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EXPONENTIAL DISRUPTION
@salimismail// Founder & Chairman ExO Works, Fastrack Institute
// General Partner Rokk3r Fuel ExO (Venture Capital)
// Founding Executive Director Singularity University
// Board member X Prize Foundation
// Co-Founder Angstro, Confabb, PubSub
// Vice President Yahoo
Singularity University was founded in Sept 2008 by Drs. Ray Kurzweil & Peter Diamandis
X Prize BoardofTrustees&Benefactors
LARRYPAGE,CEO,Google
ELONMUSKCEO,Tesla&
SpaceX
RAYKURZWEILInventor&Futurist
Dr.ANOUSHEHANSARI
Astronaut&CEO
DR.CRAIGVENTER,
GeneticPioneer
RATANTATAChairmanofTataGroup
JIMGIANOPULOSChairman/CEO,
FOX
JAMESCAMERON
Filmmakerandexplorer
JimGianopulos
WENDYSCHMIDT
SchmidtFamilyFndtn
WendySchmidt
DEANKAMEN,CEO,DEKAResearch
AcceleratingTechnologies
AlRoboticsBiotechNanotechMedicineNeuroscienceEnergyComputing
!5
Chaos/ Amazement
You are here
Disappointment
Deception of linear vs exponential
DigitizeDisruptDemonetizeDemocratize
Information Layers
New Breakthroughs
Internet of Things 50B devices by 2020
Google Confidential and Proprietary
M2M communication will be > 50%
of data traffic by 2030
1 trillion connected devices
using low bandwidth
Decoding human intonation *18 years of research
Over 60,000 subjects world-wide
4 active researches
4 approved US patents (and two more on the way…)
Major awards
Dr. Yoram LevanonDecision Making, Physics
Dr. Lan LossosNeuropsychology
My mood/attitudeExpFin
DigitizeDisruptDemonetizeDemocratize
Information Layers
New Breakthroughs
Why information » exponential// marginal cost >> zero// domain explodes// problem space shifts
>scarcity to abundance
AcceleratingTechnologies
AlRoboticsBiotechNanotechMedicineNeuroscienceEnergyComputing
!14
Costof Light
Moore’s Law
Reading / Sequencing DNA
CRISPR / CAS9
19
Breeding
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
DroneCapacity
Pounds
10-15x increase in capacity of roads
real estate values
Uber or drones = delivery vehicles
proximity less relevant
photo: Paul Saffo
Proximity Shift
5 yrs - ICEs uneconomical
8 yrs - Xportation as a svc
10 yrs - hyperloop & drones for commercial
15 yrs - … photo: Paul Saffo
Timing
Ownership: 0.65
Taxi 2.50
Uber 2.00
Autonomous car 0.20 photo: Paul Saffo
Cost of Driving ($/km)
driven by economics
Doubling annually
EVs Sold in China
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%EVCarsSoldinChina
Solar
Relative cost of solar…1970-2013 1970-2020
Petroleum 5355x 16065x
Nuclear 1540x 4620x
Natural Gas 2275x 6825x
Coal 900x 2700xSource: Tony Seba
2016 == U.S. Grid
Cost of SolarModules
Solar Impact
Breakthroughs in Storage
Home or Utility
Road TripSolar + sensors + robotics + mobile + batteries
34 hrs, 11 stops, ~35% self driving
Tesla Trips
Jul 2016 Dec 2017
Total Time 36 hrs 29 hrs
Driving time 23 hrs 21 hrs
Num Stops 11 9
% Self Driving 35% 80%
Jul 2016 Dec 2017
DigitizeDisruptDemonetizeDemocratize
New Breakthroughs
Information Layers
34
Recent News
LIFELocal & linear
LIFEExponential & global
Society is not ready..
INSTITUTIONAL DISRUPTION
• Marriage• Democracy• Capitalism• Education• Religions
WHOWorldBank
Voting System
Criminal Justice
Stock Markets
Monetary System
Healthcare
Amygdyla & Technology
Douglas Adams
1. Anything that is in the world when you’re born is normal and ordinary and is just a natural part of the way the world works.
2. Anything that’s invented between when you’re fifteen and thirty-five is new and exciting and revolutionary and you can probably get a career in it.
3. Anything invented after you’re thirty-five is against the natural order of things.
Population Living in Extreme Poverty
$1.90/day in 2011 ppp
1820: 94%2017: 9.4%
Inco
me
per P
erso
n of
the
Wor
ld
Life Expectancy of the World
Liechtenstein
Antigua&Barbuda
Dominica
Palau
NauruTuvalu
Seychelles
St. Kitts& Nevis
AndorraSan Marino
Monaco
Andorra
St.LuciaPanama
Sao Tomeand Principe
Tonga
Samoa
Grenada
Brunei
Comoros
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Luxembourg
Namibia
Swaziland
Timor-Leste
Micronesia
Trinidad and Tobago
Albania
Bhutan
Kiribati
Kosovo
Cyprus
Maldives
Slovenia
Suriname
Belize
Mauritius
Bahamas
Malta
Vanuatu
Montenegro
Estonia
Gambia
Guinea-BissauLesotho
Botswana
Mongolia
Oman
Qatar
Iceland
Barbados
BahrainCapeVerde
Latvia
SolomonIslands
Macedonia
Fiji
Guyana
Jamaica
St.Vincentand G.
Armenia
Lithuania
Uruguay
Mauritania
Moldova
Kuwait
Congo, Rep.Liberia
Bosnia and H. Croatia
Lebanon
Israel
Costa Rica
Puerto Rico
New Zealand
Georgia
Central African Rep.
SwedenSingapore
Norway
Ireland
Finland
Austria
Turkmenistan
Slovak Rep.
Kyrgyzstan
Eritrea
DenmarkTaiwan
Papua New Guinea
Hong Kong
United Arab Emirates
South Sudan
Switzerland
Hungary
BelarusAzerbaijan
Dom.R.
Bulgaria
Serbia
Burundi
LibyaNicaragua
Palestine
Sierra Leone
Laos
Benin
Guinea
Somalia
Tajikistan
Togo
El Salvador
Honduras ParaguayJordan
Poland
Bolivia
Haiti
Czech Rep.
Portugal
Tunisia
Rwanda
GreeceBelgiumCuba
Chad
Senegal
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Cambodia
Ecuador
Guatemala
BurkinaFaso
MalawiNiger
Mali
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Chile
Romania
Cameroon
Sri Lanka
Cote d'Ivoire
Angola
Madagascar
Syria
Australia
Mozambique
Yemen
North Korea
Afghanistan
Ghana
Nepal
Sudan
SaudiArabia
PeruVenezuela
Malaysia
Morocco
Uzbekistan
Italy
Spain
UK Germany
Canada
France
South Korea
Philippines
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Egypt
IranTurkey
Dem. Rep. Congo
Thailand
South Africa
Myanmar
Colombia
Ukraine
Tanzania
Kenya
Argentina
Algeria
Iraq
Uganda
ChinaBangladesh
Indonesia
Pakistan
USA
Russia
Brazil
Nigeria
Japan
Mexico
India
2011 data for all 193 UN Members and for Hong Kong, Kosovo, Palestine, Puerto Rico and Taiwan.
Documentation andpdf version for print at:
3 orless
10100 1000
millions
Colour by region
Size by population
If you want to see more data visit:
www.gapminder.org
Free to copy, share and remix, but attribute to
Gapminder Foundation.
Version 11 September 2012
map
layo
ut b
y Pao
lo Fa
uson
e
gapminder.org/downloads/world-pdf
GAPMINDER WORLD 2012Mapping the Wealth and Health of Nations
Healthy
Poor Rich
Sick
50
500 1 000 2 000 20 0005 000 10 000 50 000
60
70
80
55
65
75
income per person in US Dollars (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation adjusted, log scale)
life
exp
ecta
ncy
in ye
ars
Extraordinary Century of Progress
Human life-expectancy more than doubledInfant mortality reduced by 90%Maternal mortality reduced by 99%Cost of electricity reduced by 20-foldCost of transportation reduced 100-foldTelecom, information reduced by 1000-fold
HANS ROSLING | Swedish Statistician | Gapminder
Abundance through Technology
50 Jobs / 25 Industries Disrupted - Thomas Frey1. Taxi drivers 2. Uber & Lyft drivers 3. Delivery (FedEx, UPS, USPS) jobs 4. Courier jobs 5. Bus drivers 6. Truck drivers 7. Valet jobs 8. Chauffeurs and limo drivers 9. Road construction flag people 10. Drivers-Ed teachers 11. Traffic reporters 12. Traffic analysts 13. Car licensing and registration 14. Drivers test people 15. Rental car agents 16. Crash testers 17. Forklift drivers 18. Lawn mower operators 19. Snowplow operators 20. Water truck drivers 21. Water taxies 22. Ambulance drivers 23. Trash truck drivers 24. Tractor drivers 25. Combine operators
26. Auto industry lobbyists 27. Sprayer operators 28. Horse trailer drivers 29. Grain truck operators 30. Automated fruit harvester operators 31. Crane operators 32. Road grader operators 33. Earth movers 34. Street sweeper operators 35. Cement truck operators 36. Fuel truck operators 37. Auto sales – new and used 38. Account managers 39. Auto auctions 40. Credit managers 41. Loan underwriters 42. Insurance agents and sales reps 43. Insurance claims adjusters 44. Insurance call center agents 45. Traffic reporters on the news 46. Sobriety checkpoint people 47. Pothole repair people 48. Emission testers 49. Road and parking lot stripers 50. Night repair crews
1. Roadside assistance 2. Auto repair shops 3. Body shops 4. Tow trucks 5. Glass repair 6. Auto locksmiths 7. Transmission repair shops 8. Auto part stores 9. Gas stations 10. Car washes 11. Oil change businesses 12. Detail shops 13. Tire shops 14. Brake shops 15. Emissions testing 16. Alignment shops 17. Driving tests 18. Road rage school 19. Parking garages 20. Valet services 21. Traffic cops 22. Traffic courts – lawyers, DA, judges 23. Driver licenses 24. Patrol cars and officers 25. DUIs and drunk driving checkpoints
http://www.futuristspeaker.com/job-opportunities/128-things-that-will-disappear-in-the-driverless-car-era/
Addressing Sea Level Rises// Conservative: 2 foot rise in 30 yrs// 2 degree C temperature increase// Extreme weather
DigitizeDisruptDemonetizeDemocratize
New Breakthroughs
Information Layers
43
Market cap to a billion
Newspapers
Music
Chaos/ Amazement
You are here
Disappointment
Deception of linear vs exponential
Cost of Lidar2012: $75,0002017: $502020: $10
2002 16%200414%
2006 12%
2008 10%
Vinod Khosla // The rise of mobile phones
OECD - WEO
DigitizeDisruptDemonetizeDemocratize
New Breakthroughs
Information Layers
51
Open Everything
Domain is Digitized
Costs Dropto Zero
Open Source Communities
Form
TechnologiesIntersect
New Products
& Services
Existing BusinessesDisrupted
Hyperloop
Brain interface (Neuro)NeuroSky Mindwave
www.focusatwill.com
Bitcoin
$300 millionmoved in a day
Cost: $6
Bitcoin as currency
micro-transactions
Scarce
Divisible
Transportable
Recognizable
Fungible
Durable
Block Chain
http://bitly.com/bitcoinsalim2
"It took three days to settle and clear [trades] and now we can do it in 10 minutes”
Bob Greifeld, CEO - Nasdaq
Block Chain - applicationsInternational payments
Contracts
Transaction logs
Voting systems
Registries
Multi-signatory contracts (joint savings, forex, trust funds)
DACs (Distributed Autonomous Corporations - Ethereum)
© 2009, Salim Ismail 14
Powered by progress in computing
How many people are online?
1.2billion
2010 2.8billion
2015
>8billion
2022
Google Loon
SkyFi
60 nanosatellites
1 gb
What’sNext?
!67
source: Yuri van Geest
“Any company designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st.”
David Rose - Gust
ExOs.. 10x better performance
// Started off as ‘just’ a conference// Several thousand passionate attendees
// Exposed TED Talks on the web - over a billion views
// Created TEDx events - over 10,000 in five years
// Scaling the community
ted
Local Motors - StratiCarCo Local Motors
Cost of Design $3 billion $3 million
Number of Parts 25,000 50
Assembly Time 1000 man hrs 1 man hr
Area 1 million sq feet 1500 sq feet
ExO =
MTP + SCALE + IDEAS
the ExO formula
75
MTP=
Massive, Transformative, Purpose
the mtp
"Radical breakthroughs for the benefits of humanity"“Positively impact one billion people”"Organize the world's information""Make invention accessible""Ideas worth spreading"“Open Happiness”
Uniquely yoursHighly Aspirational
Neither narrow nor technology specificAimed at Heart & Mind
Declared with sincerity & confidence
MTP - Massive Transformative Purpose
S.C.A.L.EExternal Attributes of an ExO
S – Staff on DemandC – Community & CrowdA – AlgorithmsL – Leveraged AssetsE – Engagement
I.D.E.A.SInternal Attributes of an ExO
I – Interface ProcessesD – DashboardsE – ExperimentationA – AutonomyS – Social Technologies
Autonomy - 3x
4 out of 10 = ExO
Ranking the Fortune 100 by their ExO Score
f100.exponentialorgs.comYuri van GeestMichiel SchuurmanExO Experts
Hult Business School
“ExQ Score correlates to stock performance”
2 year trailing returns Top 10 Bottom 10
S&P +9.9%
+26.7% -1.7%
Advice to large companies
Advice to large companies• Transform leadership (mindset, education)• Inspire ExOs at edges (via chg mkrs)• Invest/Partner with adjacent ExOs• Leverage or expose data• Hire a ‘Black Ops’ team• Set up a Google[X] equivalent
Education from outside sources
Board Management
ImplementDiversity
LeadershipSkills
Advice to large companies• Transform leadership (mindset, education)• Inspire ExOs at edges (via chg mkrs)• Invest/Partner with adjacent ExOs• Leverage or expose data• Hire a ‘Black Ops’ team• Set up a Google[X] equivalent
Anecdotes..
The GrowRoom
ExO Sprint
Solve the immune system !
ExO COMPANIES
& CITIES
Medellin Rio Negro
Open Sourcing the ExO Sprint
Key Questions// What disruptions will affect you?// How will related industries be affected?// How are organizations reacting?// How do you navigate the turbulence?
Ideacity 2018 - “Death of CorporationsTEDx Toronto - “Fixing Civilization”TEDx Bay Area - “Occupy Male Street”
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