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Engineering Thermoplastics & Intermediates
Keiji Wakatsuki
Chemicals Committee Meeting at APIC 2014
Pattaya, 16 May 2014
APIC 2014ENGINEERING THERMOPLASTIC MARKETS & END-USES
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
PA 6, PA 66
Polyacetal
ABS/SAN
PBT
Polycarbonate Automotive, optical media, consumer goods
Automotive, consumer goods, electrical
Automotive, electronics, consumer goods
Automotive, electronics, fibre-optic cable
Computers, electronics, home appliances
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1,000 Metric Tons
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 & 66 ENGINEERING RESIN CAPACITY & DEMAND
PA6Capacity
PA66Capacity
PA6Demand
PA66 Demand
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Dollars per Ton
US DomesticContract
EU DomesticContract
ChinaImport (cfr)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
POLYAMIDE 6 ENGINEERING RESIN PRICES
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Dollars per Ton
West EuropeDDP
AsiaCFR
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
PA 6 RESIN MARGINS over 1.02 x CAPROLACTAM
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 2020
Market Over-Supply
1,000 Metric Tons
N America
S America
W Europe
E Europe
S&SE Asia
NE Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY GROWTH
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD POLYCARBONATE RESINCAPACITY & DEMAND1,000 Metric Tons
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ROWCapacity
ChinaCapacity
Demand
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Dollars per Ton
US DomesticContract
EU DomesticContract
China Domestic
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
POLYCARBONATE RESIN PRICES
APIC 2014
POLYCARBONATE RAW MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS
• US Gulf Coast
� Benzene – Record high spot prices; contract above $5/gal
� Propylene – Tighter market supplies keeping prices elevated
• Northwest Europe
� Benzene – Average Q1 2014 contract more than €1000/ton
� Propylene – Contract prices hold firm at €1100/ton in Q1
• China/Asia
� Benzene – Spot, contract prices in $1200-1300/ton range
� Propylene – Prices close to $1300-1400/ton in Q1 2014
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Margin = [Bisphenol A - (0.88 x Phenol + 0.29 x Acetone)]
Dollars per Ton
United States
West Europe
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
BISPHENOL A MARGINS over PRECURSORS
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD POLYACETAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY
15%
16%
9%
1%
16%7%
9%
5%
19%
3%
0%
Total = 1.08 Million Metric Tons
2010
9%
11%
5%
1%
10%
4%
11%
6%
33%
7%
3%
Total = 1.7 Million Metric Tons
2015United States
Germany
Netherlands
Poland
Japan
Taiwan
South Korea
Thailand
China
Malaysia
Saudi Arabia
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000Ja
n-09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Dollars per Ton
US DomesticContract
EU DomesticContract
China Domestic
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
POLYACETAL COPOLYMER RESIN PRICES
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10A
pr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11A
pr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12A
pr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13A
pr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14A
pr-1
4
Dollars per Ton
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
METHANOL CONTRACT PRICESvs BRENT and HENRY HUB
Asia
N. America
W. Europe
Brent
Henry Hub
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 20200
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1,000 Metric Tons
W&E Europe
N America
ME/Africa
S&SE Asia
NE Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD PBT RESIN CAPACITY GROWTH
2014 Capacity: 1.8 Million Tons
APIC 2014
POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE
• Global PBT market ‘regionalised’ in terms of virgin resin as compounded material makes up large percentage of import/export volumes.
• PBT resin in US market mostly sold as compounded material. Monthly pricing prevalent for compounded volumes.
• European market contract prices relatively flat in 2013-2014. Spot material from Asia makes little impact.
• China domestic and import business typically concluded on spot volumes due to over-supply.
• China import prices trended lower during 2013
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
Electrical33%
IT12%
Other16%
Automotive39%
2013 960,000 Metric Tons
APIC 2014
WORLD PBT DEMAND BY END-USE
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
22%
19%
3%
1%24%
31%
<1%
Total = 1.7 Million Metric Tons
SAN 2014
1%
1%
35%
36%
9%
9%8% 1%
Total = 10.1 Million Metric Tons
ABS 2014N America
S America
W Europe
E Europe
ME & A
S & SE Asia
NE Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
WORLD ABS/SAN PRODUCTION CAPACITY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan-0
9Apr
-09
Jul-0
9O
ct-09
Jan-1
0Apr
-10
Jul-1
0O
ct-10
Jan-1
1Apr
-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-11
Jan-1
2Apr
-12
Jul-1
2O
ct-12
Jan-1
3Apr
-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-13
Jan-1
4
Dollars per Ton
Acrylonitrile
Butadiene
Styrene
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
ASIAN ABS RAW MATERIAL PRICES
APIC 2014
‘GREEN’ ENGINEERING THERMOPLASTICS
Slowly But Surely
• Polyamide 11 – Produced from castor oil by Arkema.
• Polyamide 12 – Evonik operating pilot plant producing bio-lauric acid from palm kernel oil.
• Bio-PBT – Lanxess, Toray using Genomatica's bio-based 1,4 butanediol as feedstock.
• ‘DURABIO’ – Isosorbide-based plastic manufactured by Mitsubishi Chemical Corp. Touted as alternative to polycarbonate.
• Widespread use in Engineering Thermoplastics still some years away.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2014
SUMMARY/CONCLUSIONS
• Engineering Thermoplastic polymer growth outlook positive as substitution for metal in automobiles, for example, needed to meet fuel efficiency targets.
• Costs for hydrocarbon based raw materials still sensitive to energy market volatility.
• Over-capacity in some key raw material markets limiting margin growth for the short-term in ETP markets.
• Concerns about growth rates in China weighing down market sentiment.
• Development of ‘green’ ETP products continuing.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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