Emerging Technologies and the Web Finding a Balance Between Possibility and Reality Brad Kasell [email protected]

Emerging Technologies and the WebFinding a Balance Between Possibility and Reality

Brad [email protected]

“We don't know a millionth of one percent about anything”

- Thomas A. Edison

“What sets the new technologies apart from those of the Internet’s first generation is their canny way of turning self-interest into social

benefit - and real economic value.”

- Business Week, June 2005

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Possibility vs Reality The Web Today The Nature of the Possibility Social Networking

The Architecture of Participation

Web Services and SOAThe Architecture of Integration

Open Source EverythingThe Architecture of Contribution

The Web Today

“The next big thing is not my concern”

– Blake Ross, Lead Architect, Firefox

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Small is the New Big

Skype128 Million Downloads

10.4 Billion Minutes Served

GreasemonkeyThe Web, Your Way

Is to the Deep Web What Hypertext is to Documents

Del.icio.us“Folksonomies”

Contextual Filter for the Web

“I knew it was over when I downloaded Skype,” Michael Powell, chairman, Federal Communications

Commission, explained.

“When the inventors of KaZaA are distributing for free a little program that you can use to talk to anybody

else, and the quality is fantastic, and it’s free – it’s over.

The world will change now inevitably.”

- Fortune Magazine, February 2004

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The Rise of the Platforms

Web 2.0? Try 3.01.0 The Read-Only Web

2.0 The Interactive Web

3.0 The Programmable Web

PlatformsYahoo, Amazon, eBay

Google Everything

Internet Operating SystemOf All Things - YubNub?

A Command Line for the Web

The Nature of the Possibility

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The Hype Cycle

In the hype cycle, failure always precedes success

- Graeme Philipson, Sydney Morning Herald

Source: Gartner Group

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10 1000

Sex

MP3

Shane Warne

1,000X

3%

97%

10,000,000

The Long Tail

Millions of Markets of Dozens Not pre-filtered by distribution

bottlenecks Inventory is "non-rivalrous“

Signal-to-noise problem is solvable with information tools

It's all about the diamonds, not the rough

Source: Joe Kraus, JotSpot

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The Long Tail (Cont.)

Three counterintuitive lessons of the Long Tail:

1. Niche content can be of higher quality than hit content.

2. It doesn't matter how much junk there is around those gems; with good filters, the average level of quality is irrelevant.

3. You can charge more for high-quality niche content because it is so well-suited to its audience.

Every single iTunes song has been bought at

least once

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Fixed, stable feature set

Evolvable, changes with requirements

Implied RequirementsHead Tail


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Architected


Evolved



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Architected Permanent


Evolved Disposable



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Architected Permanent 100k-1M users


Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users



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Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces


Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces



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Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic


Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined



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Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Generic


Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Specific



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Architected Permanent 100k-1M users Big pieces Monolithic Generic Lock-in


Evolved Disposable 1-1000 users Small pieces Loosely joined Specific Open



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Fixed, stable feature set, Architected, Permanent, 100k+ users, Big pieces

Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders

Changes with requirements, Evolved, Disposable, 1-1000 users, Small pieces

Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders



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Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Low-level tools


Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders High-level tools



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Monolithic Generic Lock-in Most users not builders Low-level tools

Complex, feature bloat


Loosely joined Specific Open Most users are builders High-level tools

Simple, few features (but right ones)



Social Networking

"There was a definite process by which one made people into friends, and it involved talking to them and listening to them for hours at a time.“

- Rebecca West

“The nearly 1 billion people online worldwide—along with their shared knowledge, social contacts, online reputations, computing power, and more—are rapidly becoming a collective force of unprecedented power.

For the first time in human history, mass cooperation across time and space is suddenly economical.”

- Business Week, June 2005

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Social Networks Orkut, Friendster, Plaxo, … Overhyped and not very useful

Blogs/Wikis Rise of RSS/Atom Overhyped, but powerful Intra-Enterprise blogging emerges

Social Bookmarking Del.icio.us, Furl, Flickr, … Almost too simple

Podcasting Overhyped, but some real gems

Social NetworkingOrganisational power lies in relationships between people, and in their collaboration.

Wikipedia.org

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Web Services and SOA

“SOA, AJAX and REST: The Software Industry Devolves into the Fashion Industry”

– Dare Obasanjo, Microsoft

“e-business is about rebuilding the organization from the ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet. Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an e-business.”

- Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins

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Web Services – What’s the Hype?

Source: Gartner Group

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Web Services and SOA

Standards?Specifications Based on NeedQuality of Implementation?

ArchitectureHouse vs SkyscraperBest vs Good Enough

Web ApplicationsWeb Services/SOAAJAX/RESTLAMP/PHP

“I have yet to see any problem, however

complicated, which, when you looked at it in the right way, did

not become still more complicated.”

- Poul Anderson

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RESTian Web Services Characteristics

Pull-based

Stateless/Cacheable/Layered

Uniform Interface (HTTP)

Named Resources (URL)

Interconnected Resource Representations Representations of the resources

are interconnected using URLs. Clients progress from one state to another.

Benefits Scales well Data transfer in streams of unlimited size and type Supports intermediaries (proxies and gateways) as data transformation

and caching components Concentrates the application state within the user agent components

REST requires you to rethink your problem in

terms of manipulations of addressable resources

instead of method calls to a component.

Open Source

“Give a little, take a lot.”

- Business Week, January 2005

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Open Source “Free” Software?

Not just Linux Development Models, Licensing,

Code Distribution, … Marketing Strategy = Lip Service

Community Model Usage vs Buy-in to Community

Model Philosophical vs Practical

Business Model Innovation Inhibitor? Sustainable?

JBoss: Only 3-5% customers buy support

Red Hat: 40% of profit from investment interest

Source: Daniel Lyons, Forbes

"Hack for the Dole"

CommunityCode is an Australian open source organisation that wants to help the unemployed receive credit for any

open source software development they do.

Why? Recipients of Centrelink's NewStart allowance can fulfil part or

all of their 'mutual obligation' requirements by doing volunteer work for a community organisation; second is that it might be useful for students

or other people starting out to get some "real live" development

experience.

- www.communitycode.org

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Open Source Hygiene

Guide to Open Source Software for Australian Government Agencies

http://www.agimo.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/42065/A_Guide_to_Open_Source_Software.pdf

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Open Source Considerations Risk: The market economy creates

accountability: Vendors that fail to fix flaws will eventually find themselves out of business.

Longevity: That is why customers feel more comfortable with brand-name vendors. It's not their marketing might that is appealing but their staying power.

Support: Customers want to know they will have the support they need when they need it.

Accountability: CIOs considering a move to open-source software need someone to hold accountable - someone who has the resources to address any problems that occur.

Funding: Venture capitalists pumped US$150 million into open source startups in 2004, triple the amount for 2003.

“There’s a fundamental shift in power happening. Everywhere,

people are getting together and, using the Internet,

disrupting whatever activities they’re involved in.”

- Pierre Omidyar, Founder, eBay