EVs: The Road Ahead

Experts: electric vehicles are needed desperately; happily, they can be produced affordably in quite modest volumes; more attention to infrastructure and education is urged

4 2 0015-9235/98/$10 0001998 IEEE IEEE SPECTRUM DECEMBER 1998

PHOTOGRAPHS BRUCE LUM

The high-performance tZero [top] by AC Propulsion Inc., San Dimas, Calif., tows an optional range-extending charging station. Panelists Bruce Kopf [below, behind] and David Holloway are scrutinizing a vintage Baker Electric.

JOHN DUNLAP: We have more confidence in the automakers than they have in themselves. CALIFORNIA, AS WE ALL KNOW, has the greatest air quality challenge in the country. Over the course of the last 30 or 40 years, as we've learned more about air pollution, we've devoted a lot of time and attention to understand- ing where it comes from. About half of the ozone precursors in this air basin [the Greater Los Angeles area] come from mobile sources.

Because of the climate and the vibrant economy we've enjoyed in this state, we have developed a car culture here, and as the population continues to grow, people are going to be acquiring more vehicles. Moreover, we find that our vehicle fleet lasts for a long time. As we analyzed the fleet makeup, we deter- mined that we needed to have a greater infusion of cleaner vehicles, and that led us to this goal of zero tailpipe emissions, ZEVs [zero-emission vehicles], and the regulatory approach we've taken.

California will need approximately 800 000 zero- emission vehicles within the next 12 years if it is to meet the public health goals set by the Federal and state governments. ZEVs have no evaporative or refueling emissions, a significant source of emissions from gasoline car vehicles as we all know. ZEVs have no emission control equipment that can deteriorate over time and cause increases in emissions as cars age.

What is government's role in the future? In California, the ZEV program has spurred numerous advancements not only in batteries and battery-powered vehicle technology-we're very proud of that-but also in the development of other extremely low-emit- ting vehicles such as hybrid electric vehicles and those powered by fuel cells. The state and our Air Resources Board

the Boards role as evolving greatly over the past three, four, or five years. It's much less about regulatory requirements and more about collaboration, working in partnership-to the extent that government ever can-with manufacturing companies. But I think we've found some common ground here with the automakers. We're very proud of their achievements. In some ways, we have more confidence in them than they have in themselves.

In November of this year, a staff proposal was to be considered to allow other extremely low-emission technologies, such as hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, to qualify for some credit toward a manufacturer's

ZEV requirements. For those of you not

familiar with our program, 10 percent of the vehicles offered for sale starting in 2003 will need to be in the zero--emission category. This regulatory approach, we believe, will have the dual effect of encouraging these additional technologies while piquing manufacturers' interest in meeting the ZEV re- quirement that begins in

that 2003 time frame. Can we regulate the future of EVs?

We've felt all along that our regulatory program is critical for their early market success. Also important are the coor- dinated efforts of government andvehi- cle manufacturers and fuel providers to overcome early market barriers to their use. We are encouraged by the fact that you can acquire a zero-emission vehicle today in the marketplace-I think that's a remarkable achievement.

Once ZEVs are mass-produced and marketed, the continued success of EVs will be more the result of market forces than rermlation, and we will be willing I will continue to require manufacturers to s t a d aside and let the market wori at the right time.

That's one of the things we're going to be watching closely: when the time is right to get out of the way and let the

I must say, though, that I have seen market develop on its own. +

to produce ZEVs and will work together with other agencies to ensure that the early market for this new technology is given an opportunity to succeed.

I

43

: EVs are fun to drive, they're fast, NCE ~ ~ E ~ ~ N ~ to find my-

self speaking on behalf of the entire industry-something I didn't do for 35 years- but I'm going to try and broaden my viewpoint this morning. What is the industry attitude to electric vehicles? As with any other new powertrain today, the industry prefers a phased-in approach, starting with low volume, verifying per-' formance and quality, before ramping up to full production.

In the early days of the industry, the early 19oOs, experimentation was the norm as manufacturers searched for the right energy source from among gasoline, natural gas, steam, and electricity. Today, thanks to the excellent performance and reliability of gasoline-powered cars, customer expectations are so high that no manufacturer can risk introducing a less than excellent powertrain.

A typical gasoline-powered vehicle today not only performs well and reliably, it is affordable to purchase and economi- cal to operate. For a given size and weight of a vehicle, efficiency is at historically

high levels and emissions are at historically low levels. Gasoline-powered internal combustion engines (ICEs) are indeed tough competition, and potential buyers will nat- urally compare electric drives with ICEs to see how they stack up.

Eventually, the industry will be able to present EVs to the customer in terms that highlight their positive aspects and not worry needlessly over their supposed short- comings For example, here in the United States, with 40 percent of ourvehicles driving less than 40 miles [60 km] a day, an EV with a range of a hundred miles [ 160 km] is actually quite attractive. It's fun to drive, is economic and quiet in operation, offers the convenience of at-home charging, and requires virtually zero maintenance-no periodic oil changes, mufflers that rust out, burst hoses, and so on.

All major automakers are developing electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], and some manufacturers see the HEV as a transition vehicle before moving to an all-electric. Hybrids com- bine some of the advantages of EVs and

conventional vehicles. They are much cleaner than conventional vehicles andvir- tually eliminate the run-out-of-charge worry becauie there is a gas station on every corner. They do, however, addcom- plexity. An HEV is more complex than an ICE-powered vehicle, and, of course, it doesn't have the maintenance advantage of a pure electric.

Let me take a brief look at manufacturers around the world and what they are doing to give you an idea of where the industry itself is going. In North America, General Motors is the EV leader with the EV t passenger car and the Chevrolet S- i 0 EV pickup. This month [September], the company will begin producing some EVs with advanced nickel-metal hydride batteries. GM has a very active HEV program.

Ford is another leader. It has its Ranger EV pickup in the market and a very active HEV development program. It will be introducing nickel-metal hydride batteries shortly. At Chrysler, EVs have a somewhat lesser priority, but the company has a strong focus on HEVs.

: We Asians have no choice; ESENCE HERE implies that

EVs are a global issue. China has 1 .3 billion population. If it were to follow the example of the United States, with two or three cars per family, where would the oil come from? Already China has changed from self-suffi- ciency in oil to being an oil importer. In 1997 it imported 13 million tons of crude oil, and it is expected to import 50 million tons in the year 2000. Indonesia, where J was born, is still exporting oil, but is expected to become an importer in 5-10 years.

And what about emissions? If every family has two or three conventional cars) that will be an even bigger problem. Really, we Asians have no choice, EVs are a must for us.

Back in 1968, a few American students proved that it i s possible to cross a continent in an EV, today there is an industry ready to produce such vehicles. Now the issue is cost. How can it be brought down?

That, I think, is a global issue: how to restructure the global business environment to create a sustainable global market for electric vehicles. Traditional concepts won't work. Take, for instance,

the energy source. In conventional can, the buyer pays for the energy-storage device-the gas tank, which represents a very minor fraction of the overall cost of an automobile. But in an EV, the energy-storage device is a battery, which may well be the car's most expensive component.

Although, in an abstract sense, batteries are equivalent to gas tanks, they are economically worlds apart. Where

it is appropriate to sell a gas tank as part of a car, for batteries it makes more sense to lease them and to have users pay just for the electricity they con- sume. An electric utility can own the battery, lease it, and run an energy storage business to leverage its generating business, thereby increasing its profits while making EVs more accessible.

That is what I mean by restructuring the business environment. And, as I said, it must be restructured on a global basis. We need to integrate the strengths of East and West to solve our problems.

From an energy aspect, if you want independence, you should have alternative energy sources. Unfortunately, many nations rely heavily on single energy sources.

Worse, the energy efficiency in developing countries tends to be much lower than in the industrialized nations. To generate a US $1000 product in China consumes five times as much energy as it does in the United States. This, of course, contri- butes to global warming. However, developing countries have abundant energy resources in the form of wind

44 IEEE SPECTRUM DECEMBER 1998

and they require virtually no maintenance. In Asia, Toyota is the market pull. Considerable

clear leader in EVs and effort, time, and money has HEVs. It has both the pro- been spent fighting man- duction RAV4 EV and the dates. But we're starting to Prius hybrid. The company see the industry shift to a is committed to the increas- more positive attitude about ing use of electric drive- EVs and HEVs. trains. Competitive forces are

Honda is also high on starting to heat up, and I the list. It has its EV Plus believe they will follow the and its engineers are also minivan model. Back in working on HEVs. Honda 1983, Chrysler alone entered also has a very major, ex- the minivan market. People tremely low-emission inter- said, "What is it? It's a box on nal combustion program. Nissan has a wheels. Who wants it?" Well, you know focus on advanced batteries. what happened. Minivans were a success

In Europe, Peugeot is probably the most for Chrysler, and now in 1998 everyone active in the EV arena, it has built sev- is making them. As EV interest andvolume era1 thousand Peugeot 106 EVs in actual increase, more and more manufacturers are production. Audi this year is offering a going to jump into the market. diesel-powered HEV. VW, Opel, Mer- Motor and control technology for EVs cedes, and BMW all have active EV and are available today. Battery technology and HEV programs. costs are improving rapidly, and advanced

John [Dunlap], I would like to say that nickel-hydride batteries are getting into US. automakers especially don't like man- volume production. Further, advanced bat- dates or sales targets. They much prefer teries are on the horizon.

I have my own ideas about what electric vehicle costs will be, but rather than give you mine, let me quote two industry sources. Peugeot reported late last year that, at a volume of 50 000 vehicles per year, an EV should be comparable in cost with an ICE-powered vehicle.

Also last year Fords Advanced Tech- nology Group announced what it thought EV costs would be around the years 2001-2003. Essentially, their estimate was that, with third-generation advanced batteries and expected higher EV volumes, costs should be similar to costs for conventional gasoline cars. That was indeed very encouraging news.

I'm positive toward EVs, not just because they're pollution-free, but also because they're real cars. They're fun to drive. They're fast. Their operating costs are very low. They're convenient to use, and, of course, they're very quiet. I think EVs will make an excellent addition to the market, providing new business opportunities for established automakers as well as for new companies. +

EVs are a must for us. power, tidal power, and hydropower.

One way to improve energy secu- rity, boost efficiency, and lessen the environmental impact is to switch vehicle propulsion from fossil fuels to electricity. We conducted a little study in Hong Kong that compared gasoline, natural gas, and electric vehicles from an efficiency point of view. We found that, under typical [congested] Hong Kong dnving conditions, a vehicle that required around 3.0 megajoules worth of oil to go t 2 km needed 2.5 MJ worth of natural gas, and only about 2.0 MJ of electricity.

From the environmental point of view, the advantages of electric propd- sion are even more impressive. From data collected by my students over the past 20 years, again in Hong Kong, it is estimated that 80 percent of the air pollution comes from road traffic, In China, surveys indicate, pollution is so bad that the average life expectancy of traffic police in some big cities is seriously affected.

Asia already has the majority of the most polluted cities in the world, and the situation is getting worse. Over the next 25 years, Asia will have 20

megacities, compared with eight for the rest of the world. At present, there are only two megacities in the United States-New York and Los Angeles- and one in Europe-London. Plus there are a few in Latin America.

At least in Asia, EVs are an excellent solution to the energy and pollution problems of transportation. As I indicated earlier, in the rural areas there is no competition. If you can build a low-cost, reliable, simple EV, nobody can compete with you. This is in sharp contrast to the situation in the West.

What about infrastructure? I think the general solution is integration, from the integration of the strengths of different societies around the world to the integration of electric motors and controllers. Referring to the lat- ter, most motor controllers are opti- mized for typical industrial applications, which turn out to have quite different requirements from electric vehicles. Optimizing a controller specifically for propelling a vehicle can extend that vehicle's range by 15-30 percent, we have found.

Building EVs requires the integration of many technologies: materials,

electronics, motor drive, and so on. Therefore, system integration and optimization under clearly defined driving patterns is a prime factor needed to minimize costs and maxi- mize performance. Quality function matrix diagrams can be used for this subsystem optimization.

Thirty years ago, when the rekin- dling of RsiD for EVs began, the main driving force was the energy crisis, and the main question was, "Can EVs do the job?" Today, the commercialization of EVs has commenced, but today's main driving force is the environmental issue, and the big question is, "Can EVs be made affordable?" I predict that 30 years from now, pure EVs will share their market in niche applications-community transportation, for example-hybrid EVs will have a market share for longer ranges, and fuel cell EVs will have begun their commercialization.

To conclude, I would like to emphasize again that we need a global effort. EVs are not a concept of just the American people. It belongs to the world. We need a global effort to make EVs a success. +

RIEZENMAN - EVS: THE ROAD AHEAD 4 5

: The challenge is cost. I UT six years of hybrid experience. When I took over the role last year of being SAE [Society of Automotive Engineers] president, I bought into the vision of SAE, and that's the advancement of mobility to serve humanity. I think this will provide additional incentives for why we need to do things differently.

Today we're sustaining on earth some six billion people. By 2 100 that number is expected to go to 12 billion. Many of us in the room have seen the population double or triple. That's just going to mean more vehicles on the road, more pollution. So we have to do something different as we move into the next century

Where is the world's population located7 Well, India and China presently account for almost two billion people-a third of the world's population. To follow up on Dr.

Chan's point, two to three vehicles per family in China simply can't be done. Try it with gasoline vehicles and we will have a real mess on our hands.

Thirty years ago in the United States, we had something like 200 million people. Today we have 262 million people. The number of registered vehicles and the number of registered drivers have grown much faster, however. We had about a hundred mil-

. , . .

scheme of things, I would like to briefly touch on a brand new program spon- sored by the U.S. Depart- ment of Energy called GATE, or Graduate Auto- motive Technology Educa- tion, where there's direct application of the kind of technology we're talking about-hybrid-vehicle controls, lightweight materials, fuel cells, high- power energy storage and electronics.

There will be new grad- lion vehicles 30 years ago. Now we're around 200 million vehicles.

Now what are the universities doing? Maybe a little bit out of the traditional

uate courses and fellow- ships developed at 10 universities. Over 20 universities submitted proposals, and I think this is a dynamic and exciting pro-

: We remain concerned about the E ~~~~ A LITTLE

about Toyota's RAV4 EV This [pure electric] vehicle has been available for sales or lease to fleet operators in the United States since November t 997. Interestingly enough, nobody has bought it. They were all leased. We have about 400 orders at this point in time. Through July 3 1 st, we had delivered 173 vehicles in California and 270 nationally.

Our vehicle has 1 3 1 miles [2 11 km] combined, cityhighway range-the long- est range for any certified vehicle until Ghl's EV1 gets certifiedwith nickel-metal hydride batteries. Our customers, prin- cipally utilities and fleet users, tell us they find the utility of our vehicle to be the best in its class. It will hold three passengers in the back seat if they are good friends, for a total of five, but really four passengers on an ordinary basis.

Nonetheless, we do remain somewhat concerned about the marketability of EVs. There are two major issues that we somehow have to address. First is the customer perception of required range. Bob [Stem- pel] mentioned that a significant portion of the population travels less than 40 miles [60 km] a day, yet it's going to be a significant marketing challenge and educational process to convince customers that they don't need 300-plus mileage [450 km].

I know I was a hard sell, but I have driven our vehicle for two two-month intervals, and I find its performance to

be totally satisfactory for my normal drive. It couldn't be my only vehicle, but it could be my daily drive vehicle without difficulty. The problem is that changing the perception of the public is always difficult. Changing the perception when they really need the driving experience makes it an even bigger challenge.

The second issue, however, is a little more sticky. Using CAM's [the California Air Resources Board's] most recent bi- annual review of battery technology or EV technology, the forecast OEM [orig- inal-equipment manufacturer] cost for a 30-kwh battery pack in the 2003 time frame ranges from $7500 to something maybe approaching $10 500. Those are OEM costs, not consumer costs. We're going to have to figure out something to do about that, and at least on my radar scope I don't see a solution to that particular concern in that time frame.

And just as a reminder, although EVs are extraordinarily clean, they're not going to do anything to improve air quality in Southern California unless they can be sold in significant volume.

However, Toyota believes that there i s an electric drive system available in the near term that facilitates some future vision. We are currently marketing Prius, featuring a hybrid drive system in the Japanese market. We have announced plans to introduce the technology in the United States and in some other markets in 2000.

We refer to the powertrain in Prius as the Toyota hybrid system. It features elements of the traditional parallel and series configuration, although using the strict definition of an HEY [hybrid electric vehicle] it's a parallel hybrid. The engine power i s split using a planetary gear set to deliver a portion of the engine output to a generator for series-type operation, with the majority of the power sent directly to the final drive.

A high-powered nickel-metal hydride battery is used to provide boost acceleration and to store regenerative brak- ing energy for subsequent acceleration use. Key features of the Toyota hybrid system include a high-efficiency i .5-liter engine with modified combustion cycle, electronically variable transmission ratios, and the ability to stop the vehicle without having to clutch any element of the system. We accomplished this by using an ac permanent magnet motor and a separate generator connected to the planetary gear set.

Major advantages of this hybrid system include up to double the fuel efficiency in congested city driving, typified by the Japanese 10-15 mode test. The same Japan market vehicle yields a 20-60 percent fuel economy improvement when run on U S . test cycles.

We also have significant reductions in emissions: CO, reduced by up to half in city driving and by percentages corre-

IEEE SPECTRUM DECEMBER 19R8 46

gram to develop the new engineers to engineer the new hybrids and EVs in the future.

In terms of SAE activity, the society has over 76 000 members. We've been in business since 1905. We have 12 000 student members at over 300 clubs and branches throughout the world. Looking back through our standards handbook, I found that our first electrical standards go back to 19 14, covering batteries and fuses. And, in fact, the electric battery standard has been revised 12 times since then.

And reviewing other activities that are under way at SAE, we have a task force standards group involving electric vehicle safety, battery systems, charging systems, and charging system controls. SAE is working together with other organizations to har- monize the standards and to develop new standards.

SAE's position on EVs is neutral. We have no corporate members. The members are individuals. They speak for themselves, but are dedicated to making sure we provide

the best automotive technology available. I was in Detroit in June for a hybrid

competition, where I took a picture of one of our earlier EVs-from 1896, to be exact. One horsepower [750 W], 40 V. I don't know if its lights were powered by electricity. Probably not. Anyway, we've done it before and we certainly can do it again. This is obvious to those who are working in this area, but from my own personal perspective, the technology has got to work right the first time.

The example I would like to point to is Oldsmobile's diesel experience back in the late '70s and '80s. That really soured the Americans on diesel. However, in Europe the diesel is extremely well-liked for a couple of reasons, taxes for one. But the main reason is that with the latest generation of European diesels, you can't tell that you're not driving a conventional [gasoline] car.

Range, of course, is what gives everybody anxiety. Even an engineer driving an EV for the first time asks, "How far can

I go?" [and] "Where am I going to get my next charge?" And probably the one thing that is the most difficult to change, from my perspective of the consumer, is that things are not going to change much until our gas prices go up. They're the lowest in our history, adjusted for inflation, 99 cents a gallon. I brought a gallon of bottled water recently, it.cost me $1 3 9 . Gasoline prices are going to have to change if we're going to make a change in the consumer buy- in.

My own area of concentration for the last six years has been hybrid electric vehicles. Those currently for sale and on the drawing board are generally two to three times better in fuel economy than conventional vehicles. They have very low emissions because of the hybrid technology. They do overcome some of the fears that the public may have with EVs- mainly, running out of charge.

The challenge, as several of my colleagues have pointed out, is cost. +

marketability of [pure] EVs.

sponding to the efficiency improvement in other drive styles.

Criteria [regulated] emissions of the Japanese market vehicle, which has a rather modest catalyst system on it, are at one- tenth of the Japanese standard, and they are almost down to current California ultralow emissions vehicle (ULEV) requirements. The technology requires no additional infrastructure. You fuel it at your corner gas station somewhat less frequently than you fuel a conventional vehicle.

In addition, the system is available at a reasonable cost. The system cost premium

is estimated to be less than $2000 at volume production, and we're not yet to volume production. But that is the long-term estimate of system premium cost.

As an added benefit, particularly ger- mane to the discussion here today, this technology allows the economies of scale and production cost reduction learning that are necessary to benefit all future electric drive systems. Toyota is now I believe the worlds largest manufacturer of IGBTs [insulated-gate bipolar transistors].

Me went into production ourselves of IGBTs specifically for the hybrid application, We're handling the same voltage and comparable currents in this application as we handled in the battery EV. Yet, we could not find sufficient source and volume at costs we were willing to pay and, thus, have gone into production ourselves of this technology.

This has the spin-down benefit that those devices now will be reduced in cost, at least initially for our electric vehicle. Perhaps we'll consider selling them as well, but we will continue to "learn" down the cost of the motor, the controller, and at least a variety of batteries, not necessarily the prime propulsion battery, but we will learn down those costs.

Recently, Toyota's president indicated that in the year 2000 Prius will be intro- duced in North America and Europe. He has announced the availability of 20 000 units in 2000 for those new markets.

Development has begun for the U.S. market with an emissions target of the pro- posed California Sulev, or super ultralow emissions vehicle.

In addition, he also announced in- creased fuel-economy targets for the North American market vehicle on North American drive cycles. It's unlikely the vehicle will get the 66 mi/gal [3.6 liters per 100 km] it gets in the 10-15 mode Japanese certification test, but for U.S. combined testing, it does get 60 miigal [3.9 U100 km]. I believe you will agree with those who have had the opportunity to drive the vehicle that it is a real vehicle in every sense of the word, fully developed and ready to go.

We've sold approximately 10 000 units in the Japanese market. We're currently building them at a rate of 2000 per month, and units for the rest of the year are sold out. There will ultimately have to be a production volume increase in 2000 because the markets outside Japan are going to get almost as many units as are currently being produced.

U.S. sales organizations, as well as the Europeans and Canadians, are working very hard right now to develop a marketing plan for the vehicles and to see which organization gets the majority of the 20 000 units. The United States sales force is confident that it is going to get two-thirds of the 2000 units. We'll see how that shakes out. +

47 RIEZENMAN - EVS T H E R O A D AHEAD

: It's going to take a long time for EVs F Nai' is the leader in alternative fuel vehicles, in the United States anyway. We have over 90 percent of the alternate fuel vehicles that are sold in this country as a result of over 35 years of development and testing. I might add that most of that was without regulatory requirements.

Ford sees electric drive vehicles playing a major role in the future of personal transportation. Professor Chan outlined the huge market opportunities in developing countries, and Ford intends to par- ticipate in those markets, but there's going to have t o be different propulsion and fuel technologies

We see batteries, hybrid, and fuel cell technologies co-existing in the marketplace and serving different customer needs. I don't think all the manufacturers see it that way. That's how we see it. In the case of zero tailpipe emissions (ZEVs), there are only

two technologes that we know of-the battery-powered electric and the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. There's a range issue with ZEVs, which the fuel cell and the hybrid may address, but there's a lot of people, as Dave [Hermance] said, who don't need that kind of range every day. So we're pursuing all these electric drive technologies.

As you know, in 1993 we launched the Ecostar demon- stration fleet. At that time, it had an advanced battery and provided over a hundred miles [ 160 km] of driving range. We had over a hundred test vehicles and accumulated over a million miles [ 1600 megameters] of real- world driving experience.

I might add that last weekend we did some market research in California, and it was interesting. We had two groups,

one that had driven Ecostars for two weeks and another group that was also interested in EVs but had never driven one for any length of time.

They both drove a Ranger around the block. We brought them back in and talked to them, and it was amazing to see the different perception of how the EV could meet their needs between the people who actually experienced the EV versus those who

didn't. The people who had experienced an EV were much less concerned about per- ceived driving range limitations and the length of recharging time than those who didn't have much EV experience. What that means to us is it's going to take quite a long time to penetrate the electric vehicle market because people are going to have to drive it and experience it and become con

: EVs won't be a success if we e infrastructure issues properly.

I I I

you've heard from a number of speakers this morning, the long- awaited commercial introduction of the electric vehicle is currently under way here in Southern California. Several other locations across the country have also begun their market launch.

The introduction of this all- new technology to the driving public has not been a simple task. It's involved a broad coali- tion of entities, which includes a diverse group of individuals, businesses, and government organizations that have a vested interest in its success.

We all know that the potential of the electric vehicle is tremendous. We have found that there's a great deal of enthusi- asm for this new technology. The City of Los Angeles believes that a crucial part of increasing the marketability of the electric vehicle is to create an EV-friendly community or an EV-ready community

Utilities and municipalities are certainly key players in this effort. In order for our community to attract and embrace EVs

as a form of transportation for the 21st century, electric utilities and local governments must foster those programs necessary to ensure vehicle sales and en- courage investment and EV infrastructure systems.

The City of Los Angeles is implementing a number of these activities to help the Los Angeles region become EV- ready. We're in the process of implementing what we believe is the largest, most compre- hensive EV program initiated by a municipality, and it's called Quick Charge L.A.

The Los Angeles Depart- ment of Water and Power (LADWP) is spearheading an effort with the involvement of 39 private companies and public agencies to establish a network of 184 EV charging stations throughout the city. Major locations include large office buildings, shopping centers, hospitals, parking garages, event centers, employment centers, universities, the Los Angeles International Airport [LAX] , and the L.A. Zoo, to mention just a few.

We're about 80 percent com-

plete on this effort and we feel that we should finish in the next couple of months.

Use of the public charging stations is free to the public. It's a pretty good deal. And in fact, for example, at LAX you even get free parking, and it's right there in Terminal 1, so it's quite a savings if you've ever had to pay for parking in that area.

Quick Charge L.A. has been implemented with some finan- cial assistance from the Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee, which is connected to the local Air Quality Management District here in Southern California.

We're installing both conductive and inductive charging facilities at these public locations. Presently there i s no clear con- sensus on which of the two charging methods will prevail, or if both will co-exist in the long term. It is, however, clear that in the near term both systems will be utilized. So we're going to let the marketplace determine which of the charging technologies makes the most sense.

The interest level in public charging has been very high.

We frequently receive calls from customers inquiring about charging locations, and sug- gesting new locations. We have found businesses are very interested in installing chargen. They see the PR value. They. see themselves being on the cutting edge and being environmen- tally friendly.

Also there's the value-added service that they can offer employees and customers. Two weeks ago we did a big kickoff with Kaiser Permanente. They're installing a charging facility for their medical facilities here in the Los Angeles area. One of their employees is driving an EV Plus [from Honda].

48 IEEE SPECTRUM DECEMBER 1998

to penetrate the vinced that it will work for them.

Building on the Ecostar fleet, we de- signed and tested the Ranger. We input the results we got from that fleet testing, an'd focused on the propulsion technology- the battery, the drive train, and so on. We chose the Ranger because it had a lot of features that fleets are interested in.

We think fleets are a part of the pro- gression toward successful commercialization of EVs. After the Ecostar research pro- ject, this was our next step in the four-phase plan to commercialize EVs. Fleets have volume purchasing power. They have multi- ple-use vehicles. They have very predictable routes usually, and they have centralized service and charging capabilities.

As far as producing the vehicles, we don't have much of a problem. We had deter- mined from the outset that this was going to be a fairly low-volume situation. We built

market. the incomplete electric vehicle at a regular production plant located, appropriately, in Edison, N.J. Then we finished the vehicle at our final assembly in Detroit. We have a trained nationwide network of service technicians at both our dealerships and our fleet customers.

The next challenge is to expand production by appealing to the retail market. We need to provide an affordable product that meets customers' needs. We've been able to lower the cost of the Ranger EV somewhat, but that's not enough. We know in the long run that the costs have to come down significantly in order to appeal to the general public. In fact, we think the No. 1 production problem is cost. We don't think range is a big issue. We think we can handle range. An EV won't be the right vehicle for 100 percent of the population, but I would point out that no vehicle is the right

vehicle for 100 percent of the population. The suppliers of EV components and

systems will play a key role in dnving down these costs, and Bob Stempel and I have had lots of discussions about this. He's representing the supplier industry and I rep- resent the manufacturer, at least these days.

One of their major challenges and our challenge will be to achieve this cost production in the face of highly uncertain volume. Part of the problem on volume, by the way, is the perception that seems to be coming across now, that hybrids and fuel cells are the next wave and EVs are obso- lete, so why even bother to buy an EV?

We're finding resistance in the marketplace today. People aren't sure that they want to invest in an EV. So the fact that there's a technology proliferation is making it a little confusing for the typical customer. In summary, EVs will be successfully commercialized when we can offer retail customers an affordable vehicle that meets their needs. +

Although the deployment of chargers is the biggest infrastructure activity, there are several other elements we believe to be important to integrate electric vehicles into different fleet applications in order to demonstrate the technology and to become a role model, really, for others. The City of Los Angeles has deployed over 60 electric vehicles to the city departments, which include Water and Power obviously, the airports, general services, recreation, and parks. Transportation is using it in their parking enforcement and the Harbor Department is also using electric vehicles.

We have demonstrated electric vehicles, EVis, S-ios, Chrysler Epics, the Ford Ranger, the Toyota RAV4 and the Honda EV Plus. Our demonstra- tion program has allowed us to really become familiar with the operation and major characteristics of these electrical vehicles. We can expand the use of these technologies in different areas.

Another key in the infrastructure that we're involved in is really assist- ing residential customers with installation of chargers at their homes. The City's Department of Buildings and Safety and DWP have worked together to streamline the permitting, installation, and inspection process of electric vehicle charging stations at homes.

Let's not forget fleet mechanic training and emergency response training. These are two critical areas that we've also been addressing. DWP has a new phone system to handle EV customer requests. We have a specialized rate

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RIEZENMAN ~ EVS THE ROAD AHEAD

brochure that explains different rate options to customers and we have an EV discount charging rate. It's a discount of 2.5-cents-per-kilowatt [hour] from the standard time-of-use rate for customers, and it equates to about 4.0-4.5 cents per kilowatthour during off-peak hours. It's really a bargain to charge an EVi. For example, during off-peak hours, it costs about 68 cents for a full charge. So we think there's some pretty good cost savings there.

Another important component for EV readiness is public information and awareness. We've implemented a number of marketing and public awareness activities to really strengthen EV infrastructure and vehicle deployment. Some of these include EV ride and drives, publications, business community media outreach, EV signage for charging stations, the toll-free information phone line, and EV presenta- tions to schools-that's one that I really enjoy, going out to grade schools to present electric vehicles. The students get very excited about the technology. Actually, it's pretty rewarding.

In conclusion, I would like to say that while the definition of EV-friendly or EV-ready may be stated simply, actually facilitating market entry and EV usage is quite complex and takes some time. Viable electric vehicles are here today. They're a reality. However, these vehicles and future electric vehicles will not be successful in the consumer market if we don't take the time to address infrastructure issues properly. +

ENGINEERING

THE EV FUTURE:

A Q&A VICTOR WOUK: I have a question. In New

York City, where I live, many people park their cars on the street. If those cars were EVs, how could they be charged? Come on, Scott.

SCOTT BRIASCO: That's a tough one. I sup- pose there are ways of putting public charging on the street. That is something that we haven't really addressed at this point. Most of the public charging, or all of the public charging, [has] been in parking structures or parking lots. You could do a pedestal-type charger on the street, and there are some building mechanisms that are being developed right now that might make sense. There are debit cards and other ways to capture the cost of the electricity.

BOB STEMPEL: Victor, let me just add that we have that situation in very crowded areas, such as Taiwan, and it's not so much for cars but for motor scooters. At night when you're in those cities, the scooters are linedup along the sidewalk, and one of the things they're looking at in Taiwan is a unit that sits by the curb that you can plug into, and which [will charge the vehicle, putting the cost onto your] charge card.

Needless to say, one of the concerns they have, as they start to look at this, are concerns that some people may decide to plug in their radios and cof- fee pots and do other things. But it is being looked at. And, of course, in any crowded city, that's going to be a key issue.

MURRAY SLOVICK: Dave Hermance, in his

49

presentation, mentioned spin-down benefits. I wonder if other people on the panel could discuss that: what benefits of the research they've done in electric vehicles might be applicable to just automotive production or other unrelated products in general.

STEMPEL: Let me take a crack at that. I think some of the areas we've seen are outside of the electric vehicle. For example, the development of tires with very low rolling resistance and friction that still maintain a reasonable ride. As you saw in one of Dr. Holloway's charts and Professor Chan's charts, rolling resistance and friction are key. Both Goodyear and Michelin have developed some tires out of this effort, which will improve efficiency of gasoline- powered vehicles.

Then there's the whole issue of aerody- namics; most of these vehicles are really clean, have good air flow.

Also cooling systems. Instead of a very energy intensive compressor driven by the engine, we're starting to see development of pretty good heat pumps and other devices that are low-energy devices.

JOHN DUNLAP: I also might add that composite materials with low weight and high strength are also being developed. In California, we're very interested in having component manufacturers make vehicles in our state. We've been paying attention to some of these developments that Mr. Stempel ran through.

BRUCE KOPF: Victor, I have one more example. The technology that's been evolved with traction invertor modules i s being applied by certain companies to portable power generation systems and is extremely efficient. That's not an automotive application, but itS an important development that was spurred by the electric vehicle technology You'll see more and more of those portable systems in the next few years.

C.C. CHAN: Yes. [There will be] many spinoff benefits from the EV, because the EV is not just a car, it will create a new industry, create high technology. For instance, power electronics, as I mentioned, is a key. The EV environment is so tough that standard ICBTs [insulated-gate bipolar transistors] cannot survive. When advanced devices are developed, they will be useful not only for EVs but for defense-for very advanced Navy applications and aircraft.

DAVE HOLLOWAY: One other thought from what Dr. Chan said. The military has a demand for a lot of on-board electronic, silent watch activities. So while we haven't talked about military hybrid programs, they're a big player in developing where we're going in this area.

WOUK: Anybody from the audience? ROBERT RASSEN: My name is Robert

Rassen, president of Cal Tech's EV club, and I wanted to ask Scott this question. Most of

the EVs on the road today run on standard 1 15-V outlets, and I'm wondering if the charging systems that have been installed recently allow people to charge with this kind of old fashioned plug, and if they don't, what the rationale was.

BRIASCO: That's a tough one. We wres- tled with that for a long time. In the early years, before the major car companies were producing vehicles, we were trying to get some infrastmcture out there. We did put in 110- and 220-V outlets. In fact, in our general office building headquarters, we were probably the first public charging station in the country--the first public electric vehicle charging station.

With the major car companies bring- ing product to market, we struggled with going out to these other public locations [and deciding] what type of charging stations to put out there. We had to consider not only conductive coupling systems; but inductive as well. So we had to focus on the kind of standard, i f you will, that Honda and Ford are using. [See "EV Watch," p. 16.1

KOPF: One other point is that we had 120-V capability on the Ecostar and did quite a bit of research on it. We feel with the driving range people want, coupled with the fact that the best time for charging EVs is overnight, and the 4: 1 time ratio, 240-v charging will be the norm.

So we think with overnight charging, the range determines how much energy you need to put on board, and we just design the vehicle so you can do that within an 8-hour overnight time period.

BRIASCO: Another issue with having a standard outlet, if you will, at public locations: other [non-EV] folks were using the outlets. RV [recreational vehicle] users were pulling in to public lots and basically plug- ging their RVs in. So it started to become an issue. Obviously, they become very smart and they could also buy the Avcon con- nector anduse the charging station. So we were trying to get away from that. And then the safety issue was another concern.

PAUL MACREADY: Question for John Dunlap. If you had perfect gasoline-burning cars or hybrids that produce zero pollution but still bum gasoline, would there still be so much pollution associated with getting the gasoline into use that even those cars would not be good enough? In other words, i s even perfect not good enough if you're using gasoline? And therefore must one go to a basic EV-and not even a hybrid?

DUNLAP: It probably would not be good enough primarily because of how many times gasoline is handled. As you well know, it's removed from the ground. It's transported. It's formulated, refined, put in trucks, carted somewhere, put into tanks, and ultimately pumped to the vehicles. There are always some imperfections in the process. Even vapor recovery systems and

the like don't catch all the vapors, so it will undoubtedly not be good enough to get where we need to go

Also, for example, you might find this interesting We're right now looking very closely at how small (in some cases, hand held) lawn and garden equipment is used, how it's fueled Also motorcycles andjet skis and the like, there's a lot of spillage that o c m And in Califomia, we're very concerned about gasoline additives like MTBs and what they mean to ground water and soil

So even with these very fine com pletely engineered approaches to han dling gasoline or other liquid fuels, we still have mistakes and problems, much of which are inadvertent

MACREADY It sounds as though you're saying for California, at least Southern California, and what Dr Chan is saying for parts of the world in Southeast Asia, that we have to go to the basic electric vehicles There's little question on hybrid, and I guess if somebody is using compressed natural gas, it's a slightly different situation Then with all the problems with gasoline, they can practically give it away

DUNLAP I appreciate that point One of the panelists made the comment about fuel prices That's been a positive thing for consumers but a difficulty as far as advanced transportation relative to competition in the marketplace The other thing is the fact that with internal combustion vehicles, you have deterioration in their efficiency as they age I'm not here to drop any bombshells and say we need to not have internal combus tion vehicles, but over time we need to evolve and change the fleet and ultimately go to zero emission or very close to zero emission vehicles

WOUK When you say "change the fleet," does that include the diesel trucks and buses?

DUNLAP Yes And we identified that this last week, which has some regulatory implications over time So we're attacking that issue as well-again in a reasoned, predictable fashion, not looking to force any precipitous action At times you have to move cautiously and try to gain consen sus if you can

MACREADY 1 think it's more productive to say it like it IS, even if political reality demands something else, so everybody at least knows what the reality is

Are there other incentives, [like] some tax deductions one can give to get the basic battery powered electric vehicle more widely used in the long run? Can they go in the diamond [high occupancy vehicle (HOV)] lane with only one passenger? Can you get insurance by the gallon in regu lar cars so each car in the state is insured, and the electric ones get free or preferred parking spaces or things like that-actual things that are more than dollars, because

5 0 IEEE SPECTRUM DECEMBER 1998

people don't care about fuel costs. Are there incentives that will make everybody swarm to use these things?

DUNLAP: You bring up a very key point. I have personally been involved in working and representing my governor as we look at public incentives that we can offer, alternative fuels, zero emission for powered transportation, and I must tell you in all can- dor it's been very hotly debated in Sacra- mento [the California state capital].

The oil industry and others have com- plained about an unlevel playing field, saying that somehow the public incentives being offered to users of these vehicles are inap- propriate, which makes for a hot debate. We had a modest piece of legislation this year that emerged. I think it is on the governor's desk now. It's going to provide some modest incentives for users of alternative fuels, I think convenience and time issues. But they're very difficult to move.

Case in point: two years ago there was a legislative proposal in Cali- fornia regarding ZEVs, and several powerful members of the legislature got in the way of that legislation, which was largely without opposi- tion, because they wanted to do a restructuring of the HOV lanes in California with the toll roads. [They got into] demand-pricing and that kind of thing, and so the legislation never emerged.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: It seems a big problem with EVs is how long it takes to charge a vehicle. I" wondering i f you thought of having interchangeable batteries. With them, to fuel up your vehicle, you would DUII into a station and thev

but move and charge. Move and charge means you bury the power lines under the road and use inductive measures to charge the battery. And all these charge facilities can be integrated with the navigation systems.

STEMPEL: Let me just add that if you go to LAX [Los Angeles International Airport] and you go on the electric bus, you'll see some doors on the side. When they change shifts, what they do is have a forklift go in, remove a battery pack, put a fresh one in, and put the old one on charge.

When you look at most of the electric vehicles and the new designs and you consider all the regulations the car has to meet- such as crash-worthiness, safety, impact, rollovers, and so on-most of the manufacturers have put the batteries in so that the car has good balance, generally near the cen- ter of the car, and they're petty well tucked in there, and the installation and removal of

about 40 seconds, and cou!d be automated in a rather simple way.

It means that if you have that capability around, you can use cheaper batteries as opposed to the more expensive, and you may find that two or three sets are cheaper, and there are all these trade-offs. You always back up, asking, "All this complexity to save a dime's worth of gasoline?" That's the fundamental problem.

But battery switching for a lot of vehicles is not bad-it deserves serious attention for buses, particularly local buses.

KOPF: The German post office is working with zinc-air batteries and doing a pretty in-depth evaluation of swapping batteries. They basically take the battery out and remanufacture the battery and then replace it. So if somebody is interested in how that works, that's where that's going on.

W O W : We're coming close to the end.

would just issue you a standard type of battery that's appropriate for your vehicle. They would put it in and take the old one out. There's probably going to be some differ- ence between the batteries in the amount of charge they have, so you would need some metering to determine how much you actually use [which would determine how much you would pay].

WOUK: Who is brave enough to answer that one?

CHAN: There are many ways to charge the battery. Home charging with slow charge, public charging with quick charge, solar charging, etc. Of course, home charging is best from the utility's point of view because of its low current.

We did a big study for the Hong Kong utility, a feasibility study on using electric minivans to replace gas minivans. With battery swapping, the problem is that for one minivan, we must have three batteries. Then the issue becomes economic. Then to level the battery, we must restructure the business sector.

And then not only the park and charge,

AC Propulsion Inc., San Dimas, Calif., both electrified the Volkswagen Golf [foreground] and built the tZero sports car [background]. The cars are propelled by the same 150-kW drivetrain, which can accelerate the lighter Cero from zero to 60 milh (97 kmlh) in less than 5 seconds.

the battery becomes very complex. The other thing is it's not just one bat-

tery. It's really a collection of several battery modules. So for a lot of reasons we're trying to keep the battery with the vehicle and that's why there's so much effort being put into extending the life of the battery to match the life of the vehicle, design- ing batteries that don't have to be replaced. We'd just as soon not have you undoing connections and so on, but leaving it alone. But for the industrial user, like the buses on fixed routes, which are used with a control set of employees, or Federal Express trucks, removing and installing fresh batteries is a very logical way to go.

MACREADY: Good question, and there are a variety of answers if one really focuses on how can we make it work, how can we make it not work. You find a lot of ways. One way I will show this afternoon is that we did an experiment with Delco, and a Geo Metro went 1320 miles 12120 km] in 24 hours at 55 miles an hour [90 km/h] with battery switching, which we did about every 50 minutes or so. Changing batteries took

Y

so we'll have one more question. MICHAEL RIEZENMAN: It

seems to me a fundamental economic problem is that in order for me to breathe cleaner air, you have to buy an electric vehicle. I wonder, therefore, whether the general market model is appropriate, when you talk about something where the per- son laying out the money isn't necessarily the beneficiary.

DUNLAP: I think that one is for me, since I'm the only regulator here. O n a personal note, I have never been entirely comfortable [in the role] that we as regulators play in the marketplace, and I want to acknowledge that. Our mandated approach is aimed at providing choices to the consumer. We have

not required anyone to purchase an EV. We do think it's laudable for us to force some of the best, most creative people to put their shoulder to the wheel and push advanced transportation technology out into the marketplace. We think that's good. We think that's positive. We think that's appropriate.

The reason we do is that they've been making products for consumers that meet a very necessary need-transportation- which has a profound negative environmental impact.

But at the same time, while acknowl- edging the flaws and the concerns, I am also proud of the work that we have fostered through regulation. I hope my colleagues would agree that despite the downside of some of these requirements, there has been an upside, which is that we've pushed and challenged people to do the best they could in protecting the environment while building these products and making the profits and all of those things. So we apologize for impacting, but we'll offer none relative to the goal, and what's been accomplished as a result of this push. +

RIEZENMAN ~ EVS THE ROAD AHEAD 51

Documents

EVs: The Road Ahead