Economics Call

November 2, 2009

• Case Shiller home price index was up for the 3rd straight month

• New Home Sales were down in September – This industry has mixed data

• Orders for Core Capital Good were up 2%– Big number for the series – This figure excludes aircraft and defense

Economic News

• Real GDP was up 3.5%

Economic News

• Consumer Confidence fell in October to 70.6% (it was 73.5%)

• Labor Cost Index was up 4% for the quarter• Consumer Spending in the fourth quarter might be

offset by business spending • ISM Manufacturing Index was sharply up on Monday

– Rose to 55.7 from 52.6 in September– The highest level since April of 2006

Economic news

• Tuesday– Auto and Truck sale Reports

• Wednesday– ISM Services – Press release from FOMC meeting

• Thursday – Productivity

• Output per hour, it has been very strong and almost double the figure in a normal economy

• It is likely that with high productivity numbers will come high profits and therefore an increase in Stock Prices

• Friday– Non Farm Payroll– Average work week (this has not turned up yet)

Numbers to Look For

• S&P dropped 4%, it is down 5.66% from its peak and 2% for the month of October– Financials were down 6.23%– Basic materials were down 7%– Telecommunications were down 1.5%

• This was the best performing sector of last week

• Many economists are worried about the strength of the recovery– However private demand is picking up along with the Global

economy

• CIT group filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Last Week