Educause 2012 talk

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Text of Educause 2012 talk

  • Bigfoot, Goldilocks, and Moonshots:A Report From the Frontiers of Personalized LearningJosh Jarrett, Deputy Director November 7th, 2012
  • My frame of reference Motivations:Private sector: Increased access to Strategy and management opportunity consultant Hard problems Software entrepreneur Impatient actors MBA Enlightened self interestNonprofit sector: Consultant to National Park Service, charter schools, and health services Foundation program officer innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • In the end, the American dream is not a sprint, or even a marathon, but a relay. Our families dont always cross the finish line in the span of one generation. But each generation passes on to the next the fruits of their labor. Julian Castro Mayor, San Antonio 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • Education is the pathway to opportunity inthe U.S. Intergenerational correlation between parent and childrens income, by transmission channel 100% 12-39% 1-28% 3% 5% 8% 14% 30% Education Race of Health State of Female- Financial Unexplained Total inter- of parents head of status of residence headed assets (e.g., generational household parents household motivation, correlation = social 0.431 networks, (1.0 would community, be perfectly norms) correlated)Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, Understanding Mobility in America 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • Higher education is not equitably distributed Bachelors Degree attainment by age 24Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009. 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • Economic competitiveness argues for moreeducation as wellSource: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs andEducation Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
  • Degree attainment is flat % of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007) 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64) 1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%) 2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%) 3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%) 4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%) 5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%) 6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%) 7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%) 8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%) 9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%) Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2009 (All rates are self-reported) 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |7
  • Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning Non-traditional new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning Non-traditional new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • We have made impressive strides in improvingcollege access Fall FTE (Full Time Equivalent) Enrollment by Sector, 1987-2009 Total % Period % Change Change 1987-1993 1993-2001 2001-2009 1987-2009 15M 29% 49% 184% 447% For-profit 10% 9% 19% 43% 10 Private 4 year 11% 4% 18% 37% Public 4 year 5 27% 5% 22% 62% Public 2 year 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database
  • but enrollment