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Electromobility in the Future ”Electric Hybrid Systems” Mats Alaküla Professor, Lunds Universitet Senior Advisor, AB Volvo Thematic Leader, Swedish Hybrid Research Centre
Born 1961 – 56 years old
Married, 3 children
Two homes:
– One in Gothenburg
– One in Lund
MSc El Eng 1986 from Chalmers
PhD 1993 from Lund University
Professor in Industrial Electrical Engineering since 1994 in Lund
Specialisation:
– Control of Electrical Drives
– Design of Electrical Machines
– Control of Hybrid Electric Vehicles
– Charging ...
Who am I?
CO2 & Energy Supply
“… - it's as if no-one is listening to the scientific community!”
“- We need a radical plan!“ – Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research
UN Climate Conf in DOHA
400 ppm CO2 measured last week at Hawaii by NOAA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Risc of slowed down Gulf Stream
Is CO2 out of control?
Not a Fossil Future … Source Amount *)
Oil [barrels] 2.00E+12Oil [kWh] 3.40E+15
Coal [tons] 9.98E+11Coal [kWh] 7.31E+15
Natural Gas [quads] 6.37E+03Natural Gas [kWh] 1.87E+15
*) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserves-to-production_ratio
Known reserves Predicted Population Growth
Predicted Reserves
Increased average standard of living
Fossil Fuel will not be a viable
option in a near future !
Known Consumption 35 W/kg (World average)… 129 W/kg (US average)
1 W/kg
Means for CO2 reduction in road transport ...
Conventional, improved … - 40 % CO2 (VERY expensive!)
Conventional, hybridized … - 40 % CO2
Conventional, Bio Fuel … - Is there enough Bio Fuel?
Full electric, renewable electricity … - How to? - Energy from ?
Will there be enough Biofuel?
Ref: EU ENERGY IN FIGURES 2010 CO2 Emissions from Transport by Mode
We fill our vehicles with 75 TWh of gasoline and diesel every year.
If electric, the same vehicles would need about 25 TWh of electricity
We generate about 130...140 TWh every year.
No – Energy is not a limit!
IF we fill 1/365’th of the daily energy in:
– 8 hours (night time charging) = 9 GW
– 16 hours (distributed charging) = 4.5 GW
Our maximum Power capacity is 28 GW.
– Power may be a problem! – Scheduling is important – then it will work!
– Updating the distyribution grid necessary.
Is the electric power system a limit?
Convenient! – Similar/same infrastructure and
drive train as fossil
Less efficient! – Requires a REAL surplus
”Electro Fuels”
90%
90%
50% 80% 40%
+
80%
El till BorHydrid (67%) BorHydrid + Kat + Vatten ger Väte Väte genom FC 55% El-El (37%)
2: Hybridisation
What is a hybrid vehicle?
Electric machine ICE
Charge sustaining hybrid
”PlugIn”- Charging
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Engine Speed [rpm]
En
gin
e to
rqu
e [N
m]
5 5 5 10 10 20
Engine use in a heavy hybrid vehicle
Higher gear
Hig
her
torq
ue
60 kW extra power
to charge battery
Adaptation of engine operating point … but also: Regeneration of braking energy
Potential Fuel Saving Refuse Truck
20 % 5 %
30-40 % 20-50 %
Wheel loader City Bus
Long Haul Truck
Static
and
Dynamic Charging
The Energy Path
Electro Mobility Perspective150626 Penta, Mats Alaküla
A Bus example
Electro Mobility Perspective150626 Penta, Mats Alaküla
OFF Board High Power Charger • High cost off board
• (currently 7 k€/kW, excl installation) • Low cost on board
ON Board High Power Charger • Low cost off board
• (< 1k€/kW, excluding installation) • Moderate cost On Board
• Renault Cars @ 150 € for 43 kW by integration !!! • Renault now aiming for 80 kW with robotic connection)
• Robotic Connector To Be Developed
Static Connections ...
Size
Pow
er
1 dm 1...2 m
3 kW
44 kW
87 kW
120 kW
200 kW
Something is missing HERE !!!
Automatic
Electro Mobility Perspective150626 Penta, Mats Alaküla
This can change the game!
Tesla’s idea...
The Gardening industry is leading ...
IQPC 2016-04-19, Mats Alaküla
Electro mobility is important
A 100 year old technology is up for a
new round ...
...
...
>600 kg
120 kW
> 3 ton 600 kW
Fuel Cell
”Trolley”
Almost everybody is involved ...
Towards 100 $/kWh
– On System level
– Energy Optimised
– 5000 cycles lifetime @ 80 % DoD
Battery wear cost = 100/(5000*0.8) = 0.025 $/kWh
Electric energy cost = 0.03 $/kWh from solar!
Battery Wear + Energy = 0.055 $/kWh
Compare to Fossil, in Sweden = 0.1 $/kWh (@ much lower efficiency!!!)
So, with near future battery cost it´s OK!
Other driving forces .... Battery System Cost
1) Frost and Sullivan: ” Who will with the battle between BEVs, PHEVs & FCEVs? “, Feb 2017 2) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-15/world-energy-hits-a-turning-point-solar-that-s-cheaper-than-wind, Mars 10 2017
1)
2)
Resources – For batteries it is Lithium
and Cobolt Charging infrastructure
investment and density Electric Power System
Energy and Power Capacity Alternatives
– Electrofuels
Obstacles?
There are >1 billion cars in the world, Assume 100 kWh/vehicle Assume 200 g Lithium/kWh 1)
= 20 million tonnes of pure Lithium needed Resources? 14 million Tonnes 2)
Maybe / Maybe not?
A method to reduce the need for batteries is
attractive!
Lithium ...
2) https://www.usgs.gov/ 1) www.meridian-int-res.com/
There are >1 billion cars in the world, Assume 100 kWh/vehicle Assume 100 g Cobolt/kWh
= 10 million tonnes of pure Cobolt needed Cobolt is in supply deficit 2016 ...
Maybe / Maybe not?
A method to reduce the need for batteries is
attractive!
Cobolt...
It is NOT like we think...
0 5 10 15 20 25 >30 [mil]
Dagar med viss körsträcka
Example: 1:342 Norway: 1:80
Some math ...
15 600 km National and European road; C:a 10 MSEK/km -> 156 billionSEK 20 års lifetime -> 8 billion SEK/år +20 % batteries +2 % underhåll
Compare to: 5 millioner cars á 75 kWh batteries á
1000...2000 SEK/kWh -> 375...750 bilion SEK
10 years lifetime = 37...75 billion SEK/year
-> 19...26 billion SEK /year
4 h @150 kW = 600 kWh 5...10 ton batteries 800 kW in 45 min Automation needed! No commercial solution
in sight!
200 km = 200 kWh 2 ton batteries Charge @ night
? 5x5
Less chargers Longer ”charging” time
= 25x less avaialability
The reinvented trolley will reduce the need for
batteries!
Siemens/Scania
Elways
Alstom/Volvo
Elonroad
-80 % battery size ! Elonroad
Siemens
Activated in sections ... • Activated ”step by step” • Needs little precision • Overtaking on battery • Reduced battery range
• Sweden: D = 50 km
D
A
B
A
B
Remember: - ERS reduce the need for batteries to 1/10th
” 50 km instead of 500 km ” IQPC 2016-04-19, Mats Alaküla
Driving Modes with “Slide In”
100 90
40 30
0
SOC (State Of Charge = Battery Charge Level)
time
1 Electric Drive from Battery
2 Hybrid Drive
3 Electric Drive from ERS
Slide In Track Available
[%]
Additional equipment needed
Tank Engine Transmission Wheel
Battery Electric Drive
Pick Up Electric Power Conditioner
Power Supply
Transformer
Conventional vehicle Hybrid Vehicle Plug In Hybrid Vehicle Slide In Hybrid Vehicle
Conductive ERS concepts
Honda Elways Alstom Elonroad Siemens
If ALL cars in Sweden were a ”Tesla”: – 2 million m3 batteries
If ALL HDT were equipped fo 4h full electric mode – 0.2 millioner m3 batteries
IF we stack these as a cone ...? – With the same base as the Eiffel-tower ...
Societal value ...
325 meter
472 meter
47 meter
125 m
? m
4x
ERS
cost
Societal Cost
40
Different alternatives …
5 M cars, 14 k urban buses, 20 k city distribution trucks, 65 k long haulers
All electromobility related equipment costs estimated in detail
Battery cost: 100 € / kWh
Battery range for cars: 250 km (72 kWh) vs. 50 km (15 kWh)
Amortisation time: 10 years for on-board equipment, 15 years for infrastructure
1 2 3
41
Kostnaden för olika laddlösningar …
Batterikostnaden mycket konservativt beräknad
Personbilarna viktiga!
Large batteries Overhead ERS Road-bound ERS
1 2 3
Where should we do it?
Based on the estimated efficiencies for a passenger car / truck ICE drivetrain
Some results ... If we do with Diesel what we can do with 1 kWh
of electricity, this is the equivalent diesel cost
ÅDT = Average Daily Traffic flow (Års-Dygns-Trafik)
The cost of all ...
... Electric energy
... needed to fulfill a certain ÅDT of Vehicles / Heavy Vehicles on a km of road
... expressed in €/kWh supplied or converted energy
... Off board equipment ... EV equipment
Only Trucks on ERS (Case 2)
All on ERS (Case 3)
> 870 Trucks > 3 500 Cars
Electromobility is growing FAST! New battery technology + Solar power
makes it competitive! BUT, there are obstacles:
– The charging infrastructure density is a problem
– Lithium and Cobalt sourcing is a problem
– The electric power supply may be a problem, but not the energy
However, there are solutions too: – Dynamic Charging (Electric Road
System) reduce the need for batteries with up to 90 %
Summary
- Thank You!