2007 Summer Outlook

Dave Ashuckian P.E.California Energy Commission

Joint MeetingMay 22, 2007

Energy Action Plan

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 2May 22, 2007

2007 Forecast of BPA Regional Surplus (by Water Year)

(2,000)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Jan-

07

Feb-

07

Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-

07

Jul-0

7

Aug-07

Sep-0

7

Oct-07

Nov-0

7

Dec-0

7

Surp

lus/

(Def

icit)

in M

W

Top 10 percent

Middle 80percent

Bottom 10percent

1937

Non-FirmExports to CAincluded inOutlook*

Source: 2006 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resource Study Technical Appendix Vol 2, Section 10 & 12

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 3May 22, 2007

2007 Peak System Reserves(Based on Planning Reserve Conventions)

(Megawatts)

NP 26 SP 26 CA ISO Statewide1 Existing Generation (Summer Derated) 24,417 21,848 46,265 57,8972 Retirements (Known) 0 0 0 03 High Probability CA Additions (Summer Derated) 74 429 503 6564 Net Interchange 500 10,100 10,600 13,1185 Total Net Generation (MW) 24,991 32,377 57,368 71,6716 1-in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Average) 21,100 28,374 48,289 60,3447 Demand Response (DR) 322 202 524 5248 Interruptible/Curtailable Programs 316 1,087 1,403 1,6039 Planning Reserve 21.5% 18.7% 22.8% 22.3%

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 4May 22, 2007

2007 Summer Monthly System ReservesResource Adequacy Planning Conventions June July August September1 Existing Generation 57,897 57,986 58,224 58,5532 Retirements (Known) 0 0 0 03 High Probability CA Additions 89 238 329 04 Net Interchange 13,118 13,118 13,118 13,1185 Total Net Generation (MW) 71,104 71,342 71,671 71,6716 1-in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Average) 57,125 59,726 60,344 59,4197 Demand Response (DR) 524 524 524 5248 Interruptible/Curtailable Programs 1,603 1,603 1,603 1,6039 Planning Reserve 28.2% 23.0% 22.3% 24.2%

Resource Adequacy Planning Conventions June July August September1 Existing Generation 46,265 46,354 46,592 46,7682 Retirements (Known) 0 0 0 03 High Probability CA Additions 89 238 176 0

Imports not carrying own reserves 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,2004 Net Interchange 10,600 10,600 10,600 10,6005 Total Net Generation (MW) 56,954 57,192 57,368 57,3686 1-in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Average) 46,148 48,138 48,289 47,8589 Planning Reserve 27.6% 22.8% 22.8% 23.9%

Probabilistic Range of:Demand

Forced OutagesTransmission Outages

Maximum52,9904,5353,784

Minimum43,211

1550

Statewide

CA ISO

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 5May 22, 2007

2007 Summer Monthly System ReservesResource Adequacy Planning Conventions June July August September1 Existing Generation 24,417 24,491 24,491 24,4912 Retirements (Known) 0 0 0 03 High Probability CA Additions 74 0 0 04 Net Interchange 500 500 500 5005 Total Net Generation (MW) 24,991 24,991 24,991 24,9916 1-in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Average) 20,653 21,098 20,815 20,0527 Demand Response (DR) 322 322 322 3228 Interruptible/Curtailable Programs 316 316 316 3169 Planning Reserve 24.1% 21.5% 23.1% 27.8%

Probabilistic Range of: MinimumDemand

Forced OutagesTransmission Outages

1 Existing Generation 21,848 21,863 22,101 22,2772 Retirements (Known) 0 0 0 03 High Probability CA Additions 15 238 176 04 Net Interchange 10,100 10,100 10,100 10,1005 Total Net Generation (MW) 31,963 32,201 32,377 32,3776 1-in-2 Summer Temperature Demand (Average) 26,044 27,612 28,050 28,3757 Demand Response (DR) 202 202 202 2028 Interruptible/Curtailable Programs 1,087 1,087 1,087 1,0879 Planning Reserve 27.7% 21.3% 20.0% 18.6%

Probabilistic Range of: MinimumDemand

Forced OutagesTransmission Outages

18,9791180

Maximum23,148

1,0003,371

Maximum31,7852,9603,053

25,1252130

CA ISO NP26

CA ISO SP26

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 6May 22, 2007

2007 Probability of Meeting Load CA ISO Control Area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Operating Reserve Margin

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty

Operating Reservewith Demand Responsewith DR & Interruptibles

Invo

lunt

ary

Load

Cur

tailm

ent

Volu

ntar

y In

terr

uptib

le L

oad

Volu

ntar

y D

eman

d R

espo

nse

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 7May 22, 2007

2007 Probability of Meeting Load CA ISO -- NP 26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Operating Reserve Margin

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty

Operating ReserveDemand ResponseDR and Interruptible Load

Invo

lunt

ary

Load

Cur

tailm

ent

Volu

ntar

y In

terr

uptib

le L

oad

Volu

ntar

y D

eman

d R

espo

nse

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 8May 22, 2007

2007 Probability of Meeting LoadCA ISO -- SP 26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Operating Reserve Margin

Cum

ulat

ive

Prob

abili

ty

Operating Reservewith Demand Responsewith DR & Interruptibles

Volu

ntar

y D

eman

d R

espo

nse

Volu

ntar

y In

terr

uptib

le L

oad

Invo

lunt

ary

Load

Cur

taile

d

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 9May 22, 2007

2007 Probability of Calling Load Reduction Programs on the Peak Day

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

CA ISO NP 26 SP 26

Voluntary Demand ResponseNeeded

Voluntary Interruptible LoadNeeded

Involuntary Load Curtailment

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 10May 22, 2007

2007 Probability of a Stage 3 Emergency

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

CA ISO NP 26 SP 26

Region

Prob

abili

ty

WECC Planning Standard

Energy CommissionPublic Utilities Commission 11May 22, 2007

Upcoming Activities/Next Steps

IEPR Committee Workshop on 2008 Peak Demand Forecast and Supply/Demand Outlook Methodology, May 24, 2007

Seeking comments on staff analyses 2008 peak forecastLong term probability of demand deviationWind capacity at time of system peakTransmission transfers NP 26 to SP 26Regional probability of loss of load using planning reserve targets