Fauquier 10-Year Enrollment Projections

8/10/2019 Fauquier 10-Year Enrollment Projections

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Fauquier County Public Schools

Ten-Year Enrollment Projections

School Years 2015-2016 through 2024-2025

October 2014

Excellence by Design


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Table of Contents

IntroductionPurpose iScope and Contents iMethodology iiCapacity Defined iiiImpacts on Data ivBirth and Enrollment Data vOverview of the Enrollment Projections vContact viii

Enrollment Summary

School Capacity and Projections 1Enrollment Summary by School 2Enrollment Summary by Grade 3Chart Division-wide Enrollment 4Chart Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment 5

AppendicesEligibility Conversion Table A1Birth Data and Growth Rate Table A2Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections A3

Kindergarten Enrollment Projections A4Chart Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births A5Elementary School Cohorts A6Enrollment by Elementary School A9Middle School Cohorts A12Enrollment by Middle School A13High School Cohorts A14Enrollment by High School A15

NOTE: All projections use fall membership data as of September 30.


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INTRODUCTION


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i

Purpose

Fauquier County Public Schools projects student enrollment for a ten-year period and updates those projectionsannually. The projections are developed to assist the school division in planning for and managing the current andfuture impacts of enrollment. These impacts include staff, facilities and other resources such as furniture, textbooks,

and supplies. Planning to meet these needs enhances the divisions ability to achieve excellence by design and equalityin education for its students.

Scope and Contents

The projections are developed using a methodology, which incorporates data from live births, historical enrollment, andthe progression of students from one grade level to the next.

Scope: The statistics for live birth for Fauquier County residents cover a ten-year period from 2003-2004 (October

through September) through 2012-2013 (see page A2). The 2012-2013 data is the latest available from the VirginiaBureau of Vital Records and Statistics. The historical enrollment is obtained from the records of the Fauquier CountyPublic Schools and covers the five-year period from School Year (SY) 2010-2011 through 2014-2015. The live birthdata and historical enrollment data is used to develop enrollment projections for a ten-year period from SY 2015-2016through SY 2024-2024. The projections are provided for each of the divisions eleven elementary schools, five middleschools, and three high schools.

Contents: The manual is organized in three sections:

Section 1: Introduction - offers an overview of the methodology.

Section 2: Enrollment Summary - includes projection data and charts that are developed from the detailedinformation provided in the appendices. The key summary table is shown on page 1, School Capacity andProjections, and provides the ten-year projections compared to the program capacity of each school.

Section 3: Appendices - includes data used to develop the projections. The data in this section is organizedbeginning with births through high school. Live birth data is provided on page A2, which is used in part to developpre-kindergarten and kindergarten projections on pages A3 and A4. Data tables for elementary, middle, and highschools follow with detail information by school and by grade.


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Methodology

The cohort survival model draws upon two major components to project future enrollment: live births for FauquierCounty residents and five years of actual enrollment data. The methodology uses the historical enrollment to evaluatethe grade-to-grade progression of students from one year to the next. Trends in the data and patterns of growth are

evaluated and applied to project future enrollment.

Pre-kindergarten and kindergarten: To project enrollment for pre-kindergarten and kindergarten, historical enrollmentis compared to live births. The ratio of actual enrollment in the pre-kindergarten or kindergarten year to live births in therelated birth year is used as a cohort to project future pre-kindergarten and kindergarten enrollment.

Grades 1 - 12: To project enrollment for grades 1 through 12, actual enrollment by grade level at each school is used todetermine how many students progressed from one grade level to the next grade in the following year. Using this data,historical progression rates are typically calculated for periods of one to five years. The progression rate, also known asthe cohort survival ratio, provides an average percentage growth factor to use in projecting future enrollment.

Cohort Survival Ratios: This manual shows the cohort survival ratio for five years for elementary, middle, and highschools.

Limitations: This methodology, while very useful, has several limitations. The model does not fully integrate otherfactors into the projections such as economic conditions and activity related to new developments and building permits.Also, enrollment projections are still only an estimate of future performance. Past performance and trend analysis data,although very useful, will vary in its accuracy in predicting future performance. Finally, projections will be more accurateon a division-wide basis than on an individual school basis. Factors that limit projections at individual schools includesize of the population being used, the addition of new classrooms at existing schools, changes in school boundary lines,relocation of division-wide special programs, and changes in the pattern of development activity. To compensate forthese limitations, enrollment projections are updated annually and market conditions and trends are considered inselecting cohorts and trend data.


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iii

Capacity Defined

In using enrollment data as it relates to building capacity, it is important to understand that a distinction exists betweenbuilding capacity (also known as design capacity) and program capacity. Definitions are provided below:

Building (Design) Capacity: Building capacity is defined as the number of students who can be accommodated in agiven building, based upon the size and layout of the designed spaces. This figure is determined by State of Virginiacriteria at the time of construction. The State assumes a classroom design capacity of 25 students per classroom. Atthe local level, School Board and administrative decisions regarding instructional programs may result in actualclassroom capacity that differs from the design capacity.

Program Capacity: The program capacity of a classroom takes into account the type of instructional program in theclassroom. Program capacity represents the number of students who can be accommodated in a space, based uponthe actual use of the space at the time. Program capacity may change from year to year as enrollment demographicschange. For example, the growth in enrollment of pre-kindergarten students may require an additional room be

designated as pre-K, thus reducing capacity in that classroom. Similar changes occur such as with special needs andEnglish as a Second Language programs. The current program capacity methodology for Fauquier County PublicSchools establishes maximum class sizes, which optimize instructional goals. The following class-size maximums arebeing used:

Class/Program Student/Teacher RatioPre-Kindergarten 12:1Kindergarten through 5thgrade 24:16thgrade through 8thgrade 25:1High School Academic and Health classrooms 25:1High School English and Arts education 24:1High School Business/Office education 25:1High School Photography 16:1High School Music 30:1High School Vocational education 20:1High School Main gym 30:1High School Auxiliary gym 25:1Self-contained, special education 8:1

In addition to classroom size, the Fauquier County School Board passed a resolution in November 2003, whichdetermined that student enrollment at its high schools should not exceed 1,200 students. The School Board also


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passed a resolution in April 2006 that elementary schools should be constructed for a student enrollment of 600 withcore facilities to accommodate 700 students. For middle schools, the School Board owns the Auburn Middle Schooldesign as its middle school prototype that was designed for a student population of 660 expandable to 810.

Impacts on Data

Development Activ ity: The number of new dwelling permits issued increased almost 28% from fiscal year 2013 tofiscal year 2014 and fiscal year 2013 was a 70% increase of the prior fiscal year. The largest number of dwellingpermits was issued in the Scott magisterial district (43%); however, the Marshall magisterial district was close with 36%of the permitting. This is a change from prior years when the Marshall magisterial district averaged 25 new dwellingpermits (99 permits issued in fiscal year 2014). Despite the increase in new housing permits, enrollment is relatively flatwith just a slight overall decrease.


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Birth and Enrollment Data

Live Births: The historical rate of live births for county residents is used to project future births and future enrollment atthe pre-kindergarten and kindergarten levels. Live births for Fauquier County are taken from birth certificates whichspecify a Fauquier County residence, regardless of the location of the actual birth. As shown on page A2, live births

were generally declining from a 15-year high in 2007-2008 of 826 births to a 12-year low in 2012-2013. The most recentlive birth data available, October 2012 through September 2013, reports 749 births or an increase of 6.5% from theprevious years extreme low of 703 births. The five-year average number of births for Fauquier County is 750. Giventhat this number is similar to the latest number of births (749) the one-year average growth rate in births (6.5%) was notused in projecting future number of births. Instead a more conservative number, the three-year average, was used.This three-year rate of -0.2% is used in tables A3 and A4 to project future births and pre-kindergarten and kindergartenenrollment.

Historical Enrollment: Historical enrollment data is obtained from Fauquier County Public Schools records. Theenrollment data used is based on the official September 30 enrollment reported to the State Department of Educationeach school year. Historical enrollment by school and by grade provides the data used as a cohort to determine futureenrollment at the next grade level at a given school. Using this data, survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods ofone to five years. In determining the appropriate cohort survival ratio to use for the projection, known current and futuremarket activity is considered as well as patterns of growth and progression in the school division. Historical enrollment,cohort survival ratios and enrollment projections are detailed in the appendices A6 through A16. Projections are alsosummarized in Section 2, Enrollment Summary, on pages 2 through 5.

Overview of the Enrollment Projections

Section 2, Enrollment Summary, is shown on pages 1 through 5. These pages provide (1) an overview of theenrollment projections by school, and (2) a comparison of enrollment with school capacity. The chart on page 1demonstrates that enrollment will exceed capacity at two elementary schools in the County over the next ten years;however, enrollment in total or by school level is not projected to exceed 95% of program capacity.

The projections include enrollment totals for pre-kindergarten through grade 12. A brief synopsis of the methodologyand resulting projections is provided in the following summary.


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Pre-Kindergarten (PK): In projecting PK enrollment, first the growth rate for live births was projected using a three-yearaverage of -0.2% (see A2). Next the actual PK enrollment was compared to total live births to obtain a future PKenrollment growth rate (see A3). In SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015, the PK enrollment ranged from 8.2% to10.4% of live births four years earlier. The ratio selected to project PK enrollment is the one-year rate of 8.9%. Forexample, in SY 2015-2016, PK enrollment is projected to be 67 as of September 30, 2015, which is 8.9% of live births of759 four years earlier (2010-2011). During the projection horizon, PK enrollment remains flat at 67 students except for

SY 2016-2017 which had the extreme low births four years prior. However, if PK participation is expanded, as isoccurring to some extent with the State mandated typical peers program, then the enrollment at the PK level willincrease accordingly. Such changes are not captured with this projection except to the extent it has occurred in thehistorical performance.

Kindergarten (K): As with PK, the methodology used to project K enrollment incorporates the change in live births as akey component. As mentioned earlier, live births are projected using the three-year average of -0.2% (see A2). Thenactual K enrollment is compared to total live births to obtain a K enrollment growth rate (see A4). To project K enrollmentthe five-year average of 96.1% is used. This rate is the average of the past five years. Using this average in SY 2015-2016, K enrollment is projected to be 729 as of September 30, 2015, which is 96.1% of live births of 757 five years

earlier (2009-2010). K enrollment is projected to decrease from 734 in the current year to 713 in SY 2024-2025.

In developing K enrollment projections by school, the enrollment for each school for SY 2014-2015 is calculated as apercentage of the division-wide kindergarten enrollment, and shown in a separate column on page A4. This percentageby school is then used to allocate future K enrollment projections for each school. For example, as shown in this table,in SY 2014-2015 Bradleys enrollment of 66 was 9.0% of the total kindergarten enrollment of 734. By applying Bradleys9.0% allocation to the SY 2015-2016 K projected enrollment of 729, it results in a K enrollment projection for Bradley of65 kindergarten students.

The graph on page A5 compares projected K enrollment (shown by the blue bars) to projected live births (shown by the

red line). As the graphs portrays, birth exceed projected K enrollment for the ten-year period. This is due in part to thefact that Fauquier births have exceeded K enrollment on a five-year average and has dropped significantly in the lasttwo years.

Elementary: Elementary school historical enrollment is provided for each school for SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015. Using this information and the kindergarten enrollment, cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to fiveyears. A survival cohort ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment in a given year to theprior grade one year earlier. In this projection, the one-year cohort ratios were deemed to provide accurate projectionsby school and used. The one-year enrollment change is an increase of 0.1% division-wide.


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Middle: Middle school historical enrollment is provided for each school from SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015. Asurvival cohort ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment from one grade level in a givenyear to the next grade level in the following year enrollments were modeled for SY 2012-2013 due to a middle schoolredistricting. Survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years. For the purpose of this projection, thetwo-year ratio is used to project future enrollment. The two-year enrollment projection is 2.4% decrease division-wide.

For middle school enrollment projections, the transition of fifth graders from elementary schools to sixth grade in themiddle schools must be determined. Because the school division does not use feeder schools, it is necessary toassume progression from fifth grade to sixth grade based on division-wide numbers and historical representation ateach school. For example, in SY 2014-2015 the division-wide fifth grade enrollment is 850. In SY 2014-2015 AuburnMiddle School sixth grade enrollment is 175, or 23.1% of the total fifth grade enrollment. A similar allocation is made foreach middle school. The detailed ratios and projections are provided in the appendices on pages A12 and A13.

Due to the impact of the SY 2012-2013 redistricting, development activity focused in specific areas, and the modeling ofstudent enrollment at the middle schools, the division-wide ratios are more accurate than the ratios by individual

schools.

High: High school enrollment projections follow the same process used at the elementary and middle schools. Highschool historical enrollment is provided for each school from SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015. A survival cohortratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment from one grade level in a given year to the nextgrade level in the following year. Survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years.

For the purpose of this projection, the one-year ratio is used to project future enrollment. The one-year enrollmentgrowth is 3.3% division-wide. Because the school division does not use feeder schools, it is necessary to assumeprogression from eighth grade to ninth grade based on division-wide numbers and historical representation at each

school. The cohort ratios for individual schools are added together to achieve a division-wide cohort as described formiddle schools.

Summary: The capacity and enrollment projections on page 1 shows that at the elementary level two schools shouldbe monitored; Pierce and Thompson elementary schools. Both are projected to exceed their total program capacityduring the ten-year period. Overall, among the 11 elementary schools, sufficient program capacity is projected for all 10years.


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At the middle school level, the SY 2012-2013 redistricting appears to have achieved its goal. None of the middleschools are projected to exceed their program capacity during the 10-year period.

The high schools currently reflect sufficient capacity at all three schools for the projection period. This is due in part totwo changes that were made to program capacity. First, the addition to Fauquier high school increased its programcapacity. Second, the methodology for high schools was reviewed in 2013 and adjusted to account for building design.

Kettle Run high school and the addition at Fauquier high school were designed to allow for a higher utilization ofclassrooms that is now reflected in the program capacity numbers.

At the end of the 10-year projection period, it is anticipated that Fauquier County Public Schools will decrease in itsenrollment. School year 2024-2025 is projected to have an enrollment of 10,330 or just 6.6% less than the current year.This is all based on trend analysis that is slow to react to shifts in trend data. It is thought that the enrollment isbeginning to experience a shift from slightly declining enrollment to growth enrollment instead of just a minor downwardfluctuation; however, insufficient data is currently available. The current approved subdivisions in the county have thepotential to increase enrollment by an estimated 1,300 students. Next years enrollment forecast may reflect a differentpicture.

Contact

For questions regarding these projections, please contact the Office of Budget and Planning at (540) 422-7036.


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ENROLLMENT SUMMARY

Page 1 School Capacity and Project ions: This table provides data on program capacity by school aswell as projected enrollment for ten years. This information is used in evaluating futureconstruction needs.

Page 2 Enrollment Summary by School : This data table provides enrollment history for five years byschool. It also provides a ten-year summary of the enrollment projections for each school.Additional detail on the projections is provided in the Appendices.

Page 3 Enrol lment Summary by Grade: This table provides a division-wide summary of enrollmentby grade, including five prior years and ten projected years.

Page 4 Divis ion-wide Enrollment Chart: The chart demonstrates the division-wide growth inenrollment for five prior years and ten projected years.

Page 5 Elementary, Middle and High School Enrol lment Chart: This chart demonstrates the growthin enrollment by category of school for five prior years and ten projected years.


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Ten-Year Enrol lment Projections

School Capacity and Projections

Projections SY15/16-SY24/25 Page 1

Program 95% Actual Projected

Capacity Cap 2014-15 % Cap 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

ES South

Miller 580 551 462 79.7% 452 448 440 436 439 437 436 434 438 437

Pearson 532 505 420 78.9% 432 438 434 441 447 445 443 440 446 445

Pierce 560 532 539 96.3% 553 558 564 564 552 550 546 543 549 548Walter 588 559 422 71.8% 399 398 389 400 403 401 400 397 399 398

Subtotal South 2,260 2,147 1,843 81.5% 1,836 1,842 1,827 1,841 1,841 1,833 1,825 1,814 1,832 1,828

ES Central

Bradley 588 559 491 83.5% 473 477 470 465 441 439 438 435 440 439

Brumfield 716 680 564 78.8% 557 566 560 557 561 559 559 558 562 561

Greenville 604 574 492 81.5% 499 522 517 517 493 491 490 488 493 492

Ritchie 548 521 383 69.9% 357 326 304 279 266 265 264 263 265 265

Smith 572 543 388 67.8% 354 334 305 308 298 297 295 293 296 296

Subtotal Central 3,028 2,877 2,318 76.6% 2,240 2,225 2,156 2,126 2,059 2,051 2,046 2,037 2,056 2,053

ES North

Coleman 520 494 343 66.0% 343 333 333 321 327 326 324 322 326 326

Thompson 368 350 293 79.6% 318 347 347 357 380 379 377 376 382 381

Subtotal North 888 844 636 71.6% 661 680 680 678 707 705 701 698 708 707

TOTAL ELEMENTARY 6,176 5,867 4,797 77.7% 4,737 4,747 4,663 4,645 4,607 4,589 4,572 4,549 4,596 4,588

Avail able Capacit y 1,379 22.3% 1,439 1,429 1,513 1,531 1,569 1,587 1,604 1,627 1,580 1,588

MS

Auburn 622 591 581 93.4% 586 559 575 563 572 566 565 560 544 542

Cedar Lee 704 669 606 86.1% 593 568 579 567 576 570 569 564 548 546

Marshall 654 621 470 71.9% 461 438 452 443 450 445 444 441 428 426

Taylor 547 520 452 82.6% 460 447 454 445 452 447 446 442 429 428

Warrenton 518 492 437 84.4% 423 414 426 417 424 419 418 414 403 401

TOTAL MIDDLE 3,045 2,893 2,546 83.6% 2,523 2,425 2,486 2,434 2,475 2,447 2,441 2,420 2,352 2,343

Avail able Capacit y 499 16.4% 522 620 559 611 570 598 604 625 693 702

HS

Fauquier 1,612 1,531 1,278 79.3% 1,272 1,271 1,242 1,225 1,193 1,175 1,187 1,175 1,182 1,170

Kettle Run 1,360 1,292 1,225 90.1% 1,285 1,304 1,241 1,220 1,186 1,165 1,178 1,165 1,173 1,161

Liberty 1,370 1,302 1,209 88.2% 1,194 1,182 1,134 1,117 1,088 1,071 1,084 1,073 1,079 1,068

TOTAL HIGH 4,342 4,125 3,712 85.5% 3,751 3,757 3,617 3,562 3,467 3,411 3,449 3,413 3,434 3,399

Avail able Capacit y 630 14.5% 591 585 725 780 875 931 893 929 908 943

District Total 13,563 12,885 11,055 81.5% 11,011 10,929 10,766 10,641 10,549 10,447 10,462 10,382 10,382 10,330

Annu al Enro llmen t Gro wth -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -1.5% -1.2% -0.9% -1.0% 0.1% -0.8% 0.0% -0.5%

Enrollment meets or exceeds 95% of capacity; impact from approved/pending new development projects not fully captured by projections.

Notes: Program capacity does not include modular classrooms added to provide temporary space.

Enrollment includes pre-kindergarten.

Pierce elementary school's program capacity reflects a calculation correction.


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Ten-Year Enrollment ProjectionsEnrollment Summary by School

Actual and Projected


Actual Projected

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Elementary Schools

Bradley 495 498 478 489 491 473 477 470 465 441 439 438 435 440 439

Brumfield 591 587 618 572 564 557 566 560 557 561 559 559 558 562 561

Coleman 381 344 328 337 343 343 333 333 321 327 326 324 322 326 326

Greenville 455 500 483 488 492 499 522 517 517 493 491 490 488 493 492

Miller 453 484 487 470 462 452 448 440 436 439 437 436 434 438 437

Pearson 456 378 373 401 420 432 438 434 441 447 445 443 440 446 445

Pierce 532 532 516 526 539 553 558 564 564 552 550 546 543 549 548

Ritchie 484 466 418 412 383 357 326 304 279 266 265 264 263 265 265

Smith 471 461 434 426 388 354 334 305 308 298 297 295 293 296 296

Thompson 304 286 275 263 293 318 347 347 357 380 379 377 376 382 381

Walter 461 482 418 422 422 399 398 389 400 403 401 400 397 399 398

Total Elementary 5,083 5,018 4,828 4,806 4,797 4,737 4,747 4,663 4,645 4,607 4,589 4,572 4,549 4,596 4,588

Annual Change (24) (65) (190) (22) (9) (60) 10 (84) (18) (38) (18) (17) (23) 47 (8)

Middle Schools

Auburn 605 609 598 602 581 586 559 575 563 572 566 565 560 544 542

Cedar Lee 653 662 668 642 606 593 568 579 567 576 570 569 564 548 546

Marshall 500 492 497 493 470 461 438 452 443 450 445 444 441 428 426

Taylor 392 371 396 443 452 460 447 454 445 452 447 446 442 429 428

Warrenton 490 538 516 505 437 423 414 426 417 424 419 418 414 403 401

Total Middle 2,640 2,672 2,675 2,685 2,546 2,523 2,425 2,486 2,434 2,475 2,447 2,441 2,420 2,352 2,343

Annual Change 58 32 3 10 (139) (23) (98) 61 (52) 41 (27) (6) (21) (68) (9)

High Schools

Fauquier 1,209 1,200 1,191 1,224 1,278 1,272 1,271 1,242 1,225 1,193 1,175 1,187 1,175 1,182 1,170

Kettle Run 1,037 1,086 1,134 1,183 1,225 1,285 1,304 1,241 1,220 1,186 1,165 1,178 1,165 1,173 1,161Liberty 1,272 1,225 1,204 1,186 1,209 1,194 1,182 1,134 1,117 1,088 1,071 1,084 1,073 1,079 1,068

Total High 3,518 3,511 3,529 3,593 3,712 3,751 3,757 3,617 3,562 3,467 3,411 3,449 3,413 3,434 3,399

Annual Change (15) (7) 18 64 119 39 6 (140) (55) (95) (56) 38 (36) 21 (35)

District Total 11,241 11,201 11,032 11,084 11,055 11,011 10,929 10,766 10,641 10,549 10,447 10,462 10,382 10,382 10,330

Annual Incr ease (#) 19 (40) (169) 52 (29) (44) (82) (163) (125) (92) (101) 15 (80) 0 (52)

Annual Incr ease (%) 0.2% -0.4% -1.5% 0.5% -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -1.5% -1.2% -0.9% -1.0% 0.1% -0.8% 0.0% -0.5%


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Enrollment Summary by Grade



Actual En ro llment Pro jected Enr ol lment

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Elementary Schoo lsPre-Kindergarten 70 75 68 81 67 67 62 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67

Kindergarten 813 801 748 754 734 729 734 675 721 721 718 715 715 716 713

Grade 1 815 807 794 756 779 757 750 757 696 742 743 739 736 736 737

Grade 2 784 817 782 804 770 792 768 761 768 705 753 754 750 747 747

Grade 3 859 778 808 776 820 789 814 786 779 786 721 770 771 767 764

Grade 4 867 869 774 849 777 823 793 818 794 787 794 728 778 779 775

Grade 5 875 871 854 786 850 780 826 799 820 799 793 799 732 784 785

Total Elementary 5,083 5,018 4,828 4,806 4,797 4,737 4,747 4,663 4,645 4,607 4,589 4,572 4,549 4,596 4,588

Annual Change (24) (65) (190) (22) (9) (60) 10 (84) (18) (38) (18) (17) (23) 47 (8)

Middle SchoolsGrade 6 871 891 889 884 775 860 789 836 808 830 808 802 808 740 793

Grade 7 904 872 907 885 885 774 858 788 834 807 828 807 801 807 739

Grade 8 865 909 879 916 886 890 777 863 792 838 811 832 811 805 811

Total Middle 2,640 2,672 2,675 2,685 2,546 2,523 2,425 2,486 2,434 2,475 2,447 2,441 2,420 2,352 2,343

Annual Change 58 32 3 10 (139) (23) (98) 61 (52) 41 (27) (6) (21) (68) (9)

High Schools

Grade 9 915 940 972 966 979 946 951 831 922 846 896 867 889 867 860

Grade 10 873 852 916 921 938 950 918 922 805 895 820 868 841 861 841

Grade 11 897 794 808 858 894 916 924 893 897 784 871 798 845 819 837

Grade 12 833 925 833 848 901 939 964 971 938 942 824 916 838 887 861

Total High 3,518 3,511 3,529 3,593 3,712 3,751 3,757 3,617 3,562 3,467 3,411 3,449 3,413 3,434 3,399

Annual Change (15) (7) 18 64 119 39 6 (140) (55) (95) (56) 38 (36) 21 (35)

District Total 11,241 11,201 11,032 11,084 11,055 11,011 10,929 10,766 10,641 10,549 10,447 10,462 10,382 10,382 10,330

Annual Change 19 (40) (169) 52 (29) (44) (82) (163) (125) (92) (101) 15 (80) 0 (52)

0.2% -0.4% -1.5% 0.5% -0.3% -0.4% -0.7% -1.5% -1.2% -0.9% -1.0% 0.1% -0.8% 0.0% -0.5%


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Division-wide Enrollment


Note: Enrollment as of September 30 each year, including Pre-Kindergarten.

Solid bars represent historical enrollment; dotted bars represent projections.


11,241 11,20111,032 11,084 11,055 11,011 10,929

10,76610,641 10,549 10,447 10,462 10,382 10,382 10,330

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

StudentE

nrollment

School Year


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Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment


Note: Enrollment as of September 30 each year, including Pre-Kindergarten.


5,083 5,018

4,828 4,806 4,797 4,737 4,7474,663 4,645 4,607 4,589 4,572 4,549 4,596 4,588

2,640 2,672 2,675 2,6852,546 2,523

2,425 2,486 2,434 2,475 2,447 2,441 2,420 2,3522,343

3,518 3,511 3,5293,593

3,712 3,751 3,7573,617 3,562

3,467 3,411 3,449 3,413 3,434 3,399

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

StudentEnrollment

School Year

Elementary Middle High


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APPENDICES - ENROLLMENT DETAIL

A1 Eligibi li ty Conversion Table

A2 Birth Data and Growth Rates Table

A3 Pre-Kindergarten Enrol lment Projections Table

A4 Kindergarten Enrollment Project ions Table

A5 Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births Chart

A6 Elementary School Cohorts Table

A9 Enrol lment by Elementary School Table

A12 Middle School Cohorts Table

A13 Enrol lment by Middle School Table

A14 High School Cohorts Table

A15 Enrol lment by High School Table


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Eligibili ty Conversion Table

Projections SY15/16-SY24/25 Page A1

From To Eligible School Year Eligible School Year

10/1/2004 9/30/2005 Sep-2009 09/10 Sep-2010 10/11

10/1/2005 9/30/2006 Sep-2010 10/11 Sep-2011 11/12

10/1/2006 9/30/2007 Sep-2011 11/12 Sep-2012 12/13

10/1/2007 9/30/2008 Sep-2012 12/13 Sep-2013 13/1410/1/2008 9/30/2009 Sep-2013 13/14 Sep-2014 14/15

10/1/2009 9/30/2010 Sep-2014 14/15 Sep-2015 15/16

10/1/2010 9/30/2011 Sep-2015 15/16 Sep-2016 16/17

10/1/2011 9/30/2012 Sep-2016 16/17 Sep-2017 17/18

10/1/2012 9/30/2013 Sep-2017 17/18 Sep-2018 18/19

10/1/2013 9/30/2014 Sep-2018 18/19 Sep-2019 19/2010/1/2014 9/30/2015 Sep-2019 19/20 Sep-2020 20/21

10/1/2015 9/30/2016 Sep-2020 20/21 Sep-2021 21/22

10/1/2016 9/30/2017 Sep-2021 21/22 Sep-2022 22/23

10/1/2017 9/30/2018 Sep-2022 22/23 Sep-2023 23/24

10/1/2018 9/30/2019 Sep-2023 23/24 Sep-2024 24/25

If Date of Birth is Pre-Kindergarten Kindergarten


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Birth Data and Growth Rates


Birth Month/Year 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13

October 57 67 65 70 77 68 58 68 57 54

November 69 62 66 67 60 72 58 59 72 50

December 62 56 59 56 62 75 70 52 60 56

January 76 73 56 71 61 49 52 56 64 49

February 45 55 59 45 72 62 54 52 64 60

March 54 67 78 65 70 65 60 67 50 59

April 67 65 60 70 71 62 65 51 56 58

May 50 70 83 74 67 67 64 66 62 72

June 69 63 59 63 60 56 74 62 46 73

July 68 85 59 67 74 64 75 84 55 89

August 72 71 75 80 88 66 79 66 58 61

September 58 76 73 71 64 73 48 76 59 68

TOTAL ELIGIBLE 747 810 792 799 826 779 757 759 703 749

Annual Change (#) 41 63 -18 7 27 -47 -22 2 -56 46

Annual Change (%) 5.8% 8.4% -2.2% 0.9% 3.4% -5.7% -2.8% 0.3% -7.4% 6.5%

K ELIGIBILITY YEAR 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19

GROWTH RATE IN BIRTHS

Prior Years Average %

1-Year 6.5%

2-Year -0.4%

3-Year -0.2%

4-Year -0.8%

5-Year -1.8%

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

LIVE BIRTHS FOR 15 YEARS


21/33


Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections


% of Projected Enrollment2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Total 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Bradley 9 9 10 11 10 14.9% 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Brumfield 7 10 9 11 8 11.9% 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Coleman 3 - - - - 0.0% - - - - - - - - - -

Greenville 5 6 5 8 5 7.5% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Miller 6 10 9 3 6 9.0% 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Pearson 8 6 4 11 8 11.9% 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Pierce 7 8 9 8 5 7.5% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Ritchie 11 11 10 15 12 17.9% 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Smith 4 - 7 9 7 10.5% 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Thompson 3 6 - - - 0.0% - - - - - - - - - -

Walter 7 9 5 5 6 9.0% 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Total PK Enrollment 70 75 68 81 67 100.0% 67 62 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67

Annual Growth (#) (16) 5 (7) 13 (14) (1) (5) 5 - - - - - - -

Annual Growth (%) -18.6% 7.1% -9.3% 19.1% -17.3% -1.5% -7.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Actual B irt hs Projected Births

Birth Year 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Live Births (4 Yrs. Prior) 792 799 826 779 757 759 703 749 748 746 745 743 742 740 739Projection uses 3-year average birth rate growth -0.2%

PK Cohort to Births 8.8% 9.4% 8.2% 10.4% 8.9%

(% Actual PK to Birth)

Averag es: PK to Bir ths

1-Year 8.9% Uses 1-year average of PK enrollment compared to births as a cohort to project future enrollment.2-Year 9.6%

3-Year 9.2%

4-Year 9.2%

5-Year 9.1%


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Ten-Year Enrollment Projecti ons

Kindergarten Enrollment Projections


Act ual En rol lmen t Proj ected Enro llment

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 To tal 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Bradley 73 70 77 87 66 9.0% 65 66 60 65 66 65 64 64 64 64

Brumfield 103 97 108 87 94 12.8% 93 93 87 92 92 92 92 92 92 91

Coleman 64 46 53 44 50 6.8% 51 50 46 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

Greenville 62 74 64 82 67 9.1% 66 67 62 66 66 66 65 65 65 65

Miller 83 80 84 73 78 10.6% 77 78 72 77 76 76 76 76 76 76

Pearson 81 68 60 67 72 9.8% 71 72 66 71 71 70 70 70 70 70

Pierce 93 97 86 94 86 11.7% 85 86 79 84 84 84 83 83 84 83

Ritchie 75 60 57 53 42 5.7% 42 42 39 41 41 41 41 41 41 41

Smith 63 76 50 62 52 7.1% 53 53 48 51 51 51 51 51 51 51

Thompson 42 55 49 39 57 7.8% 57 57 52 56 56 56 56 56 56 55

Walter 74 78 60 66 70 9.5% 69 70 64 69 69 68 68 68 68 68

Total K Enrollment 813 801 748 754 734 100.0% 729 734 675 721 721 718 715 715 716 713

Annual Growth (#) 24 (12) (53) 6 (20) (5) 5 (59) 46 - (3) (3) - 1 (3)

Annual Growth (%) 3.0% -1.5% -6.6% 0.8% -2.7% -0.7% 0.7% -8.0% 6.8% 0.0% -0.4% -0.4% 0.0% 0.1% -0.4%

Projected Births

Birth Year 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

Live Births (5 Yrs Prior) 810 792 799 826 779 757 759 703 749 748 747 746 745 744 743

Projection uses 3-year average birth rate growth -0.2%

K Enrollment to Births 100.4% 101.1% 93.6% 91.3% 94.2%

Averages: Birt hs t o K

1-Year 94.2%

2-Year 92.8%3-Year 93.0%

4-Year 95.1%5-Year 96.1% Uses 5-year average of K enrollment compared to births as a cohort to project future enrollment.


23/33

Ten-Year Enrollment ProjectionsProjected Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Actu al/Projected Births


Note: Birth data shown is for b irths occu rring/projected for f ive years earlier.

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25

En

rollment#

Kindergarten Enrollment Year

K Enrollment Births

729

757

713

743

703

Ten Year Enrollment Projections


24/33


Elementary School Cohorts


Actual Enrol lment Cohort Select2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 1-Year

Bradley K 73 70 77 87 66

1 82 81 67 73 93 106.9% 101.2% 99.6% 102.3% 99.5% 106.9%

2 79 89 79 74 75 102.7% 106.4% 103.2% 104.6% 101.8% 102.7%

3 88 76 83 76 81 109.5% 102.6% 99.2% 98.4% 97.1% 109.5%4 78 97 73 97 74 97.4% 107.6% 103.8% 105.6% 101.7% 97.4%

5 86 76 89 71 92 94.9% 95.9% 94.4% 95.1% 95.6% 94.9%

Bradley Total 486 489 468 478 481 100.6% 101.4% 99.4% 99.7% 99.7% 100.6%

Brumfield K 103 97 108 87 94

1 89 91 96 95 87 100.0% 93.3% 95.2% 93.4% 95.4% 100.0%

2 100 87 98 95 95 100.0% 99.5% 102.1% 101.1% 102.2% 100.0%

3 100 99 95 86 99 104.2% 95.9% 100.0% 99.7% 98.0% 104.2%

4 96 108 102 98 81 94.2% 98.9% 100.4% 102.4% 103.2% 94.2%

5 96 95 110 100 100 102.0% 100.0% 100.7% 100.3% 100.4% 102.0%

Brumfield Total 584 577 609 561 556 99.1% 95.5% 98.8% 98.8% 98.8% 99.1%

Coleman K 64 46 53 44 50

1 61 60 48 62 47 106.8% 112.4% 109.8% 104.8% 107.3% 106.8%

2 51 51 63 52 64 103.2% 105.5% 105.3% 99.6% 98.6% 103.2%

3 59 59 54 66 54 103.9% 104.4% 104.8% 107.4% 106.6% 103.9%

4 66 54 56 58 65 98.5% 102.5% 100.0% 97.9% 99.0% 98.5%

5 77 74 54 55 63 108.6% 103.5% 102.4% 105.1% 106.3% 108.6%

Coleman Total 378 344 328 337 343 101.8% 102.3% 99.9% 97.5% 97.5% 101.8%

Greenville K 62 74 64 82 67

1 54 69 77 75 92 112.2% 114.4% 110.9% 111.0% 113.6% 112.2%

2 79 71 70 84 83 110.7% 109.9% 107.2% 112.0% 112.5% 110.7%

3 87 76 82 68 90 107.1% 102.6% 106.7% 104.0% 102.5% 107.1%

4 86 105 80 83 69 101.5% 101.3% 102.7% 107.7% 107.4% 101.5%

5 82 99 105 88 86 103.6% 106.8% 104.1% 106.8% 106.2% 103.6%

Greenville Total 450 494 478 480 487 101.5% 100.9% 99.5% 102.0% 102.0% 101.5%



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Miller K 83 80 84 73 78

1 64 83 83 79 71 97.3% 95.5% 98.3% 98.8% 94.5% 97.3%

2 81 74 75 76 77 97.5% 94.4% 93.1% 97.7% 96.5% 97.5%

3 80 78 73 77 75 98.7% 100.7% 100.0% 99.0% 100.5% 98.7%4 71 80 80 81 76 98.7% 104.7% 104.0% 102.9% 100.3% 98.7%

5 68 79 83 81 79 97.5% 99.4% 100.8% 103.2% 103.5% 97.5%

Miller Total 447 474 478 467 456 97.6% 97.7% 98.7% 100.5% 100.5% 97.6%

Pearson K 81 68 60 67 72

1 81 64 65 63 65 97.0% 100.8% 99.0% 93.1% 95.5% 97.0%

2 64 66 67 66 61 96.8% 99.2% 101.0% 95.2% 95.3% 96.8%

3 70 64 65 65 70 106.1% 101.5% 100.5% 100.4% 99.1% 106.1%

4 71 54 57 68 73 112.3% 108.5% 102.1% 95.5% 98.8% 112.3%

5 81 56 55 61 71 104.4% 105.6% 104.5% 97.2% 97.6% 104.4%

Pearson Total 448 372 369 390 412 105.6% 105.7% 103.5% 97.7% 97.7% 105.6%

Pierce K 93 97 86 94 86

1 88 93 88 83 93 98.9% 97.8% 95.3% 96.5% 99.1% 98.9%

2 87 87 91 82 92 110.8% 101.8% 100.4% 100.0% 99.3% 110.8%

3 82 79 87 94 86 104.9% 104.1% 102.7% 99.7% 100.0% 104.9%

4 84 79 80 85 95 101.1% 99.5% 100.0% 99.1% 101.0% 101.1%

5 91 89 75 80 82 96.5% 98.2% 97.1% 99.4% 100.0% 96.5%

Pierce Total 525 524 507 518 534 103.1% 102.6% 100.7% 100.4% 100.4% 103.1%

Ritchie K 75 60 57 53 42

1 72 80 60 62 50 94.3% 101.8% 101.2% 102.9% 104.5% 94.3%

2 60 71 74 64 68 109.7% 108.2% 102.0% 101.1% 102.1% 109.7%

3 87 65 64 76 66 103.1% 102.9% 98.6% 100.7% 102.6% 103.1%

4 92 86 65 71 74 97.4% 103.6% 102.4% 101.4% 102.9% 97.4%

5 87 93 88 71 71 100.0% 104.4% 103.6% 102.9% 103.0% 100.0%

Ritchie Total 473 455 408 397 371 93.5% 95.4% 93.3% 94.1% 94.1% 93.5%



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Smith K 63 76 50 62 52

1 80 66 82 51 66 106.5% 104.5% 105.9% 105.6% 103.6% 106.5%

2 76 80 62 82 47 92.2% 97.0% 96.0% 97.1% 96.7% 92.2%

3 76 80 78 68 77 93.9% 100.7% 99.6% 101.0% 100.8% 93.9%4 90 71 82 77 64 94.1% 96.6% 98.7% 97.4% 98.0% 94.1%

5 82 88 73 77 75 97.4% 95.6% 97.8% 97.8% 98.5% 97.4%

Smith Total 467 461 427 417 381 91.4% 94.6% 93.9% 95.2% 95.2% 91.4%

Thompson K 42 55 49 39 57

1 51 38 50 49 40 102.6% 101.1% 97.2% 95.7% 99.6% 102.6%

2 44 53 32 56 53 108.2% 110.1% 102.9% 103.2% 103.9% 108.2%

3 60 35 46 36 54 96.4% 102.3% 96.5% 92.4% 95.5% 96.4%

4 47 63 35 44 43 119.4% 106.1% 104.3% 104.5% 102.2% 119.4%

5 57 36 63 39 46 104.6% 107.6% 104.2% 97.4% 98.8% 104.6%

Thompson Total 301 280 275 263 293 111.4% 103.4% 101.6% 99.3% 99.3% 111.4%

Walter K 74 78 60 66 70

1 93 82 78 64 75 113.6% 110.3% 106.4% 107.6% 106.5% 113.6%

2 63 88 71 73 55 85.9% 90.1% 88.8% 90.5% 91.9% 85.9%

3 70 67 81 64 68 93.2% 91.7% 91.8% 94.9% 96.7% 93.2%

4 86 72 64 87 63 98.4% 103.5% 100.9% 101.4% 100.3% 98.4%

5 68 86 59 63 85 97.7% 98.0% 92.8% 94.8% 95.3% 97.7%

Walter Total 454 473 413 417 416 99.8% 100.4% 95.6% 97.8% 97.8% 99.8%

Elementary Summary K 813 801 748 754 734

1 815 807 794 756 779 103.3% 102.2% 101.1% 100.6% 101.2% 103.3%

2 784 817 782 804 770 101.9% 101.6% 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 101.9%3 859 778 808 776 820 102.0% 100.6% 100.0% 99.8% 99.9% 102.0%

4 867 869 774 849 777 100.1% 102.7% 101.6% 101.5% 101.4% 100.1%

5 875 871 854 786 850 100.1% 100.8% 99.9% 100.1% 100.5% 100.1%

Total Elementary 5,013 4,943 4,760 4,725 4,730 100.1% 99.7% 98.5% 98.5% 98.5% 100.1%



27/33


Enrollment by Elementary School


Projections SY15/16-SY24/25

Page A9

Act ual Enrol lmen t Proj ected Enro llment

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Bradley

PK 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

K 73 70 77 87 66 65 66 60 65 66 65 64 64 64 641 82 81 67 73 93 71 69 71 64 69 71 69 68 68 68

2 79 89 79 74 75 96 73 71 73 66 71 73 71 70 70

3 88 76 83 76 81 82 105 80 78 80 72 78 80 78 77

4 78 97 73 97 74 79 80 102 78 76 78 70 76 78 76

5 86 76 89 71 92 70 75 76 97 74 72 74 66 72 74

subtotal 495 498 478 489 491 473 477 470 465 441 439 438 435 440 439

Brumfield

PK 7 10 9 11 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

K 103 97 108 87 94 93 93 87 92 92 92 92 92 92 91

1 89 91 96 95 87 94 93 93 87 92 92 92 92 92 92

2 100 87 98 95 95 87 94 93 93 87 92 92 92 92 92

3 100 99 95 86 99 99 91 98 97 97 91 96 96 96 964 96 108 102 98 81 93 93 86 92 91 91 86 90 90 90

5 96 95 110 100 100 83 95 95 88 94 93 93 88 92 92

subtotal 591 587 618 572 564 557 566 560 557 561 559 559 558 562 561

Coleman

PK 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

K 64 46 53 44 50 51 50 46 49 49 49 49 49 49 49

1 61 60 48 62 47 53 54 53 49 52 52 52 52 52 52

2 51 51 63 52 64 49 55 56 55 51 54 54 54 54 54

3 59 59 54 66 54 66 51 57 58 57 53 56 56 56 56

4 66 54 56 58 65 53 65 50 56 57 56 52 55 55 55

5 77 74 54 55 63 71 58 71 54 61 62 61 56 60 60

subtotal 381 344 328 337 343 343 333 333 321 327 326 324 322 326 326

Greenville

PK 5 6 5 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

K 62 74 64 82 67 66 67 62 66 66 66 65 65 65 65

1 54 69 77 75 92 75 74 75 70 74 74 74 73 73 73

2 79 71 70 84 83 102 83 82 83 77 82 82 82 81 81

3 87 76 82 68 90 89 109 89 88 89 82 88 88 88 87

4 86 105 80 83 69 91 90 111 90 89 90 83 89 89 89

5 82 99 105 88 86 71 94 93 115 93 92 93 86 92 92

subtotal 455 500 483 488 492 499 522 517 517 493 491 490 488 493 492



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j




Page A10


2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Miller

PK 6 10 9 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

K 83 80 84 73 78 77 78 72 77 76 76 76 76 76 761 64 83 83 79 71 76 75 76 70 75 74 74 74 74 74

2 81 74 75 76 77 69 74 73 74 68 73 72 72 72 72

3 80 78 73 77 75 76 68 73 72 73 67 72 71 71 71

4 71 80 80 81 76 74 75 67 72 71 72 66 71 70 70

5 68 79 83 81 79 74 72 73 65 70 69 70 64 69 68

subtotal 453 484 487 470 462 452 448 440 436 439 437 436 434 438 437

Pearson

PK 8 6 4 11 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

K 81 68 60 67 72 71 72 66 71 71 70 70 70 70 70

1 81 64 65 63 65 70 69 70 64 69 69 68 68 68 68

2 64 66 67 66 61 63 68 67 68 62 67 67 66 66 66

3 70 64 65 65 70 65 67 72 71 72 66 71 71 70 704 71 54 57 68 73 79 73 75 81 80 81 74 80 80 79

5 81 56 55 61 71 76 82 76 78 85 84 85 77 84 84

subtotal 456 378 373 401 420 432 438 434 441 447 445 443 440 446 445

Pierce

PK 7 8 9 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

K 93 97 86 94 86 85 86 79 84 84 84 83 83 84 83

1 88 93 88 83 93 85 84 85 78 83 83 83 82 82 83

2 87 87 91 82 92 103 94 93 94 86 92 92 92 91 91

3 82 79 87 94 86 96 108 99 98 99 90 96 96 96 95

4 84 79 80 85 95 87 97 109 100 99 100 91 97 97 97

5 91 89 75 80 82 92 84 94 105 96 96 96 88 94 94

subtotal 532 532 516 526 539 553 558 564 564 552 550 546 543 549 548

Ritchie

PK 11 11 10 15 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

K 75 60 57 53 42 42 42 39 41 41 41 41 41 41 41

1 72 80 60 62 50 40 40 40 37 39 39 39 39 39 39

2 60 71 74 64 68 55 44 44 44 41 43 43 43 43 43

3 87 65 64 76 66 70 57 45 45 45 42 44 44 44 44

4 92 86 65 71 74 64 68 56 44 44 44 41 43 43 43

5 87 93 88 71 71 74 64 68 56 44 44 44 41 43 43

subtotal 484 466 418 412 383 357 326 304 279 266 265 264 263 265 265



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j




Page A11


2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Smith

PK 4 - 7 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

K 63 76 50 62 52 53 53 48 51 51 51 51 51 51 511 80 66 82 51 66 55 56 56 51 54 54 54 54 54 54

2 76 80 62 82 47 61 51 52 52 47 50 50 50 50 50

3 76 80 78 68 77 44 57 48 49 49 44 47 47 47 47

4 90 71 82 77 64 72 41 54 45 46 46 41 44 44 44

5 82 88 73 77 75 62 70 40 53 44 45 45 40 43 43

subtotal 471 461 434 426 388 354 334 305 308 298 297 295 293 296 296

Thompson

PK 3 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - -

K 42 55 49 39 57 57 57 52 56 56 56 56 56 56 55

1 51 38 50 49 40 58 58 58 53 57 57 57 57 57 57

2 44 53 32 56 53 43 63 63 63 57 62 62 62 62 62

3 60 35 46 36 54 51 41 61 61 61 55 60 60 60 604 47 63 35 44 43 64 61 49 73 73 73 66 72 72 72

5 57 36 63 39 46 45 67 64 51 76 76 76 69 75 75

subtotal 304 286 275 263 293 318 347 347 357 380 379 377 376 382 381

Walter

PK 7 9 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

K 74 78 60 66 70 69 70 64 69 69 68 68 68 68 68

1 93 82 78 64 75 80 78 80 73 78 78 77 77 77 77

2 63 88 71 73 55 64 69 67 69 63 67 67 66 66 66

3 70 67 81 64 68 51 60 64 62 64 59 62 62 61 61

4 86 72 64 87 63 67 50 59 63 61 63 58 61 61 60

5 68 86 59 63 85 62 65 49 58 62 60 62 57 60 60

subtotal 461 482 418 422 422 399 398 389 400 403 401 400 397 399 398

Elementary

Division-wide

PK 70 75 68 81 67 67 62 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67

K 813 801 748 754 734 729 734 675 721 721 718 715 715 716 713

1 815 807 794 756 779 757 750 757 696 742 743 739 736 736 737

2 784 817 782 804 770 792 768 761 768 705 753 754 750 747 747

3 859 778 808 776 820 789 814 786 779 786 721 770 771 767 764

4 867 869 774 849 777 823 793 818 794 787 794 728 778 779 775

5 875 871 854 786 850 780 826 799 820 799 793 799 732 784 785

Total 5,083 5,018 4,828 4,806 4,797 4,737 4,747 4,663 4,645 4,607 4,589 4,572 4,549 4,596 4,588



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Middle School Cohorts


Actual Enrol lment Cohort Ratio s Select

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 2-Year

Total Grade 5 875 871 854 786 850

Auburn

6 204 191 197 204 175 22.3% 23.1% 22.9% 22.7% 22.8% 23.1%7 212 201 195 195 208 102.0% 100.5% 101.0% 100.4% 101.0% 100.5%

8 189 217 206 203 198 101.5% 102.8% 102.7% 102.6% 102.5% 102.8%

Auburn Total 605 609 598 602 581 96.5% 98.6% 98.5% 99.0% 100.5% 98.6%

Cedar Lee

6 231 222 216 203 184 23.4% 23.6% 24.0% 24.4% 24.8% 23.6%

7 208 229 230 207 206 101.5% 98.6% 100.3% 100.0% 99.5% 98.6%

8 214 211 222 232 216 104.4% 102.5% 100.6% 100.8% 100.1% 102.5%

Cedar Lee Total 653 662 668 642 606 94.4% 95.3% 97.2% 98.2% 97.8% 95.3%

Marshall

6 163 170 167 164 137 17.4% 18.4% 18.6% 18.8% 18.8% 18.4%

7 166 157 163 166 167 101.8% 100.6% 99.0% 98.3% 99.8% 100.6%

8 171 165 167 163 166 100.0% 100.0% 102.1% 101.4% 101.0% 100.0%

Marshall Total 500 492 497 493 470 95.3% 97.3% 98.5% 98.5% 100.3% 97.3%

Taylor

6 116 115 152 160 147 18.7% 18.7% 18.3% 17.0% 16.2% 18.7%

7 142 113 134 152 159 99.4% 99.7% 104.2% 102.8% 102.2% 99.7%

8 134 143 110 131 146 96.1% 96.9% 97.0% 98.0% 98.7% 96.9%

Taylor Total 392 371 396 443 452 102.0% 106.7% 106.7% 103.8% 101.7% 106.7%

Warrenton

6 157 193 157 153 132 16.8% 17.4% 17.6% 18.8% 18.6% 17.4%

7 176 172 185 165 145 94.8% 100.0% 98.4% 101.1% 103.1% 100.0% 8 157 173 174 187 160 97.0% 99.1% 99.8% 99.4% 100.1% 99.1%

Warrenton Total 490 538 516 505 437 86.5% 92.3% 93.5% 97.4% 99.2% 92.3%

Middle School Division-wide

6 871 891 889 884 775 98.6% 101.2% 101.5% 101.6% 101.3% 101.2%

7 904 872 907 885 885 100.1% 99.8% 100.5% 100.4% 101.0% 99.8%

8 865 909 879 916 886 100.1% 100.6% 100.6% 100.6% 100.6% 100.6%

Middle School Total 2,640 2,672 2,675 2,685 2,546 94.8% 97.6% 98.4% 99.1% 99.7% 97.6%



31/33


Enrollment by Middle School

Actual and Projec ted


Actual Enrol lment Proj ected Enro llment

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Auburn

6 204 191 197 204 175 196 180 191 185 190 185 183 185 169 181

7 212 201 195 195 208 176 197 181 192 186 190 186 184 186 170

8 189 217 206 203 198 214 181 203 186 197 191 196 191 189 191

Auburn Total 605 609 598 602 581 586 559 575 563 572 566 565 560 544 542

Cedar Lee

6 231 222 216 203 184 201 184 195 189 194 189 187 189 173 185

7 208 229 230 207 206 181 198 181 192 186 191 186 184 186 170

8 214 211 222 232 216 211 186 203 186 197 191 196 191 189 191

Cedar Lee Total 653 662 668 642 606 593 568 579 567 576 570 569 564 548 546

Marshall

6 163 170 167 164 137 156 143 152 147 150 147 146 147 134 1447 166 157 163 166 167 138 157 144 152 147 151 147 146 147 135

8 171 165 167 163 166 167 138 157 144 152 147 151 147 146 147

Marshall Total 500 492 497 493 470 461 438 452 443 450 445 444 441 428 426

Taylor

6 116 115 152 160 147 159 146 155 150 154 150 148 150 137 147

7 142 113 134 152 159 147 159 146 154 149 153 149 148 149 137

8 134 143 110 131 146 154 142 154 141 149 144 148 144 143 144

Taylor Total 392 371 396 443 452 460 447 454 445 452 447 446 442 429 428

Warrenton

6 157 193 157 153 132 148 136 144 139 143 139 138 139 127 1367 176 172 185 165 145 132 148 136 144 139 143 139 138 139 127

8 157 173 174 187 160 144 131 146 134 142 138 141 138 137 138

Warrenton Total 490 538 516 505 437 423 414 426 417 424 419 418 414 403 401

Middle Schools Division-wide

6 871 891 889 884 775 860 789 836 808 830 808 802 808 740 793

7 904 872 907 885 885 774 858 788 834 807 828 807 801 807 739

8 865 909 879 916 886 890 777 863 792 838 811 832 811 805 811

Midd le Sc ho ol To tal 2,640 2,672 2,675 2,685 2,546 2,523 2,425 2,486 2,434 2,475 2,447 2,441 2,420 2,352 2,343


Hi h S h l C h t


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High School Cohorts


Actual Enrol lment Cohort Ratio s Select

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 4-Year 5-Year 1-Year

Total Grade 8 865 909 879 916 886

Fauquier

9 301 334 336 326 352 38.4% 37.8% 37.5% 37.8% 37.4% 38.4%

10 297 270 328 324 309 94.8% 95.6% 96.5% 94.9% 95.1% 94.8%

11 315 270 250 307 302 93.2% 93.4% 93.2% 92.6% 92.0% 93.2%

12 296 326 277 267 315 102.6% 104.5% 103.9% 103.8% 104.3% 102.6%

Fauquier Total 1,209 1,200 1,191 1,224 1,278 104.4% 103.6% 102.2% 101.4% 100.4% 104.4%

Kettle Run

9 250 289 321 316 303 33.1% 34.5% 34.8% 34.4% 33.5% 33.1%

10 273 258 283 285 321 101.6% 95.1% 96.0% 97.5% 97.3% 101.6%

11 290 259 263 272 313 109.8% 103.0% 102.7% 100.7% 100.7% 109.8%12 224 280 267 310 288 105.9% 111.8% 108.9% 105.6% 105.6% 105.9%

Kettle Run Total 1,037 1,086 1,134 1,183 1,225 103.6% 103.9% 104.1% 104.2% 104.2% 103.6%

Liberty

9 364 317 315 324 324 35.4% 36.1% 35.6% 35.9% 37.2% 35.4%

10 303 324 305 312 308 95.1% 97.0% 96.8% 94.6% 93.8% 95.1%

11 292 265 295 279 279 89.4% 90.4% 90.7% 89.9% 89.5% 89.4%

12 313 319 289 271 298 106.8% 99.1% 102.3% 104.1% 105.2% 106.8%

Liberty Total 1,272 1,225 1,204 1,186 1,209 101.9% 100.2% 99.6% 98.7% 98.8% 101.9%

High Schools Division-wide

9 915 940 972 966 979 106.9% 108.4% 107.9% 108.1% 108.1% 106.9%10 873 852 916 921 938 97.1% 95.9% 96.4% 95.6% 95.3% 97.1%

11 897 794 808 858 894 97.1% 95.4% 95.2% 94.2% 93.8% 97.1%

12 833 925 833 848 901 105.0% 105.0% 105.0% 104.5% 105.0% 105.0%High School Total 3,518 3,511 3,529 3,593 3,712 103.3% 102.6% 101.9% 101.4% 101.0% 103.3%


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Enrollment by High School



Actual Enro llment Projected Enro llment

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25

Fauquier9 301 334 336 326 352 340 342 299 332 304 322 312 320 312 309

10 297 270 328 324 309 334 322 324 283 315 288 305 296 303 296

11 315 270 250 307 302 288 311 300 302 264 294 268 284 276 282

12 296 326 277 267 315 310 296 319 308 310 271 302 275 291 283

Fauquier Total 1,209 1,200 1,191 1,224 1,278 1,272 1,271 1,242 1,225 1,193 1,175 1,187 1,175 1,182 1,170

Kettle Run

9 250 289 321 316 303 293 294 257 285 262 277 268 275 268 266

10 273 258 283 285 321 308 298 299 261 290 266 281 272 279 272

11 290 259 263 272 313 353 338 327 328 287 318 292 309 299 306

12 224 280 267 310 288 331 374 358 346 347 304 337 309 327 317

Kettle Run Total 1,037 1,086 1,134 1,183 1,225 1,285 1,304 1,241 1,220 1,186 1,165 1,178 1,165 1,173 1,161

Liberty

9 364 317 315 324 324 313 315 275 305 280 297 287 294 287 285

10 303 324 305 312 308 308 298 299 261 290 266 282 273 279 273

11 292 265 295 279 279 275 275 266 267 233 259 238 252 244 249

12 313 319 289 271 298 298 294 294 284 285 249 277 254 269 261

Liberty Total 1,272 1,225 1,204 1,186 1,209 1,194 1,182 1,134 1,117 1,088 1,071 1,084 1,073 1,079 1,068

High Schools Division-wide

9 915 940 972 966 979 946 951 831 922 846 896 867 889 867 860

10 873 852 916 921 938 950 918 922 805 895 820 868 841 861 841

11 897 794 808 858 894 916 924 893 897 784 871 798 845 819 837

12 833 925 833 848 901 939 964 971 938 942 824 916 838 887 861High Schoo l To tal 3,518 3,511 3,529 3,593 3,712 3,751 3,757 3,617 3,562 3,467 3,411 3,449 3,413 3,434 3,399

Documents

Fauquier 10-Year Enrollment Projections