Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management

Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management

Guenter ConzelmannCenter for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems AnalysisDecision and Information Sciences Division (DIS)Argonne National Laboratory9700 South Cass AvenueArgonne, IL 60439

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ITERATION

SupplyDemandBalance

ImpactsAnalysis

ReviewEvaluate

EconomicAnalysis

EnergyDemandAnalysis

EnergyResourceEvaluation

EnergyTechnologyDefinition

Electricity Demand/Load Analysis is part of a Multi-Step Long-term Energy Planning Process

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The Analysis Typically Starts with Developing Macroeconomic Projections and Translating them into Projections of Future Demand/Load

Macro-EconomicInformation

Time-series extrapolationInput/output modelEconometric model

Other models

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Energy DemandFinal Energy (simple)

Useful Energy (advanced)

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Besides overall macroeconomics, drivers include sectoral shifts, absolute and relative price trends, technology/efficiency trends, behavior, etc.

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In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (1)

Typically, we see a distinct daily profile of consumption that often varies by season

Week 1 (Mo – Sun) Week 2 (Mo – Sun)

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In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (2)

We also usually observe an annual or seasonal variation in loads; may vary by region

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (1)

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Location of the load matters, particularly if transmission is congested; will impact benefits of smart-grid implementation

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Hourly Loads - Location A

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Hourly Loads - Location B

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Load Installed Capacity

The system is typically sized to reliably meet

this peak demand

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Understanding the Load Profile is Important for Generation System Expansion, or Investment Planning

The pattern/shape of the demand has a significant impact on the technology selection

Different technologies have different technical and economic characteristics and operational capabilities and limitations

Served by low-cost base load generators(e.g. nuclear)

Served by medium-cost flexiblegenerators (e.g., coal, combined cycles)

Served by high-cost generators(e.g., gas turbines), also peaking hydroor pumped storage

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New England(New Hampshire Electric Cooperative, 2008)

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In Order to Better Understand the Overall Load Pattern, it Helps to Decompose the Load into Different Components

IndustryIndustry TransportTransport

ResidentialResidential CommercialCommercial AgricultureAgriculture

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential

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Single Family - January, w/o Elec Heat

Peak Day Weekday Weekend0

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Single Family - July, w/o Elec Heat

Peak Day Weekday Weekend

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Multi Family - January, w/o Elec Heat


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Multi Family - July, w/o Elec Heat


Source: comed.com

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential

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Single Family - January, w/o Elec Heat

Peak Day Weekday Weekend0

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Single Family - July, w/o Elec Heat


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Multi Family - January, w/o Elec Heat


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Multi Family - July, w/o Elec Heat


Source: comed.com

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential (2)

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Single Family - January, with Elec Heat


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Multi Family - January, with Elec Heat


Source: comed.com

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Commercial

Source: comed.com

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Medium-Size Customer - January


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Medium-Size Customer - April


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Medium-Size Customer - July


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Medium-Size Customer -October


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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Industrial

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Very Large Customer - January


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Very Large Customer - April


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Very Large Customer - July


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Very Large Customer - October


Source: comed.com

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Street Lighting

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) Must consider how much and how quickly the

load evolves– Rate of PHEV penetration

Must consider locational considerations– Where is new load concentrated

– Will impact transmission congestion, as well as system operations, electricity prices, and carbon emissions

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PHEV

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WECC - April 2020 Moderate:Charge When Arriving @ Home

PHEV Moderate Baseload Base + PHEV Moderate

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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Charge When Arriving @ Home

PHEV Aggressive Baseload Base + PHEV Aggressive

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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Smart Charging

PHEV Aggressive SmartBaseloadBase + PHEV Aggressive Smart

Western InterconnectModel Representation

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles)

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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Charge When Arriving @ Home

PHEV Aggressive Baseload Base + PHEV Aggressive

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles)

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WECC April 2020 Aggressive PHEV Case:Smart Charging

PHEV Aggressive SmartBaseloadBase + PHEV Aggressive Smart

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Example Residential Electricity Consumption: What Happens behind the Socket in the Wall…

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Example Residential Electricity Consumption: When was the Last Time you Looked at your Utility Bill?

(and actually understood it….)

14 different fees, charges, taxes

May need to be a rocket scientist...

…or an Einstein

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Average Monthly Consumption (kWh)

U.S. Average Monthly Consumption (kWh)

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For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month?

U.S. Average: 920 kWh

Virginia:1,173 kWh

2008 Average Monthly Residential Electricity Consumption (kWh) by State

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For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (2)

Conzelmanns' Average Monthly Electricity Consumption (kWh) 1997-2007

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For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (3)

Conzelmanns' Monthly Electricity Consumption (kWh)1997-2007

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0.0

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HI CT NY MA RI AK ME NH NJ VT DE MD CA TX DC NV FL WI PA IL MI AL MS LA AZ CO OH NM GA SC MN VA NC IA AR MT OK TN KS IN OR SD UT WY MO KY NE WA ND WV ID

Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatthour)

U.S. Average Retail Price (Cents per Kilowatthour)

For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much You Pay for Electricity?

U.S. Average: 11.3 c/kWh

Virginia:9.6 c/kWh

(2008 Average Residential Electricity Price (c/kWh) by State)

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household

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Mon-Sun (June 9 - 15, 2008)

Hourly Energy Price ($/kWh) Hourly Consumption (kWh)

Negative price:-21 c/kWh

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household

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Negative25 cents/kWh

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Even More Detail Can be Added to Improve Understanding of Load Pattern and Identify Efficiency and DSM Potential

Air ConditioningAir Conditioning

AppliancesAppliances

LightingLighting

CookingCooking

WaterWaterheatingheating

SpaceSpaceheatingheating

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The Role of Demand Side Management (1)

Opportunities for demand side management drive investments in smart-grid and advanced metering infrastructure

Goal is to shift load to reduce peak loads– Flattens demand curve

– Reduces generation cost by shifting to low-cost base-load generation

– Reduces maintenance costs

– Avoids/delays infrastructure investments (generation, transmission, distribution)

– Can reduce overall consumption

Early DSM program (starting in 1980s) have primarily focused on commercial and industrial consumers– Mostly direct load control and tiered pricing

Smart-grid technology will impact DSM program focus– Shift from direct load control to dynamic pricing

– Inclusion of residential and small-to-medium businesses

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Direct load control or incentive-based approaches– E.g., interruptible/curtailment rates

Allows utilities to control specific loads (e.g., air conditioning)– Consumer receives billing discount (e.g., fixed monthly

payment for peak months)

Direct load control is offered by many utilities– One-third of utilities offer direct load contol for

residential AC

• Average participation 15%

– About two-thirds offer direct load control to industrial and commercial costumers

Programs have proven cost-effective with substantial savings– 29% average peak load reduction across a sample of

24 programs (Source: eMeter Strategic Consulting, 2007)

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Dynamic Pricing– Almost 1/3 of utilities offer some form of dynamic pricing

– Time of use, critical peak pricing, real-time pricing

– Current pilot programs show significant variation in residential peak load reduction with an average of about 22%

– Impact on overall consumption may be very small

Consumption information and transparency– More frequent billing: Weekly/daily billing estimated to

reduce consumption by 10-13%

– In-home displays, estimated to save 4-15%

– Smart-appliances and building automation may lead to peak reductions of over 40% and a decrease in consumption of about 11%

– Where is my dishwasher control app, my real-time price app???

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)

Loadguard Price Point10 cents/kWh14 cents/kWh

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Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (AFTER)

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Monthly Savings: Real-time Pricing versus Regulated Tariff

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A Couple of Thoughts on my Personal Real-time Pricing Experiment Substantial cost savings, energy savings unclear

Potential for information overload

Feedback is slow (delayed by a month)

Thermal comfort is compromised

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Summary

Load profiles play an important role in power system planning

When projecting future loads, changes in the load shape will have to be considered– Due to technology changes (e.g., smart-grid)

– Due to technology introduction (e.g., electric vehicles)

– Due to market/consumer incentives (new pricing mechanisms)

Energy efficiency and demand side management can play a significant role in shaping future load levels and profiles

Documents

Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management