EU in the Mediterranean EU in the Mediterranean From EMP to ENP to UfM From EMP to ENP to UfM

to ?to ?

Panayotis J. Tsakonas – Dimitris XenakisPanayotis J. Tsakonas – Dimitris XenakisUniversity of the AegeanUniversity of the Aegean

GOSEM – Rethymnon, Crete 2013GOSEM – Rethymnon, Crete 2013

2004ENP

2008UfM

PreviousEuropean

Approaches

1995EMP

Barcelona Process1995-2005

Background and Previous European Approaches in the Mediterranean

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP)The Barcelona ProcessThe European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM)

Assessing EU Policies in the MediterraneanProblems and Prospects after the ‘Arab Spring’

Previous European Previous European Approaches in the Approaches in the

Mediterranean – Bilateral Mediterranean – Bilateral AgreementsAgreements EEC member states goalEEC member states goal: :

develop cooperation with countries and territories they develop cooperation with countries and territories they had special political, economic and cultural relations due had special political, economic and cultural relations due to their colonial past. – 1970s = “global Mediterranean to their colonial past. – 1970s = “global Mediterranean policy” ; 1980s “new Mediterranean policy” policy” ; 1980s “new Mediterranean policy”

1976 & 1977: Bilateral Agreements1976 & 1977: Bilateral Agreements MaghrebMaghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia) and countries (Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia) and MashreqMashreq countries (Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon). countries (Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon). Direct Direct aidaid and and tradetrade followed and governed followed and governed relationships up to 1996.relationships up to 1996.

1989-1994: some more limited European 1989-1994: some more limited European InitiativesInitiatives e.g., “the e.g., “the Mediterranean Forum”, “the 5+5 in the Forum”, “the 5+5 in the Western Mediterranean”, “the Mediterranean Council”, Western Mediterranean”, “the Mediterranean Council”, the “CSCM” etc. the “CSCM” etc. Far from triggering any specific attention to the goal of Far from triggering any specific attention to the goal of building a building a more integrated Mediterranean region.more integrated Mediterranean region.

EU’s Post Cold War Mediterranean EU’s Post Cold War Mediterranean ObjectivesObjectives

Bipolatity disappears and the Bipolatity disappears and the West turns towards the West turns towards the ‘unstable Mediterranean‘unstable Mediterranean’’

zone of socio-economic instability with violent religious and zone of socio-economic instability with violent religious and cultural conflicts varying forms of political and economic cultural conflicts varying forms of political and economic institutions institutions

differing perceptions of security and worldviewsdiffering perceptions of security and worldviews intra-Mediterranean trade remains limitedintra-Mediterranean trade remains limited north-south economic disparity is resulting in a permanent north-south economic disparity is resulting in a permanent

poverty curtain across the Mediterraneanpoverty curtain across the Mediterranean the demographic time-bomb continues tickingthe demographic time-bomb continues ticking illegal migration is reaching alarming levelsillegal migration is reaching alarming levels escalation of protracted conflicts remains a serious concern. escalation of protracted conflicts remains a serious concern.

EU’s “wishful thinking” for its southern rimEU’s “wishful thinking” for its southern rim:: States that will not be at war with each other;States that will not be at war with each other; be destabilized by socio-economic and political conflicts;be destabilized by socio-economic and political conflicts; export terrorism, or drugs to Europe;export terrorism, or drugs to Europe; threaten Europe’s social stability by continued or even sharply threaten Europe’s social stability by continued or even sharply

increased flows of illegal immigration.increased flows of illegal immigration.

Deepening Euro-Med Relations is a Win-Deepening Euro-Med Relations is a Win-Win SituationWin Situation

The Mediterranean frontier poses enormous demographic and geostrategic advantages.

This region has the potential to act as a nexus of cultural dialogue.

EU's security and prosperity can only be assured if the South also enjoys security and prosperity.

A stable and prosperous Mediterranean will reinforce Europe’s position in the world.

Importance of the EU on the global Market (27 members),

28% share of the world GDP; 40% of the world merchandise and services trade; 51% out of the world FDI outflows;

Ranks 2nd after ASEAN bloc in terms of the population

More than 50% of the Mediterranean countries’ trade is with the EU; about 70% of the exports of many

Mediterranean countries are directed towards the EU

The European Perspective

The Mediterranean Perspective

A New Beginning: The Barcelona A New Beginning: The Barcelona ProcessProcess

November 1995, the signing of the Barcelona Declaration.

Three baskets/pillars of cooperation and a follow up mechanism to ensure continuity of the “process”.

Two Dimensions: Regional track (on common issues) and Bilateral Association Agreements

One specific financial instrument MEDA (I & II)

The Euro-Mediterranean The Euro-Mediterranean PartnershipPartnership

Membership: EU-25 & 10 Mediterranean Partners (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey). Libya gained observer status in 1999.

The RationaleThe Rationale

The EU attempted to use ‘soft power’ through economic and fiscal instruments rather than military power to solve critical regional problems from its’ southern rim. Interest-convergence around economic tasks usually contributes to a relaxation of tensions in areas where controversy is more likely to arise.

The basket-based structure and the follow-up continuity in line with the Helsinki paradigm (CSCE) could have proved instrumental in fostering a new co-operative ethos among its members (based on communitarian aims and shared values)

From a Realist Perspective: EMP was built for: Countering US influence in the region; Controlling the region through the creation of asymmetrical dependency relationships; Containing the emergence of political Islam.

The Goals of the EMPThe Goals of the EMP

Setting up an area of peace and Setting up an area of peace and securitysecurity

Providing welfare and development to Providing welfare and development to that area that area

Enhancing its social and human Enhancing its social and human cooperationcooperation

An ‘Institutionalist An ‘Institutionalist Paradise’Paradise’

Euro-Med Foreign Affairs Ministerial MeetingsEuro-Med Foreign Affairs Ministerial Meetings Euro-Med Meetings of Sectorial MinistersEuro-Med Meetings of Sectorial Ministers Euro-Med Committee and Group of Senior OfficialsEuro-Med Committee and Group of Senior Officials Euro-Med Parliamentary AssemblyEuro-Med Parliamentary Assembly Euro-Med Civil ForumEuro-Med Civil Forum Euro-Mediterranean Study Committee (EuroMeSCo)Euro-Mediterranean Study Committee (EuroMeSCo) Anna Lindh Euro-Med Foundation for the Dialogue Anna Lindh Euro-Med Foundation for the Dialogue

Between CulturesBetween Cultures Euro-Med Human Rights Network Euro-Med Human Rights Network Euro-Med HeritageEuro-Med Heritage Euro-Med Youth Platform Euro-Med Youth Platform Euro-Med Economic and Social CommitteeEuro-Med Economic and Social Committee Euro-Med Committee of RegionsEuro-Med Committee of Regions

MEDA & FEDIPMEDA & FEDIP Principal financial instruments of the EU for Principal financial instruments of the EU for

implementation of co-operation with Mediterranean implementation of co-operation with Mediterranean partners (Implemented by DG EuropAid it had a partners (Implemented by DG EuropAid it had a double vocation: bilateral and regional)double vocation: bilateral and regional)

Offered technical & financial support for the reform Offered technical & financial support for the reform of economic and social structures in the of economic and social structures in the Mediterranean partners (applied to States, their Mediterranean partners (applied to States, their local and regional authorities as well as actors of local and regional authorities as well as actors of their civil society)their civil society)

MEDA I: 1995-1999 : €3,435 million - MEDA II: MEDA I: 1995-1999 : €3,435 million - MEDA II: 2000-2006: €5,350 million.2000-2006: €5,350 million.

Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment and Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment and Partnership (FEDIP) – Oct. 2002 (a special financial Partnership (FEDIP) – Oct. 2002 (a special financial instrument within the European Investment Bank)instrument within the European Investment Bank)

Agreements Negotiated and Agreements Negotiated and RatifiedRatified

Bilateral Agreements Negotiated:Tunisia (1995), Israel (1995), Morocco (1996) , Jordan (1997), Egypt (2001), Algeria (2002), Lebanon (2002) and Syria (2004).

Bilateral Agreements Ratified:Tunisia (1998), Morocco (2000), Israel (2000), Jordan (2002) and Egypt (2004).

Regional Agreements:Agadir Agreement signed in February 2004 by Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan. This expressed the intention to set up a free trade area, to meet the 2010 target. The Agadir Declaration was signed in 2001, and was supported with €4m by the EU.

Euro-Med Meetings Euro-Med Meetings 1995-20071995-2007

9th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Lisbon, 5-6/11/20079th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Lisbon, 5-6/11/2007 8th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Tampere, 27-28/11/20068th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Tampere, 27-28/11/2006 Anniversary Euro-Mediterranean Summit - Barcelona, 27-28 November Anniversary Euro-Mediterranean Summit - Barcelona, 27-28 November

20052005 7th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Luxembourg, 30-31 May 20057th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Luxembourg, 30-31 May 2005 Mid Term Euro-Mediterranean Conference - The Hague, 29-30 Mid Term Euro-Mediterranean Conference - The Hague, 29-30

November 2004November 2004 Mid Term Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Dublin, 5-6 May 2004Mid Term Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Dublin, 5-6 May 2004 6th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Naples, 2-3 December 2003 6th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Naples, 2-3 December 2003 Mid Term Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Crete, 26-27 May 2003Mid Term Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Crete, 26-27 May 2003 5th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Valencia, 22-23 April 20025th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Valencia, 22-23 April 2002 Interim Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Brussels, 5-6 November Interim Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Brussels, 5-6 November

20012001 4th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Marseille, 15-16 November 20004th Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Marseille, 15-16 November 2000 3rd Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Stuttgart, 15-16 April 19993rd Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Stuttgart, 15-16 April 1999 Ad hoc Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Palermo, 3-4 June 1998Ad hoc Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Palermo, 3-4 June 1998 2nd Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Malta, 15-16 April 19972nd Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Malta, 15-16 April 1997 1st Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Barcelona, 27-28 November 19951st Euro-Mediterranean Conference - Barcelona, 27-28 November 1995

Has EMP Been Has EMP Been Successful ?Successful ?

No effects on political cooperation (including democratization and human rights), limited economic results and unimpressive progress in regional social relations

Problematic and rather sensitive areas of regional cooperation such as immigration, energy, security and political stability were not properly addressed The Middle East Peace Process was stagnated and intra-regional tensions were deepened Systemic tension has been steadily increasing with the demonized Islam and the events that followed September 11th; Intervention by foreign powers, e.g. the US-led occupation of Iraq continue adversely to influence the levels of security in the region.

Weak responses to Med Partners’ economic and social demandsWeak responses to Med Partners’ economic and social demands; ; CAP prevented trade in agriculture, a key area for the Mediterranean CAP prevented trade in agriculture, a key area for the Mediterranean

countries; countries; Trade relations were extremely unbalanced (agriculture)Trade relations were extremely unbalanced (agriculture)

Limited cooperation among the Mediterranean partner-Limited cooperation among the Mediterranean partner-countriescountries;; Mediterranean countries expected more constructive Mediterranean countries expected more constructive cooperation from EU.cooperation from EU.

EU’s Med relations still move on the basis of bilateral rather than EU’s Med relations still move on the basis of bilateral rather than regional basis.regional basis.

EU’s internal inertia underminedEU’s internal inertia undermined the capacity and political the capacity and political willingness of partner countries to implement the wide range of willingness of partner countries to implement the wide range of reforms originally planned.reforms originally planned.

In its search for a more effective Mediterranean policy, the EU has faced the dilemma of how to reconcile essentially political and security objectives with limited trade and financial instruments.

Other impediments relate to the existence and endurance of authoritarian regimes. Political openings and initiatives in the southern Mediterranean have so far remained cautious, selective and controlled by regimes in office.

European Neighborhood European Neighborhood PolicyPolicy After it’s enlargement a new framework was launched in 2004 by

the EU to create a ‘ring of friends’ and to avoid new ‘dividing lines’.

It does not include countries with EU accession prospect:

- Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan & Russia (special strategic status)

- Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco.

ENP PrinciplesENP Principles The new framework the EU aspired for it’s partners: “To

share benefits of the EU’s 2004 enlargement”; …“To strengthen Security, Stability, Well-being”; …“To develop a mutual commitment to common values” (Rule of law, Good governance, Respect for HR, Principles of market economy & Sustainable development); ….and to enhance economic relations and closer cooperation - Working together (joint ownership) … supporting partners’ own reform processes; and to provide access to EU internal market and programs.

Voluntary Basis Voluntary Basis (increasing flexibility);(increasing flexibility); Differentiated and Progressive approach: Differentiated and Progressive approach: Privileged Privileged

relationships relationships build upon a mutual commitment to common build upon a mutual commitment to common values, values, as well as the capacity to implement agreed as well as the capacity to implement agreed prioritiespriorities”;”;

Positive ConditionalityPositive Conditionality: : Monitoring process of Monitoring process of implementation with a financial incentive: European implementation with a financial incentive: European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) + Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) + Governance Facility;Governance Facility;

ENP Action Plans & ReportsENP Action Plans & Reports Bilateral Action Plans are jointly agreed political

documents that define objectives and actions for reforms and influence technical assistance provided by the EU (there are no regional plans).

Not Legally binding ; Country-specific political documents, build upon existing Association Agreements - Commitment to “Common Values” from the Barcelona aquis.

Jointly defined agenda on political & economic reforms. Same six chapters in all Action Plans, but content specific to each partner. Priorities: Political dialogue and reforms, Macro-Economic Management, Trade, Migration, Justice and Home affairs, Transport, Energy, Information Society, Environment, People-to-People contacts.

Country Reports are EU analyses of the politico-economic situation that form the basis for the development and assessment of the Action Plans.

1.1. Financial InstrumentsFinancial Instruments

European Neighborhood European Neighborhood

and Partnership and Partnership

Instrument (Instrument (ENPIENPI))

Facility for Euro-Facility for Euro-

Mediterranean Mediterranean

Investment and Investment and

Partnership (Partnership (FEMIPFEMIP))

Neighborhood Neighborhood

Investment FundInvestment Fund

2.Technical Assistance Instruments

Technical Assistance & Information Exchange

(TAIEX)

Twinning Mechanism

Competitive and Innovation Program (CIP)

7th Research Framework Program – (FP7)

EU Financial and Technical Assistance EU Financial and Technical Assistance InstrumentsInstruments

The ENP Instrument & The ENP Instrument & Implementation ToolsImplementation Tools

The ENPI replaced instruments for external policies (geographic and thematic), eg. MEDA & TACIS, and is one of the three major geographical financial instruments of EU external policies.

Implementation ToolsCountry or multi-country (multi-bilateral) programs: i) Covering assistance to one partner country; ii) addressing regional or sub-regional cooperation

between two or more partner countries. Cross-border cooperation programs covering

cooperation between one or more Member States and one or more partner countries, taking place in regions adjacent to the shared part of the external border of the EU.

Thematic programs, addressing one or more specific challenges which may be relevant to one or more Member States.

ENP ‘Advantages’ENP ‘Advantages’ ENP is an ambitious new framework for EU’s relations ENP is an ambitious new framework for EU’s relations

with neighbors; It with neighbors; It embodies the "Wider Europe" conceptembodies the "Wider Europe" concept, , namely that the EU will act to promote regional namely that the EU will act to promote regional cooperation and integrationcooperation and integration

ENP is ENP is of mutual, long-term interest, offering betterof mutual, long-term interest, offering better possibilitiespossibilities for closer cooperation with the EU for closer cooperation with the EU

It provides support for reforms (It provides support for reforms (both political and both political and financial commitmentfinancial commitment) with the establishment of ) with the establishment of a a dedicated financial instrumentdedicated financial instrument, with , with more resourcesmore resources and and more flexible fundingmore flexible funding of of a broader range of activitiesa broader range of activities

Through the development of the regional initiatives within Through the development of the regional initiatives within the ENP framework, itthe ENP framework, it offers considerable financial and offers considerable financial and technical assistance and a plethoratechnical assistance and a plethora of opportunities to be of opportunities to be used and implemented.used and implemented.

Reinvigorating ENPReinvigorating ENP

The renewed ENP policy points towards issues that should be reconsidered: It needs to be even more policy-driven, reflecting the ENP vision and addressing specific challenges

Main orientations Simplification and shortening of the

programming process; Modernization of implementation provisions and

alignment and coordination with other external and internal instruments and policies;

A specific Cross-Border Cooperation component; An increased budget: from 11.2 billion to 18.2

billion

Union for the Union for the MediterraneanMediterranean

Launched by Sarkozy in 2007. After the Franco-German agreement the EU Council

(March 2008) called it: “Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean”.

July 2008, Paris Summit under the co-presidency of The President of France & The President of Egypt.

UfM is a partnership, where Northern and Southern countries of the Mediterranean are working on an equal-footing basis, based on “co-responsibility”, “co-appropriation” and “co-decision”.

The UfM believes in the value of “Variable Geometry”: each country is collaborating on a project on a voluntary basis respecting national interests of each member states.

Union for the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM)Mediterranean (UfM)

Objective:Objective: to build on and reinforce the successful elements of to build on and reinforce the successful elements of the existing Barcelona Process based on: the existing Barcelona Process based on:

Enhanced multilateral relationsEnhanced multilateral relations, , Increased co-ownership of the process Increased co-ownership of the process Concrete projects visible to the citizensConcrete projects visible to the citizens

Membership:Membership: Sarkozy’s initial plan included Sarkozy’s initial plan included only littoral statesonly littoral states and was and was to to function like the G8 meetings of Heads of States and function like the G8 meetings of Heads of States and governmentsgovernments, with a Council of the Mediterranean modeled on , with a Council of the Mediterranean modeled on the Council of Europe. Hence, the agreement reached to the Council of Europe. Hence, the agreement reached to establish the UfM was the result of the joint, informally establish the UfM was the result of the joint, informally orchestrated opposition of Germany, Poland and the UK to orchestrated opposition of Germany, Poland and the UK to unilateral French efforts to establish an exclusive regional unilateral French efforts to establish an exclusive regional cooperation framework.cooperation framework.

27 Member States of the European Union, 27 Member States of the European Union, 10 Mediterranean countries which are members of the 10 Mediterranean countries which are members of the

Barcelona ProcessBarcelona Process Other six countries bordering the Mediterranean (Other six countries bordering the Mediterranean (AlbaniaAlbania, ,

Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Monaco and Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Monaco and TurkeyTurkey). ).

Union for the Union for the MediterraneanMediterranean

Union for the Union for the MediterraneanMediterranean

Co-PresidencyCo-Presidency 2 directors 2 directors (one from the EU

and one from the Mediterranean countries).

Apply to Summits, all Ministerial meetings, Senior Officials meetings, the Joint Permanent Committee.

Biennial summits of Heads of Government was supposed to be held.

Union for the Union for the MediterraneanMediterranean

Institutional FrameworkInstitutional Framework

1.1.Joint SecretariatJoint Secretariat ((Barcelona))

2.2.Joint Permanent Joint Permanent Committee Committee (Brussels)(Brussels)

3.3.Senior OfficialsSenior Officials

Ministers reached a unanimous agreement on the Ministers reached a unanimous agreement on the participation of the Arab Leagueparticipation of the Arab League at all the meetings and at all the meetings and at all levels of the UfMat all levels of the UfM..

UfM OrganisationUfM OrganisationUfM Governance

•Co-presidencies (France and Egypt)

•Senior Officials (monthly summits)

Key InitiativesKey Initiatives

the de-pollution of the Mediterranean Sea, including coastal and protected marine areas;

the establishment of maritime and land highways that connect ports and improve rail connections so as to facilitate movement of people and goods;

a joint civil protection program on prevention, preparation and response to natural and man-made disasters;

a Mediterranean solar energy plan that explores opportunities for developing alternative energy sources in the region;

a Euro-Mediterranean University, inaugurated in Slovenia in June 2008;

the Mediterranean Business Development Initiative, which supports small businesses operating in the region by first assessing their needs and then providing technical assistance and access to finance.

Funding

Funding for regional projects and activities should come mainly from the EU and its Member States; the private sector; contributions from Mediterranean partners; International financial institutions; regional banks; FEMIP; ENPI

A Union of ProjectsA Union of Projects

UfM Added ValueUfM Added Value The French initiative offered Europe and the The French initiative offered Europe and the

international community an opportunity to carry out international community an opportunity to carry out a strategic reassessment that will allow fa strategic reassessment that will allow for more or more attention and resources to be directedattention and resources to be directed towards towards the Mediterranean. the Mediterranean.

Wider political visibility backed by 43 Wider political visibility backed by 43 countriescountries;;

Access to secured financeAccess to secured finance thanks to the enhanced thanks to the enhanced cooperation with the largest development banks cooperation with the largest development banks operating in the region (EIB, IDB, EBRD, etc);operating in the region (EIB, IDB, EBRD, etc);

ExpertsExperts for Upstream Advice, Technical Assistance for Upstream Advice, Technical Assistance and Support;and Support;

Extended networkExtended network of regional partners could of regional partners could multiply effects.multiply effects.

An Overall CritiqueAn Overall CritiqueContrary to expectations and despite the political capital invested, the Contrary to expectations and despite the political capital invested, the

UfM, which replaced the EMP in 2008, has UfM, which replaced the EMP in 2008, has failed to impart a new failed to impart a new momentummomentum. In the five years of its existence, it has produced . In the five years of its existence, it has produced very very limited resultslimited results. .

Because of the institutional arrangements adopted, it has obstructed Because of the institutional arrangements adopted, it has obstructed rather than facilitated political cooperation among states in the rather than facilitated political cooperation among states in the region and, region and, by putting economic projects in the forefrontby putting economic projects in the forefront, it has , it has pushed values, democracy and human rights to the back seatpushed values, democracy and human rights to the back seat. .

Although the UfM meant to reflect a more pragmatic approach to Although the UfM meant to reflect a more pragmatic approach to relations with the southern neighbors, it was relations with the southern neighbors, it was paralyzed already in paralyzed already in its early months by the region’s political realityits early months by the region’s political reality. Only a few . Only a few months after the Marseille Conference, Israel’s December 2008-months after the Marseille Conference, Israel’s December 2008-January 2009 military intervention in Gaza convinced Arab partners January 2009 military intervention in Gaza convinced Arab partners to plainly suspend the implementation of the new policy and all to plainly suspend the implementation of the new policy and all related meetings. related meetings.

Despite its economic character, the UfM is Despite its economic character, the UfM is more vulnerable than the more vulnerable than the EMP to the paralysis caused from the Arab-Israeli conflictEMP to the paralysis caused from the Arab-Israeli conflict. . Contrary to the technical meetings of the Barcelona Process, which Contrary to the technical meetings of the Barcelona Process, which brought together ambassadors and experts, in the Summits of the brought together ambassadors and experts, in the Summits of the UfM, UfM, all controversial issues will be on the agenda of all controversial issues will be on the agenda of discussionsdiscussions, regardless of the fact that some would prefer to abstain , regardless of the fact that some would prefer to abstain from such discussions to avoid stalemate.from such discussions to avoid stalemate.

UfM: The Way ForwardUfM: The Way Forward

The economic crisis and European negligible interest in investing in the Mediterranean region have practically rendered impossible the implementation of costly projects - the showcase of this initiative.

For sure, southern Mediterranean partners do not only expect additional EU aid for their economic development, but also deeper cooperation to deal with the vast challenges they face. Therefore, the focus on the implementation of sectoral projects [Union of Projects’] should not set aside critical region-wide issues, such as democracy-promotion, political reform and the strengthening of civil society, not to mention the prevention of another major outbreak of violence in the Middle East.

The vision paper on UfM roadmap presented (2012) to the 43 member countries and the European institutions proposed:

Realignment of UfM with EU priorities (more consistency with EU regional projects)

More coherence with UfM Ministerial meetings Focus priorities on job creation and support to least developed

regions

The ‘Arab Spring’The ‘Arab Spring’

17 Arab states from Morocco to Yemen have felt the ‘spring’;

3 have regime change & fresh constitution (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya);

3 seek progressive political reform (Morocco, Jordan, Oman);

4 use oil manna to keep status quo (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE);

4 have bloody repression or civil war (Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen), of which 2 external military intervention (Libya, Bahrain);

3 fragile but cautious because of civil war memories (Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq);

1 pushes for statehood (Palestine)

EU’s Democracy promotion & the EU’s Democracy promotion & the ‘Arab awakening’‘Arab awakening’

Paradigm identification – can the EU’s objective of Paradigm identification – can the EU’s objective of democratization of its neighborhooddemocratization of its neighborhood be driven by be driven by conditionality, or mainly socialization?conditionality, or mainly socialization?

Research suggests that Research suggests that conditionalityconditionality has has worked worked really well in the EU accession processreally well in the EU accession process, but not where , but not where there is no membership perspective.there is no membership perspective.

SocializationSocialization is all about attitudes, awareness, is all about attitudes, awareness, education, understanding of values, etc. It is a education, understanding of values, etc. It is a long-termlong-term and hardly measurable process, and hardly measurable process, but fundamental.but fundamental.

Arab spring was home-grown, not a result of external Arab spring was home-grown, not a result of external policies. policies.

EU’s response to Arab spring is renewal of EU’s response to Arab spring is renewal of ‘Conditionality’ discourse, ‘more for more’ - ‘Conditionality’ discourse, ‘more for more’ - unconvincing, but convenient for speeches of ministers. unconvincing, but convenient for speeches of ministers.

Democracy technical assistance worth doing where Democracy technical assistance worth doing where welcome, but don’t think you can buy in democracy on welcome, but don’t think you can buy in democracy on the cheap.the cheap.

An Overburden Security An Overburden Security EnvironmentEnvironment

Traditional long-standing conflicts Traditional long-standing conflicts

Non-traditional threats and Non-traditional threats and challengeschallenges

Potential conflicts Potential conflicts over the right of over the right of certain states to exploit energy certain states to exploit energy resources in contested areas resources in contested areas

Main Routes

EU Energy SecurityEU Energy Security

EU NeedsEU Needs

Gas demandGas demand will remain fairly stable or will remain fairly stable or slightly slightly increase increase in the coming years to reach 550-600 bcm per in the coming years to reach 550-600 bcm per year by 2020; year by 2020;

EU gas dependency on sources outside EuropeEU gas dependency on sources outside Europe will will increase from about increase from about 60 percent in 201060 percent in 2010 to about to about 75 75 percent in 2020percent in 2020 and to over and to over 80 percent in 203080 percent in 2030. .

Some Some 65 percent of the oil and natural gas 65 percent of the oil and natural gas consumed in Western Europe passes through the consumed in Western Europe passes through the Mediterranean each year Mediterranean each year

EU Security PrioritiesEU Security PrioritiesPrioritization of Threats and Challenges to EU’s security on Prioritization of Threats and Challenges to EU’s security on Institutional Documents / Incorporated in the Lisbon Treaty: Institutional Documents / Incorporated in the Lisbon Treaty: ««European Security Strategy DocumentEuropean Security Strategy Document»» (2003)(2003), , «Report on the Impementation of the European «Report on the Impementation of the European Security StrategySecurity Strategy» (2008) » (2008) ««Annual Reports of the EU’s High Representative for Annual Reports of the EU’s High Representative for External Affairs and Security PolicyExternal Affairs and Security Policy» (2009,2011) » (2009,2011)

(1)(1)Diaspora of Weapons of Mass DestructionDiaspora of Weapons of Mass Destruction

(2)(2)Terrorism and Organized CrimeTerrorism and Organized Crime

(3)(3)Cyber-securityCyber-security

(4)(4)Energy SecurityEnergy Security

(5)(5)Climate ChangeClimate Change

The neighbourhood has fundamental importance for the functioning of the EU and its member states economiesArab Spring: dynamics suggest that it is early to speak of black scenarios. The conduct of a new policy towards the neighbors is largely a matter of the member states’ political will.Emergence of a new way of thinking: stabilization must not be furthered at the expense of democratization.

The EU’s Mediterranean policies have been and will long remain hostage to the member states national ambitions and their economic interests. If Europeans genuinely desire to democratize the neighborhood and give credibility to the EU offer, the member states should be called upon to take decisions on trade liberalization of agricultural products, and to declare the introduction of measures facilitating the movement of persons from the South.

Final Final NoteNote