Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the ... · ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050 IAEA-RDS-1/33 ISBN 978–92–0–111910–0

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA

ISBN 978-92-0-111910-0ISSN 1011-2642 @

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 12013 Edition

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2050

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates for the period up to 2050

2013 Edition

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2013

ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050

IAEA-RDS-1/33ISBN 978–92–0–111910–0

ISSN 1011–2642

printed by the IAEA in AustriaAugust 2013

Cover photo credit:EDF-MEDIAThEQuE / ALEXIS MORIN / 2013

contents

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world (end of 2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricity generation in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Table 2. Number of countries with nuclear power reactors in operation or under construction (end of 2012) . . . . . . . . . 15Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generation and contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21Figure 3. percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement (EJ), percentage used for electricity generation, and percentage supplied by nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by type of fuel in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy requirement during the period 1970–2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricity generation by type of fuel in 2012 . . . . . . . . 36Table 9. percentage contribution of each fuel type to electricity generation in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region . . 39Figure 7. population estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the period 2002–2012 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during the period 2002–2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual

growth rates during the period 2012–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5

introductionReference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual

publication — currently in its thirty-third edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.

RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2012. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s power Reactor Information System (pRIS). however, energy and electricity data for 2012 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2010 only. population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2012 values again are estimates.

As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review.

Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as:

• Economic growth;• Correlation of economic growth and energy use;• Technology performance and costs;• Energy resource availability and future fuel prices;• Energy policy and physical, environmental and

economic constraints.

The projections presented in this publication are based on a compromise between:

• National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study;

6

• Indicators of development published by the world Bank in its world Development Indicators;

• Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations.

More specifically, the estimates of future nuclear generating capacity presented in Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts participating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear Capacity projections and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States. The experts consider all the operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next several decades. They build the projections project by project by assessing the plausibility of each in light of, first, the low projection’s assumptions and, second, the high projection’s assumptions.

The low and high estimates reflect contrasting, but not extreme, underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible.

The low case represents expectations about the future if current market, technology and resource trends continue and there are few additional changes in explicit laws, policies and regulations affecting nuclear power. This case was explicitly designed to produce a ‘conservative but plausible’ set of projections. Additionally, the low case does not automatically assume that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular country will necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case.

The high case projections are much more optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that current rates of economic and electricity demand growth, especially in the Far East, continue. Changes in country policies toward climate change are also included in the high case.

7

Over the short term, the low price of natural gas and the impact of increasing capacities of subsidized renewable energy sources are expected to impact nuclear growth prospects in some regions of the developed world. These low natural gas prices are partly due to low demand as a result of macroeconomic conditions as well as technological advances. Moreover, the ongoing financial crisis continues to present challenges for capital intensive projects such as nuclear power. The assumption adopted by the expert group was that the above mentioned challenges, in addition to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, are expected to temporarily delay deployment of some nuclear power plants. In the longer run, the underlying fundamentals of population growth and demand for electricity in the developing world, as well as climate change concerns, security of energy supply and price volatility for other fuels, continue to point to nuclear generating capacity playing an important role in the energy mix.

Over the past year, most countries have finalized their nuclear safety reviews, providing greater clarity with respect to nuclear power development. Nevertheless, challenges remain, given that policy responses to the Fukushima Daiichi accident are still evolving in some key regions. Once greater certainty about the policy and regulatory responses is established, these projections will likely need to be refined.

Compared with the 2012 projections to 2030, the 2013 projections were reduced by about 20 Gw(e)1 in both the low and high cases. These reductions continue to reflect responses to the Fukushima Daiichi accident and factors noted above, although the decline this year is less than in the two previous years. Some of the effects of the Fukushima Daiichi accident have included earlier than anticipated retirements, delayed or possibly cancelled new build, and increased costs owing to changing regulatory requirements. Nevertheless, interest in nuclear power remains strong in some regions, particularly in the developing world.

1 It should be kept in mind that there is a distinction between available capacity (supplying electricity to the grid) and installed nominal capacity not supplying electricity that may not be recognized in the published data.

8

energy units

1 Mw(e) = 106 watts (electrical)1 Gw(e) = 1000 Mw(e) = 109 watts (electrical)1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe)1 Tw·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kw·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ

N o r t h A m e r i c a C a n a d a * U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a *

L a t i n A m e r i c a A n g u i l l a H a i t i * A n t i g u a a n d B a r b u d a H o n d u r a s * A r g e n t i n a * J a m a i c a * A r u b a M a r t i n i q u e B a h a m a s M e x i c o * B a r b a d o s M o n t s e r r a t B e l i z e N e t h e r l a n d s A n t i l l e s B e r m u d a N i c a r a g u a * B o l i v i a * P a n a m a * B r a z i l * P a r a g u a y * C a y m a n I s l a n d s P e r u * C h i l e * P u e r t o R i c o C o l o m b i a * S. Georgia & S. Sandwich Islands C o s t a R i c a * S a i n t K i t t s a n d N e v i s C u b a * S a i n t L u c i a D o m i n i c a* S a i n t P i e r r e a n d M i q u e l o n D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c * S a i n t V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s E c u a d o r * S u r i n a m e E l S a l v a d o r * T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o G r e n a d a T u r k s a n d C a i c o s I s l a n d s G u a d e l o u p e U r u g u a y * G u a t e m a l a * V e n e z u e l a * G u y a n a

W e s t e r n E u r o p e A n d o r r a L i e c h t e n s t e i n * A u s t r i a * L u x e m b o u r g * B e l g i u m * M a l t a * C y p r u s * M o n a c o * D e n m a r k * N e t h e r l a n d s * F i n l a n d * N o r w a y * F r a n c e * P o r t u g a l * G e r m a n y * S a n M a r i n o G i b r a l t a r S p a i n * G r e e c e * S v a l b a r d a n d J a n M a y e n I s l a n d s G r e e n l a n d S w e d e n * H o l y S e e * S w i t z e r l a n d * I c e l a n d * T u r k e y * I r e l a n d * U n i t e d K i n g d o m * I t a l y *

G R O U P I N G O F C O U N T R I E S A N D A R E A S

T h e c o u n t r i e s a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p i n g a r e l i s t e d b e l o w

( I A E A M e m b e r S t a t e s a r e d e n o t e d b y a n a s t e r i s k )

*

*

with respect to projections to 2050, assumptions were made about the general rate of development and retirements. Given all the uncertainties, these estimates should be considered as suggestive of the actual outcomes.

The data on electricity produced by nuclear power plants are converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant (i.e. 33%); data on electricity generated by geothermal heat are converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a geothermal power plant (i.e. 10%). The conversion to joules of electricity generated by hydropower or by other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide and solar is based on the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming 100% efficiency).

The total energy requirement has been calculated by summing the primary energy production, the net energy trade minus changes in international bunkers and domestic stocks.

The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energy used for the generation of electricity. Owing to differences in conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are different from the shares of electricity generation presented in Tables 1 and 5.

9

N o r t h A m e r i c a C a n a d a * U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a *

L a t i n A m e r i c a A n g u i l l a H a i t i * A n t i g u a a n d B a r b u d a H o n d u r a s * A r g e n t i n a * J a m a i c a * A r u b a M a r t i n i q u e B a h a m a s M e x i c o * B a r b a d o s M o n t s e r r a t B e l i z e N e t h e r l a n d s A n t i l l e s B e r m u d a N i c a r a g u a * B o l i v i a * P a n a m a * B r a z i l * P a r a g u a y * C a y m a n I s l a n d s P e r u * C h i l e * P u e r t o R i c o C o l o m b i a * S. Georgia & S. Sandwich Islands C o s t a R i c a * S a i n t K i t t s a n d N e v i s C u b a * S a i n t L u c i a D o m i n i c a* S a i n t P i e r r e a n d M i q u e l o n D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l i c * S a i n t V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s E c u a d o r * S u r i n a m e E l S a l v a d o r * T r i n i d a d a n d T o b a g o G r e n a d a T u r k s a n d C a i c o s I s l a n d s G u a d e l o u p e U r u g u a y * G u a t e m a l a * V e n e z u e l a * G u y a n a

W e s t e r n E u r o p e A n d o r r a L i e c h t e n s t e i n * A u s t r i a * L u x e m b o u r g * B e l g i u m * M a l t a * C y p r u s * M o n a c o * D e n m a r k * N e t h e r l a n d s * F i n l a n d * N o r w a y * F r a n c e * P o r t u g a l * G e r m a n y * S a n M a r i n o G i b r a l t a r S p a i n * G r e e c e * S v a l b a r d a n d J a n M a y e n I s l a n d s G r e e n l a n d S w e d e n * H o l y S e e * S w i t z e r l a n d * I c e l a n d * T u r k e y * I r e l a n d * U n i t e d K i n g d o m * I t a l y *

G R O U P I N G O F C O U N T R I E S A N D A R E A S

T h e c o u n t r i e s a n d g e o g r a p h i c a l a r e a s i n c l u d e d i n e a c h g r o u p i n g a r e l i s t e d b e l o w

( I A E A M e m b e r S t a t e s a r e d e n o t e d b y a n a s t e r i s k )

*

*

10

AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundii* Morocco*Cameroo o n * Mozambique*Cape Verdee Namibia*Central Africaa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongoo* RwandaCôte d'II voire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho* Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*

Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*

Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia*Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr. Yug. Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*

*

*

*

*

M i d d l e E a s t a n d S o u t h A s i a A f g h a n i s t a n * K u w a i t * B a h r a i n* L e b a n o n * B a n g l a d e s h * N e p a l* B h u t a n O m a n* B r i t i s h I n d i a n O c e a n T e r r i t o r y P a k i s t a n * C o c o s ( K e e l i n g ) I s l a n d s Q a t a r * F r e n c h S o u t h e r n T e r r i t o r i e s S a u d i A r a b i a * Heard Island & McDonald Islands S r i L a n k a * I n d i a * S y r i a n A r a b R e p u b l i c * I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f * T . T . U . T . J o f T . P a l e s t i n i a n A . I r a q * U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s * I s r a e l * Y e m e n * J o r d a n *

S o u t h E a s t A s i a a n d t h e P a c i f i c A u s t r a l i a *

N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a I s l a n d s

B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m P a l a u* C o o k I s l a n d s P a p u a N e w G u i n e a* F i j i P i t c a i r n I s l a n d s I n d o n e s i a * S a m o a K i r i b a t i S i n g a p o r e * M a l a y s i a * S o l o m o n I s l a n d s M a l d i v e s T h a i l a n d * M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s * T i m o r L e s t e M i c r o n e s i a ( F e d . S t a t e s o f ) T o k e l a u M y a n m a r *

T u v a l u N e w Z e a l a n d * U S M i n o r O u t l y i n g I s l a n d s N i u e V a n u a t u N o r f o l k I s l a n d s W a l l i s a n d F u t u n a I s l a n d s

F a r E a s t C a m b o d i a* M a c a u , C h i n a C h i n a * M o n g o l i a * D e m . P . R . o f K o r e a P h i l i p p i n e s * J a p a n * T a i w a n , C h i n a K o r e a , R e p u b l i c o f * V i e t n a m * L a o P . D . R *.

*

Tonga

11

AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundii* Morocco*Cameroo o n * Mozambique*Cape Verdee Namibia*Central Africaa n Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongoo* RwandaCôte d'II voire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho* Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*

Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*

Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia*Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr. Yug. Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*

*

*

*

*

M i d d l e E a s t a n d S o u t h A s i a A f g h a n i s t a n * K u w a i t * B a h r a i n* L e b a n o n * B a n g l a d e s h * N e p a l* B h u t a n O m a n* B r i t i s h I n d i a n O c e a n T e r r i t o r y P a k i s t a n * C o c o s ( K e e l i n g ) I s l a n d s Q a t a r * F r e n c h S o u t h e r n T e r r i t o r i e s S a u d i A r a b i a * Heard Island & McDonald Islands S r i L a n k a * I n d i a * S y r i a n A r a b R e p u b l i c * I r a n , I s l a m i c R e p u b l i c o f * T . T . U . T . J o f T . P a l e s t i n i a n A . I r a q * U n i t e d A r a b E m i r a t e s * I s r a e l * Y e m e n * J o r d a n *

S o u t h E a s t A s i a a n d t h e P a c i f i c A u s t r a l i a *

N o r t h e r n M a r i a n a I s l a n d s

B r u n e i D a r u s s a l a m P a l a u* C o o k I s l a n d s P a p u a N e w G u i n e a* F i j i P i t c a i r n I s l a n d s I n d o n e s i a * S a m o a K i r i b a t i S i n g a p o r e * M a l a y s i a * S o l o m o n I s l a n d s M a l d i v e s T h a i l a n d * M a r s h a l l I s l a n d s * T i m o r L e s t e M i c r o n e s i a ( F e d . S t a t e s o f ) T o k e l a u M y a n m a r *

T u v a l u N e w Z e a l a n d * U S M i n o r O u t l y i n g I s l a n d s N i u e V a n u a t u N o r f o l k I s l a n d s W a l l i s a n d F u t u n a I s l a n d s

F a r E a s t C a m b o d i a* M a c a u , C h i n a C h i n a * M o n g o l i a * D e m . P . R . o f K o r e a P h i l i p p i n e s * J a p a n * T a i w a n , C h i n a K o r e a , R e p u b l i c o f * V i e t n a m * L a o P . D . R *.

*

Tonga

12

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2

15

30

8.

4

4.

7

W

este

rn E

urop

e

Bel

gium

7

59

27

38

.5

51

.0

Fin

land

4

27

52

1

1600

22.1

32.6

F

ranc

e58

6313

0

1

1600

407.

4

74

.8

Ger

man

y9

1206

8

94

.1

16

.1

Net

herl

ands

1

48

2

3.

7

4.

4

Spa

in8

7560

58.7

20.5

S

wed

en10

9395

61.5

38.1

S

wit

zerl

and

5

32

78

24

.4

35

.9

Uni

ted

King

dom

16

92

31

64

.0

18

.1

Ea

ster

n Eu

rope

A

rmen

ia1

375

2.1

26.6

B

ulga

ria

2

19

06

14

.9

31

.6

Cze

ch R

epub

lic6

3804

28.6

35.3

H

unga

ry4

1889

14.8

45.9

Long

-ter

m S

hut

Dow

n Re

acto

rsEl

ectr

icit

y Su

pplie

d by

Nuc

lear

Pow

er R

eact

ors

in 2

012

TABL

E 1.

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

TH

E W

ORL

D (

end

of 2

012)

Gro

up a

nd C

ount

ry

In O

pera

tion

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

Num

ber

of U

nits

Tota

l MW

(e)

TWh

Perc

ent

of

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

R

oman

ia2

1300

10.6

19.4

R

ussi

an F

eder

atio

n33

2364

3

10

8382

166.

3

17

.8

Slo

vaki

a4

1816

2

88

0

14

.4

53

.8

Slo

veni

a1

688

5.2

36.0

U

krai

ne15

1310

7

2

1900

84.9

46.2

Afr

ica

S

outh

Afr

ica

2

18

60

12

.4

5.

1

M

iddl

e Ea

st a

nd S

outh

Asi

a

Ind

ia20

4391

7

48

24

29

.7

3.

6

Ira

n, Is

lam

ic R

epub

lic o

f1

915

1.3

0.5

P

akis

tan

3

72

5

2

630

5.3

5.3

U

nite

d Ar

ab E

mir

ates

1

13

45

Fa

r Ea

st

Chi

na17

1286

0

29

2884

4

92

.7

2.

0

Jap

an50

4421

5

1

246

2

26

50

17

.2

2.

1

Kor

ea,

Repu

blic

of

23

20

739

4

49

80

14

3.5

30.4

Wor

ld T

otal

(*)

437

3730

69

1

246

66

63

337

2346

.3

11

.3

Not

es:

(*)

Incl

udin

g th

e fo

llow

ing

data

in T

aiw

an,

Chin

a:

— 6

uni

ts in

ope

rati

on w

ith

tota

l cap

acit

y of

501

8 M

W(e

); 2

uni

ts u

nder

con

stru

ctio

n w

ith

tota

l cap

acit

y of

260

0 M

W(e

);

Long

-ter

m S

hut

Dow

n Re

acto

rsEl

ectr

icit

y Su

pplie

d by

Nuc

lear

Pow

er R

eact

ors

in 2

012

—

38.

7 TW

h of

nuc

lear

ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion,

rep

rese

ntin

g 18

.4%

of

the

tota

l ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ed.

14

TABL

E 2.

NU

MBE

R O

F CO

UN

TRIE

S W

ITH

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

OPE

RATI

ON

OR

UN

DER

CO

NST

RUCT

ION

(en

d of

201

2)

Coun

try

Gro

upN

umbe

r of

Cou

ntri

es in

Gro

upCo

untr

ies

wit

h N

ucle

ar P

ower

Rea

ctor

sIn

Ope

rati

onLo

ng-t

erm

Shu

t D

own

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

(1)

Tota

l (2)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

2

2

1

2

Lati

n Am

eric

a45

3

2

3

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

29

9

2

9

East

ern

Euro

pe27

9

3

9

Afri

ca57

1

1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

25

3

3

4

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

29

Far

East

11

3

1

3

3

Wor

ld T

otal

225

30

1

14

31

Not

es:

(1)

May

incl

ude

coun

trie

s ha

ving

rea

ctor

s al

read

y in

ope

rati

on.

(2)

Tota

l num

ber

of c

ount

ries

in e

ach

grou

p th

at h

ave

nucl

ear

pow

er r

eact

ors

in o

pera

tion

, or

und

er c

onst

ruct

ion.

Note: the nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 18.4%.

FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2012

FRANCE

SLOVAKIA

BELGIUM

UKRAINE

HUNGARY

SWEDEN

SLOVENIA

SWITZERLAND

CZECH REPUBLIC

FINLAND

BULGARIA

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF

ARMENIA

SPAIN

ROMANIA

USA

UK

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GERMANY

CANADA

PAKISTAN

SOUTH AFRICA

ARGENTINA

MEXICO

NETHERLANDS

INDIA

BRAZIL

JAPAN

CHINA

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF

0 20 40 60 80 100

74.8

53.8

51.0

46.2

45.9

38.1

36.0

35.9

35.3

32.6

31.6

30.4

26.6

20.5

19.4

19.0

18.1

17.8

16.1

15.3

5.3

5.1

4.7

4.7

4.4

3.6

3.1

2.1

2.0

0.50

Nuclear Share (%)

15

TABL

E 2.

NU

MBE

R O

F CO

UN

TRIE

S W

ITH

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

REA

CTO

RS IN

OPE

RATI

ON

OR

UN

DER

CO

NST

RUCT

ION

(en

d of

201

2)

Coun

try

Gro

upN

umbe

r of

Cou

ntri

es in

Gro

upCo

untr

ies

wit

h N

ucle

ar P

ower

Rea

ctor

sIn

Ope

rati

onLo

ng-t

erm

Shu

t D

own

Und

er C

onst

ruct

ion

(1)

Tota

l (2)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

2

2

1

2

Lati

n Am

eric

a45

3

2

3

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

29

9

2

9

East

ern

Euro

pe27

9

3

9

Afri

ca57

1

1

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

25

3

3

4

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

29

Far

East

11

3

1

3

3

Wor

ld T

otal

225

30

1

14

31

Not

es:

(1)

May

incl

ude

coun

trie

s ha

ving

rea

ctor

s al

read

y in

ope

rati

on.

(2)

Tota

l num

ber

of c

ount

ries

in e

ach

grou

p th

at h

ave

nucl

ear

pow

er r

eact

ors

in o

pera

tion

, or

und

er c

onst

ruct

ion.

Note: the nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 18.4%.

FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2012

FRANCE

SLOVAKIA

BELGIUM

UKRAINE

HUNGARY

SWEDEN

SLOVENIA

SWITZERLAND

CZECH REPUBLIC

FINLAND

BULGARIA

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF

ARMENIA

SPAIN

ROMANIA

USA

UK

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GERMANY

CANADA

PAKISTAN

SOUTH AFRICA

ARGENTINA

MEXICO

NETHERLANDS

INDIA

BRAZIL

JAPAN

CHINA

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF

0 20 40 60 80 100

74.8

53.8

51.0

46.2

45.9

38.1

36.0

35.9

35.3

32.6

31.6

30.4

26.6

20.5

19.4

19.0

18.1

17.8

16.1

15.3

5.3

5.1

4.7

4.7

4.4

3.6

3.1

2.1

2.0

0.50

Nuclear Share (%)

17

TABL

E 3.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

AN

D N

UCL

EAR

ELEC

TRIC

AL

GEN

ERAT

ING

CA

PACI

TY

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

(a)

2030

(a)

2050

(a)

(b)

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

GW

(e)

%G

W(e

)%

Nor

th A

mer

ica

1198

115.

6

9.7

12

86

11

8

9.

2

1359

101

7.4

14

85

64

4.3

13

16

12

4

9.

4

1533

143

9.3

16

3

11

.0

Lati

n Am

eric

a34

4

4.

3

1.3

46

5

5

1.0

10

00

7

0.7

19

64

13

0.7

56

8

6

1.1

13

59

15

1.1

59

3.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

883

113.

8

12.9

1019

94

9.

2

1145

68

6.

0

1596

33

2.

1

1059

117

11.0

13

91

12

4

8.

9

137

8.6

East

ern

Euro

pe46

1

48

.5

10

.5

61

1

64

10

.5

668

79

11.9

95

3

79

8.

3

611

75

12.2

84

4

104

12.3

13

8

14

.5

Afri

ca14

1

1.

9

1.3

33

5

1.9

0.

6

683

5

0.7

22

72

10

0.4

36

2

1.9

0.

5

939

10

1.1

42

1.9

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

461

6.0

1.

3

564

13

2.3

14

82

27

1.8

51

27

47

0.9

89

2

22

2.

4

1763

54

3.

1

142

2.8

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

198

301

48

6

0

0.0

12

66

5

0.4

31

7

533

4

0.8

20

1.6

Far

East

1663

82.8

5.0

22

02

11

2

5.

1

2793

147

5.3

51

24

18

9

3.

7

2348

158

6.7

32

98

26

8

8.

1

412

8.0

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e53

48

37

3.1

7.

0

67

83

40

7

6.

0

96

17

43

5

4.

5

19

787

44

0

2.

2

H

igh

Esti

mat

e74

73

50

3

6.

7

11

660

72

2

6.

2

11

13

5.

6

Not

es:

(a)

Nuc

lear

cap

acit

y es

tim

ates

tak

e in

to a

ccou

nt t

he s

ched

uled

ret

irem

ent

of t

he o

lder

uni

ts a

t th

e en

d of

the

ir li

feti

me.

(b)

Pro

ject

ion

figu

res

for

tota

l ele

ctri

c ge

nera

ting

cap

acit

ies

are

the

arit

hmet

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

Tota

l Ele

ct.

GW

(e)

18

North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far East

America America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific

FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY

2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High Estimate Nuclear Contribution - Low Estimate

GW

(e)




2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


GW

(e)

19




2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


GW

(e)

TABL

E 4.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

AN

D C

ON

TRIB

UTI

ON

BY

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

(a)

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

TWh

%TW

h%

TWh

%TW

h%

Nor

th A

mer

ica

4645

859.

8

18.5

4904

928

18.9

5144

794

15.4

5675

514

9.1

4934

979

19.8

5254

1125

21.4

1312

23.1

Lati

n Am

eric

a14

04

29

.5

2.

1

20

46

35

1.

7

34

10

56

1.6

7134

105

1.5

2219

45

2.0

5017

115

2.3

475

6.7

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

3135

774.

4

24.7

3532

700

19.8

4006

537

13.4

5804

267

4.6

3681

869

23.6

4721

979

20.7

1106

19.1

East

ern

Euro

pe18

13

34

1.8

18

.8

21

52

47

9

22

.3

25

43

62

5

24

.6

36

65

63

7

17

.4

22

22

55

6

25

.0

30

63

81

6

26

.7

11

13

30

.4

Afri

ca68

8

12

.4

1.

8

11

93

14

1.

2

23

32

40

1.7

8476

82

1.

0

13

80

14

1.

0

32

33

78

2.4

342

4.0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1927

36.3

1.9

2462

91

3.

7

54

25

21

5

4.

0

19

207

37

7

2.

0

30

76

15

2

4.

9

63

52

42

9

6.

8

11

42

5.

9

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

827

1062

1689

0

0.0

4449

40

0.

9

11

02

19

43

32

1.6

161

3.6

Far

East

6417

292.

1

4.6

7516

830

11.0

9910

1160

11.7

2002

3

1525

7.6

8596

1176

13.7

1270

4

2115

16.6

3319

16.6

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e20

855

23

46.3

11.3

2486

7

3078

12.4

3445

8

3426

9.9

7443

3

3548

4.8

Hig

h Es

tim

ate

2721

0

3790

13.9

4228

7

5689

13.5

8971

12.1

Not

es:

(*)

The

nuc

lear

gen

erat

ion

data

pre

sent

ed in

thi

s ta

ble

and

the

nucl

ear

capa

city

dat

a pr

esen

ted

in T

able

3 c

anno

t be

use

d to

cal

cula

te a

vera

ge a

nnua

l cap

acit

y fa

ctor

s

for

nuc

lear

pla

nts,

as

Tabl

e 3

pres

ents

yea

r-en

d ca

paci

ty a

nd n

ot t

he e

ffec

tive

cap

acit

y av

erag

e ov

er t

he y

ear.

(a)

Pro

ject

ion

figu

res

for

tota

l ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

are

the

arit

hmet

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

21

TABL

E 4.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

AN

D C

ON

TRIB

UTI

ON

BY

NU

CLEA

R PO

WER

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

(a)

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

Nuc

lear

TWh

%TW

h%

TWh

%TW

h%

Nor

th A

mer

ica

4645

859.

8

18.5

4904

928

18.9

5144

794

15.4

5675

514

9.1

4934

979

19.8

5254

1125

21.4

1312

23.1

Lati

n Am

eric

a14

04

29

.5

2.

1

20

46

35

1.

7

34

10

56

1.6

7134

105

1.5

2219

45

2.0

5017

115

2.3

475

6.7

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

3135

774.

4

24.7

3532

700

19.8

4006

537

13.4

5804

267

4.6

3681

869

23.6

4721

979

20.7

1106

19.1

East

ern

Euro

pe18

13

34

1.8

18

.8

21

52

47

9

22

.3

25

43

62

5

24

.6

36

65

63

7

17

.4

22

22

55

6

25

.0

30

63

81

6

26

.7

11

13

30

.4

Afri

ca68

8

12

.4

1.

8

11

93

14

1.

2

23

32

40

1.7

8476

82

1.

0

13

80

14

1.

0

32

33

78

2.4

342

4.0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1927

36.3

1.9

2462

91

3.

7

54

25

21

5

4.

0

19

207

37

7

2.

0

30

76

15

2

4.

9

63

52

42

9

6.

8

11

42

5.

9

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

827

1062

1689

0

0.0

4449

40

0.

9

11

02

19

43

32

1.6

161

3.6

Far

East

6417

292.

1

4.6

7516

830

11.0

9910

1160

11.7

2002

3

1525

7.6

8596

1176

13.7

1270

4

2115

16.6

3319

16.6

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e20

855

23

46.3

11.3

2486

7

3078

12.4

3445

8

3426

9.9

7443

3

3548

4.8

Hig

h Es

tim

ate

2721

0

3790

13.9

4228

7

5689

13.5

8971

12.1

Not

es:

(*)

The

nuc

lear

gen

erat

ion

data

pre

sent

ed in

thi

s ta

ble

and

the

nucl

ear

capa

city

dat

a pr

esen

ted

in T

able

3 c

anno

t be

use

d to

cal

cula

te a

vera

ge a

nnua

l cap

acit

y fa

ctor

s

for

nuc

lear

pla

nts,

as

Tabl

e 3

pres

ents

yea

r-en

d ca

paci

ty a

nd n

ot t

he e

ffec

tive

cap

acit

y av

erag

e ov

er t

he y

ear.

(a)

Pro

ject

ion

figu

res

for

tota

l ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ion

are

the

arit

hmet

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

Tota

l Ele

ct.

TWh

22



FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER

20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35 Nuclear Low EstimateNuclear High Estimate

Perc

enta

ge (

%)




20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

5

10

15

20

25

30


Perc

enta

ge (

%)

23




20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

5

10

15

20

25

30


Perc

enta

ge (

%)

TABL

E 5.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T (E

J),

PERC

ENTA

GE

USE

D F

OR

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

, AN

D P

ERCE

NTA

GE

SU

PPLI

ED B

Y N

UCL

EAR

ENER

GY

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

(a)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

104.

7

41

.1

9.

0

10

4

44

9.7

104

46

8.

3

10

5

50

5.5

111

41

9.

6

11

0

45

11.2

13.3

Lati

n Am

eric

a36

.3

25

.5

0.

9

51

27

0.

8

63

36

1.

0

10

9

43

1.3

53

28

0.9

87

38

1.4

4.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

66.2

38.5

12.8

72

39

10.6

81

38

7.3

95

47

3.3

74

40

12.8

88

43

12.1

12.0

East

ern

Euro

pe58

.4

38

.6

6.

4

64

41

8.

2

66

47

10

.3

91

50

8.

3

67

41

9.

0

80

47

11

.2

12

.3

Afri

ca31

.8

21

.8

0.

4

36

33

0.

4

56

42

0.

8

20

3

42

0.7

40

35

0.4

97

34

0.9

1.4

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

75.6

33.2

0.5

94

34

1.1

160

44

1.

5

49

3

51

0.9

110

36

1.

5

18

3

45

2.6

2.3

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

26.7

32.0

30

36

41

43

0.0

100

46

0.

5

32

35

42

47

0.

8

1.

7

Far

East

152.

1

40

.8

2.

1

18

3

40

5.0

232

42

5.

5

40

0

49

4.7

199

42

6.

5

29

4

42

7.8

8.1

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e55

1.8

36.8

4.6

635

38

5.

3

80

3

42

4.7

1595

48

2.

7

H

igh

Esti

mat

e68

6

39

6.0

980

43

6.

3

5.

6

Not

es:

(*)

Tot

al e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t is

est

imat

ed a

s pr

oduc

tion

of

prim

ary

ener

gy p

lus

net

trad

e (i

mpo

rt –

exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

. (

a) P

roje

ctio

n fi

gure

s fo

r to

tal e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t an

d pe

rcen

tage

use

d fo

r el

ectr

icit

y ge

nera

tion

are

the

ari

thm

etic

ave

rage

bet

wee

n lo

w a

nd h

igh

esti

mat

es.

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

25

TABL

E 5.

EST

IMAT

ES O

F TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T (E

J),

PERC

ENTA

GE

USE

D F

OR

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

, AN

D P

ERCE

NTA

GE

SU

PPLI

ED B

Y N

UCL

EAR

ENER

GY

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

(a)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

104.

7

41

.1

9.

0

10

4

44

9.7

104

46

8.

3

10

5

50

5.5

111

41

9.

6

11

0

45

11.2

13.3

Lati

n Am

eric

a36

.3

25

.5

0.

9

51

27

0.

8

63

36

1.

0

10

9

43

1.3

53

28

0.9

87

38

1.4

4.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

66.2

38.5

12.8

72

39

10.6

81

38

7.3

95

47

3.3

74

40

12.8

88

43

12.1

12.0

East

ern

Euro

pe58

.4

38

.6

6.

4

64

41

8.

2

66

47

10

.3

91

50

8.

3

67

41

9.

0

80

47

11

.2

12

.3

Afri

ca31

.8

21

.8

0.

4

36

33

0.

4

56

42

0.

8

20

3

42

0.7

40

35

0.4

97

34

0.9

1.4

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

75.6

33.2

0.5

94

34

1.1

160

44

1.

5

49

3

51

0.9

110

36

1.

5

18

3

45

2.6

2.3

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

26.7

32.0

30

36

41

43

0.0

100

46

0.

5

32

35

42

47

0.

8

1.

7

Far

East

152.

1

40

.8

2.

1

18

3

40

5.0

232

42

5.

5

40

0

49

4.7

199

42

6.

5

29

4

42

7.8

8.1

Wor

ld T

otal

Low

Est

imat

e55

1.8

36.8

4.6

635

38

5.

3

80

3

42

4.7

1595

48

2.

7

H

igh

Esti

mat

e68

6

39

6.0

980

43

6.

3

5.

6

Not

es:

(*)

Tot

al e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t is

est

imat

ed a

s pr

oduc

tion

of

prim

ary

ener

gy p

lus

net

trad

e (i

mpo

rt –

exp

ort)

min

us in

tern

atio

nal b

unke

rs a

nd s

tock

cha

nges

. (

a) P

roje

ctio

n fi

gure

s fo

r to

tal e

nerg

y re

quir

emen

t an

d pe

rcen

tage

use

d fo

r el

ectr

icit

y ge

nera

tion

are

the

ari

thm

etic

ave

rage

bet

wee

n lo

w a

nd h

igh

esti

mat

es.

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Requ

irem

ent

% U

sed

for

Elec

t. G

en.

% Su

pplie

dby

Nuc

lear

26



FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT

20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 Total - High EstimateTotal – Low EstimateNuclear – High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate

EJ




20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


EJ

27




20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


EJ

29

TABL

E 6.

TO

TAL

ENER

GY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T (E

J) B

Y TY

PE O

F FU

EL IN

201

2 (*

) Co

untr

y G

roup

Solid

s (a

)Li

quid

sG

ases

Biof

uels

(b)

Hyd

roN

ucle

arRe

new

able

s (c

)To

tal

Nor

th A

mer

ica

19.0

3

34.9

9

31.8

6

5.86

2.

47

9.38

1.

12

104.

71

Lati

n Am

eric

a1.

68

16.3

8

9.11

5.

66

2.74

0.

32

0.45

36

.34

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

9.67

21

.65

18

.17

4.

74

2.10

8.

45

1.44

66

.21

East

ern

Euro

pe11

.94

12

.32

27

.94

1.

41

1.00

3.

73

0.04

58

.38

Afri

ca4.

89

8.54

4.

68

13.0

5

0.42

0.

14

0.12

31

.83

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

19.1

6

24.6

9

20.2

5

10.3

3

0.66

0.

40

0.11

75

.61

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

6.15

9.

25

6.27

4.

27

0.26

0.

46

26.6

6

Far

East

89.6

0

36.3

9

14.0

4

4.29

3.

74

3.19

0.

84

152.

09

Wor

ld T

otal

162.

12

164.

22

132.

32

49.6

0

13.4

0

25.6

0

4.57

55

1.83

Not

es:

(*)

Tota

l ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent

is e

stim

ated

as

prod

ucti

on o

f pr

imar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tr

ade

(im

port

– e

xpor

t) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a)

Solid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Bio

fuel

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

cha

rcoa

l, c

ombu

stib

le r

enew

able

s, w

aste

and

oth

er e

nerg

y pr

oduc

ts d

eriv

ed d

irec

tly

or in

dire

ctly

fro

m b

iom

ass.

(c)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al,

win

d, s

olar

, ti

de e

nerg

y an

d ne

t el

ectr

icit

y tr

ade.

30

North Latin Western Eastern Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastAmerica America Europe Europe South Asia & the Pacific

FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels

Gases

Liquids

Solids

EJ



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels

Gases

Liquids

Solids

EJ

31



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels

Gases

Liquids

Solids

EJ

32

FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 — 2012

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels

Gases

Liquids

Solids

Year

EJ


1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels

Gases

Liquids

Solids

Year

EJ

33


1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Renewables

Nuclear

Hydro

Biofuels

Gases

Liquids

Solids

Year

EJ

TABL

E 7.

FU

EL S

HA

RES

(%)

OF

TOTA

L EN

ERG

Y RE

QU

IREM

ENT

IN 2

012

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

upSo

lids

(a)

Liqu

ids

Gas

esBi

ofue

ls (

b)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Rene

wab

les

(c)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

18.2

33

.4

30.4

5.

6

2.4

9.

0

1.1

10

0.0

Lati

n Am

eric

a4.

6

45.1

25

.1

15.6

7.

5

0.9

1.

2

100.

0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

14.6

32

.7

27.4

7.

2

3.2

12

.8

2.2

10

0.0

East

ern

Euro

pe20

.4

21.1

47

.8

2.4

1.

7

6.4

0.

1

100.

0

Afri

ca15

.4

26.8

14

.7

41.0

1.

3

0.4

0.

4

100.

0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

25.3

32

.7

26.8

13

.7

0.9

0.

5

0.1

10

0.0

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

23.1

34

.7

23.5

16

.0

1.0

1.

7

100.

0

Far

East

58.9

23

.9

9.2

2.

8

2.5

2.

1

0.6

10

0.0

Wor

ld T

otal

29.4

29

.8

24.0

9.

0

2.4

4.

6

0.8

10

0.0

Not

es:

(*)

Tota

l ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent

is e

stim

ated

as

prod

ucti

on o

f pr

imar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tr

ade

(im

port

– e

xpor

t) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a)

Solid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Bio

fuel

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

cha

rcoa

l, c

ombu

stib

le r

enew

able

s, w

aste

and

oth

er e

nerg

y pr

oduc

ts d

eriv

ed d

irec

tly

or in

dire

ctly

fro

m b

iom

ass.

(c)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al,

win

d, s

olar

, ti

de e

nerg

y an

d ne

t el

ectr

icit

y tr

ade.

35

TABL

E 7.

FU

EL S

HA

RES

(%)

OF

TOTA

L EN

ERG

Y RE

QU

IREM

ENT

IN 2

012

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

upSo

lids

(a)

Liqu

ids

Gas

esBi

ofue

ls (

b)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Rene

wab

les

(c)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

18.2

33

.4

30.4

5.

6

2.4

9.

0

1.1

10

0.0

Lati

n Am

eric

a4.

6

45.1

25

.1

15.6

7.

5

0.9

1.

2

100.

0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

14.6

32

.7

27.4

7.

2

3.2

12

.8

2.2

10

0.0

East

ern

Euro

pe20

.4

21.1

47

.8

2.4

1.

7

6.4

0.

1

100.

0

Afri

ca15

.4

26.8

14

.7

41.0

1.

3

0.4

0.

4

100.

0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

25.3

32

.7

26.8

13

.7

0.9

0.

5

0.1

10

0.0

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

23.1

34

.7

23.5

16

.0

1.0

1.

7

100.

0

Far

East

58.9

23

.9

9.2

2.

8

2.5

2.

1

0.6

10

0.0

Wor

ld T

otal

29.4

29

.8

24.0

9.

0

2.4

4.

6

0.8

10

0.0

Not

es:

(*)

Tota

l ene

rgy

requ

irem

ent

is e

stim

ated

as

prod

ucti

on o

f pr

imar

y en

ergy

plu

s ne

t tr

ade

(im

port

– e

xpor

t) m

inus

inte

rnat

iona

l bun

kers

and

sto

ck c

hang

es.

(a)

Solid

s do

not

incl

ude

com

mer

cial

woo

d.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Bio

fuel

s' in

clud

es c

omm

erci

al w

ood,

cha

rcoa

l, c

ombu

stib

le r

enew

able

s, w

aste

and

oth

er e

nerg

y pr

oduc

ts d

eriv

ed d

irec

tly

or in

dire

ctly

fro

m b

iom

ass.

(c)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'R

enew

able

s' in

clud

es g

eoth

erm

al,

win

d, s

olar

, ti

de e

nerg

y an

d ne

t el

ectr

icit

y tr

ade.

36

TABL

E 8.

FU

EL U

SE (

EJ)

FOR

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

BY

TYPE

OF

FUEL

IN 2

012

Coun

try

Gro

upTh

erm

al (

a)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Rene

wab

les

(b)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

30.1

1

2.47

9.

38

1.03

42

.99

Lati

n Am

eric

a5.

81

2.74

0.

32

0.40

9.

28

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

13.6

4

2.10

8.

45

1.29

25

.48

East

ern

Euro

pe17

.75

1.

00

3.73

0.

04

22.5

2

Afri

ca6.

29

0.42

0.

14

0.10

6.

95

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

23.9

6

0.66

0.

40

0.10

25

.12

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

7.84

0.

26

0.43

8.

54

Far

East

54.4

0

3.74

3.

19

0.78

62

.11

Wor

ld T

otal

159.

80

13.4

0

25.6

0

4.18

20

2.98

Not

es:

(a)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'T

herm

al' i

s th

e to

tal f

or s

olid

s, li

quid

s, g

ases

, bi

ofue

ls a

nd w

aste

.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, w

ind,

sol

ar a

nd t

ide

ener

gy.

37

TABL

E 9.

PER

CEN

TAG

E CO

NTR

IBU

TIO

N O

F EA

CH F

UEL

TYP

E TO

ELE

CTRI

CITY

GEN

ERAT

ION

IN 2

012

Coun

try

Gro

upTh

erm

al (

a)H

ydro

Nuc

lear

Rene

wab

les

(b)

Tota

l

Nor

th A

mer

ica

64.0

14

.8

18.5

2.

7

100.

0

Lati

n Am

eric

a42

.7

54.3

2.

1

0.9

10

0.0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

49.5

18

.6

24.7

7.

2

100.

0

East

ern

Euro

pe65

.5

15.4

18

.8

0.3

10

0.0

Afri

ca80

.4

16.9

1.

8

0.9

10

0.0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

87.4

9.

6

1.9

1.

2

100.

0

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

88.8

8.

8

2.3

10

0.0

Far

East

78.0

16

.2

4.6

1.

2

100.

0

Wor

ld T

otal

68.5

17

.8

11.3

2.

4

100.

0

Not

es:

(a)

The

colu

mn

head

ed 'T

herm

al' i

s th

e to

tal f

or s

olid

s, li

quid

s, g

ases

, bi

ofue

ls a

nd w

aste

.(b

) Th

e co

lum

n he

aded

'Ren

ewab

les'

incl

udes

geo

ther

mal

, w

ind,

sol

ar a

nd t

ide

ener

gy.

TABL

E 10

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

POPU

LATI

ON

GRO

WTH

BY

REG

ION

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Nor

th A

mer

ica

358

1.

13

37

4

0.56

402

0.

71

44

7

0.53

Lati

n Am

eric

a60

1

1.24

652

1.

03

70

2

0.73

751

0.

34

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

489

0.

54

50

4

0.37

515

0.

21

52

0

0.05

East

ern

Euro

pe39

1

-0.3

8

389

-0

.07

38

1

-0.2

1

356

-0

.34

Afri

ca10

81

2.

69

12

78

2.

12

15

62

2.

03

21

92

1.

71

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1910

1.96

2119

1.31

2357

1.07

2679

0.64

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

431

1.

07

48

8

1.56

526

0.

75

56

4

0.35

Far

East

1791

0.63

1852

0.42

1878

0.14

1798

-0.2

2

Wor

ld T

otal

7052

1.42

7657

1.03

8321

0.84

9306

0.56

(*)

Proj

ecti

on f

igur

es a

re t

he a

rith

met

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2000

— 2

012

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2012

— 2

020

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2020

— 2

030

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2030

— 2

050

39

TABL

E 10

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

POPU

LATI

ON

GRO

WTH

BY

REG

ION

(*)

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Mill

ion

Inha

bita

nts

Nor

th A

mer

ica

358

1.

13

37

4

0.56

402

0.

71

44

7

0.53

Lati

n Am

eric

a60

1

1.24

652

1.

03

70

2

0.73

751

0.

34

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

489

0.

54

50

4

0.37

515

0.

21

52

0

0.05

East

ern

Euro

pe39

1

-0.3

8

389

-0

.07

38

1

-0.2

1

356

-0

.34

Afri

ca10

81

2.

69

12

78

2.

12

15

62

2.

03

21

92

1.

71

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1910

1.96

2119

1.31

2357

1.07

2679

0.64

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

431

1.

07

48

8

1.56

526

0.

75

56

4

0.35

Far

East

1791

0.63

1852

0.42

1878

0.14

1798

-0.2

2

Wor

ld T

otal

7052

1.42

7657

1.03

8321

0.84

9306

0.56

(*)

Proj

ecti

on f

igur

es a

re t

he a

rith

met

ic a

vera

ge b

etw

een

low

and

hig

h es

tim

ates

.

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2000

— 2

012

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2012

— 2

020

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2020

— 2

030

Gro

wth

Rat

e (%

/a)

2030

— 2

050

40



FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES

20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mill

ions

of

Inha

bita

nts




20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mill

ions

of

Inha

bita

nts

41




20

1220

2020

3020

50

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Mill

ions

of

Inha

bita

nts

43

TABL

E 11

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

TOTA

L EN

ERG

Y A

ND

ELE

CTRI

CITY

REQ

UIR

EMEN

T PE

R CA

PITA

Coun

try

Gro

up

2012

2020

2030

2050

(*)

Nor

th A

mer

ica

292

13.0

279

—29

6

13.1

—

13.2

25

8—

273

12

.8

—13

.1

234

±7

12.7

±

0.3

Lati

n Am

eric

a61

2.3

77—

81

3.1

—3.

4 90

—12

4

4.9

—7.

2 14

5 ±

25

9.5

±2.

0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

135

6.4

143

—14

7

7.0

—7.

3 15

7—

171

7.

8 —

9.2

183

±11

11

.2

±1.

1

East

ern

Euro

pe14

9

4.

6

16

5—

173

5.

5 —

5.7

174

—20

9

6.7

—8.

0 25

6 ±

22

10.3

±

1.1

Afri

ca29

0.6

28—

31

0.9

—1.

1 36

—62

1.

5 —

2.1

92

±32

3.

9 ±

1.4

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

40

1.

0

45

—52

1.

2 —

1.5

68—

78

2.3

—2.

7 18

4 ±

21

7.2

±0.

8

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

62

1.

9

62

—66

2.

2 —

2.3

78—

80

3.2

—3.

7 17

7 ±

11

7.9

±0.

8

Far

East

85

3.

6

99

—10

7

4.1

—4.

6 12

3—

157

5.

3 —

6.8

222

±27

11

.1

±1.

6

Wor

ld A

vera

ge78

3.0

83—

90

3.2

—3.

6 96

—11

8

4.1

—5.

1 17

1 ±

23

8.0

±1.

2

Not

e: (

*) P

roje

ctio

n fi

gure

s ar

e th

e ar

ithm

etic

ave

rage

bet

wee

n lo

w a

nd h

igh

esti

mat

es w

ith

indi

cate

d ra

nge.

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

Ener

gy

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

GJ/

cap)

Elec

tric

ity

Requ

irem

ent

per

Capi

ta (

MW

h/ca

p)

44


FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 High EstimateLow Estimate

GJ

per

capi

ta



2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250


GJ

per

capi

ta

45



2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

50

100

150

200

250


GJ

per

capi

ta

46


FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14High Estimate Low Estimate

MW

h p

er c

apit

a



2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


MW

h p

er c

apit

a

47



2012

2020

2030

2050

2012

2020

2030

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


MW

h p

er c

apit

a

49

TABL

E 12

. AVE

RAG

E A

NN

UA

L G

ROW

TH R

ATES

DU

RIN

G T

HE

PERI

OD

200

2—20

12 (

%)

Coun

try

Gro

upPo

pula

tion

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Nuc

lear

Cap

acit

y

Nor

th A

mer

ica

1.2

-0.3

0.

4

0.

1

0.

7

Lati

n Am

eric

a1.

2

2.

8

3.

5

0.

3

0.

4

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.5

-0.3

0.

8

-1

.3

-1.0

East

ern

Euro

pe-0

.4

0.9

1.0

1.4

0.4

Afri

ca2.

8

3.

6

4.

1

0.

3

0.

0

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

2.0

5.2

5.3

6.4

7.5

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

1.0

2.8

3.5

Far

East

0.6

6.0

7.2

-4.9

1.

8

Wor

ld A

vera

ge1.

3

2.

5

3.

1

-0

.9

0.4

50


FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 2002 — 2012

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Population

Total Energy

Total Electricity

Nuclear Energy

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)



-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Population

Total Energy

Total Electricity

Nuclear Energy

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

51



-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8 Population

Total Energy

Total Electricity

Nuclear Energy

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

TABL

E 13

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

AVER

AG

E A

NN

UA

L G

ROW

TH R

ATES

DU

RIN

G T

HE

PERI

OD

201

2—20

30 (

%)

Coun

try

Gro

upPo

pula

tion

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Nuc

lear

Cap

acit

y

Nor

th A

mer

ica

0.6

0.

0 —

0.3

0.

6 —

0.7

-0

.4

—1.

5

-0.8

—

1.2

Lati

n Am

eric

a0.

9

3.1

—5.

0

5.1

—7.

3

3.6

—7.

9

2.7

—7.

0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.3

1.

1 —

1.6

1.

4 —

2.3

-2

.0

—1.

3

-2.8

—

0.5

East

ern

Euro

pe-0

.1

0.

7 —

1.7

1.

9 —

3.0

3.

4 —

5.0

2.

8 —

4.3

Afri

ca2.

1

3.2

—6.

4

7.0

—9.

0

6.7

—10

.7

5.7

—9.

7

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1.2

4.

3 —

5.0

5.

9 —

6.9

10

.4

—14

.7

8.7

—13

.0

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

1.1

2.

4 —

2.6

4.

0 —

4.9

Far

East

0.3

2.

4 —

3.7

2.

4 —

3.9

8.

0 —

11.6

3.

2 —

6.7

Wor

ld A

vera

ge0.

9

2.1

—3.

2

2.8

—4.

0

2.1

—5.

0

0.9

—3.

7

53

TABL

E 13

. ES

TIM

ATES

OF

AVER

AG

E A

NN

UA

L G

ROW

TH R

ATES

DU

RIN

G T

HE

PERI

OD

201

2—20

30 (

%)

Coun

try

Gro

upPo

pula

tion

Tota

l Ene

rgy

Tota

l Ele

ctri

city

Nuc

lear

Ene

rgy

Nuc

lear

Cap

acit

y

Nor

th A

mer

ica

0.6

0.

0 —

0.3

0.

6 —

0.7

-0

.4

—1.

5

-0.8

—

1.2

Lati

n Am

eric

a0.

9

3.1

—5.

0

5.1

—7.

3

3.6

—7.

9

2.7

—7.

0

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

0.3

1.

1 —

1.6

1.

4 —

2.3

-2

.0

—1.

3

-2.8

—

0.5

East

ern

Euro

pe-0

.1

0.

7 —

1.7

1.

9 —

3.0

3.

4 —

5.0

2.

8 —

4.3

Afri

ca2.

1

3.2

—6.

4

7.0

—9.

0

6.7

—10

.7

5.7

—9.

7

Mid

dle

East

and

Sou

th A

sia

1.2

4.

3 —

5.0

5.

9 —

6.9

10

.4

—14

.7

8.7

—13

.0

Sout

h Ea

st A

sia

and

the

Paci

fic

1.1

2.

4 —

2.6

4.

0 —

4.9

Far

East

0.3

2.

4 —

3.7

2.

4 —

3.9

8.

0 —

11.6

3.

2 —

6.7

Wor

ld A

vera

ge0.

9

2.1

—3.

2

2.8

—4.

0

2.1

—5.

0

0.9

—3.

7

@ No. 22

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AUSTRALIADA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132 Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 • Fax: +61 3 9210 7788 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au

BELGIUMJean de Lannoy, avenue du Roi 202, B-1190 Brussels Telephone: +32 2 538 43 08 • Fax: +32 2 538 08 41 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.jean-de-lannoy.be

CANADABernan Associates, 4501 Forbes Blvd, Suite 200, Lanham, MD 20706-4346, USA Telephone: 1-800-865-3457 • Fax: 1-800-865-3450 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.bernan.com

Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 1-5369 Canotek Rd., Ottawa, Ontario, K1J 9J3 Telephone: +613 745 2665 • Fax: +613 745 7660 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.renoufbooks.com

CHINAIAEA Publications in Chinese: China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, Translation Section, P.O. Box 2103, Beijing

CZECH REPUBLICSuweco CZ, S.R.O., Klecakova 347, 180 21 Praha 9 Telephone: +420 26603 5364 • Fax: +420 28482 1646 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.suweco.cz

FINLANDAkateeminen Kirjakauppa, PO BOX 128 (Keskuskatu 1), FIN-00101 Helsinki Telephone: +358 9 121 41 • Fax: +358 9 121 4450 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.akateeminen.com

FRANCEForm-Edit, 5, rue Janssen, P.O. Box 25, F-75921 Paris Cedex 19 Telephone: +33 1 42 01 49 49 • Fax: +33 1 42 01 90 90 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www. formedit.fr

Lavoisier SAS, 145 rue de Provigny, 94236 Cachan Cedex Telephone: + 33 1 47 40 67 02 • Fax +33 1 47 40 67 02 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.lavoisier.fr

GERMANYUNO-Verlag, Vertriebs- und Verlags GmbH, Am Hofgarten 10, D-53113 Bonn Telephone: + 49 228 94 90 20 • Fax: +49 228 94 90 20 or +49 228 94 90 222 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.uno-verlag.de

HUNGARYLibrotrade Ltd., Book Import, P.O. Box 126, H-1656 Budapest Telephone: +36 1 257 7777 • Fax: +36 1 257 7472 • Email: [email protected]

INDIAAllied Publishers Group, 1st Floor, Dubash House, 15, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Mumbai 400 001, Telephone: +91 22 22617926/27 • Fax: +91 22 22617928 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.alliedpublishers.com

Bookwell, 2/72, Nirankari Colony, Delhi 110009 Telephone: +91 11 23268786, +91 11 23257264 • Fax: +91 11 23281315 Email: [email protected]

ITALYLibreria Scientifica Dott. Lucio di Biasio “AEIOU”, Via Coronelli 6, I-20146 Milan Telephone: +39 02 48 95 45 52 or 48 95 45 62 • Fax: +39 02 48 95 45 48 Email: [email protected] • Website: www.libreriaaeiou.eu

@ No. 22

Where to order IAEA publicationsIn the following countries IAEA publications may be purchased from the sources listed below, or from major local booksellers. Payment may be made in local currency or with UNESCO coupons.

AUSTRALIADA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132 Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 • Fax: +61 3 9210 7788 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au

BELGIUMJean de Lannoy, avenue du Roi 202, B-1190 Brussels Telephone: +32 2 538 43 08 • Fax: +32 2 538 08 41 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.jean-de-lannoy.be

CANADABernan Associates, 4501 Forbes Blvd, Suite 200, Lanham, MD 20706-4346, USA Telephone: 1-800-865-3457 • Fax: 1-800-865-3450 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.bernan.com

Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 1-5369 Canotek Rd., Ottawa, Ontario, K1J 9J3 Telephone: +613 745 2665 • Fax: +613 745 7660 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.renoufbooks.com

CHINAIAEA Publications in Chinese: China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation, Translation Section, P.O. Box 2103, Beijing

CZECH REPUBLICSuweco CZ, S.R.O., Klecakova 347, 180 21 Praha 9 Telephone: +420 26603 5364 • Fax: +420 28482 1646 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.suweco.cz

FINLANDAkateeminen Kirjakauppa, PO BOX 128 (Keskuskatu 1), FIN-00101 Helsinki Telephone: +358 9 121 41 • Fax: +358 9 121 4450 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.akateeminen.com

FRANCEForm-Edit, 5, rue Janssen, P.O. Box 25, F-75921 Paris Cedex 19 Telephone: +33 1 42 01 49 49 • Fax: +33 1 42 01 90 90 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www. formedit.fr

Lavoisier SAS, 145 rue de Provigny, 94236 Cachan Cedex Telephone: + 33 1 47 40 67 02 • Fax +33 1 47 40 67 02 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.lavoisier.fr

GERMANYUNO-Verlag, Vertriebs- und Verlags GmbH, Am Hofgarten 10, D-53113 Bonn Telephone: + 49 228 94 90 20 • Fax: +49 228 94 90 20 or +49 228 94 90 222 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.uno-verlag.de

HUNGARYLibrotrade Ltd., Book Import, P.O. Box 126, H-1656 Budapest Telephone: +36 1 257 7777 • Fax: +36 1 257 7472 • Email: [email protected]

INDIAAllied Publishers Group, 1st Floor, Dubash House, 15, J. N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Mumbai 400 001, Telephone: +91 22 22617926/27 • Fax: +91 22 22617928 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.alliedpublishers.com

Bookwell, 2/72, Nirankari Colony, Delhi 110009 Telephone: +91 11 23268786, +91 11 23257264 • Fax: +91 11 23281315 Email: [email protected]

ITALYLibreria Scientifica Dott. Lucio di Biasio “AEIOU”, Via Coronelli 6, I-20146 Milan Telephone: +39 02 48 95 45 52 or 48 95 45 62 • Fax: +39 02 48 95 45 48 Email: [email protected] • Website: www.libreriaaeiou.eu

JAPANMaruzen Company Ltd, 1-9-18, Kaigan, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-0022 Telephone: +81 3 6367 6079 • Fax: +81 3 6367 6207 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.maruzen.co.jp

REPUBLIC OF KOREAKINS Inc., Information Business Dept. Samho Bldg. 2nd Floor, 275-1 Yang Jae-dong SeoCho-G, Seoul 137-130 Telephone: +02 589 1740 • Fax: +02 589 1746 • Web site: http://www.kins.re.kr

NETHERLANDSDe Lindeboom Internationale Publicaties B.V., M.A. de Ruyterstraat 20A, NL-7482 BZ Haaksbergen Telephone: +31 (0) 53 5740004 • Fax: +31 (0) 53 5729296 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.delindeboom.com

Martinus Nijhoff International, Koraalrood 50, P.O. Box 1853, 2700 CZ Zoetermeer Telephone: +31 793 684 400 • Fax: +31 793 615 698 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.nijhoff.nl

Swets and Zeitlinger b.v., P.O. Box 830, 2160 SZ Lisse Telephone: +31 252 435 111 • Fax: +31 252 415 888 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.swets.nl

NEW ZEALANDDA Information Services, 648 Whitehorse Road, MITCHAM 3132, Australia Telephone: +61 3 9210 7777 • Fax: +61 3 9210 7788 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.dadirect.com.au

SLOVENIACankarjeva Zalozba d.d., Kopitarjeva 2, SI-1512 Ljubljana Telephone: +386 1 432 31 44 • Fax: +386 1 230 14 35 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.cankarjeva-z.si/uvoz

SPAINDíaz de Santos, S.A., c/ Juan Bravo, 3A, E-28006 Madrid Telephone: +34 91 781 94 80 • Fax: +34 91 575 55 63 Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Web site: http://www.diazdesantos.es

UNITED KINGDOMThe Stationery Office Ltd, International Sales Agency, PO Box 29, Norwich, NR3 1 GN Telephone (orders): +44 870 600 5552 • (enquiries): +44 207 873 8372 • Fax: +44 207 873 8203 Email (orders): [email protected] • (enquiries): [email protected] • Web site: http://www.tso.co.uk

On-line orders DELTA Int. Book Wholesalers Ltd., 39 Alexandra Road, Addlestone, Surrey, KT15 2PQ Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.profbooks.com

Books on the Environment Earthprint Ltd., P.O. Box 119, Stevenage SG1 4TP Telephone: +44 1438748111 • Fax: +44 1438748844 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.earthprint.com

UNITED NATIONSDept. I004, Room DC2-0853, First Avenue at 46th Street, New York, N.Y. 10017, USA (UN) Telephone: +800 253-9646 or +212 963-8302 • Fax: +212 963-3489 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.un.org

UNITED STATES OF AMERICABernan Associates, 4501 Forbes Blvd., Suite 200, Lanham, MD 20706-4346 Telephone: 1-800-865-3457 • Fax: 1-800-865-3450 Email: [email protected] · Web site: http://www.bernan.com

Renouf Publishing Company Ltd., 812 Proctor Ave., Ogdensburg, NY, 13669 Telephone: +888 551 7470 (toll-free) • Fax: +888 568 8546 (toll-free) Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.renoufbooks.com

Orders and requests for information may also be addressed directly to: Marketing and Sales Unit, International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna International Centre, PO Box 100, 1400 Vienna, Austria Telephone: +43 1 2600 22529 (or 22530) • Fax: +43 1 2600 29302 Email: [email protected] • Web site: http://www.iaea.org/books

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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA

ISBN 978-92-0-111910-0ISSN 1011-2642 @

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 12013 Edition

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2050

Documents

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the ... · ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND NuCLEAR pOwER ESTIMATES FOR ThE pERIOD up TO 2050 IAEA-RDS-1/33 ISBN 978–92–0–111910–0