Economic Downturn in Relation to HE Information and Library

Services

Richard Parsons

r.parsons@dundee.ac.ukDirector, Library & Learning Centre

Notes Influential articles

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/24/uk-recession-oecd

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8078915.stm http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/quantitative_easing.php

Independent newspaper budget presentation

Therefore:Significant public sector contraction – 10% - 15%?

Macroeconomics

Deflation Hyperinflation

•Private sector spending •Public sector spending

Recession shapes

Shape of recession – V, U, W, bathtub?

Resource costs and staff costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1997 2007

Institutional

Lib. Total

Lib. Staff

Lib. Resources

Resource costs and staff costs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1997 2007

Lib. Total

Lib. Staff

Lib. Resources

Staff Costs

On costs increasing from 18% to 33% Grade 9 salary maximum from £34k in 1998 to £52k in 2008 Pension liabilities and benefits are significant (e.g. USS up from 14% to 16%)

Outline Likely realities

International, national environment University learning and teaching University research University administration

Appropriate responses Increase income Decrease expenditure

Summary

Economic implications

International, national environment All recognising role of universities International student numbers to hold up (PGs) A major income earner for UK Visa, access challenges not welcomed IT and Libraries become more important as international student centres

Economic implications

University Learning and Teaching Demographic downturn but:

Less employment Higher skill expectation More years at University

Increased student fees Increased graduate debt Potential PG (export) activity

Economic implications

University Research Universities are net producers of research Author pays model costs us more Particularly for Western universities Public sector downturn, extra severe in the research sector?

Economic implications

University Third Stream Yes of course But challenging to sustain

Likely Sector Responses

Enhance Income• Protect (appoint) academic staff• Support academic staff (be recognised)• Third stream income sources

(charges?)

Reduce Expenditure Software and serials provision Traditional and e-books Automation, staff light approaches Collaborations summary

Reducing Expenditure

Software and serials provision Reduce duplication Rigorously pursue licencing (expect 0% increases) Coordinate UK actions Ignore exchange rate fluctuations Efficiently use ILL or alternatives Research pooling opportunties Prepare for author pays models

Reducing Expenditure

Traditional and e-Books

Fewer copies? Schwarzenegger solution Reduce storage Trend is well underway http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1191831/Rise-

machines-Arnold-Schwarzenegger-terminates-school-books-tells-pupils-digital.html

Reducing Expenditure

Automation, staff light approaches

RFID /self issue investment Reduced staffing levels – 1 person? No staff, secure solutions eResources are 24/7

http://www.intellident.co.uk/4.00/en/sm_smartServeLite.php

Reducing Expenditure

Collaborations Purchasing collaborations (Book consortia, SHEDL, Wales, Greater London). Sharing collaborations – book borrowing, digitisation costs. Storage– UKRR, local stores, last copy in Scotland. Procedural collaborations – tenders, policies, learning objects Academic collaborations – learning objects, research methods, teaching protocols. Shared services – repositories, LMS, VLEs, etc.

Worst Case Summary Information

Books eBooks, stores reduction Journal cuts, including bundles Cost effective open access

Infrastructure Further diversification of services Utilise the assets Software consolidation (reduction) Delays/cancellation for capital projects

Staff Limited new appointments Converged services, trimming management and administration Staff time pressures very real

Conclusion

Information Services, Library

A return to core values: Learning and teaching Research

Our core values are the raw materials of the recovery