Engineering Thermoplastics & Intermediates 2014/APIC2014_Keiji_Wak¢  POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE ¢â‚¬¢

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Text of Engineering Thermoplastics & Intermediates 2014/APIC2014_Keiji_Wak¢  POLYBUTYLENE...

  • Engineering Thermoplastics & Intermediates

    Keiji Wakatsuki

    Chemicals Committee Meeting at APIC 2014

    Pattaya, 16 May 2014

  • APIC 2014 ENGINEERING THERMOPLASTIC MARKETS & END-USES

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    PA 6, PA 66

    Polyacetal

    ABS/SAN

    PBT

    Polycarbonate Automotive, optical media, consumer goods

    Automotive, consumer goods, electrical

    Automotive, electronics, consumer goods

    Automotive, electronics, fibre-optic cable

    Computers, electronics, home appliances

  • 0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    1,000 Metric Tons

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 & 66 ENGINEERING RESIN CAPACITY & DEMAND

    PA6 Capacity

    PA66 Capacity

    PA6 Demand

    PA66 Demand

  • 1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    4,500 Ja

    n- 09

    A pr

    -0 9

    Ju l-0

    9 O

    ct -0

    9 Ja

    n- 10

    A pr

    -1 0

    Ju l-1

    0 O

    ct -1

    0 Ja

    n- 11

    A pr

    -1 1

    Ju l-1

    1 O

    ct -1

    1 Ja

    n- 12

    A pr

    -1 2

    Ju l-1

    2 O

    ct -1

    2 Ja

    n- 13

    A pr

    -1 3

    Ju l-1

    3 O

    ct -1

    3 Ja

    n- 14

    Dollars per Ton

    US Domestic Contract

    EU Domestic Contract

    China Import (cfr)

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    POLYAMIDE 6 ENGINEERING RESIN PRICES

  • -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Dollars per Ton

    West Europe DDP

    Asia CFR

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    PA 6 RESIN MARGINS over 1.02 x CAPROLACTAM

  • 0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 2020

    Market Over-Supply

    1,000 Metric Tons

    N America

    S America

    W Europe

    E Europe

    S&SE Asia

    NE Asia

    China

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY GROWTH

  • Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    WORLD POLYCARBONATE RESIN CAPACITY & DEMAND 1,000 Metric Tons

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    ROW Capacity

    China Capacity

    Demand

  • 2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    4,500 Ja

    n- 09

    A pr

    -0 9

    Ju l-0

    9 O

    ct -0

    9 Ja

    n- 10

    A pr

    -1 0

    Ju l-1

    0 O

    ct -1

    0 Ja

    n- 11

    A pr

    -1 1

    Ju l-1

    1 O

    ct -1

    1 Ja

    n- 12

    A pr

    -1 2

    Ju l-1

    2 O

    ct -1

    2 Ja

    n- 13

    A pr

    -1 3

    Ju l-1

    3 O

    ct -1

    3 Ja

    n- 14

    Dollars per Ton

    US Domestic Contract

    EU Domestic Contract

    China Domestic

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    POLYCARBONATE RESIN PRICES

  • APIC 2014

    POLYCARBONATE RAW MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS

    • US Gulf Coast

    � Benzene – Record high spot prices; contract above $5/gal

    � Propylene – Tighter market supplies keeping prices elevated

    • Northwest Europe � Benzene – Average Q1 2014 contract more than €1000/ton

    � Propylene – Contract prices hold firm at €1100/ton in Q1

    • China/Asia � Benzene – Spot, contract prices in $1200-1300/ton range

    � Propylene – Prices close to $1300-1400/ton in Q1 2014

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

  • -300

    -200

    -100

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Margin = [Bisphenol A - (0.88 x Phenol + 0.29 x Acetone)]

    Dollars per Ton

    United States

    West Europe

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    BISPHENOL A MARGINS over PRECURSORS

  • Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    WORLD POLYACETAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY

    15%

    16%

    9%

    1%

    16% 7%

    9%

    5%

    19%

    3%

    0%

    Total = 1.08 Million Metric Tons

    2010

    9%

    11%

    5%

    1%

    10%

    4%

    11%

    6%

    33%

    7%

    3%

    Total = 1.7 Million Metric Tons

    2015 United States

    Germany

    Netherlands

    Poland

    Japan

    Taiwan

    South Korea

    Thailand

    China

    Malaysia

    Saudi Arabia

  • 1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000 Ja

    n- 09

    A pr

    -0 9

    Ju l-0

    9 O

    ct -0

    9 Ja

    n- 10

    A pr

    -1 0

    Ju l-1

    0 O

    ct -1

    0 Ja

    n- 11

    A pr

    -1 1

    Ju l-1

    1 O

    ct -1

    1 Ja

    n- 12

    A pr

    -1 2

    Ju l-1

    2 O

    ct -1

    2 Ja

    n- 13

    A pr

    -1 3

    Ju l-1

    3 O

    ct -1

    3 Ja

    n- 14

    Dollars per Ton

    US Domestic Contract

    EU Domestic Contract

    China Domestic

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    POLYACETAL COPOLYMER RESIN PRICES

  • 0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1,000

    Ja n-

    09 A

    pr -0

    9 Ju

    l-0 9

    O ct

    -0 9

    Ja n-

    10 A

    pr -1

    0 Ju

    l-1 0

    O ct

    -1 0

    Ja n-

    11 A

    pr -1

    1 Ju

    l-1 1

    O ct

    -1 1

    Ja n-

    12 A

    pr -1

    2 Ju

    l-1 2

    O ct

    -1 2

    Ja n-

    13 A

    pr -1

    3 Ju

    l-1 3

    O ct

    -1 3

    Ja n-

    14 A

    pr -1

    4

    Dollars per Ton

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    METHANOL CONTRACT PRICES vs BRENT and HENRY HUB

    Asia

    N. America

    W. Europe

    Brent

    Henry Hub

  • 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2017 2020 0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1,800

    2,000

    1,000 Metric Tons

    W&E Europe

    N America

    ME/Africa

    S&SE Asia

    NE Asia

    China

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    WORLD PBT RESIN CAPACITY GROWTH

    2014 Capacity: 1.8 Million Tons

  • APIC 2014

    POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE

    • Global PBT market ‘regionalised’ in terms of virgin resin as compounded material makes up large percentage of import/export volumes.

    • PBT resin in US market mostly sold as compounded material. Monthly pricing prevalent for compounded volumes.

    • European market contract prices relatively flat in 2013-2014. Spot material from Asia makes little impact.

    • China domestic and import business typically concluded on spot volumes due to over-supply.

    • China import prices trended lower during 2013

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

  • Electrical 33%

    IT 12%

    Other 16%

    Automotive 39%

    2013 960,000 Metric Tons

    APIC 2014

    WORLD PBT DEMAND BY END-USE

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

  • 22%

    19%

    3%

    1% 24%

    31%

  • 0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    2,500

    3,000

    3,500

    4,000

    4,500

    Ja n-0

    9 Ap

    r-0 9

    Ju l-0

    9 O

    ct- 09

    Ja n-1

    0 Ap

    r-1 0

    Ju l-1

    0 O

    ct- 10

    Ja n-1

    1 Ap

    r-1 1

    Ju l-1

    1 O

    ct- 11

    Ja n-1

    2 Ap

    r-1 2

    Ju l-1

    2 O

    ct- 12

    Ja n-1

    3 Ap

    r-1 3

    Ju l-1

    3 O

    ct- 13

    Ja n-1

    4

    Dollars per Ton

    Acrylonitrile

    Butadiene

    Styrene

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

    APIC 2014

    ASIAN ABS RAW MATERIAL PRICES

  • APIC 2014

    ‘GREEN’ ENGINEERING THERMOPLASTICS

    Slowly But Surely

    • Polyamide 11 – Produced from castor oil by Arkema.

    • Polyamide 12 – Evonik operating pilot plant producing bio-lauric acid from palm kernel oil.

    • Bio-PBT – Lanxess, Toray using Genomatica's bio- based 1,4 butanediol as feedstock.

    • ‘DURABIO’ – Isosorbide-based plastic manufactured by Mitsubishi Chemical Corp. Touted as alternative to polycarbonate.

    • Widespread use in Engineering Thermoplastics still some years away.

    Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

  • APIC 2014

    SUMMARY/CONCLUSIONS