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Economic Data & Analysis
What are we Trying to do?
What are we trying to do?
• Export goods and services• Import money• Circulate money internally
Planning Intelligence for Economy
• Many sources of data– U.S. Census– U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics– Bureau of Economic Analysis– N.C. Employment Securities Commission
Planning Intelligence for Economy
• U.S. Census– County Business Patterns (Annual)– Economic Census (Every 5 years)• Census• Commodity flow survey
• Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept. of Labor)• Bureau of Economic Analysis (Dept. of
Commerce)
Planning Intelligence for Economy
• State of North Carolina– NCESC• Alternate at bls for MSAs
– NC Department of Revenue• Research and data
Doing Intelligence
• Need some indicators of economic activity– Example, WNC Economic Index• Current Indicators
– Employment– Unemployment Rate
• Leading Indicators– Building Permits (Residential)– Initial Claims for Unemployment
• Creation of a tracking “index”– Actual number is meaningless– Trend of number is meaningful
Doing Intelligence
• Descriptive information– Sectoral (disaggregate)– Employment (aggregate)
• Analytical information– Multipliers– Location Quotients– Shift/Share Analysis
Employment Multipliers
• Total Employment / Export Employment• A multiplier tells us how many jobs are
created (or lost) when we attract (or lose) employment in our community
• Easy to identify total employment– What about “export” employment?
Percent Export = 11
LQ
100
The Location Quotient
• Identifying “export” sectors• Comparing shares of local employment by
sector with a “self-sufficient” economy– Usually, national economy– Can use other levels in hierarchy, but
interpretations change
Location Quotient
• Let’s go to the spreadsheet & page 10 of handout…
Location Quotient = % of Local Emp. in Sector X
% of National Emp. in Sector X
Shift-Share Analysis
• Measures firm efficiency / competitiveness
• Three parts to shift/share– National Growth Component (NG)– Industrial Mix Component (IM)– Competitive Share Component (CS)
Shift-Share
• National Growth Component– Assumes local economic growth at national pace– Estimate of how many local jobs were created
merely to national trends (assuming they are similar in nature)
• Multiply base year local employment (by sector), by the national growth rate
Shift-Share
• Industrial Mix Component• Indicates whether a specific sector is growing
faster (+) or slower (-) national total employment
• Multiply local employment in each sector by:– Difference in sector growth rate & total growth
rate for the nation
Shift-Share
• Competitive Share Component• Determines if local sectors are more
competitive (=) than similar national sectors
• Multiply local sector employment by– Difference in local sector growth rate & national
sector growth rate
• Let’s go to spreadsheet…
• ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS
• The following abbreviations and symbols are used with County Business Patterns data:
• – Represents zero (page image/print only)• D Withheld to avoid disclosing data of individual companies; data are included in higher level totals• S Withheld to avoid releasing data that do not meet publication standards; data are included in broader
industry totals.• X Not applicable• a 0 to 19 employees• b 20 to 99 employees• c 100 to 249 employees• e 250 to 499 employees• f 500 to 999 employees• g 1,000 to 2,499 employees• h 2,500 to 4,999 employees• i 5,000 to 9,999 employees• j 10,000 to 24,999 employees• k 25,000 to 49,999 employees• l 50,000 to 99,999 employees• m 100,000 employees or more