Final T.E Report

8/13/2019 Final T.E Report

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VAN LANG UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF TOURISM

TOURISM ECONOMICSM.S. Thu Anh Nguyen

THE IMPACT OF THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EXCHANGE RATES

BETWEEN VIETNAM DONG AND OTHER MAIN CURRENCIES ON

VIETNAM TOURISMTOURIST FLOWS

Tung Duong Le

D117038

K17KS5

November, 2013


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List of figures

Figure 1. Exchange Rates 2008-2012: VND vs. US Dollar ............................................................ 3

Figure 2. Exchange Rates 2008-2012: Vietnam dong vs. Euro....................................................... 4

Figure 3. Exchange Rates 2008-2012: Vietnam dong vs. Chinese Yuan ........................................ 5

Figure 4. US: Percentage Change in Exchange Rate and Arrivals .................................................. 7

Figure 5. France: Percentage Change in Exchange Rate and Arrivals ............................................ 8

Figure 6. China: Percentage Change in Exchange Rate and Arrivals ............................................. 9


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List of tables

Table 1. US Tourist Arrivals ........................................................................................................... 6

Table 2. French Tourist Arrivals .................................................................................................... 7

Table 3. Chinese Tourist Arrivals ................................................................................................... 8


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Table of Contents

List of figures .................................................................................................................................. i

List of tables................................................................................................................................... ii

1. Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1

2. Exchange Rate Fluctuations: 2008-2012................................................................................. 12.1. Overview ............................................................................................................................... 1

2.2. The US Dollar ....................................................................................................................... 2

2.3. The Euro ............................................................................................................................... 2

2.4. The Chinese Yuan ................................................................................................................. 2

3. Tourist Flows to Vietnam......................................................................................................... 6

3.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 6

3.2. Arrivals from the United States ............................................................................................ 6

3.3. Arrivals from France ............................................................................................................. 7

3.4. Arrivals from China .............................................................................................................. 8

4. Effects of Currency Changes on Travel Patterns................................................................... 9

4.1. Key Determinants of Tourist Flows ...................................................................................... 9

4.2. Key Exchange Rate Impacts ............................................................................................... 11

4.3. Impacts of Currency Changes in Vietnam .......................................................................... 12

5. Recommendations.................................................................................................................... 12

6. Conclusions.............................................................................................................................. 13

References..................................................................................................................................... 14


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1. Introduction

There have been numerous studies undertaken over the years regarding the impact of

exchange rates on tourism flows between countries. These studies all have very different

outcomes, and there do not appear to be any common conclusions. However, in general it is

widely accepted that changes in exchange rates do have an impact on visitor flows to various

extents.

This study examines exchange rate changes between the Vietnam dong and three other

key currencies: the US dollar, Euro, and Chinese yuan, over the five recent year period 2008-

2012, to analyze the effect of the exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows to

Vietnam.

During the period of analysis covered by this paper (2008-2012) there has been a

considerable weakening of the Vietnam dong against all three of the currencies of the source

markets selected for analysis, thereby, in theory, making Vietnam more cheaper to visit for

Americans, French and Chinese. If a weak Vietnam dong does indeed encourage tourists visiting

Vietnam, then it is important to address this issue.

2. Exchange Rate Fluctuations: 2008-2012

2.1. Overview

The value of one currency against another is known as the exchange rate, and discussions

about exchange rate movements can involve a number of different terms that in fact refer to the

same thing. For example, the statements the dollar is depreciating against the Vietnam dong

and the Vietnam dong is strengthening against the dollar mean the same thing, but have

opposite implications for Americans and those Vietnamese living in Vietnam. An exchange rate

quotation is given by stating the number of units of a price currency can be bought in terms of a

unit currency. For example, in a quotation that says the Vietnam dong-US Dollar exchange rate is

0.00005 dollars per Vietnam dong, the price currency is the dollar and the unit currency is the

Vietnam dong.

For the tourist, if their currency is strengthening against another currency, it enables them

to buy more of that currency with one unit of their own currency. Therefore, if a unit currency is


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strengthening (or appreciating) - i.e. if the currency is becoming more valuable - then the

exchange rate number increases. Conversely if the price currency is strengthening, the exchange

rate number decreases and the unit currency is depreciating.

Although there have been fluctuations over the period 2008-2012, generally speaking the

Vietnam dong has weakened against all three currencies being analysed (the US dollar, Euro and

Chinese yuan). This means that for residents in these three countries, they will need to spend less

of their own currency to buy a VND. This would appear to indicate, therefore, that travelling to

Vietnam has become cheaper for these residents. This is usually, although not necessarily, true as

will be discussed later.

2.2. The US Dollar

The average exchange rate of the US dollar to the Vietnam dong in the first quarter of

2008 was highest at 0.000063 (that is, USD 0.000063 bought VND 1.00). By December 2012,

the average exchange rate of the US dollar to the Vietnam dong was 0.000048 (that is, USD

0.000048 bought VND 1.00), a fall of 23.8%. During this period, the Vietnam dong bottomed out

in November 2012 when the exchange rate hit an average of USD 0.00047 to VND 1.00, a

decrease of 25.4%. The fluctuating exchange rates between the US dollar and the Vietnam dong

are shown in Figure 01.

2.3. The Euro

There has been a steady depreciating of the Vietnam dong against the euro over the

period 2008-2012. In January 2008, EUR 0.000043 bought VND 1.00, whilst by December

2012, EUR 0.000037 bought VND 1.00, a decline of 14%. The fluctuating exchange rates

between the euro and the Vietnam dong are shown in Figure 02.

2.4. The Chinese Yuan

In Jan 2008, CNY 0.000453 bought VND 1.00, however by December 2012, the Vietnam

dong had weakened significantly, with CNY 0.000299 buying VND 1.00, a fall of 34%. This hit

bottom in November 2012 when CNY 0.000293 bought VND 1.00, a decrease of 35.3%. The

exchange rate of the yuan and the Vietnam dong can be seen in Figure 03.


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Figure 1. Exchange Rates 2008-2012: VND vs. US Dollar

Source: http://www.ozforex.com.au/

0

0.00001

0.00002

0.00003

0.00004

0.00005

0.00006

0.00007

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Rate: US Dollars to buy 1

VND

Number of US Dollar (USD) required to buy 1 VND

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan 0.000063 0.000057 0.000054 0.000051 0.000048

Feb 0.000063 0.000058 0.000054 0.000051 0.000048

Mar 0.000063 0.000057 0.000052 0.000049 0.000048Apr 0.000062 0.000057 0.000054 0.000048 0.000048

May 0.000062 0.000057 0.000053 0.000048 0.000048

Jun 0.000061 0.000057 0.000053 0.000049 0.000048

Jul 0.000059 0.000057 0.000052 0.000049 0.000048

Aug 0.000060 0.000057 0.000052 0.000048 0.000048

Sep 0.000060 0.000056 0.000051 0.000048 0.000048

Oct 0.000060 0.000056 0.000051 0.000048 0.000048

Nov 0.000059 0.000056 0.000051 0.000048 0.000047

Dec 0.000059 0.000054 0.000051 0.000048 0.000048

Ave 0.000061 0.000056 0.000052 0.000049 0.000048

0.000056

0.000058

0.00006

0.000062

0.000064

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

US Dollars to buy 1 VND (2008)

0.000052

0.000054

0.000056

0.000058

0.00006

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.000046

0.000048

0.00005

0.000052

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.000048

0.00005

0.000052

0.000054

0.000056

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.0000465

0.000047

0.0000475

0.000048

0.0000485

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec



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Figure 2. Exchange Rates 2008-2012: Vietnam dong vs. Euro

Number of Euro required to buy 1 VND

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan 0.000043 0.000043 0.000038 0.000038 0.000037

Feb 0.000043 0.000045 0.000039 0.000037 0.000036

Mar 0.000041 0.000044 0.000039 0.000035 0.000036

Apr 0.000039 0.000043 0.000040 0.000033 0.000036May 0.000040 0.000042 0.000042 0.000034 0.000037

Jun 0.000039 0.000040 0.000043 0.000034 0.000038

Jul 0.000038 0.000040 0.000041 0.000034 0.000039

Aug 0.000040 0.000040 0.000040 0.000034 0.000039

Sep 0.000042 0.000038 0.000039 0.000035 0.000037

Oct 0.000045 0.000038 0.000037 0.000035 0.000037

Nov 0.000046 0.000037 0.000037 0.000035 0.000037

Dec 0.000044 0.000037 0.000039 0.000036 0.000037

Ave 0.000042 0.000040 0.000040 0.000035 0.000037Source:http://www.ozforex.com.au/

0

0.00001

0.00002

0.00003

0.00004

0.00005

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Rate: Euros to buy 1 VND

0

0.00002

0.00004

0.00006

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Euro to buy 1 VND (2008)

0

0.00002

0.00004

0.00006

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.00003

0.000035

0.00004

0.000045

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.00003

0.000032

0.000034

0.000036

0.0000380.00004

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.000034

0.000036

0.000038

0.00004

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

http://www.ozforex.com.au/http://www.ozforex.com.au/http://www.ozforex.com.au/


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Figure 3. Exchange Rates 2008-2012: Vietnam dong vs. Chinese Yuan

Number of Chinese Yuan (CNY) required to buy 1 VND

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan 0.000453 0.000393 0.000370 0.000338 0.000331

Feb 0.000449 0.000395 0.000366 0.000333 0.000301

Mar 0.000445 0.000393 0.000358 0.000321 0.000303

Apr 0.000434 0.000388 0.000371 0.000313 0.000302May 0.000433 0.000387 0.000359 0.000314 0.000303

Jun 0.000420 0.000388 0.000359 0.000314 0.000305

Jul 0.000406 0.000388 0.000355 0.000314 0.000305

Aug 0.000412 0.000389 0.000353 0.000309 0.000305

Sep 0.000412 0.000382 0.000346 0.000307 0.000303

Oct 0.000410 0.000382 0.000343 0.000305 0.000300

Nov 0.000403 0.000379 0.000341 0.000302 0.000293

Dec 0.000402 0.000369 0.000341 0.000302 0.000299

Ave 0.000423 0.000385 0.000355 0.000314 0.000302Source: http://www.ozforex.com.au/

0

0.0001

0.0002

0.0003

0.0004

0.0005

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average Rate: Chinese Yuan to buy 1 VND

0.00035

0.0004

0.00045

0.0005

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Chinese Yuan to buy 1 VND (2008)

0.00034

0.00036

0.00038

0.0004

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.00034

0.00036

0.00038

0.0004

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.00032

0.00034

0.00036

0.00038

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec


0.00026

0.00028

0.0003

0.00032

0.00034

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec



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3. Tourist Flows to Vietnam

3.1. Introduction

In order to assess whether the weakening of the Vietnam dong has had an effect on the

flow of tourists to Vietnam, tourist flows from each of the three key-currency countries have been

analysed: that is the United States, France and China.

3.2. Arrivals from the United States

Table 1. US Tourist Arrivals

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total 417,198 403,930 430,993 439,872 443,826

Source: GSO - http://www.gso.gov.vn/

Arrivals from the United States to Vietnam declined from 417.2 thousand in 2008 to

403.9 thousand in 2009 a decrease of 2.6 %. Arrivals then started to keep growing through

2010, 2011 and reached 443.8 thousand in 2012, as shown in Table 01.

Outbound tourist statistics from the United States over the period 2008-2012 are heavily

influenced by the Great Recession which is an ongoing marked global economic decline that

began in December 2007 and took a particularly sharp downward turn in September 2008. Such

major global events make it very difficult to identify more subtle influences of travel behaviour

such as those generated by exchange rates.

However, Figure 04. (below) shows percentage changes (year on year) for the exchange

rate between the US dollar and the Vietnam dong,, as well as changes in the number of tourist

arrivals in Vietnam. If there is a close correlation between Vietnam dong exchange rate changes

and tourist flows to Vietnam, then the two bars on the chart should point in the opposite

directions. In Figure 04., although the exchange rate improves considerably for those in the US,

there is a slight decline in tourist arrivals in 2009. Howerver, there appears to be a correlation

between the exchange rate and Vietnam tourist arrivals in 2010, 2011 and 2012.


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Figure 4. US: Percentage Change in Exchange Rate and Arrivals

Therefore, for the United States, the link between the exchange rate and tourist arrivals in

Vietnam does appear quite strong, although the rather extreme global events over the period

2008-2012 are likely to have masked any obvious effects the depreciating Vietnam dong may

have otherwise had.

3.3. Arrivals from France

Arrivals to Vietnam from France have increased from 182.0 thousand in 2008 to 219.7

thousand in 2012, and average growth rate of 4.02% per annum

Table 2. French Tourist Arrivals

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total 182,048 174,525 199,351 211,444 219,721


In 2009, the euro strengthened slightly, but the number of tourists to Vietnam declined.

Conversely, there was a considerable rise in the number of French tourists to Vietnam while the

exchange rate leveled off in 2010. Then this number kept growing in the later years even the

exchange rate went up over 5% in 2012; or the exchange rate went down nearly 13%, which

correlate to what might be expected.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2009 2010 2011 2012

Exchange Rate

Vietnam arrivals


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Figure 5. France: Percentage Change in Exchange Rate and Arrivals

3.4. Arrivals from China

The Approved Destination Status (ADS) is a program developed by the Chinese

government to establish a well-managed, orderly and controlled system of travel abroad for its

citizens. Essentially, when a country achieves ADS, they can expect to experience an increase in

the number of Chinese visitors who travel for leisure purposes. Vietnam was awarded in 2000

and therefore Vietnam has been experiencing a significant increase in Chinese arrivals. Over the

period 2008-2012 arrivals from China in Vietnam grew by an average of 25.6% per annum.

Table 3. Chinese Tourist Arrivals

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total 650.055 527.610 905.360 1.416.804 1.428.693


Improved living standards and prosperity is also enabling more Chinese to travel abroad.

In another hand, this has been due to the efffectiveness of the Vietnams tourism promotion

campaiges by promoting discounted airfares, increasing engagement with large Chinese travel

agencies,etc. Figure 06. clearly shows that despite a decline of 18% in arrivals in 2009, growth

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012

Exchange Rate

Vietnam arrivals


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has been considerable together with the background of a weakening Vietnam dong, although in

2012 the trend was reversed sharply.

Figure 6. China: Percentage Change in Exchange Rate and Arrivals

4. Effects of Currency Changes on Travel Patterns

4.1. Key Determinants of Tourist Flows

It is important to remember that the factors that affect tourist flows are highly complex.

Whilst fluctuations in exchange rates affect the price of tourist trips, other important price factors

include the cost of living and cost of tourism services in the destination, and the cost of

transportation between the origin and destination. Many studies have tried to evaluate the

separate effect of these three components (exchange rate, cost of living/services, and price of

transport) on the basis that tourists might respond differently to each.

In particular, it has often been suggested that tourists are well informed on exchange rates

but have much less knowledge of price levels in the destination they are visiting. Tourists may

base their decisions prior to departure on knowledge of exchange rates, but might alter their

intended length of stay and level of spending on arrival as they adjust to local currency prices.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012

Exchange rate

Vietnam Arrivals

(% changes)


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Different market segments and different kinds of travellers, in terms of the purpose of

travel, will be affected differently by exchange rates both in terms of their sensitivity to exchange

rate changes and the time it takes for changes in exchange rates to impact on their travel

decisions.

For example, a Thailand backpacker on a fixed budget who is planning on travelling to

Vietnam for a holiday might be put off by a highly valued Vietnam dong up to two years before

they are actually likely to make the trip to Vietnam .

A business traveller is much less likely to worry about the value of the exchange rate but

the reason for their travel may be affected by the exchange rate. For example, if the Vietnam

dong is highly valued, say around USD 0.000076 per VND, a US importer may not be especially

interested in travelling to Vietnam to arrange importing Vietnamese products. On the other hand,

a US exporter may be encouraged to come to Vietnam because their products are competitively

priced at the lower exchange rate. It is very hard to know which effect will offset the other.

Similarly a fall in the value of the Vietnam dong would encourage overseas investors to

come to Vietnam in search of inexpensive investment opportunities.

That said, the effect of the exchange rate on travel demand may not be directly related to

the price of travel or the price of Vietnamese products and assets. Rather it may be a simple

income effect. For example, while some Cambodian people may not think about the cost ofshopping when they holiday in Vietnam, a lift in the value of the Cambodian riel could mean that

they have more money to buy a holiday because the cost of lots of imported products may get

cheaper. For example the question of buying a DVD player or going on holiday or visiting the

relatives might become a question of AND not OR when the Vietnam dong depreciates.

Of course those kinds of income effects are likely to take longer to make an impact than a

simple price effect, simply because the price of a DVD player wont change overnight and even

when it does it may be some time before households notice or act on the change. However we

would expect simple price effects to act more quickly (though not necessarily quickly) because

spending power will go down overnight and people who are planning a trip will observe that

effect quite quickly because they are generally looking.


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The speed at which price effects impact on travel demand can also be slowed by the fact

that inbound and outbound travel operators purchase packages and enter into contracts ahead of

time. That is, a package deal purchased today may related to the level of exchange rates

prevailing a year ago and so the change in the exchange rate a year ago will have a lagged impact

on travel demand.

Furthermore there is a lag in the impact from exchange rate effects that can arise from

people booking their travel well in advance of when they travel.

Other travel determinants, such as unexpected events, can cause substantial changes in the

tourism economyand there are several key examples over the period 2008-2012. These events

(such as The Great Recession, Avian influenz,etc) can have such a significant impact of tourist

flows that they obscure more subtle changes caused by shifting exchange rates.

The key point in all of this is that the varying impacts of exchange rates on travel demand,

in terms of the extent of impact and the time it takes for a change in exchange rates to have an

impact, means that the dynamics of aggregate travel demand may represent a multitude of

offsetting dynamics within market segments and in so doing hide a lot of the effects that are

actually taking place.

4.2. Key Exchange Rate Impacts

Previous studies have identified a number of impacts of unfavourable exchange rates.These include:

Less travel abroad or to countries with a different currency.

Travel to different destinations: exchange rate fluctuations tend to have a greater

effect on short haul travel (and even more so on day trips) than long haul travel. Countries

that attract a high proportion of long haul tourists (such as Australia) have observed that the

impact of exchange rate fluctuations is limited. Whilst the exchange rate can have an impact

on how much money is spent at the destination, the actual travel decision, which is generally

made months in advance, tends not to be affected.

Tourists are more likely to reduce their length of stay or average daily expenditure

rather than decide not to visit a destination.


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On the contrary, various reverse effects have been observed resulting from a favourable

exchange rate. These include:

Spending on additional goods and services.

A shift in travel and spending from other destinations.

Attraction of new tourists that is people who would not have travelled otherwise.

Attraction of border shoppers (persons living close to another country travelling for

the purpose of shopping).

4.3. Impacts of Currency Changes in Vietnam

The analysis of the exchange rates and tourist flows over the period 2008-2012 in Section

3 of this Paper shows that there is a conclusive evidence that the increasing weakness of theVietnam dong over the period had a positive impact on inbound tourism from the key source

markets identified.

5. Recommendations

Whilst the national tourism administrations may not be able to control exchange rates,

there are various policies and procedures they could put in place to minimise the effects of a

strong Vietnam dong and maximise the effects of a weak one.

Minimise the effects of a strong Vietnam dong:

Target those markets that are less sensitive to exchange rates. These are typically

business travellers, long haul holiday tourists, and those tourists buying high quality

products (in particular tailor-made trips and five star hotel seekers these are less

likely to be concerned about the exchange rate).

Increase marketing activities whilst the exchange rate is favourable. Whilst astrong currency means that inbound tourist may be discouraged from travelling, it

does provide the opportunity for the tourism authorities of a country, as well as the

private sector, to buy more advertising space and other promotional activities in the

markets they are attempting to attract for an unchanged amount of Vietnam dong (or


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alternatively buy an unchanged amount of advertising space or promotional

activities for fewer Vietnam dong).

Do not rely on one key market. By developing a broad range of source markets for

tourists, the overall impact on the tourism industry due to an adverse exchange rate

with one or two other countries will be minimised.

Make the destination unique. A destination that is unique will be less affected by

changes to exchange rates than destinations that differ little from other alternatives.

Maximise the effects of a weak Vietnam dong:

Attract border crossers and day-trippers (or the short break market) essentially

these will be residents of the countries such as Lao, Cambodia, through

targeted marketing campaigns highlighting the benefits of shopping and leisure

trips.

6. Conclusions

This research has lead to a conclusion that tourism in Vietnam is highly exposed to the

influences of movements in the value of the Vietnam dong.

At an aggregate level, changes in the exchange rate have very little influence on visitor

numbers. That is not to say that changes in exchange rates do not drastically influence the growth

path of the tourism industry, because they do. Visitor numbers are not especially responsive to

exchange rates, but variety of other factors. The prior underpinning this analysis is that an

decrease in the value of the Vietnam dong will attract travellers who might find Vietnam a more

cheaper place to visit. However, that prior is not thought to hold in all cases.


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