Environmental Technical Working Group Meeting – IERM

Discussion

October 16, 2003

Overview

Review/Discussion for PI Conceptual Model Diagrams

Outstanding Issues Organized by Subgroup

Discussion of Habitat Modeling and Correspondence/Categorization

IERM Conceptual Model – Lake Ontario

Wetland Habitat

•Meadow marsh area•Cattail area•Floating leaf area

Lake Ontario Water Level

•Weekly W L time series

Water Temperature

•Nearshore temperature•Wetland temperature

Wetland Birds

•Suitable habitat area (acres)•Nesting success

Fish (multiple species)

•Year-class strength (no./yr)•Biomass (kg/ha)•Production (no./ha/yr)

Muskrats

•Muskrat houses per acre

•Frequency of low-water years

•Frequency of high-water years

•Nest access

•Nest flooding

•Cattail usage

•Timing of spawning events

•Wetland access

•Stranding potential

•Habitat loss due to flooding/stranding

•Weighted usable area for various life stages

•Weighted usable area

Endangered Species

•Suitable habitat area

Amphibians/Reptiles

•Suitable habitat area

•WL fluctuations

•Flood magnitude/duration

•Weighted usable area

•Weighted usable area

Wetland Habitat

•Meadow marsh area•Cattail area•Floating leaf area

Lake Ontario Water Level

•Weekly W L time series

Water Temperature

•Nearshore temperature•Wetland temperature

Wetland Birds

•Suitable habitat area (acres)•Nesting success

Fish (multiple species)

•Year-class strength (no./yr)•Biomass (kg/ha)•Production (no./ha/yr)

Muskrats

•Muskrat houses per acre

•Frequency of low-water years

•Frequency of high-water years

•Nest access

•Nest flooding

•Cattail usage

•Timing of spawning events

•Wetland access

•Stranding potential

•Habitat loss due to flooding/stranding

•Weighted usable area for various life stages

•Weighted usable area

Endangered Species

•Suitable habitat area

Amphibians/Reptiles

•Suitable habitat area

•WL fluctuations

•Flood magnitude/duration

•Weighted usable area

•Weighted usable area

Wetland Plant Sub-Model (LO/USL)

“Average” Wetland Topography

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

LO/USL Water Level Time Series

•Maximum level in 2 consecutive quarter monthly periods

•Average water level for growing season

Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected EmbaymentLO/USL Wetland Area

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

% Species Composition @ Specific Elevations

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

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Feed to Faunal Sub-Models

Feed to Faunal Sub-Models

Wetland Plant PI Measures

Wetland Plant Effects

Fish Sub-Model (LO/USL/LSL?)

LO/USL Water Level Time Series

•Interpolated daily values

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LO/USL Water Temperature Time

Series

•Daily values corrected based on depth/location

Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

Emergent Vegetation

Habitat Variables (20-m grid)

Submergent Vegetation

Water Depth

Substrate

Population Models (life stages: #/ha)

•Northern pike

•Yellow perch

•Smallmouth bass

•Largemouth bass

Local Habitat Patch WSA (ha)

Guild-Based WSA for system (ha) S

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Fish PI Measures

Velocity

Wetland Sub-Model

Daily input

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Fish Effects

Wetland Bird Sub-Model (LO/USL)

LO/USL Water Levels

•Quarter monthly time series

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Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

Significant Trends in Population Potential (#)

•Various species

Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)

•Various species

Significance of Recruitment

Impacts?

•Various species

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Wetland Bird Effects

Nest Losses (%) (Flooding)

•Various species

Wetland Sub-Model

H&H Inputs

Wetland Bird PI Measures

Diversity of Bird Assemblages

(Shannon-Weaver Index)

Species-At-Risk Sub-Model (LO/USL)

LO/USL Water Levels

•Quarter monthly time series

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Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat

•Various species

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Species-At-Risk Effects

Wetland Sub-Model

H&H Inputs

Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)

•Various species

Species-At-Risk PI Measures

Herptile Sub-Model (LO/USL)

LO/USL Water Levels

•Quarter monthly time series

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Total Estimated Area of Plant Species (ha)

•Barrier Beach

•Drowned River Mouth

•Protected Embayment

•Unprotected Embayment

Turtle Survival (# or %)

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Herptile Effects

Wetland Sub-Model

H&H Inputs

Weighted Suitable Habitat (ha)

•Various species

Herptile PI Measures

Positive/Negative Impact on Habitat

Supply

•Various species

Nest/Egg Survival (# or %)

Muskrat Sub-Model (LO/USL)

LO/USL Water Levels

•Fall variability (?)

•Winter variability (?)

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Significant loss of muskrats based on

threshold?

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Muskrat PI Measures

H&H Inputs

Muskrat House Flooding/ Stranding Potential (% loss?)

Muskrat Effects

Dabbling Duck Sub-Model (LSL)

LSL Water Levels

•Quarter monthly time series

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Total Estimated Area of Plant Species/Classes

(ha)

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Dabbling Duck Effects

Wetland Sub-Model

H&H Inputs

Brooding Success

Migration Success

Nest Survival (% survival)

Total Suitable Habitat Supply/Area (ha)

Significant Effects On Population

Dabbling Duck PI Measures

Significant Effects?

Summary of Outstanding Issues

Wetland Plants Connecting plant community results to faunal sub-models / ca

Understanding potential extent of wetland evolution in LSL (Morin)

Fish Streamlining population modeling approaches for LO, USL, and LSL (Minns/Morin/Farrell)

Availability of 100-year temperature time series

Refining data/approach for lakewide suitable habitat GIS-based computations

Tying in fish migration study (DeLafontaine)

Summary of Outstanding Issues

Wetland Birds Reducing list of key habitat/hydrological variables to be included

Connecting nest losses (due to flooding) to significant effects on productivity

Dabbling Ducks Importance of long-term changes in habitat Study only includes LSL Rationale for exclusion of dabbling duck predictions for LO and USL?

Summary of Outstanding Issues

Species-At-Risk Reducing list of species to be modeled (already done for lower river)

Use of “hot spots” vs. overall impact on habitat

Muskrats Defining direct water level impacts on flooding/ freezing, etc.

Extending to lower river model Cattail herbivory feedback?

Herptiles Identifying specific habitat/hydrological variables to be included

General IERM/SVM Logistical Issues

Merging calculations for LO and USL with LSL 2-dimensional model (Morin)

Complexity and computer run-time for: Lower river model GIS-based habitat calculations for LO/USL

Refining significance of effects – “meaningful” output for SVM