Foreign Tourists Arrivals 240510 Ppt Lower Version

8/7/2019 Foreign Tourists Arrivals 240510 Ppt Lower Version

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A few Issues Highlighted in thispresentation

Inflow from different regions of the world

Predominance of a few regions Seasonality in tourist inflow

Estimated Total Foreign Tourist Arrivalto India during 1010

Year Most

likely

scenario

Optimistic

scenario

Pessimistic

scenario

2010 5532180 5854723 5224443


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A Few Observations

Couple of regions, West Europe and North Americaare the major source regions.

These two regions account for about 70% of thetotal inbound tourists to India

West Europe is the region which contributes about45 to 50% of the total tourists

However, the gap between West Europe and NorthAmerica in terms of number and share to totaltourists is reducing over time consistently, thoughthe gap is still significantly large.


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A Few Observations

Amongst the lesser important region in terms ofinbound tourists to India, South East Asia and EastAsia are coming upSignificantly.

A close look at the numbers suggest that asignificant change in foreign tourist arrivals havetaken place from 2002/03 onwards. This is true foralmost every source region.

Opening up of the economy and initiatives towardspromoting Indian tourism are the major reasons

Incredible India campaign has also played asignificant positive role.


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A Few Observations

If one looks at year to year

change in number of numberof tourists from differentregions, an erratic movementcan be identified. This involves several internalas well as external reasonswhich includes macro-economic situations of thesource regions coupled withinternal factors such as

terrorist activities as well assome policy issues.

The direction of growth froalmost every source country ismore or less similar though in

varying degree.


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Seasonality in arrivals of foreign tourists

Foreign tourists arrivals in India is characterized with marked

seasonal differences The data on inbound tourists arrivals to India are available for four

quarters of the year, viz., 1) January to March,2) April to June, 3)July to September and 4) October to December

For every region under study, it was observed that the quarterOctober to December received maximum number of inboundtourists followed by January to March. This trend has prevailed for

through out the time span reported in this presentation. In case of a couple regions, West Europe, South East Asia and East

Asia, number of tourist arrivals are almost similar during these twoquarters.

Perhaps the most important reason behind concentration ofinbound tourists during these two quarters are the weather,especially for liesure tourism purpose.

The only exception is West Asia, where July to September quarter ishigher than other quarters significantly. Perhaps, this is dominatedmore by the business tourists compared to leisure tourists.


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For Whom These Trends are Importan

Hotels and other accommodation relatedindustries

Logistics and transport operators

People involved with cultural and in productionprocess of other local products like handicraftsetc.

Researchers to understand the tourism trajectory

And, of course the planning professionals


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What can be done with this data

Likely foreign tourist arrivals can be projectedusing proper econometric forecasting technique/s

Forecasting should take care of macro-economicconditions of the source countries as well as India

While forecasting, seasonality aspects need toconsidered. Recently I forecasted annual inboundtourists to India for 2010 through 2015. Instead of

a panel of quarterly data for several years orpulled quarterly data, annual tourist data fromsource regions proved to be a better option.

Apart from non-availability of several selectmacro-economic data, huge variation across the


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What can be done with this data

However, effort for forecasting tourist arrivalsfrom source regions for particular quarters can beworth doing from planning point of view of severalstakeholders, especially, hospitality and transportoperators

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Foreign Tourists Arrivals 240510 Ppt Lower Version