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ESA-listed Snake River Salmon: What’s the link to Snake River dams? John G. Williams NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle [email protected] Conference on Large Scale Water Infrastructure: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON LARGE DAMS 3-5 November 2006 - New Haven, Connecticut, USA

ESA-listed Snake River Salmon: What’s the link to Snake River dams? John G. Williams NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle [email protected]

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ESA-listed Snake RiverSalmon:

What’s the link toSnake River dams?

John G. WilliamsNOAANorthwest Fisheries Science [email protected]

Conference on Large Scale Water Infrastructure:GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES ON LARGE DAMS3-5 November 2006 - New Haven, Connecticut, USA

Poll

Snake River damsor

salmon

Can we have both?

Decision makers need to know ---

Is dam removal necessary?

Decision makers need to know ---Is dam removal necessary?Is dam removal sufficient?

•Salmon stocks pre- and post dam construction•Direct dam impacts•Modifications to dams•Where are we now?•Can we answer the questions?

Road Map

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

102030405060708090

100110120

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

Year

1000

s of

adu

lt re

turn

s

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

102030405060708090

100110120

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Bonneville, The Dalles, McNary, Ice Harbor

John Day

Lower Monumental

Little Goose

Lower Granite

Year

1000

s of

adu

lt re

turn

s Num

ber of Dam

s

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

102030405060708090

100110120

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

Adult return

Juvenile survival

Year

1000

s of

adu

lt re

turn

sJuvenile survival

No data

Changes to the hydropower system

Improvements or installation of juvenile bypass systems at dams

Transportation by barge

0

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1000011000120001300014000

Natural

Regulated

Month

Flo

w (

m3·s

ec-1

)

0

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1000011000120001300014000

Natural

Regulated

Month

Flo

w (

m3·s

ec-1

)

Changes in water storage

Changes in turbine operations

Spill designated for fish

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

102030405060708090

100110120

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

Year

1000

s of

adu

lt re

turn

s

Status reviewsand ESA-listing ofsalmon andsteelhead

Transportationbegan

Bypassdevelopment& improvement

Columbia River salmon ESUs (13 of 17 listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act)

Snake River – Sockeye Salmon - Sockeye SalmonChinook salmon - spring-summer run; fall-runSteelhead - Steelhead

Columbia River – Sockeye Salmon - Lake Wenatchee/Okanogan RiverChinook salmon - Upper spring-run, Upper summer-fall run, Middle spring-run, Deschutes River summer-fall run, LowerSteelhead - Upper, Middle, and Lower Coho salmon - LowerChum salmon - Lower

Upper Willamette River - Chinook salmon; Steelhead

Snake River Trap to Bonneville Dam TailracePer-project expansion in some years

1965 1970 1975 19800.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1995 2000 2005

Nodata

Spring-summer Chinook

Steelhead

58.1%

37.3%

Outmigration year

Hyd

rosy

stem

sur

viva

l

Other significant changes

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

102030405060708090

100110120

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation

to warm phase

Year

1000

s of

adu

lt re

turn

s

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

102030405060708090

100110120

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation

to warm phase

to cold phase

Year

1000

s of

adu

lt re

turn

s

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

1

2

3

4

5

Wild Snake River spring-summerChinook salmon

Change in PacificDecadal Oscillation

to warm phase

to cold phase

Year

SA

R (

catc

h + e

scap

emen

t)

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 20070.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

*

* Incomplete adult returns

In-river survial

SAR

Outmigration year

Hyd

rop

ow

er s

yste

m s

urv

ival

SA

R (%

)Snake River wild spring-summerChinook salmon

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

R2 = 0.03P = 0.61

Wild spring-summer Chinook salmon

Hydropower system survival

SAR (%

)

Estimated fall chinook salmon returnsto Lower Granite Dam

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Natural fishin 2005estimated

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

Total return

Year

Nat

ural

fis

h re

turn

Total adult return

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

SR wild s-s Chinook salmon

SR sockeye salmon

Adult return year

Escap

em

en

t to

up

per

SR

dam

Escap

em

en

t to u

pp

er S

R d

am

Context

Stocks naturally fluctuate

Baumgartner et al. 1992 CalCofi

Schindler et al. 2006 CJFAS

Chance (1973) - information from early pioneer diaries:

In 1811 and in the late 1820s the middle Columbia River (between the confluence of the Snake River and Kettle Falls) had salmon populations so low that settlersand Native Americans relied on horseflesh for survival

0

1

2

3

4

5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year of ocean entry

SA

R (

%)

observed

forecast

90% CI

Scheuerell and Williams 2005 Fisheries Oceanography

R2=0.71

Wild fish escapement aboveupper Snake River dam

19601965197019751980198519901995200020050.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Steelhead

S-S Chinook

Outmigration Year

SA

R(3

-yr.

ru

nn

ing

ave

rag

e)

Wild fish escapement aboveupper Snake River dam

19601965197019751980198519901995200020050.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Steelhead

S-S Chinook0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

5-year median harvest rate

Outmigration Year

SA

R(3

-yr.

ru

nn

ing

aver

age)

Harvest rate

Estimated fall chinook salmon returnsto Lower Granite Dam

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

Year

Nat

ural

fis

h re

turn H

arvest rate

Harvest rate

Do dams effect fish?

Do dams effect fish?Could we harvestadults at higher rateswithout dams?

Do dams effect fish?Could we harvestadults at higher rateswithout dams?Is recovery limited by dams?

If the evidence was clear, the debate would not rage