Five-Year Plan CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION (CSO) AFGHANISTAN

Five-Year Plan

CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION (CSO)AFGHANISTAN

by: Abdul Rahman Ghafoori President General, CSO

PARIS21 Seminar Meetings , 5 – 7 November, Paris

The war caused wide spread destruction in Afghanistan

Currently, CSO is hardly comparable with NSOs in the neighboring countries

Capacity building and institutional development are seriously needed

These observations were also contained/made by:

Statistical Master Plan, UNFPA consultants, and International Census Advisory Board (ICAB)

INTRODUCTION

CSO has to respond to the growing needs for data particularly the Afghanistan National Development Strategies (ANDS) and MDGs

This will prepare CSO to conduct the Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (APHC) in 2010.

Also, it is expected to enable CSO to stand on its own feet while minimizing its dependency on International Consultants

INTRODUCTION

FRAMEWORK

Institutional Development & Strengthening CSO Capacity Building & Enhancing its Statistical

Capacity

2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census

INTRODUCTION

Institutional development and capacity building will be undertaken in the following areas:

ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

I. Institutional Development and Capacity Building

Institutional restructuring by itself will be insufficient for creation of an effective statistical system in the country.

It will demand programs that promote organizational development, apart from investments in physical infrastructure and development of appropriate statistical infrastructure

A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

1. User-producer relations workshops in October 2008

High-level Government officials, representatives of the private sector, donors, and CSO managers participated.

The key underlying themes were: changed role of statistics in a market economy, role of various stakeholders, safeguards for maintaining the integrity of the

statistical system, importance of priority setting, and adoption of international standards and best

practices

A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (cont’n)

2. Preparation of Directory of Statistical outputs

This will be done in consultation with different ministries and data producing agencies through a review of the range of statistics presently with different agencies and international organizations.

The Directory will help identify:

data gaps; over-lapping and duplications; data collected but not used in publications.

Also, it will provide the basic building blocks for the preparation of the proposed Metadata and database


3. Review of Statistics Law

The Statistics Law needs further revision. It was found out by CSO and recommendations incorporated in the Statistical Master Plan. Further recommendations made by UNFPA consultants

Some of the recommendations made : Inclusion of some statistical terms for clarity Strengthening CSO as the clearing house of any data collection activityInclusion of some tasks (Compilation of National accounts, Computation of Consumer Price Indices, Preparation of Input- Output (I-O) tables)


4. Administrative re-structuring of CSO

At present, the structure of CSO is being streamlined to contribute to the overall institutional strengthening.

5. Observational Tours for Senior Managers

The senior management team at CSO shall visit the statistical offices of selected neighboring countries to obtain first hand insights into the experience of these countries in managing the process of statistical reform


6. Short-TermTrainings

CSO has identified a number of in-house trainings in:

Basic Mathematics/Statistics Sampling Design Statistical Data Analysis/Software 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA 93) Socio-Demographic and Economic Indicators Enterprise/Establishment Business Indicators Technical Report Writing Basic Computer Management Monitoring and Evaluation Financial and Budget Management English Language


7. Academic Training

CSO staff need to be well equipped with sufficient background on demography, statistics, economics, and IT

8. On-the-job training (assignment of staff to statistical offices of neighboring countries)

Detailing CSO staff to statistical offices of other countries is another option by which the staff will learn-by-doing (on-the-job training)

A. ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (concluded)

1. Development and Implementation of Household Master Sample

With the listing of households to serve as the frame for household surveys, and for several other surveys which starts next year, having only one sampling design will be cost efficient

B.STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

2. Improvement of population estimates/ projections

At present, estimates of population are computed using the population growth rate, on the assumption that the population dynamics in the future will be the same as in the past.

However, there is a need to incorporate demographic changes in fertility, migration, and mortality in the estimation of population since in the post conflict situations, demographic changes are significant

B.STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT(cont’n)

3. Development of Sampling Design for IBES

There is a need to re-design the sampling methodology for IBES to be more responsive to the changing structure of the economy

CSO plans to replace business registers with Census of Establishments and regular updating of these establishments through the Listing of Establishments

4. Updating the List of Establishments

The list will serve as the sampling frame for future establishment surveys

B.STATISTICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (concluded)

1. Improvement of CSO Website

Website as a medium for data dissemination and information campaign needs updating

2. Installation of Internet facilities in selected cities

This is very important in any statistical office

Initial installation will be in major seven cities

C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

3. Improvement of CSO Library

CSO needs to have a system where data could be stored and properly accessed.

Library needs improvement (books already outdated; small space; unorganized system)

Establishment of the Training Institute crucially requires a good library for its students

4. Re-construction of CSO Printing Press

CSO is printing a lot of instructional and dissemination materials.

With several data collection activities to be conducted, CSO’s in-house printing will be very cost efficient.

C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (cont’n)

5. Construction of buildings for 28 Provincial Statistics Offices

Field offices play a very important role in data collection. Thus, they need to be provided with appropriate and useful facilities.

At present, six out of the 34 Provincial Statistics Offices are permanently housed in CSO buildings.

6. Transportation Needs

Transportation facilities for Department Directors, PSOs, and District Officers

Maintenance and repair of vehicles


7. Renovation of CSO Kabul Office

CSO building in Kabul is already old and received damages during the war. Thus, it requires renovation.

This will provide a much better and encouraging working environment

Some of the priority areas for renovation are the washrooms, re-painting of the buildings, and concreting of CSO premises


8. Construction of Building for Statistical Training Institute

The Statistical Training Institute is envisioned to provide all statistical training needs of the country’s statistical system, not only for CSO but for other government offices as well.

The building for the Statistical Training Institute will also house the CSO Library and Printing Press

C. ICT AND PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEV’T (concluded)

A number of surveys and three censuses are to

be conducted during the proposed period of five years.

These activities respond to the data needs and enhance visibility of CSO as data producer, and increase the experience of CSO staff while creating confidence in them.

II. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity

A. Household Sample Surveys

1. Survey on Participation of Women and Men in Decision Making

Policy makers, administrators, planners, and international organizations will be provided with comprehensive and up-to-date baseline data on women and men at the decision-making levels.

The data can be used for promoting gender equality and empowerment of women.

II. Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity (cont’n)

2. Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS)

The survey shall collect information about health of children and women such as:

immunization coverage of children below two years,

Vitamin A supplementation of pregnant and lactating women and of children below two years; education and work of children; and child protection.


3. Labor Force Survey

The data will be used to assess employment status, occupation, and industry structure in the country.

In order to capture seasonality in employment, visits to the households will be done, initially every six months and then quarterly for the years to come

II.Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity (cont’n)

4. Household Income and Expenditure Survey

Data will be used to assess poverty situation in the country, income inequality, sources of income, spending patterns of the households, and factors affecting income and expenditure.

Survey results will provide benchmark information to update weights in the estimation of consumer price index, and inputs for the national accounts.


5. Child Labor Survey

The survey will provide data on the extent of involvement of children in labour related activities.

This will also include data on children’s education, living arrangement, and problems children are facing in their work environment including their exposure to health hazards and reasons for engaging in such environment.


6. Demographic and Health Survey

It shall collect information on:

• reproductive health; •mortality (infant and under-five mortality rates); •fertility and factors that determine the level and trends; •knowledge and attitudes of women and men about sexually transmitted infections and HIV/AIDS; and •family health, including immunizations, prevalence and treatment of diarrhea and other diseases among children under five, antenatal visits, assistance at delivery, and breastfeeding.


7. National Risk and Vulnerability Survey

Objectives:

•to collect information at community and household level to better understand livelihoods of Kuchi, rural and urban households throughout the country, and •to determine the types of risks and vulnerabilities they face.

8. Census of Agriculture

Objective: to provide agricultural information such as number of agricultural operators, crops planted, area planted/harvested, etc.


B. Establishment Statistics

1. Integrated Business Establishment Survey

It will provide information on the size or employment, revenue, inputs used, production, and other enterprise related information.

The data will be used as inputs to national accounts, GDP, and other enterprise-based indicators.

2. Census of Establishments

It will provide a complete listing of all establishments in the country, including their sizes, revenue, production, etc.

II.Strengthening CSO and Enhancing its Statistical Capacity (concluded)

1. Updating of Household Listing and Enumeration Areas

Serves as baseline information when estimating the 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (APHC) workload of enumerators and controllers of the census.

To establish some quality checks for the 2010 APHC. That is, to eliminate over and under reporting of the population

Serve as a frame for the socio-demographic surveys that will be conducted by CSO later on.

III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census

2. Setting up of Regional Units and District Offices

The International Regional Advisers will be in-charge of the smooth conduct of the census in the assigned regions in accordance with international standards. They will take care of publicity, assessment of security, coordinate with local officials, and conduct of capacity building for CSO Provincial Staff. One of the recommendations of the ICAB is the gradual setting up of permanent District Offices.These are vital in ensuring proper coordination of activities at the district level as they are much closer to local officials.

III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (cont’n)

3. Pilot census

Pilot census is a full dress rehearsal of the census procedures and materials.

This will be conducted in order to test if all census materials such as questionnaires and manuals in all languages, and procedures such as recruitment, training, processing, tabulation and analysis, are error-free.

III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (cont’n)

4. Publicity Campaign

A massive information campaign is required to:

• make CSO censuses and other activities known to the people

• solicit cooperation from respondents.

It would involve the participation of the local people – Mullahs, village heads, and other influential people.

III. 2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing Census (concluded)

Major Components of CSO Five-Year Plan by Estimated Budget

In Million Dollar

2010 Afghanistan Population and Housing CensusActivity by Estimated Budget

In Million Dollar

Thank You

Documents

Five-Year Plan CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION (CSO) AFGHANISTAN