Ecological Consequences of Climate Change

Miklós KertészIEB HAS

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Global Change

• Human Population • Land Cover• Species Extinctions

• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System

• Much more than climate change• Socio-economic as well as biophysical

Features

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Distribution of forests – before major human impact

Distribution of forests - present

West European Heat Wave 2003

• 30% less primary production• 0.5 Gt carbon source• Delayed impact of forest crown damage• Oxygene depletion in deep lakes

• Decline of mollusc species richness• Extensive wildfires

• 5% of forests in Portugal, €1 billion

Coral reefs• diversity hot-spot, high production, carbon sink• breeding habitat for pelagic fishes, crustaceans, and cnidaria• recreation value

Decaying coral reefs• increase of temperature, dying of simbiont cyanobacteria• fishery• turism, collection

Growing coral reefs

Atelopus, smalltropical frogs1950s and 60s: Import of South Africal Xenopus laevis to the developed countries for obtaining reagent for pregnancy test

From 1970s: Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection of tropical frogs in Central and South Americas, and Australia

2006: 70 Central and South Americal Atelopus species extinct out of 110-112

Climate effect

agriculture

Sessile oak

Sessileoak + hornbeam

beech

Steppe +Dawny oak

South North

agriculture

Sessile oakSessileoak + hornbeam

Beech ?

Steppe +Dawny oak

South North

??

Habitat change

• Degradation• Specialist → Generalist• K-strategist → r-strategist• Species of → Species of

small distribution large distribution

• Biological invasions

• System collapse

Distribution of forests – before major human impact

Distribution of forests - present

Provisioning services • foods (including seafood and game) and spices• precursors to pharmaceutical and industrial products• energy (hydropower, biomass fuels)

Regulating services • carbon sequestration and climate regulation• waste decomposition and detoxification• nutrient dispersal and cycling

Supporting services • purification of water and air• crop pollination and seed dispersal• pest and disease control

Cultural services • cultural, intellectual and spiritual inspiration• recreational experiences (including ecotourism)• scientific discovery

Preserving services • genetic and species diversity for future use• accounting for uncertainty• protection of options

Major sources

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

http://www.ipcc.ch

International Geoshpere-Biosphere Programme

http://www.igbp.kva.se