: ATMS, FY3• Observation errors


3. Microwave Imagers(Bell/Geer/Baordo/English)

• All sky assimilation including AMSU-A channel 4


4. Satellite winds and Geo radiances (Hernandez/Bormann/Salonen/Lupu)

• AMV error model and understanding • AMV QC• All sky Geo Radiances• Observing model error growth with Geo radiances


EDA analysis spread for temperature at 100 hPa

Tropics

N. HemS. Hem

5. GPSRO(Healy/Harnisch)

• Tangent point drift• EDA experiments: sensitivity to number of observations• Surface pressure• Contributions to ROM SAF (ROPP)


-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

mg/

kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

mg/

kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

Ops, 2010 - 2011Ops, 2010 - 2011 Ops, 2011 - 2012Ops, 2011 - 2012

+IR/O3

+MIPAS

No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012No ENVISAT, 2011 – 2012SBUVSBUV(21)(21), 2011 – 2012, 2011 – 2012

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

mg/

kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5m

g/kg

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

100

10

1

Pres

sure

, hPa

6. Ozone(Dragani)

+SBUV21


7. Radar and lidar(Janiskova/DiMichele/Martins)

• Preparing for EarthCARE using CloudSat and Calipso• Testing forward operator and adjoint assimilation code• Validating model clouds and physical parameterisations• Choices of observation error, QC and bias correction


Summary

•Data volumes / instruments continue to increase•Automated alert system now fully operational•Early CrIS and ATMS results are encouraging•Loss of ENVISAT was a major event, especially for ocean and ozone analysis•Principal component assimilation has been demonstrated for cloud-free scenes•FY3 characterisation led to very valuable re-analysis of errors in MSU and AMSU-A data record•EDA techniques used to try to estimate sensitivity of system to number of GPSRO observations

Documents

ECMWF NAEDEX 2012 – ECMWF Status Report – Stephen Engilsh ECMWF Status Report Stephen English ECMWF