ECMWF Status Report Operational changes since 16 th North America / Europe Data Exchange Meeting

ECMWF status report 1 May 2004

ECMWF Status Report

Operational changes since 16th North America / Europe Data Exchange Meeting

Jean-Noël Thépaut, Adrian Simmons

(Antje Dethof, Niels Bormann, Graeme Kelly, Christina Köpken, Matthew Szyndel, Lüder Von Bremen, Tony

McNally)


Evolution of forecast skill for the northern and southern hemispheres


Operational forecasting system changesand data impact studies carried out since June 2003

• Cycle 26r3 (October 2003)

• Cycle 28r1 (March 2004)

• Data impact studies

• Other operational changes

• Short-term plans


Cycle 26r3 (October 2003)

• First operational assimilation of AIRS data

• AMSU-B on NOAA16 and 17

• AMSU-A on AQUA (4th AMSU-A!)

• Clear Sky WV radiances from Meteosat 5 (India), GOES 9 (Japan) and 12 (replaces GOES 8)

• AMV from GOES 12

• Assimilation of MIPAS ozone retrievals

• New humidity analysis

• Inclusion of Japanese profilers

• New TL radiation scheme in the 4D-VAR

• HALO approach to radiative computations sampling

• New aerosol climatology


First operational usage of AIRS data: Security

• Input radiance data consists of 324 selected channels sampled 1 / 9 locations (from NASA / NESDIS-ORA in BUFR format)

• All channels flagged clear at a location are assimilated (excluding channels in the O3 band or 4.2 micron band and low level channels over land)

• Flat bias correction (single global number) used for each channel

• Very simple (and conservative) observation error assigned to each channel (varying between 0.6 / 1.0 / 2.0K)


AIRS radiance monitoring (1)

Map of bias / sdev

Detailed Time series

Hovmoller time series

15 µ

m b

and

O3

band

H20

ban

d

All channels summary

shor

twav

e ba

nd

Single channeldetails


AIRS impact on the analysis and forecastRMS of 500hPa geopotential forecast error

averaged over 40 days (Dec 02/ Jan 03)[AIRS error] minus [CTRL error]

Day-3

Day-5

Day-7

The assimilation of AIRS radiances shows a small but consistent positive impact on

the analysis and forecast quality in all areas

RMS T increments (500hPa) at radiosonde locations


Impact of individual sounding instruments on forecast quality

55%

65%

75%

85%

95%

Day 3 Day 5 Day 7

1xAMSUA

1xAIRS

1xHIRS

NO-RAD

Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for the Southern Hemisphere(average of 50 cases summer and winter 2003 verified with OPS analyses)

Results much more neutral in the Northern Hemisphere


Impact of AMSU B


Four AMSU-A instruments


Impact of 4th AMSU-A in cy26r3

Better sampling of areas close to rain

Better discrimination of earth surface effects

The large improvement may indicate that AMSU-A obs errors were overestimated


Total column ozone – Ozone hole

O-suite

E-suite(26r3)

TOMS

16 Sept. 2003


Clear Sky Water Vapour Radiances (“CSR”)

• Global Use of WV CSR controls the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Humidity in the ECMWF model

Difference of fit to NOAA-16 WV channel between “CONTROL” and “NO CSR”

Green/blue values indicate a improved fit to NOAA-16 thanks to the use of CSR

Mean over 30 days





Cycle 28r1 (March 2004)

• New snow analysis, using NESDIS snow cover

• Passive monitoring of MSG (winds and radiances)

• Use of GOES BUFR AMVs

• Semi-lagrangian fix for polar vortex instabilities

• Reintroduction of assimilation of ERS2 scat winds, CMOD5 function for backscatter

• Introduction of unresolved bathymetry effects for wave model

• Use of wind stress to force the wave model


usage of GOES BUFR AMVs

NOAA/NESDIS disseminates GOES AMVs in new format operat. (autumn 2002) WV AMVs can be distinguished between clear and cloudy low-level visible AMVs are included quality information (Eumetsat QI) is included

Background:

Advantage: consistent usage of GOES and METEOSAT winds • Only WV cloud winds• Vis winds• height selection same as METEOSAT• data selection by highest noFirst Guess QI• 200km thinning box scale

Results: • improved forecast over SH and Europe• fewer biased data are used over the Tropics• smaller high level increments over East-Pacific• fingerprints of the low-level VIS winds


Impact on 500Z forecast scores (45 days)

CTLNew GOES

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES

ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST

500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL

FORECAST VERIFICATION

A

B

MAGICS 6.8 metis - stv Thu Jul 31 15:23:39 2003 Verify SCOCOM

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES

ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST



A

B


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=S.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES




A

B


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

0

20

40

60

80

100

120M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=S.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES




A

B


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES




A

B


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES




A

B


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=N.AMER TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES




A

B


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/...

AREA=N.AMER TIME=12 MEAN OVER 45 CASES




A

B


NH

Europe N-Amer

SH


Bias: METEOSAT-8, eg85: 2003120400-2003121612WVcloud1: N = 305174.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

WVcloud2: N = 342504.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Bias: METEOSAT-7, eg85: 2003120400-2003121612WVcloud: N = 674455.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

IR: N = 289431.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

VIS: N = 212514.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

WVMV: N = 104061.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Bias: METEOSAT-8, eg85: 2003120318-2003121612VIS2: N = 162712.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

MET-8 AMVs with QI>90 against current MET-7 usageBias: METEOSAT-7, eg85: 2003120400-2003121612

WVcloud: N = 531837.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

IR: N = 236166.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

VIS: N = 191704.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

WVMV: N = 70406.0

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

Bias: METEOSAT-7, eg85: 2003120400-2003121612WVcloud: N = 519414.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

IR: N = 186603.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

VIS: N = 165637.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

WVMV: N = 59011.0

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

MET-8

MET-7

Obs-FG [m/s]

p re s

s ur e

[hP

a ]

Latitude

Bias: METEOSAT-8, eg85: 2003120318-2003121612IR1: N = 390863.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

6.2m 7.3m 10.8m 0.8m

Bias: METEOSAT-8, eg85: 2003120400-2003121612IR1: N = 390863.

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60Lat [deg]

1000

800

600

400

200

p [h

Pa]

-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0QI>90 QI>90 QI>90 QI>90

(current QI thresholds)

MSG Atmospheric Motion Vectors


MSG WV radiances versus MET-7 WV radiances

25th August

Min: -17.1 Max: 8.95 Mean: -1.8626EXP = EFF7

DATA PERIOD = 2003082506 - 2003082506 , HOUR = 05-06MEAN FIRST GUESS DEPARTURE (OBS-FG) (C,BASIC QC,BASI)

STATISTICS FOR RADIANCES FROM MSG- 1 / CSR , CHANNEL = WV6.2

60°S 60°S

45°S45°S

30°S 30°S

15°S15°S

0° 0°

15°N15°N

30°N 30°N

45°N45°N

60°N 60°N

60°W

60°W 45°W

45°W 30°W

30°W 15°W

15°W 0°

0° 15°E

15°E 30°E

30°E 45°E

45°E 60°E

60°E

-5.5-5-4.5-4-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.533.544.555.56

Min: -11.05 Max: 7.2 Mean: -0.065722EXP = 0001

DATA PERIOD = 2003082504 - 2003082504 , HOUR = 03-04MEAN FIRST GUESS DEPARTURE (OBS-FG) (BCORR.) (BASIC QC,BASIC )

STATISTICS FOR RADIANCES FROM MET- 7 / CSR , CHANNEL = WV

60°S 60°S

45°S45°S

30°S 30°S

15°S15°S

0° 0°

15°N15°N

30°N 30°N

45°N45°N

60°N 60°N

60°W

60°W 45°W

45°W 30°W

30°W 15°W

15°W 0°

0° 15°E

15°E 30°E

30°E 45°E

45°E 60°E

60°E

-5.5-5-4.5-4-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.533.544.555.56

Min: -31.4 Max: 7.4 Mean: 0.397963EXP = EFF7

DATA PERIOD = 2003082506 - 2003082506 , HOUR = 05-06MEAN FIRST GUESS DEPARTURE (OBS-FG) ( QC,BASIC QC,BA)

STATISTICS FOR RADIANCES FROM MSG- 1 / CSR , CHANNEL = WV7.3

60°S 60°S

45°S45°S

30°S 30°S

15°S15°S

0° 0°

15°N15°N

30°N 30°N

45°N45°N

60°N 60°N

60°W

60°W 45°W

45°W 30°W

30°W 15°W

15°W 0°

0° 15°E

15°E 30°E

30°E 45°E

45°E 60°E

60°E

-5.5-5-4.5-4-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.533.544.555.56

MSG 6.2µm

MSG 7.3µm

MET-7 WV


Met-7 RH Increment


Met-8 RH Increment


Met-8 Impact

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast Day

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4M/S

DATE1=20040202/... DATE2=20040202/... DATE3=20040202/...

AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 30 CASES


1000 hPa VECTOR W IND

FORECAST VERIFICATION Met-8Met-7

control

M AG I CS 6. 8 m et is - st z Wed Apr 21 10: 47: 58 2004 Ver if y SCO CO M

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast Day

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5M/S

DATE1=20040202/... DATE2=20040202/... DATE3=20040202/...




FORECAST VERIFICATION Met-8Met-7

control


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8M/S

DATE1=20040202/... DATE2=20040202/... DATE3=20040202/...




FORECAST VERIFICATIONMet-8Met-7

control


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Forecast Day

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11M/S

DATE1=20040202/... DATE2=20040202/... DATE3=20040202/...




FORECAST VERIFICATIONMet-8Met-7

control


95% 99.5% 95% 95% 95% 98%<90% <90% <90% <90% <90% 99%

<90% <90% 90% 95% 98% 99.5%<90% <90% <90% 95% 99.5% 99.8%


Conclusions

• MSG (METEOSAT-8) looks healthy:

• CSR stable and with good noise characteristics

• AMVs (if used with High QI) are slightly better than Met-7 ones

• Consolidation of forecast impact needed


• Data impact studies:

• Consolidation of low and high resolution OSES to assess the merit of

surface Observing System (Thépaut and Kelly, 2004)

• Consolidation of high resolution OSES to assess globally the quality of

space and conventional Observing systems (Kelly et al., 2004)

• Impact Studies of main types of conventional and satellite humidity data

(Andersson et al., 2004)


Impact of Atmospheric Motion Vectors in the OSEs

• Global use of AMVs has a positive impact in the ECMWF forecast model (specially in terms of tropical wind scores)

TROPICS

200 hPa vector wind

Mean over 120 cases


Humidity OSEs – Summary (1)

OSEs were performed with cy26r3, using the new humidity analysis. The AN and FC impacts of 2 types of surface-based and 5 types of space-based observing systems have been tested.

SSMI dominates over sea, then AMSUB RS, SYNOP and AMSUB dominate over land GEOS, HIRS and AIRS dominate at 200-300 hPa Analysis increments for SSMI peak at 850, AMSUB at

400/500, GEOS at 300, AIRS at 200 hPa.



Abundance of biases: SSMI adds water in tropics SSMI removes water from parts of the N.Hem storm-

tracks RS are biased w.r.t model in many regions (Mexico, USA,

S. Europe, India, China. SYNOP add water at 925 hPa in most regions. RS and SYNOP show opposite bias at 925 hPa. AMSUB removes water from Siberia and Sahara – adds

water over tropical land. HIRS dry bias over Antarctic ice. AIRS is biased in tropics at 200 hPa.



Precipitation: Only SSMI affects mean tropical precipitation to a

significant degree. Spin-down is increased with SSMI. All other observing types appear near-neutral w.r.t spin-

down in tropical precipitation. RS and SYNOP RH biases are reflected in precipitation

over N. America and Europe SSMI, AMSU-B, HIRS and GEOS affect precipitation in W.

Pacific storm track. SSMI reduces rainfall in N.Atlantic Storm track.


Other main operational changes

• Blacklist GOME total ozone from ERS-2 (18/8/2003)

• End of NOAA17 AMSU-A (31/10/2003)

• Blacklist temporarily AQUA (AMSU-A and AIRS) during solar storm (11/2003)

• Actions (blacklist/bias correction) against various Meteosat calibration

• Blacklist NOAA-15 AMSU-A channel 6 due to a drift in the monitoring statistics (17/2/2004)

• Passive monitoring of KNMI SCIAMACHY profile data (16/03/2004)

• Blacklist MIPAS to prevent a sudden come back! (10/5/2004)

• Blacklist HIRS from NOAA-16 (25/5/2004)


Short term plans (operational targets)

• 2Q04 Early delivery system

• 3/4Q04 Rain-affected mw radiance assimilation

Use of MSG and SSMIS data

Regional variation to Jb covariances

New PBL and Turb. orog.-drag schemes

Various other refinements

• 4Q04/1Q05 Increased vertical resolution

New cloud and stochastic physics schemes

Improved perturbations for EPS

• Later in 05 Increased horizontal resolution


Short-term plans (specific to use of observations)

• Improve the day-1 AIRS assimilation system

• Implementation of RTTOV8 in IFS

• Improved MW surface emissivity over land

• Improved use of AMSU-A over land

• Monitoring and assimilation experiments with SSM/IS

• Monitoring and assimilation of MSG winds (VIS/IR/WV)

• Monitoring and assimilation of MSG WV radiances

• Monitoring ground-based GPS network

• Assimilation of SCIAMACHY ozone profiles

• CHAMP data? (RO assimilation ready)

• Continue to explore limb radiance assimilation

Documents

ECMWF Status Report Operational changes since 16 th North America / Europe Data Exchange Meeting