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Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor, Lunds Universitet Senior Advisor, AB Volvo Thematic Leader, Swedish Hybrid Research Centre

Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

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Page 2: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Born 1961 – 56 years old

Married, 3 children

Two homes:

– One in Gothenburg

– One in Lund

MSc El Eng 1986 from Chalmers

PhD 1993 from Lund University

Professor in Industrial Electrical Engineering since 1994 in Lund

Specialisation:

– Control of Electrical Drives

– Design of Electrical Machines

– Control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles

– Charging ...

Who am I?

Page 3: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

CO2 & Energy Supply

Page 4: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

“… - it's as if no-one is listening to the scientific community!”

“- We need a radical plan!“ – Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall

Centre for Climate Change Research

UN Climate Conf in DOHA

400 ppm CO2 measured last week at Hawaii by NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Risc of slowed down Gulf Stream

Is CO2 out of control?

Page 5: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Not a Fossil Future … Source Amount *)

Oil [barrels] 2.00E+12Oil [kWh] 3.40E+15

Coal [tons] 9.98E+11Coal [kWh] 7.31E+15

Natural Gas [quads] 6.37E+03Natural Gas [kWh] 1.87E+15

*) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserves-to-production_ratio

Known reserves Predicted Population Growth

Predicted Reserves

Increased average standard of living

Fossil Fuel will not be a viable

option in a near future !

Known Consumption 35 W/kg (World average)… 129 W/kg (US average)

1 W/kg

Page 6: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Means for CO2 reduction in road transport ...

Conventional, improved … - 40 % CO2 (VERY expensive!)

Conventional, hybridized … - 40 % CO2

Conventional, Bio Fuel … - Is there enough Bio Fuel?

Full electric, renewable electricity … - How to? - Energy from ?

Page 7: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Will there be enough Biofuel?

Ref: EU ENERGY IN FIGURES 2010 CO2 Emissions from Transport by Mode

Page 8: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

We fill our vehicles with 75 TWh of gasoline and diesel every year.

If electric, the same vehicles would need about 25 TWh of electricity

We generate about 130...140 TWh every year.

No – Energy is not a limit!

IF we fill 1/365’th of the daily energy in:

– 8 hours (night time charging) = 9 GW

– 16 hours (distributed charging) = 4.5 GW

Our maximum Power capacity is 28 GW.

– Power may be a problem! – Scheduling is important – then it will work!

– Updating the distyribution grid necessary.

Is the electric power system a limit?

Page 10: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

2: Hybridisation

Page 12: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

0 500 1000 1500 2000 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Engine Speed [rpm]

En

gin

e to

rqu

e [N

m]

5 5 5 10 10 20

Engine use in a heavy hybrid vehicle

Higher gear

Hig

her

torq

ue

60 kW extra power

to charge battery

Adaptation of engine operating point … but also: Regeneration of braking energy

Page 14: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Static

and

Dynamic Charging

Page 15: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

The Energy Path

Electro Mobility Perspective150626 Penta, Mats Alaküla

Page 16: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

A Bus example

Electro Mobility Perspective150626 Penta, Mats Alaküla

OFF Board High Power Charger • High cost off board

• (currently 7 k€/kW, excl installation) • Low cost on board

ON Board High Power Charger • Low cost off board

• (< 1k€/kW, excluding installation) • Moderate cost On Board

• Renault Cars @ 150 € for 43 kW by integration !!! • Renault now aiming for 80 kW with robotic connection)

• Robotic Connector To Be Developed

Page 17: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Static Connections ...

Size

Pow

er

1 dm 1...2 m

3 kW

44 kW

87 kW

120 kW

200 kW

Something is missing HERE !!!

Automatic

Electro Mobility Perspective150626 Penta, Mats Alaküla

This can change the game!

Page 18: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Tesla’s idea...

Page 19: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

The Gardening industry is leading ...

IQPC 2016-04-19, Mats Alaküla

Page 20: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Electro mobility is important

Page 21: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

A 100 year old technology is up for a

new round ...

Page 23: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Almost everybody is involved ...

Page 24: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Towards 100 $/kWh

– On System level

– Energy Optimised

– 5000 cycles lifetime @ 80 % DoD

Battery wear cost = 100/(5000*0.8) = 0.025 $/kWh

Electric energy cost = 0.03 $/kWh from solar!

Battery Wear + Energy = 0.055 $/kWh

Compare to Fossil, in Sweden = 0.1 $/kWh (@ much lower efficiency!!!)

So, with near future battery cost it´s OK!

Other driving forces .... Battery System Cost

1) Frost and Sullivan: ” Who will with the battle between BEVs, PHEVs & FCEVs? “, Feb 2017 2) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-energy-hits-a-turning-point-solar-that-s-cheaper-than-wind, Mars 10 2017

1)

2)

Page 25: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Resources – For batteries it is Lithium

and Cobolt Charging infrastructure

investment and density Electric Power System

Energy and Power Capacity Alternatives

– Electrofuels

Obstacles?

Page 26: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

There are >1 billion cars in the world, Assume 100 kWh/vehicle Assume 200 g Lithium/kWh 1)

= 20 million tonnes of pure Lithium needed Resources? 14 million Tonnes 2)

Maybe / Maybe not?

A method to reduce the need for batteries is

attractive!

Lithium ...

2) https://www.usgs.gov/ 1) www.meridian-int-res.com/

Page 27: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

There are >1 billion cars in the world, Assume 100 kWh/vehicle Assume 100 g Cobolt/kWh

= 10 million tonnes of pure Cobolt needed Cobolt is in supply deficit 2016 ...

Maybe / Maybe not?

A method to reduce the need for batteries is

attractive!

Cobolt...

Page 28: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

It is NOT like we think...

0 5 10 15 20 25 >30 [mil]

Dagar med viss körsträcka

Example: 1:342 Norway: 1:80

Page 29: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Some math ...

15 600 km National and European road; C:a 10 MSEK/km -> 156 billionSEK 20 års lifetime -> 8 billion SEK/år +20 % batteries +2 % underhåll

Compare to: 5 millioner cars á 75 kWh batteries á

1000...2000 SEK/kWh -> 375...750 bilion SEK

10 years lifetime = 37...75 billion SEK/year

-> 19...26 billion SEK /year

Page 30: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

4 h @150 kW = 600 kWh 5...10 ton batteries 800 kW in 45 min Automation needed! No commercial solution

in sight!

200 km = 200 kWh 2 ton batteries Charge @ night

? 5x5

Less chargers Longer ”charging” time

= 25x less avaialability

Page 31: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

The reinvented trolley will reduce the need for

batteries!

Page 32: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Siemens/Scania

Elways

Alstom/Volvo

Elonroad

-80 % battery size ! Elonroad

Siemens

Page 33: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Activated in sections ... • Activated ”step by step” • Needs little precision • Overtaking on battery • Reduced battery range

• Sweden: D = 50 km

D

A

B

A

B

Remember: - ERS reduce the need for batteries to 1/10th

” 50 km instead of 500 km ” IQPC 2016-04-19, Mats Alaküla

Page 34: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Driving Modes with “Slide In”

100 90

40 30

0

SOC (State Of Charge = Battery Charge Level)

time

1 Electric Drive from Battery

2 Hybrid Drive

3 Electric Drive from ERS

Slide In Track Available

[%]

Page 35: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Additional equipment needed

Tank Engine Transmission Wheel

Battery Electric Drive

Pick Up Electric Power Conditioner

Power Supply

Transformer

Conventional vehicle Hybrid Vehicle Plug In Hybrid Vehicle Slide In Hybrid Vehicle

Page 36: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Conductive ERS concepts

Honda Elways Alstom Elonroad Siemens

Page 37: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

If ALL cars in Sweden were a ”Tesla”: – 2 million m3 batteries

If ALL HDT were equipped fo 4h full electric mode – 0.2 millioner m3 batteries

IF we stack these as a cone ...? – With the same base as the Eiffel-tower ...

Societal value ...

325 meter

472 meter

47 meter

125 m

? m

4x

ERS

cost

Page 39: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Societal Cost

Page 40: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

40

Different alternatives …

5 M cars, 14 k urban buses, 20 k city distribution trucks, 65 k long haulers

All electromobility related equipment costs estimated in detail

Battery cost: 100 € / kWh

Battery range for cars: 250 km (72 kWh) vs. 50 km (15 kWh)

Amortisation time: 10 years for on-board equipment, 15 years for infrastructure

1 2 3

Page 41: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

41

Kostnaden för olika laddlösningar …

Batterikostnaden mycket konservativt beräknad

Personbilarna viktiga!

Large batteries Overhead ERS Road-bound ERS

1 2 3

Page 42: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Where should we do it?

Page 43: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Based on the estimated efficiencies for a passenger car / truck ICE drivetrain

Some results ... If we do with Diesel what we can do with 1 kWh

of electricity, this is the equivalent diesel cost

ÅDT = Average Daily Traffic flow (Års-Dygns-Trafik)

Page 44: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

The cost of all ...

... Electric energy

... needed to fulfill a certain ÅDT of Vehicles / Heavy Vehicles on a km of road

... expressed in €/kWh supplied or converted energy

... Off board equipment ... EV equipment

Page 45: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Only Trucks on ERS (Case 2)

Page 46: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

All on ERS (Case 3)

> 870 Trucks > 3 500 Cars

Page 47: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

Electromobility is growing FAST! New battery technology + Solar power

makes it competitive! BUT, there are obstacles:

– The charging infrastructure density is a problem

– Lithium and Cobalt sourcing is a problem

– The electric power supply may be a problem, but not the energy

However, there are solutions too: – Dynamic Charging (Electric Road

System) reduce the need for batteries with up to 90 %

Summary

Page 48: Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid ht17/Lectures/EHS_L1_2017_intro... · 2017. 9. 11. · Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor,

- Thank You!